The role of institutions in finance curse: Evidence from international data

This paper investigates the effect of banking sector development on economic growth in a panel of 87 countries, paying particular attention to the role of institutions in reducing the finance curse phenomenon. The dynamic generalized method-of-moments (GMM) results indicate that institutions play an important role in mediating the positive relationship between banking sector development and growth. This suggests that the marginal impact of financial development on growth depends on institutional quality. Using the four-way partition of institutions classified by Rodrik (2005), we also find that resilient market-regulating, market-stabilizing, and market-creating institutions act as mediators to the financial market in facilitating growth. The results are robust to using alternative institutions indicators, estimation strategies, and stopping the sample before the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.     

Financial sector development and domestic savings in South Asia

Given the limited capital flows to developing countries in South Asia, domestic savings is the primary source of investment and growth. Financial sector development and access to financial institutions are important determinants of savings ratios in developing countries. In this context, we empirically examine the role of financial development on savings ratios of five South Asian countries after controlling for other relevant variables for the period 1975–2010 and also for two sub-periods—the pre-reforms period (1975–1991) and the post-reforms period (1992–2010). We find that financial sector development positively affects total and private savings in South Asia along with per capita income, share of agriculture and foreign savings. Results also support the humped-shaped relationship between financial development and savings. The causality results support that financial development leads to higher savings mobilisation in South Asia.     

Trade,Remittances, Institutions,and Economic Growth

This paper empirically investigates the role of trade, remittances, and institutions in economic development in a large sample of developing countries using recently developed instruments for all these variables. Both cross-country (over 30 years) and dynamic panel data (over 5-year periods) regressions of growth rates on instrumented trade, remittances, and institutions provide evidence of a significant impact of trade, institutions, and remittances on growth. While institutions foster growth, remittances hamper it. The effect of trade on growth is positive in cross-sectional regressions but ambiguous in dynamic panel data regressions. These results are indicative of a more important role for trade in explaining growth in the very long run compared with over shorter horizons.     

Dual Financial Systems and Inequalities in Economic Development

This paper analyzes the emergence and the evolution of a modern banking system, in a developing economy where banks coexist with informal credit institutions. Banks have a superior ability in mobilizing savings while informal lenders enjoy a superior information on borrowers. More specifically, banks cannot observe perfectly the behavior of borrowers; therefore the latter need to provide collateral assets in order to obtain bank loans. Physical collateral is not needed to borrow in the informal credit market: informal lenders can rely on social networks to obtain information on borrowers' behavior and invoke social sanctions to enforce repayment. The sustained growth path is associated with the successful development of the banking system that gathers savings on a large scale. However, informal lenders and other traditional credit institutions are necessary in the first stage of development when collateral is scarce. In this economy, the development of modern financial intermediaries is closely associated with the accumulation of collateral assets by entrepreneurs. This implies that the initial level of development as well as the initial distribution of wealth will determine the joint evolution of the real side of the economy and the financial system. Under certain conditions, two long-run steady-state equilibria exist: in the first one the economy stops growing and the banking system never successfully develops; in the second one the economy reaches a sustained growth rate and the informal sector asymptotically vanishes. The impact of the following policies is discussed: financial repression, micro-credit institutions and redistribution of assets.     

Foreign workers and productivity in an emerging economy: The case of Malaysia

Many developed and developing countries are experiencing large and growing levels of international migration of labor. However, the large majority of research on the economic impact of inflows of migrant workers on host economies focuses exclusively on developed countries. In this paper, we address this gap in the literature by examining migrant‐induced productivity effects in the emerging economy of Malaysia. Importantly, the Malaysian case is typical for many Asian economies where, next to high skilled foreign workers, large numbers of migrants consist of low skilled workers that are employed in host economies on a temporary basis. Using detailed industry level data for the period 2005 to 2009, we find that both high skilled and low skilled foreign workers generate positive productivity effects in Malaysian manufacturing industries. Furthermore, our results identify a strong presence of industry heterogeneity, as the effects of foreign workers, in general, and low skilled foreign workers, in particular, are pronounced in labor and assembly intensive modern industries with a strong export focus. This indicates the importance of foreign workers for the contemporary international competitiveness of the Malaysian manufacturing sector. As such, our findings provide important new input to the debate on the role of low skilled foreign workers in processes of development of the Malaysian economy.     

Does public‐sector employment fully crowd out private‐sector employment?

Employment matters for development because it can raise household income, lower inequality, promote economic growth, and contribute to political stability. Many countries have high rates of public employment, but what effect does this have on overall employment and unemployment rates? This paper investigates if and to what extent public‐sector employment crowds out (reduces) private‐sector employment. In particular, we estimate regressions of unemployment or private‐sector employment on two measures of public‐sector employment. The study uses an especially assembled dataset, which is novel for its coverage of a large sample of developing countries as part of a panel of rich and poor countries. Our results point to full or just about full crowding‐out for the entire sample. Unlike previous cross‐country studies, which were restricted to advanced economies, we are able to show that these results also apply to developing countries, although crowding‐out may not be quite as high as in advanced economies. The results mean that high rates of public employment have an offsetting large negative impact on private employment rates and do not reduce overall unemployment rates. With the qualifier that government activities may help the economy in other ways, our results imply that, rather than creating public‐sector jobs, scarce fiscal resources could be better spent on other developmental needs.     

Export surges

How can developing countries stimulate and sustain strong export growth? To answer this question, we examine 92 episodes of export surges, defined as significant increases in manufacturing export growth that are sustained for at least 7 years. We find that export surges in developing countries tend to be preceded by a large real depreciation, which leaves the exchange rate significantly undervalued. In contrast, in developed countries, the role of the exchange rate is less pronounced. We examine why the exchange rate is important in developing countries and find that the depreciation is associated with a significant reallocation of resources in the export sector. In particular, depreciation stimulates entry into new export products and new markets. These new exports are important, accounting for over 40% of export growth on average during the surge in developing countries. We argue that a large real depreciation induces firms to expand the product and market space for exports.     

Unbalanced growth and health care expenditure

Baumol's model of unbalanced growth implies that health care expenditure (HCE) is driven by wage increases in excess of productivity growth. However, it remains unclear whether the HCE in developing countries is affected by the same factor. This paper tests this hypothesis by using China provincial panel data. We show that HCE grows more rapidly if economy‐wide wage growth exceeds productivity growth in China. The results are robust to the use of housing price as an instrumental variable for the economy‐wide nominal wage and the inclusion of real GDP growth, demographic structure, government deficit, pollution emissions and health sector quality as control variables. Furthermore, our findings show that Baumol's cost disease plays a more important role in the less economically developed western regions in which the rural–urban migration is less pronounced.     

Bank loans vs. trade credit

Using a World Bank dataset of Chinese firms, we investigate the relative importance of bank loans and trade credit in promoting firm performance. To deal with possible endogeneity issues, we employ distinct and separable instrumental variables for bank loans and trade credit. We find that access to bank loans is central to improving firm performance and growth, while the availability of trade credit is much less important. Our results suggest that trade credit cannot effectively substitute for bank loans. Overall, our findings suggest the need for further development of China's formal financial institutions, which would enable the non‐state sector to grow much faster than it has grown in recent decades.     

Economic Takeoffs in a Dynamic Process of Globalization*

The paper develops a dynamic general‐equilibrium framework to illustrate that trade liberalization may speed up the process of globalization and industrialization by enabling a small open economy to reallocate production factors to modern export sectors where increasing returns to experience are present. The authors emphasize the role of knowledge in service activities related to the export of modern sector goods, which has the form of a public good that can be utilized in exporting of other modern sector goods. As a consequence of this knowledge accumulation, the economy begins to take off and exhibits more rapid rates of wage and output growth. The accumulation of knowledge also shifts comparative advantage in the modern sector to more service‐intensive goods, thus leading to a natural evolution of comparative advantage. These results lend theoretical support to the different development experiences in the 1960s between East Asia and Latin America.     

Subjectivism,joint consumption and the state: Public goods in Staatswirtschaftslehre *

Abstract

On the basis of F.B.W. Hermann's Staatswirthschaftliche Untersuchungen and of major German, Austrian and Swedish contributions to public economics, two specific claims with regard to the Germanic influence in the development of public expenditure theory are put forward in this paper. It is contended that the German achievements concerning the conceptual clarification of public goods are: (i) important as conceptual ingredients of the modern ‘micro-based’ theory of the public sector: (ii) less closely linked to some historical and intellectual German Sonderweg (culminating in historism, a collectivistic view of social entities and a mystical glorification of the State) than is often suggested.

It is argued that these achievements rather were to a large extent inspired by the more cosmopolitan tendencies in German thought. An important influence is Kantian liberalism. Kant construed a kind of foundational interdependence between the public and the private sector. This prepares the ground for a framework of complementary institutions instead of explaining public institutions in terms of a market failure-perspective based on non-excludability: the view developed in German Idealism gives non-rivalry the pivotal role: the explanation of public institutions systematically hinges upon the existence of goods, the benefits of which are necessarily universal and hence are necessarily made available in a non-rival mode.     

NON-CORPORATE SECTOR FINANCE AND FINANCING OF SMALL INDUSTRIES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE NIGERIAN EXPERIENCE

This paper attempts to report the author's findings regarding the role of the non-corporate sector in providing investment finance for small-scale industries in Nigeria, through co-operative efforts. It specially underlines the role of indigenous social organizations and group relations in solving the economic problems of a developing economy which places emphasis on industrial development. Though these sources provide short-term consumption finance, they certainly constitute an inadequate source of long-term finance for industry in a situation where the importance of small-scale industry development is officially greatly emphasized, and existing financial institutions are designed to serve only the financial needs of large industrial enterprises. The role of government in the context of the dilemma of the small-scale entrepreneur is examined and suggestions made for improvements. The paper reflects what is probably the experience of many developing countries trying to industrialize.     

Policy impact assessment in developing countries using Social Accounting Matrices: The Kenya SAM 2014

This paper describes the structure and estimation of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Kenya for the year 2014. Among its specificities, this SAM includes a very high disaggregation of the agri‐food sector and accounts for the double role of households as producers and consumers. Accounting for these characteristics is crucial to provide robust socioeconomic analysis in the context of developing countries. Indeed, this type of database is valuable to perform ex‐ante evaluations of economic policies with various economic models and techniques. In this paper, we present an application with a linear multiplier analysis (backward linkages and value chain decomposition). The results show the capacity of the primary sector in Kenya to generate value added and employment, with this growth distributed more intensely in rural households whose main livelihood is semi‐subsistence agriculture.     

The impact of foreign direct investment on productivity: New evidence for developing countries

We provide new empirical evidence on the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and total factor productivity (TFP) growth using cross-country data for 51 developing countries over the period 1984–2010. Our results suggest a weak direct effect of FDI on TFP growth but, after accounting for the roles of human capital and institutions as contingencies in the FDI-TFP growth relationship, we find a robust FDI-induced productivity growth response dependent on these ‘absorptive capacities’. However, the relevance of the human capital contingency effect diminishes when the effect of institutions is also considered, which suggests that improving institutions is relatively more important than human capital development for developing countries to realise productivity gains from FDI.     

Institutions for private sector development and pro‐poor growth: Evidence from Vietnam

Using the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey 2008, we explore the differences in pro‐poor growth performance in provinces in Vietnam according to the quality of the provinces’ institutions that support private sector activity. We exploit the localized and varying effect of French colonial legacy across Vietnamese provinces to address the endogeneity of institutions. We find strong and robust evidence of a positive effect of good‐quality institutions that support private sector activity on pro‐poor growth and that enhanced working hours and hourly wage and extended income from non‐farm self‐employment play critical roles in this outcome.     

Financial development,industrialization, the role of institutions and government: a comparative analysis between India and China

This research is the first comparative attempt incorporating the role of economic, demographic, sectoral contribution, government and trade in explaining financial development for India and China. Using time-series estimations, we establish that institutional quality and government size impede financial development, whereas urbanization, industrialization and service sector growth help in financial development for both countries. Trade openness also enhances Indian financial development but hinders Chinese financial development. We suggest that the policy advisers should not underestimate the role of urbanization, industrialization and service sector growth in implementing financial development. Finally, we find that the institutions and governments will play a key role for both economies in enhancing finance and growth.     

Political credibility and economic growth in less developed countries

While the mainstream of economic development theory focuses on the efficiency of policy measures, the role of the credibility of these measures is rarely analyzed. In this paper we argue that in less developed countries the problem of establishing the credibility of policy measures is at least as important as the problem of choosing the efficient policy solution. We claim that many of the difficulties less developed countries face can be understood in terms of lack of effective control on the discretionary power of governments, which ultimately leads to policies that are not credible. The private sector anticipates large swings in policies and reacts by withholding its resources. Symptoms of these credibility problems in less developed countries include the size of the informal sector, capital flight, and the reluctance of investors to commit capital. All of these reactions contribute to the slow economic growth in these countries. This paper concludes that establishing strategies for the control of state discretionary power is a crucial precondition for overcoming these problems and generating long term economic growth.     

Remittances,financial development,and growth

Despite the increasing importance of remittances in total international capital flows, the relationship between remittances and growth has not been adequately studied. This paper studies one of the links between remittances and growth, in particular how local financial sector development influences a country's capacity to take advantage of remittances. Using a newly-constructed dataset for remittances covering about 100 developing countries, we find that remittances boost growth in countries with less developed financial systems by providing an alternative way to finance investment and helping overcome liquidity constraints. This finding controls for the endogeneity of remittances and financial development, does not depend on the particular measure of financial sector development used, and is robust to a number of robustness tests, including threshold estimation. We also provide evidence that there could be an investment channel trough which remittances can promote growth especially when the financial sector does not meet the credit needs of the population.     

Banking Structure,Marketization, and Small Business Development: Regional Evidence From China

This paper provides an empirical examination of the regional banking structures in China and their effects on entrepreneurial activity. Using a panel of 27 provinces and four directly controlled municipalities from 1997 through 2008, we find that the presence of large banking institutions negatively correlates with small business development in local markets and that this negative relation is driven mainly by participation of large banks in the short‐term loan market. Rural banking institutions, in contrast, are found to promote regional entrepreneurial activity. Moreover, large state banks facilitate small business development in concentrated markets. When we interact measures of banking financing by state banks and rural banking institutions with a set of provincial‐level marketization indexes, we find that extensive marketization, factor market development and sophistication of legal frameworks mitigate the negative effect of large state banks on small business development. In provinces with advanced market development, efficient factor markets and favourable institutional settings, the positive effect of rural banking institutions on small business growth is even stronger.     

Informality and Long‐Run Growth

One of the most salient features of developing economies is the existence of a large informal sector. In this paper, we use quantitative theory to study the dynamic implications of informality on wage inequality, human capital accumulation, child labor, and long‐run growth. Our model can generate transitory informality equilibria or informality‐induced poverty traps. Its calibration reveals that the case for the poverty‐trap hypothesis arises: although informality serves to protect low‐skilled workers from extreme poverty in the short run, it prevents income convergence between developed and developing nations in the long run. Then we examine the effectiveness of different development policies to exit the poverty trap. Our numerical experiments show that using means‐tested education subsidies is the most cost‐effective single policy option. However, for longer time horizons, or as the economy gets closer to the poverty trap threshold, combining means‐tested education and wage subsidies is even more effective.