“阻隔式”与“引入式”经济增长方式

在世界范围内实现生产的专一化和分工的细化是一种必然趋势。由“阻隔式”向“引入式”经济增长方式转换是发展中国家利用发达国家现有的领先科技成果,融入发达国家间的分工协作体系和产业内贸易,实现本国经济高增长的现实选择。     

Evaluating the potentials of technical cooperation among developing countries

The main purpose of this article is to show that “there are optimal partners for technology transfer to be most effective,” and for many countries this may, in fact, mean looking for “technical cooperation among developing countries (TCDC).” In this article a technology transfer model has been presented, in relatively simple mathematical form, which incorporates both the dynamic and the spatial aspects of the innovation diffusion process. The existing models of technological change at a particular location, i.e., technological substitution, are shown to be special cases of the developed time-level model of technology transfer. The model has been applied to evaluate the international transfer potentials of the “computerization” technology. Optimal partners are identified and the prospects for TCDC has been evaluated. Model usefulness and related policy implications have been discussed in detail.     

Three Decades After James Street’s “The Institutionalist Theory of Economic Development”: What Does Institutional Approach to Economic Development Mean Today?

James Street’s article, “The Institutionalist Theory of Economic Development,” (1987) is a masterpiece of institutionalist research on economic development. The thirty-year anniversary of its publishing is an invitation to review what the institutional approach to economic development means today. This article, therefore, aims to present a historical survey of works published in the Journal of Economic Issues (JEI) on economic development.     

地区金融发展与经济增长的典型相关分析

从金融发展理论产生的背景和所使用的分析工具上,寻找金融发展理论与实证研究产生分歧的原因。首先,从发达国家的利益出发,用根据发达国家的经济条件和经验得出来的西方主流经济理论来研究发展中国家的金融发展问题是其主要原因;其次,有关金融发展计量分析工具没有考虑金融风险因素。根据中国国情,从金融生态的角度,引入典型相关模型,探讨金融发展与经济增长的互动关系,建立了分析金融发展与经济增长互动关系的指标体系。     

中国“两大奇迹”形成逻辑的政治经济学阐释*

在党的百年奋斗历程中，创造了大规模、快速的经济增长，形成了社会领域长期稳定发展的“两大奇迹”。“两大奇迹”的形成原因是：坚持党的领导是创造“两大奇迹”的政治保证；坚持科学理论指导是“两大奇迹”创造的思想保证；社会主义制度和国家治理体系是“两大奇迹”创造的制度保证；党领导下人民创造力的发挥是“两大奇迹”创造的动力保证。从政治经济学的理论逻辑来看，“两大奇迹”形成的理论逻辑是党领导下的国家能力与规模化市场创造的结合造就了经济增长的奇迹，在经济快速增长所奠定的经济基础上形成了社会长期稳定的奇迹。“两大奇迹”历史经验是党领导下国家能力的培育，中央政府与地方政府的协同互补，发展规划与市场机制的结合，选择性产业政策、功能性产业政策与普惠性产业政策的协调。在第二个百年续写“两个奇迹”，并创造高质量发展奇迹需要从中长期发展视角判断未来发展的趋势，继续推动国家与市场的共同演进，重塑高质量发展的增长体系，充分释放内需潜力，确立“以人为本”的经济发展模式。     

The long term impact of economic development in developed countries on developing countries since 1820

The linkages between the economic development of developed and developing countries are analyzed historically. The analysis is divided into epochs, distinguished by global trade regimes and by common characteristics of long term economic growth. The break throughs in long distance transport technology which occured during the industrial revolution created a global economy in which the rythm of economic activity in developing economies became linked to that of developed economies. The major transmission mechanisms were international trade, international migration and international capital flows. Exports were the main engine of growth in developing countries. But the effects of export expansion varied across countries. The speed of transmission of the industrial revolution to developing countries depended on their institutional readiness; countries with most developed capitalist institutions in factor markets were the first to develop. The extent of diffusion of the benefits of growth from export expansion within developing countries also depended on the nature of their institutions, both economic and political. Finally, policies with respect to international trade, investment and agriculture were also critical to the speed and diffusion of economic development.The research underlying this paper is the result of a twentyfive year collaboration with Professor Cynthia Taft Morris. She is indebted to the World Bank for financing the research in this paper as part of the background studies for the World Development Report 1991. She is also indebted to Sherman Robinson for his comments.     

The international diffusion of biotechnology: the arrival of developing countries

According to conventional economic theory, countries tend to converge in economic and technological terms towards the leader. More recently, empirical approaches by economic historians (Abramovitz, Landes, Madison, Reinert) have found that while some countries are catching up, others are falling increasingly behind. Several theories compete to explain the precise mechanisms that explain how technological diffusion takes place. The paper reviews them and draws testable hypotheses for the study of international biotechnology diffusion. Biotechnologies are one of the leading sets of technologies developed in the late 20th century. They encompass applications in agriculture, chemicals, environment and pharmaceuticals. The United States has led the way in both scientific and industrial development of biotechnologies and these have quickly spread to Canada, Japan and Western Europe. Are the main developing countries adopting biotechnology? A study of the adoption of human health biotechnology in eight developing countries in Asia (China, India, Korea, and Singapore) and Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico) was conducted, based on the analysis of in situ interviews, patents and scientific publication. The study shows a marked process of adoption and learning in science: each of the above-mentioned developing countries is increasing its share of world publication between 1996 and 2008. However, their share of biotechnology patents for the same period has barely increased. There are also regional differences in terms of sectoral concentration; Latin America, Argentina and Brazil are eager adopters of agricultural biotechnology and are moving up in the pharmaceutical records. Several Argentinean, Chinese, Indian, and South Korean pharmaceutical companies have been particularly active in the development of biogenerics.     

The past and future of knowledge-based growth

This paper consolidates two previously disconnected literatures. It integrates R&D-based innovations into a unified growth framework with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. The theory suggests a refined view on the human factor in productivity growth. It helps to explain the historical emergence of R&D-based growth and the subsequent emergence of mass education and the demographic transition. The model predicts that the erstwhile positive correlation between population growth and innovative activity turns negative during economic development. This “population-productivity reversal” explains why innovative modern economies are usually characterized by low or negative population growth. Because innovations in modern economies are based on the education of the workforce, the medium-run prospects for future economic growth—when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries—are better than suggested by conventional R&D-based growth theories.     

Navajo economic behavior

“Navajo Economic Behavior” is an attempt to explain why development schemes on the Navajo Reservation have thus far failed. The main hypothesis is that these failures are the result of reliance on orthodox economic development theories of questionable relevance when applied to the Navajo. The reason such theories might not be appropriate is that they are based on assumptions regarding human behavior (maximation, and so forth) that do not apply to the Navajo with their unique cultural evolution. To illustrate the point, a brief review of the neoclassical economic model is offered and then compared to a model of Navajo economic behavior. The Navajo are shown to behave in a fashion somewhat different from the utility maximizing Anglo. The overlay of orthodox economic policy onto a unique Navajo economic system is shown to be the cause of confrontation and policy failure rather than stimulation of economic growth. The conclusion is that in an energy and resource scarce world, the Navajo with their ownership of such resources will be pushed further into the Anglo economic arena, despite cultural differences that may not make them comfortable there. Hence there exists the possibility of further failures of even the most well-intentioned economic growth schemes.     

Economic Growth Evens Out Happiness: Evidence from Six Surveys

In spite of the great U‐turn that saw income inequality rise in Western countries in the 1980s, happiness inequality has fallen in countries that have experienced income growth (but not in those that did not). Modern growth has reduced the share of both the “very unhappy” and the “perfectly happy.” Lower happiness inequality is found both between and within countries, and between and within individuals. Our cross‐country regression results suggest that the extension of various public goods helps to explain this greater happiness homogeneity. This new stylized fact arguably comes as a bonus to the Easterlin paradox, offering a somewhat brighter perspective for developing countries.     

The 2018 Clarence Ayres Scholar An Institutional Riposte to the “After the Washington Consensus”

The Washington Consensus as conceived in 1989 by John Williamson, the initiator of the term, was the foundation of the mainstream perspective on international development. The Washington Consensus consisted of a set of ten policies to be imposed through conditionality by international financial institutions on distressed developing countries. The vast criticism that ensued brought a set of policies in the form of the After the Washington Consensus (hereafter the AWC) in 2003, which designated a “new” set of policy reforms and conditionalities for developing countries. The aim of this article is to contrast the two sets of controversial policies, the original Washington Consensus and AWC, to an alternative perspective of international development based on an institutionalist approach.     

Democracy-growth nexus and its interaction effect on human development: A cross-national analysis

This paper examines the democracy-growth nexus and its interactive effect on human development by using cross-national panel data spanning over 20 years incorporating the effect of democratization process. We find evidence that the effect from democracy to human development is nonlinear and varies depending on the levels of growth and democracy. The results confirm that the interaction effect of democracy-growth nexus has a positive impact on human development but the effect is sensitive to democratization process and the level of a country's economic development. It is established that democracy is more crucial in developed countries, whereas economic growth is vital in developing countries. The findings imply that the role of democracy in enhancing human development should not be overemphasized as economic growth is vital in the developing countries.     

China in Global Economic Governance

China has made contradictory claims about its attitude toward the existing international order. Is China a “responsible stakeholder” in the existing international regimes? Or has China been a new type of great power seeking to reform the existing world order, making it more friendly toward the global South? In this article, we look beyond Chinese rhetoric and examine China's behavior in global economic governance. A comparison with other emerging powers and traditional major powers shows that China has been actively involved in global economic governance. But, thus far, China has not exercised substantive leadership nor has it pushed hard for change to benefit the developing countries. The level of its support of the current regimes varies across issue areas and is primarily driven by its changing economic interest.     

The first Great Divergence and the evolution of cross-country income inequality during the last millennium: the role of institutions and culture

Using a millennium of data for 12 countries in the East and in the West, this article tests the extent to which contracting institutions, property right institutions and culture can explain economic development and the Great Divergence. It is tested whether these theories influence growth through science and technology or through human capital or channels that are independent of these two channels. It is found that culture, contracting institutions and property right institutions have all been relevant for growth and development.     

Diversity in innovation and productivity in Europe

The diversity in innovation patterns across manufacturing and service industries and in their outcomes in terms of hourly labor productivity are investigated in this article considering six European countries. The Schumpeterian insights into the variety of innovation are developed in this work by identifying different innovation–performance relationships for industries and countries, relying either on the dominant role of product innovation, or on the diffusion of process improvements. Moreover, the “push” effect of innovation is combined with the “pull” effect of demand, by considering the impact of the dynamics of consumption and investment at the sectoral level. The results point out a “North-South” divide across EU countries, with the three countries of Northern Europe closely associated to the model of productivity growth based on product innovation, and the three Southern countries, mainly relying on the mechanisms by which process innovation is at the root of productivity improvements.     

产品空间与比较优势演化述评

发展经济学家认为经济发展的核心问题是结构转型,而结构转型所需能力的积累源于比较优势的自然演化,并且国家的经济增长绩效最终会出现收敛。然而,纵观世界经济发展史,国富国穷现象一直存在,现有的经济增长理论并不能给出统一的理论解释,尤其是在解释"中国出口增长之谜"以及"中等收入陷阱"等增长谜题时,理论严重滞后于现实。为此,Hausmann等新近提出产品空间与比较优势演化理论,试图构建解释国家间增长绩效差异的统一理论框架,即产品空间决定了比较优势的演化,进而决定了国家的经济增长绩效。该理论与比较优势理论一脉相承,但因其进一步考虑到产品空间的异质性及产品集的不连续性等情况,对现实的解释力和政策的指导意义更强。     

Growth in fragile states in Africa: Conflict and post‐conflict capital accumulation

This article analyses the pattern of capital accumulation in Africa and its interaction with political fragility. Political fragility, defined as armed conflict or civil war, retards or reverses gains with respect to capital accumulation, slowing long‐term economic growth. Many countries experience negative rates of capital accumulation, particularly during periods of acute political instability. In post‐war periods, countries generally continue to experience capital destruction, lending support to the “war ruin hypothesis.” This has implications for long‐term economic growth in view of the strong association between capital accumulation and economic performance. The main policy implication of the analysis is that African countries and their international partners should pay more attention to capital accumulation, including capital reconstruction after periods of political instability, to lay the foundations for sustainable economic growth.     

论经济发展的本质与动力

经济发展不等同于经济增长。无论是发展经济学,还是传统的政治经济学,对经济发展的研究都很不充分,不能为发展中国家提供理论指导。笔者认为,从本质上讲,经济发展就是劳动整体的技能水平提高,社会发展的动力是劳动,是劳动主体的智力因素。以往经济学对经济发展研究存在两种认识上的偏差:一是过于强调经济发展中物的作用,二是笼统解释经济发展中人的作用,对高智力复杂劳动的意义估计不充分。     

Environmental–Economic Accounting: Progress and Digression in the SEEA Revisions

The 1992 Earth Summit and its message of sustainable development drove the launching of a System for integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting, the SEEA. Since then, sustainable development and the SEEA have given way to green growth and green economy indicators in the latest 2012 Summit. A lengthy revision process has now produced a curtailed “SEEA central framework.” The new framework focuses on expenditures for environmental protection and resource management, and stocks and flows of “economic” resources; both are covered by the conventional national accounts. Environmental degradation, notably from pollution, is left to “experimental” ecosystem accounts. Further revision of the SEEA should reverse this retrenchment from integrative environmental–economic accounting. A comprehensive satellite system, rather than a limited statistical standard, might put the SEEA back on the policy agenda.     

Resilience and Dynamism of Embedded Financial Transactions in Cameroon

Following the recent financial crisis, institutional economists have issued a “call” for institutionalist research on alternative financial systems. While suggestions have been forthcoming, (for example, in Volume 48, Issue 4 of the Journal of Economic Issues), most have centered on national-level innovations in advanced capitalist countries, prompting further calls for “community” and individual level anti-capitalist financial relations. With this article, we respond to such calls. We show how networks of finance in Cameroon bridge the formal/informal dualisms in lending/savings activities. We demonstrate that any debates about whether to formalize informal financial institutions or leave them alone weaken in Cameroon because, through networks, people access both formal and informal financial institutions for different purposes and at various stages in the life of these institutions. This dynamism explains why, in spite of the growth of money markets in Cameroon, informal financial institutions have not disappeared, nor declined. In fact, they have expanded, contrary to predictions in existing new institutional economics research. While informal institutions have evolved, they have not necessarily become formal banks, microfinance, or stock markets. Rather, the informal financial institutions have adopted and adapted in terms of both lending and saving practices in a country where growing formal financialization has become the norm. Our findings challenge neoclassical and new institutional economics theories about money, credit, and the actors in the money market.