The future of mobility and its impact on the automobile insurance industry

Among the trends impacting most industries are new mobility concepts, digitalization, urbanization, rising environmental awareness, and demographic change. The automobile insurance industry, in particular, is strongly affected by new mobility concepts, including autonomous, shared, and electric vehicles, which are expected to increasingly impact the risk exposure and insurance demand in the future. Identifying and assessing the resulting risk and opportunity landscape from these trends thus becomes a major strategic challenge for insurers. The aim of this paper is to analyze the trends that impact the field of mobility and thus automobile insurers. Based on this, we derive a set of strategic response measures for insurers to enable them to be prepared for the future of mobility.     

The genetics of breast and ovarian cancer V: application to income protection insurance

In Part IV we presented a comprehensive model of a life history of a woman at risk of breast cancer (BC), in which relevant events such as diagnosis, treatment, recovery and recurrence were represented explicitly, and corresponding transition intensities were estimated. In this part, we study some applications to income protection insurance (IPI) business. We calculate premiums based either on genetic test results or more practically on a family history of BC. We then extend the model into an IPI market model by incorporating rates of insurance-buying behaviour, in order to estimate the possible costs of adverse selection, in terms of increased premiums, under various moratoria on the use of genetic information.     

新《保险法》对保险公司的影响

我国《保险法》的最新修订具有里程碑式的意义,对保险公司的组织架构、制度建设、运营行为都将产生深远的影响。从保险公司的角度来看,新《保险法》的实施可谓机遇与挑战并存,如果能够妥善地根据新《保险法》及时对自身作出适当的调整,那么保险公司的核心竞争力无疑会提升,这对整个保险行业的健康持续发展也是十分有利的。     

The impact of jump risks on nominal interest rates and foreign exchange rates

This article investigates the relationship between the nominal interest rate and inflation and also the forward exchange rate under a general specification of the underlying processes govering the foreign exchange rate. There are three distinct risks that affect the relation between the real rate of interest and the nominal rate namely, consumption risk, diffusion risk, and the existence of jump risks of inflation. Jump risks lower the nominal interest rate because of jump hedging of a nominal bond. The forward exchange rate depends on the expected depreciation of the domestic currency as well as these three risks. As the domestic jump risks increase, the domestic nominal interest rate decreases and the forward exchange rate decreases.     

Impact of interest rates on the life insurance market development: Cross-country evidence

Studies have found that interest rates create incentives for insurance firms to focus on financial markets through investments. Using a cross-country context, we conjecture that interest rates affect the life insurance market’s development. Using an initial sample comprising the time series of interest rates and insurance markets’ measures from 34 countries across 1998–2017, we found that the density and penetration of the life insurance market is low in countries with high interest rates. Using another sample of 6,451 observations from insurance firms operating in the same 34 countries, we verified that the financial and operational incomes are equally significant in predicting the net income for life insurance companies that operate in countries with high interest rates. Our study contributes to observations that the lack of governmental control over public expenses impacts interest rates and, thereby, the opportunities for insurers.     

我国保险保障基金风险费率模拟分析

常用的保险保障基金征收方法分为平均比率费率法和风险费率法。与国际上大多数国家一样,我国保险保障基金目前采用平均比率费率法。平均比率费率法不与保险公司自身的风险挂钩,不会因为其冒险行为而收取更高费率;而风险费率法则是保险公司风险程度与其所交的保险保障基金费率呈正比。本文对我国25家财险公司和25家寿险公司进行风险等级分类,对我国保险保障基金风险费率进行模拟分析,提出了我国保险保障基金宜采用风险费率征收方式的基本构想,体现出公平合理、防范风险的发展要求。     

保险服务业产业内贸易及其影响因素的实证分析

本文对美国与其22个贸易伙伴国的保险服务业产业内贸易水平进行度量,并且使用Grubel-Lloyd IIT指数,建立2002年~2006年面板数据模型对保险服务业产业内贸易的影响因素进行经验分析。研究结果表明:市场开放度和跨国公司内部贸易流与保险服务业产业内贸易存在显著的正相关,市场规模差异与保险服务业产业内贸易存在显著的负相关。人均收入差异、市场不平衡度和对外直接投资均对保险服务业产业内贸易水平的影响不显著。     

The distributional impact of foreign deposits on federal deposit insurance premia

Rapid growth of deposits in U.S. foreign bank branches and current U.S. government policies have combined to create a new inequality in the deposit insurance system. Our research shows that smaller banks are substantially subsidizing the insurance costs of the larger, multinational institutions. When insurance premiums are viewed in the context of an implicit tax, it is highly regressive with the wealth transfer growing over time. Recent reform proposals do not fully address important international influences and therefore underestimate the scope of the problem.     

The impact of D&O insurance on excess corporate leverage

The governance effects of directors’ and officers’ liability insurance (D&O insurance), an important tool for risk diversification, are of strong concern in the capital market. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2009 to 2018, we examine the impact of D&O insurance on excess corporate leverage. We find that D&O insurance is negatively associated with excess corporate leverage and that this result is consistent with a series of robustness tests. Further analyses show that D&O insurance impedes excess corporate leverage mainly because of its effect on external monitoring. The effect is more pronounced for firms that are state-owned, have political connections and are located in provinces with low marketization than for other firms.     

小概率高损失事件的忽略——对中国发展巨灾保险的意义

地震、洪水和台风等都属于小概率高损失的巨灾风险,一旦发生将给社会和人们的生活带来破坏性的后果。研究表明,巨灾事件的发生会极大地改变公众对风险或损失的预期和感知。在巨灾事件发生时以及一段时间内,由于风险信息的显著性和可获得性,公众会产生暂时的紧张和恐惧心理,随着时间的流逝,人们会慢慢从非理性中冷静下来,意识到巨灾风险发生的概率是如此之小,过度的担心是没有必要的。这对于巨灾风险制度的发展产生了重要的影响,因此,分析和研究公众对巨灾风险的感知、提出相应的巨灾保险发展的对策建议具有重要的理论和实践意义。     

Terrorism and its impact on the cost of debt

We extend the literature on the costs of terrorism by examining its long-term impact on financial markets, an underdeveloped strand of research within the terrorism construct. Specifically, we look at its effect on the sovereign risk of 102 countries (a much broader sample than examined before), which forms the basis of the cost of debt in those countries, postulating that it results in a lower credit rating and that this impact is more pronounced in developing as opposed to developed markets. In operationalizing the risk of terrorism, we utilize the Institute for Economics and Peace's Global Terrorism Index, the most comprehensive index constructed to date which incorporates both the economic and social dimensions of terrorism and is based on the Global Terrorism Database covering 104,000 documented incidents. The results of the study support the hypothesis that terrorism results in a higher cost of debt for sovereigns and by extension, firms in impacted countries. In fact, a two-point increase in terrorism on the utilized 10-point scale on average results in a half notch reduction in a sovereign's credit rating, roughly equivalent to a change in outlook. Furthermore, this impact is more pronounced in developing markets where we find that a comparable two-point increase in terrorism on average results in an entire notch downgrade in the sovereign credit rating, e.g., from BB to BB-. Finally, we find that our model demonstrates predictive power on an out-of-sample basis and as such, could be useful for investors seeking to construct more efficient diversified asset portfolios.     

论保险的本质与保险业在金融行业中的角色定位

保险的本质是以资金解决了经济社会运行过程中要素的短缺与需求之间的矛盾,实现了风险的分散和财富的调剂,保障了经济社会生活的稳定运行。从保险的本质出发,明确保险业在金融行业中的角色定位,是保险业实现科学发展的前提。在当前经济金融环境不确定因素增加,行业发展尚不充分的情况下,保险业偏离保障发展方向可能带来潜在的风险。只有坚持保险保障的发展方向,立足于专业化经营,不断创新,进一步加强监管,才能真正实现保险事业又好又快的科学发展。     

The impact of deposit insurance on S&L shareholders' risk/return trade-offs

This article empirically examines how savings and loan associations' (S&Ls') stock returns respond to asset mix changes. When deposit insurance is underpriced, increases in financial leverage and the riskiness of the asset portfolio should lead to increases in expected return on common stock. In particular, changes in asset components which increase the volatility of an institution's portfolio should lead the stock market to upwardly revalue S&L equity. This hypothesis is examined using data for the July 1984–December 1989 period. Increases in commercial mortgage loans, acquisition and development loans, and investments in service corporations appear to cause higher return for shareholders of poorly capitalized, failing S&Ls. Similar increases appear to have little impact on the common stock returns of well-capitalized S&Ls.     

A hierarchical model for the estimation of claim rates in a motor car insurance portfolio

Abstract

The present paper gives practical examples involving motor car insurance portfolios which we believe provide a natural setting in which collateral data should be used. In passing, the problem of assigning partial credibility is solved and an application of the empirical linearized Bayes estimators to experience rating is discussed.     

Uncertainty on survival probabilities and solvency capital requirement: application to long-term care insurance

In this paper, we focus on uncertainty issues on disabled lives survival probabilities of LTC insurance policyholders and its consequences on solvency capital requirement. Among the risks affecting long-term care portfolios, special attention is addressed to the table risk, i.e. the risk of unanticipated aggregate mortality, arising from the uncertainty in modeling LTC claimants survival law. The table risk can be thought as the risk of systematic deviations referring not only to a parameter risk but, as well, to any other sources leading to a misinterpretation of the life table resulting for example from an evolution of medical techniques or a change in rules of acceptance. In fine, the idea is to introduce the risk of systematic deviations arising from the uncertainty on the disabled lives death probabilities directly. We analyze the consequences of an error of appreciation on the disabled lives survival probabilities in terms of level of reserves and describe a framework in an Own Risk and Solvency Assessment perspective to measure the gap between the risk profile from the standard formula to the risk analysis specific to the organism.     

Customer retention in the insurance industry: Using survival analysis to predict cross-selling opportunities

In saturated markets customer retention offers a number of benefits to companies. While these benefits are recognised by financial institutions, many have not fully embraced the concept in practice. This paper focuses on the prediction of crossselling opportunities and attempts to answer the questions of who is likely to buy additional products from the same company, what the next product is likely to be and when the purchase is likely to be made. The analysis is based on a sample of 9,000 customers selected at random from the data warehouse of a large international financial institution. The paper discusses and illustrates the application of survival analysis techniques in this context and makes suggestions for further research in this area.     

The impact of quantitative easing on the US term structure of interest rates

This paper estimates the impact of the Federal Reserve’s 2008–2011 quantitative easing (QE) program on the US term structure of interest rates. We estimate an arbitrage-free term structure model that explicitly includes the quantity impact of the Fed’s trades on Treasury market prices. As such, we are able to estimate both the magnitude and duration of the QE price effects. We show that the Fed’s QE program affected forward rates without introducing arbitrage opportunities into the Treasury security markets. Short- to medium- term forward rates were reduced ( \(<\) 12 years), but the QE had little if any impact on long-term forward rates. This is in contrast to the Fed’s stated intentions for the QE program. The persistence of the rate impacts increased with maturity up to 6 years then declined, with half-lives lasting approximately 4, 6, 12, 8 and 4 months for the 1, 2, 5, 10 and 12 years forwards, respectively. Since bond yields are averages of forward rates over a bond’s maturity, QE affected long-term bond yields. The average impacts on bond yields were 327, 26, 50, 70, and 76 basis points for 1, 2, 5, 10 and 30 years, respectively.