Are women less likely to be managers in the UK labour market?

This paper investigates the gender gap within management roles in the UK. We find that female workers are less likely to become managers than male workers because women are traditionally expected to provide the majority of care for their family. This implies that women are pressured to do more informal work than men, which limits their formal working experience and impedes their career development. We also find that the probability of becoming a manager adopts an inverted U-shape relationship with age. This likelihood of becoming a manager also increases with employment duration and educational attainment due to the accumulation of relevant experience and human capital.     

Real wages,inflation and labour productivity in Australia

This article presents an analysis of real wages, inflation and labour productivity interrelationships using cointegration, Granger causality and, most importantly, structural change tests. Applications of tests to Australian data over the 1965 to 2007 period corroborate the presence of a structural break in 1985 and show that a 1% increase in manufacturing sector real wages led to an increase in manufacturing sector productivity of between 0.5% and 0.8%. Comparable estimates for the effect of inflation on manufacturing sector productivity have limited statistical significance. Granger causality test results suggest that real wages and inflation both Granger cause productivity in the long run.     

中国股市是否实现了与世界同步

由于市场发展程度和制度安排等原因,中国证券市场多年来一直保持着较为独立的走势.本文运用协整理论对我国证券市场和世界主要证券市场总体走势特征进行了实证分析,以此来考察我国股票市场与世界主要市场的关联和相互影响情况,以期通过对现有股指的关联分析对我国股市的一些统计特征进行反映并进而分析考察我国证券市场的发展状况.     

A re-examination of financial development,stock markets development and economic growth

This study provides new evidence on the role of financial development and stock market development in accounting for economic growth across geographic regions and income groups. To derive feasible policy implications, we estimate not only unbalanced panel regressions with period fixed effects, but also variance decompositions of annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates to examine what proxy measures are most important in economic growth over time and how much they contribute to economic growth. We find distinct direction, timing and strength of the causal links between financial development, stock market development and economic growth based on the results of Granger causality tests. Therefore, it may be necessary to make different efforts to achieve steady economic growth across geographic regions and income groups.     

中国货币政策与股票市场的关系

本文提出的综合理论框架全面分析描述了以稳定物价水平、促进国民经济持续增长为目的的货币政策与股票市场的关系 ,着重对中央银行干预股票市场的必要性和有效性进行理论分析和实证检验。本文应用的动态滚动式的计量检验方法适应中国经济体制不断调整的特征 ,不但可以完成我们的理论分析 ,更可以检测中央银行对股票市场干预的机制及干预的有效性 ,从而分析进一步的政策含义 ,为中央银行的货币政策制订和预期效果提供一个前瞻性的预测分析框架。     

Uncovering the interrelationship between the U.S. stock and housing markets: a bootstrap rolling window Granger causality approach

The purpose of this study is to investigate the time-varying interrelationship between the housing market and the stock market in the U.S. during the period of 1890–2013, by employing a rolling window subsample with a bootstrap Granger causality test. The rolling window allows for structural changes in the economy over time. Whereas previous studies have not identified a causal relationship between the U.S. housing price index and the SP500 stock price index, this new analysis is the first to identify certain periods wherein either the wealth effect or the investment effect can be observed.     

A sneeze in the U.S., a cough in Japan,but pneumonia in Taiwan? An application of the Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model

This paper examines the lead–lag relationships among the output of Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. Three testing methods are employed: the traditional linear Granger causality test, Hiemstra and Jones' [Hiemstra, C., Jones, J.D., 1994. Testing for linear and nonlinear Granger causality in the stock price-volume relation. Journal of Finance 49, 1639–1664] nonlinear Granger causality test and Warne's [Warne, A., 2000. Causality and regime inference in a Markov-S switching VAR, Working Paper no. 118, Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm.] Granger causality test under the Markov-Switching model. We find that the causal ordering is unclear and depends on the model we used. Because Markov-Switching model imposes few restrictions in estimation, we tend to use its estimated results but bear in mind that the evidence is sensitive. First, the common shock hypothesis is found that most probably exists between Taiwan and the U.S. Next, we conclude that Japan tends to lead Taiwan's output, to a certain extent. Last, there is no causal ordering between the U.S. and Japan economies.     

我国碳排放权交易市场与股票市场的关联:基于非线性Granger因果检验与非平衡面板模型的实证分析

碳排放权交易市场作为金融市场的一部分,与股票市场有着一定的联动性.我国在2017年底开启全国性碳排放交易市场,其关联必将引起越来越多的关注.本文一方面通过线性Granger因果检验与非线性Granger因果检验综合检验各碳交易试点地区的碳收益率与股票市场整体的相关性,研究结果发现只有广东、天津的碳收益与深证综指和湖北与上证综指之间存在单向的Granger因果关系,而北京、上海、广东与上证综指、深证综指存在双向或单向的非线性Granger因果关系;另一方面,通过对各碳排放权交易试点地区的价格、收益率与试点区域股票市场的相关性进行非平衡面板数据的实证分析,发现碳排放权交易试点地区与其区域股市在长期、短期上都存在显著的关联性.     

金融深化与经济增长：文献综述与中国实证

20世纪90年代后西方学者对经济增长和金融深化的研究多数支持"供给主导"假说,即金融深化过程会通过提高外部融资可得性、降低外部融资成本来促进经济增长。对我国1978年~2007年间宏观层面的经济增长和金融深化数据进行Grang-er因果关系检验显示,长期内多数结果支持金融深化是经济增长的原因的假说,而短期内两者是相互影响的。     

基于VAR模型的广西保险发展与经济增长关联机制研究

改革开放30年以来,随着宏观经济的迅猛发展,广西保险业不断发展壮大。通过建立VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数与方差分解的方法,分析了广西保险发展与宏观经济之间的关联机制。分析结果表明,广西保险发展与宏观经济增长之间存在明显的正相关关系;广西宏观经济增长是保险发展的Granger原因,但保险发展对宏观经济增长的作用不显著;广西宏观经济增长与保险发展之间的具体关联过程存在较大差异,人均可支配收入的增长对保险发展具有立竿见影的效果,而保险发展对经济增长的作用较为滞后,需经历两年的时滞后才开始发挥作用,且作用相对较弱。     

电力与经济增长关系计量分析——以新疆为例

运用Granger因果关系和误差修正模型,分析新疆电力与GDP以及三次产业之间的长期均衡关系.结果表明,新疆电力与经济的Granger因果关系是从GDP到装机容量和用电量的单向因果关系.从长期均衡看,GDP每增加1％,用电量增长1.1136％,装机容量增长0.9525％,经济增长对电力有效利用的促进作用显著.第一、二、三产业都是从产业增加值到用电量的单向因果关系.从长期均衡来看,第一、二、三次产业增加值每增加1％,用电量分别增长1.4215％、1.0887％和0.9533％.基于电力与经济的关系,新疆应做好电力规划,避免电力工业的产能过剩,优化产业结构,降低能耗,促进经济可持续发展.