Decentralisation and income inequality in Central and Eastern European countries

This paper provides empirical evidence for the association between fiscal decentralisation and income distribution for a panel of 11 economies from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) during 1992–2016. We focus on three research topics: the effect of decentralisation on income inequality; the effects of the structure of subnational government finance on income inequality; and the validity of the Kuznets hypothesis. The main findings from the empirical exercise are as follows: first, we provide firm evidence on the presumed favourable effects of fiscal decentralisation on income distribution in the CEE countries; second, our empirical model suggests that the effects of fiscal decentralisation on income inequality are dependent on the source of finance of subnational governments, i.e. intergovernmental transfers may have a role in income equalisation; third, we cannot confirm the validity of the Kuznets hypothesis in CEE countries.     

Environmental Liability and Privatization in Central and Eastern Europe: Toward an Optimal Policy

It has been estimated that the costs of remediating contaminated sites in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will be very high. These contingent environmental liabilities have emerged precisely at the time CEE countries are attempting to privatize their capital stocks, creating major challenges for privatization agencies. It is also generally agreed that an inadequate handling of these liabilities in the past has reduced sales of state-owned enterprises in Central and Eastern Europe.This paper uses an analytical model to identify optimal policies for minimizing the damage to privatization processes from environmental liabilities. Policy simulations are conducted which evaluate the effects of the use of liability indemnifications and environmental audits on privatization sales, prices and government revenues net of environmental costs. The major finding of the paper is that goals to mitigate the effects of environmental liability on privatizations and maximize government net revenues from privatization sales require equivalent environmental liability policies. Both goals require optimal provision of information and indemnifications to investors, and moreover it is found that the two policies are complementary rather than substitutes.     

The economic performance of state-owned enterprises in Central and Eastern Europe

This article explores the economic performance of state ownership in the largest non-financial enterprises operating in 13 post-socialist Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries over the period 2007–2013. The largest state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are selected based on the ‘Coface – 500 Top Companies in CEE’ list in 2013. Of these 500 enterprises, 69 were identified as state-owned. All originated in the socialist period. The majority of them are from Poland and Ukraine. SOEs hold a dominant position in energy supply, the oil and gas sector, and transport. We find that the persistence of state ownership in post-socialist countries is caused by incomplete privatisation and the presence of SOEs within strategic sectors. The economic performance of the largest state-owned companies is, on average, comparable to their private counterparts.     

中东欧经济转型的成就与挑战

文章对中东欧经济转型进行了回顾,指出了中东欧经济转型的特点。在此基础上,文章分析了中东欧经济转型的成就,强调中东欧国家在建立市场经济体制和经济发展上取得了重大进展。与此同时,目前遭受全球金融危机冲击的中东欧国家也面临着许多挑战,需要推动许多领域,特别是社会领域的改革。     

Wealth inequality and financial inclusion: Evidence from South African tax and survey records

Theoretical models show that financial inclusion reduces wealth inequality. Existing empirical models are restricted to estimates using income inequality because of a lack of cross country wealth inequality data. We used 2010-11 and 2014-5 waves of the National Income Dynamics Study combined with South African tax records to estimate wealth and income inequality. Using Re-centered Influence Function regressions on the micro-level records, we confirmed the negative cross-country relationship between financial inclusion and income inequality. Wealth inequality is different. Financial inclusion improved wealth shares of only the middle class. Because of predatory lending, expansion of credit reduced the wealth share of the poor. Improved savings by the middle class, providing better oversight over financial services targeted at the poor and removing impediments to the small business sector are pre-conditions for financial inclusion to reduce wealth inequality.     

Privatization and contaminated site remediation in Central and Eastern Europe: Do environmental liability policies matter?

This paper examines the effects on site remediation decisions after state-owned firms have been privatized of providing environmental information to potential investors and undertaking site remediation planning prior to privatization. The literature suggests that to minimize distortions created by uncertain environmental problems, governments should invest in environmental information for potential investors, inventory problems and develop plans for remediation. One of the believed benefits is a higher probability of site remediation, because with uncertainty resolved potential conflicts after privatization are less likely. Few countries in Central Europe, which has experienced both environmental problems and privatization on enormous scales, have adopted this advice. Using firm-level data, empirical analysis is presented, which suggests providing only information to investors is insufficient to spur remediation. Inventorying site contamination and planning remediation prior to privatization is a much more effective measure. Combining provision of information with remediation planning is found to be the most powerful policy package for encouraging remediation.     

Explaining participation in the undeclared economy in Central and Eastern Europe: a demand-side approach

To explain participation in the undeclared economy, the conventional supply-side approach evaluates the reasons people work in this sphere. This article, for the first time in Central and Eastern Europe, explains the undeclared economy using a demand-side approach which evaluates citizens’ motives for purchasing undeclared goods and services. Here, three potential explanations for purchasing undeclared goods and services, grounded in rational economic actor, social actor and institutional imperfections theoretical perspectives, are evaluated. Reporting data from 11,131 face-to-face interviews conducted in 11 Central and Eastern European countries in 2013, the main finding is that all three explanations are used by consumers, demonstrating the need for a synthesis of these approaches. A multinomial regression analysis identifies the specific groups variously using the undeclared economy to obtain a lower price, for social or redistributive rationales, or due to formal institutional imperfections. The implications for theorising and tackling the undeclared economy are then explored.     

Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: cyclicality,inertia and the role of EU accession

This article evaluates the cyclicality, inertia and effect of EU accession on fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) using a real time dataset. Budget balances are found to react in a stabilizing way to economic activity – every extra percentage point of economic growth is associated with an improvement in the budget balance of 0.3 percentage points of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – and there is no evidence of an asymmetric reaction to the cycle. Balances are much less inert than is typically found in Western Europe. However, there is clear evidence of a fiscal loosening in the run-up to EU accession. This began in 1999 in larger central European countries, often identified as ‘front-runners’. The other seven began loosening in 2001, after the Nice Treaty was agreed. For both sets of countries, this loosening cumulatively amounts to some 3% of GDP.     

Uncovered interest parity in Central and Eastern Europe: Expectations and structural breaks

This paper examines the empirical validity of the hypothesis of uncovered interest parity (UIP) using data from five Central and Eastern European countries with floating exchange rates for the period 2003 to 2014. The analysis includes forward‐looking as well as static expectations and allows for different types of structural break. The variable depicting the deviation from strict UIP is stationary when expectations are forward looking, suggesting that it is not possible to reject the UIP hypothesis with a constant risk premium. The deviation from strict UIP is however typically not stationary when expectations are static, even when structural breaks are incorporated, leading to the rejection of the UIP hypothesis with a constant risk premium. The results underscore the central role of expectations for the UIP hypothesis.