From Maputo to Malabo: public agricultural spending and food security in Africa

Africa is the world’s biggest battleground in the fight against hunger. African governments and the international development community have increasingly focused on finding ways and means to end hunger and ensure the right and access to food for the continent’s burgeoning population. Public spending on agriculture is one such measure. This study examines the role government spending on agriculture has played in enhancing the state of Africa’s food security over the past 25 years. We examine the existing relationship between the two, whether this relationship varies over time and space, and whether it depends on the amount spent. We explore various aspects of food security and check whether spending on research and development follows the same patterns as the overall public agricultural spending. We find some evidence of significant beneficial effects of public agricultural spending on food security but only for the countries which allocate greater proportions of their budgets to agriculture. Spending on agricultural research and development also shows a positive impact on Africa’s food security. There also exists some evidence supporting the temporal effects of public spending. We consider that the Maputo Declaration commitment to allocate at least 10% of public spending to agriculture pertinent.     

The ‘Global Food Crisis’ and the Geopolitics of Food Security

Growing anxieties over food security have recently brought sharp geopolitical overtones to debates about the agro-food sector. Contending that this ‘geopolitical moment’ highlights the mutually constitutive nature of geopolitics and political economies of food, we examine how dominant geopolitical framings of food security extend and deepen neoliberal models of agro-food provisioning, and highlight the need for further attention to these dynamics from political geographers. We develop a preliminary research agenda for further work in the field, focusing on the recent spate of global farmland acquisitions, questions of agro-food governance, the securitisation of hunger and obesity, and the environmental impacts of dominant agro-food systems. Throughout, we highlight the value of a counter-geopolitics of food security for re-situating agro-food politics outside hegemonic policies and institutions, and of the alter-geopolitics of food pursued by communities embodying concrete alternative food production and consumption systems.     

A worldwide analysis of trend in crop yields and yield variability: Evidence from FAO data

The trend in crop yields and yield variability affects food security and impact agricultural and food policies. Recent studies in this area have either focused only on one country or performed global analysis on a handful of crops. We provide the first worldwide analysis of trend and variability for 8088 country-crop yield series taken from the FAO database, employing a robust estimator to cope with the adverse statistical effects of outliers. More than half of the series display a slowdown in yield growth due to a closing of the gap between realised and attainable yields as well as to agricultural policies promoting more sustainable agricultural practices. Around one fourth of the series show also an increase in yield variability as a consequence of climate change and changes in farm management practices. Yield variability is highest in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Middle East and North Africa, where food security may be threatened.     

Analysis of the impact of agricultural R&D investment on food security

This article investigates how agricultural R&D investment affects the food self-sufficiency ratio (SSR). Several studies have argued a causal relationship between agricultural R&D investment and food security. However, most of these studies are based on conceptual logic and few studies have conducted an empirical analysis. This study verifies whether agricultural R&D investment affects the food SSR as a representative indicator of food security. A total of 822 data sets of 41 countries have been used in the analysis in this study and include developed and developing country data over the period 1981–2009. Food self-efficiency is used as a dependent variable, and agricultural R&D investment and other variables are used as explanatory variables. The estimation results show that, first, the cereal SSR and income are in an inverted U-shaped relationship. Second, increases in land productivity increase the cereal SSR and, lastly, the cereal SSR ratio and agricultural R&D investment are in a U-shaped relationship.     

Russia’s food self-sufficiency and food security: an assessment

The article differentiates between self-sufficiency and food security. The impact of Russia’s 2014 food embargo on the food system and food trade is analysed. Domestic production has increased and Russia has become more self-sufficient in food and seafood. In addition, food trading partners have changed. Western food and seafood trading partners have been replaced by trading partners from Asia and Central Asia. There is a high likelihood that the Russian food market has been lost to Western exporters for the foreseeable future. Even after sanctions and countersanctions end, it is difficult to see the pathway for Western food exporters to recapture market share in Russia.     

浅析杭州市余杭区粮食安全问题及对策

粮食安全问题是国家的头等大事,在社会发展和经济发展中具有重要的现实意义。中国人口多、耕地少,粮食一直是国家不可或缺的战略资源,具有重要的政治地位;粮食也是农业发展和物价稳定的标志,具有重要的经济地位。杭州市余杭区受耕地少、人口多、农业技术落后、农业收入低和储备制度不够完善等多方面制约因素的影响,用粮缺口比较大。只有从执行耕地保护措施、提高农业科技含量、实施富农服务政策、完善粮食储备制度几个方面入手,才能保障全区人民的用粮需求,稳定本地区的粮食安全形势。     

重新审视中国粮食生产条件和结构的变化趋势

中国粮食生产条件变化趋势的有利方面表现在需求压力增大,市场前景看好;激励机制日臻完善,种粮积极性得以恢复;粮食增长的资源潜力尚可挖掘,技术潜力不可低估,不利方面表现在人均耕地递减,后备资源不足;灌溉用水日益短缺,环境恶化,生态失衡。加入世界贸易组织之后,粮食生产受到的冲击会加大。粮食生产结构的变化趋势在其组成结构上表现为谷物的绝对优势地位不会变,薯类和豆类比重略有上升;粗粮经得上升,细粮比重下降,     

From the Global Food Crisis to the Age of Austerity: The Anxious Geopolitics of Global Food Security

The impacts of recent food, financial, and energy crises have reinvigorated a geopolitical enframing of global food security that makes foreign development assistance a primary component of national security strategies. This centres elite fears of hunger and underdevelopment and strongly shapes policies and strategies adopted in response. Geopolitical fears of hungry and food insecure populations are compounded by the politics of austerity and cuts to foreign aid budgets and social spending. This paper examines the geopolitics of food security, fear, and austerity as expressed in the rhetoric and strategies of major aid donor governments, especially the US and UK, and proposes an alternative geopolitics that builds from the affective dimensions of hunger, food insecurity, and vulnerability as experienced by the hungry and poor. The example of farmer suicides and agrarian political mobilisation in India demonstrates how this affective alternative geopolitics may be constructed and examined.     

Agricultural intensification, irrigation and the environment in South Asia: Issues and policy options

High population pressure and the rapid pace of human activity including urbanization, industrialization and other economic activities have led to a dwindling supply of arable land per capita and a process of agricultural intensification in South Asia. While this process has significantly increased food production to feed the growing population, it has also entailed considerable damage to the physical environment, including degradation and depletion of natural resources and unsustainable use of land and water resources. This paper employs the analytical tools of economic theory, environmental and ecological economics to model the impact of irrigation in South Asia. It underscores the need for an eclectic approach to policy responses stemming from private and common property rights theories, externality theory and sustainability theory with a view to environmentalizing agricultural development.     

Financial development,political rights,civil liberties and economic growth: Evidence from South Asia

A number of existing studies have examined the theoretical link between financial development and economic growth. Kose et al. (2010), among others, have argued that financial development can affect the extent of the benefits from foreign direct investment. Other studies, such as Huang (2010) have suggested that the quality of political institutions can also affect the level of financial development. This implies that the extent of the benefits from financial development also depend on the quality of governance. However, few empirical studies have considered these issues. By making use of panel data over the period 1970 to 2009, this paper focuses on the impact of the interaction of (i) financial development and foreign direct investment and (ii) financial development and the quality of governance on economic growth in South Asia. Our empirical analysis, suggests that financial development has contributed to an increase in the benefits of FDI in South Asia. In addition, improvement in political rights and civil liberties has also enhanced the benefits of financial development in South Asia.     

由当前食品安全隐患而引发的生态农业建设的思考

近年来,＂瘦肉精＂＂苏丹红＂＂三鹿奶粉＂等食品安全事件接连发生,如何吃得安全,吃得放心,成为百姓极为关注的热点话题。2009年6月1日起正式实施的《中华人民共和国食品安全法》对构建食品安全监管体制提供了法律保障。随着《中华人民共和国食品安全法》的实施,对食品加工、销售等环节将逐步形成有效控制,但纵观食品的生产过程,尤其是结合近年来几次典型食品安全事件的特点,还应看到,对食品安全的控制应结合食品生产的特点,对食品进行＂从农田到餐桌＂的全过程监管。＂从农田到餐桌＂监管理念的产生,体现了人们对食品安全与农业生产之间关系的深刻认识,也为理解当代生态农业建设的意义提供了新角度。     

Weather Index Drought Insurance: An Ex Ante Evaluation for Millet Growers in Niger

In the Sudano-Sahelian region, which includes South Niger, the inter-annual variability of the rainy season is high and irrigation is limited. As a consequence, bad rainy seasons have a massive impact on crop yield and regularly result in food crises. Traditional insurance policies based on crop damage assessment are not available because of asymmetric information and high transaction costs compared to the value of production. We assess the risk mitigation capacity of an alternative form of insurance which has been implemented at a large scale in India since 2003: insurance based on a weather index. We compare the efficiency of various weather indices to increase the expected utility of a representative risk-averse farmer. We show the importance of using plot-level yield data rather than village averages, which bias results due to the presence of idiosyncratic shocks. We also illustrate the need for out-of-sample estimations in order to avoid overfitting. Even with the appropriate index and assuming substantial risk aversion, we find a limited gain of implementing insurance, which roughly corresponds to, or slightly exceeds, the cost observed in India for implementing such insurance policies. However, when we separately treat the plots with and without fertilisers separately, we see that the benefit of insurance is slightly higher in the former case. This suggests that insurance policies may slightly increase the use of risk-increasing inputs such as fertilisers and improved cultivars, and hence improve average yields, which remain very low in the region.     

Urban gardens,agriculture, and water management: Sources of resilience for long-term food security in cities

Food security has always been a key resilience facet for people living in cities. This paper discusses lessons for food security from historic and prehistoric cities. The Chicago school of urban sociology established a modernist understanding of urbanism as an essentialist reality separate from its larger life-support system. However, different urban histories have given rise to a remarkable spatial diversity and temporal variation viewed at the global and long-term scales that are often overlooked in urban scholarship. Drawing on two case studies from widely different historical and cultural contexts – the Classic Maya civilization of the late first millennium AD and Byzantine Constantinople – this paper demonstrates urban farming as a pertinent feature of urban support systems over the long-term and global scales. We show how urban gardens, agriculture, and water management as well as the linked social–ecological memories of how to uphold such practices over time have contributed to long-term food security during eras of energy scarcity. We exemplify with the function of such local blue–green infrastructures during chocks to urban supply lines. We conclude that agricultural production is not “the antithesis of the city," but often an integrated urban activity that contribute to the resilience of cities.     

Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture: Global and regional effects of mitigation, 2000–2080

What are the implications for agriculture of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions? By when and by how much are impacts reduced? Where does it matter most? We investigated these questions within the new A2 emission scenario, recently developed at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis with revised population and gross domestic product projections. Coupling an agro-ecological model to a global food trade model, two distinct sets of climate simulations were analyzed: 1) A non-mitigated scenario, with atmospheric CO₂ concentrations over 800 ppm by 2100; and 2) A mitigation scenario, with CO₂ concentrations stabilized at 550 ppm by 2100. Impacts of climate change on crop yield were evaluated for the period 1990–2080, then used as input for economic analyses. Key trends were computed over the 21st century for food demand, production and trade, focusing on potential monetary (aggregate value added) and human (risk of hunger) impacts. The results from this study suggested that mitigation could positively impact agriculture. With mitigation, global costs of climate change, though relatively small in absolute amounts, were reduced by 75–100%; and the number of additional people at risk of malnutrition was reduced by 80–95%. Significant geographic and temporal differences were found. Regional effects often diverged from global net results, with some regions worse off under mitigation compared to the unmitigated case.     

The dynamic effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on agricultural yield,wages, and food prices in India*

This paper shows that, first, the effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on agricultural yield in India are highly asymmetric: yield falls strongly after droughts, whereas excessive rainfall has only little effects. Second, our key novel finding is that the short-lived yield loss after a widespread drought elicits a persistent decline (increase) in wages (food prices), which lasts for up to five years. Third, affiliation to the same National Sample Survey region (and thus to the same state) seems to be a key determinant of internal migration, whereas distance appears more relevant for food arbitrage trading.     

Geopolitical Maize: Peasant Seeds,Everyday Practices,and Food Security in Mexico

This paper draws from research on small-scale maize production in Mexico’s Central Highland region to discuss the geopolitical implications of everyday agricultural practices. An overwhelming majority of maize farmers in this region, as well as in the country more broadly, continue to cultivate locally adapted maize varieties they have bred themselves – criollo maize is the vernacular term – despite decades of concerted government attempts to effect the widespread adoption of commercially bred and licensed hybrid varieties. This state effort to restructure agricultural systems and food security according to nationalist and capitalist priorities is one tactic in a long and violent struggle for control over peasant land and labour in Mexico. By integrating feminist scholarship in geopolitics and in political ecology, I am following the lead of geographers who regard the materialities of everyday life as a foundation for political tensions and conflicts that are constantly unfolding along intersecting lines of difference. Though geopolitics has rarely turned its attention directly to theories of intimate socio-ecological relations, I argue that the field has much analytical and political leverage to gain by engaging with political ecology, and that feminist geographic imaginaries provide a crucial space in which to do so. This approach allows for an analysis of how a dominant geopolitics of land and agriculture is being undermined through the routine production of criollo maize, revealing new potential for creating broad political alliances with social movements that are currently working toward alternative visions of agriculture and food security.     

Impacts of climate change on food utilization in Nepal

Understanding how long-term climate patterns affect food security outcomes is crucial for crafting food policy in developing countries. In the case of Nepal, existing studies have focused overwhelmingly on food production and supply, but relatively little attention has been paid to understanding how extreme climate trends affect food utilization. This study fills that gap in the literature by examining the effects of temperature and rainfall trends from 1976 to 2005 on individual daily caloric intake and food diversity in Nepal. We use the copula method to jointly estimate the two potentially correlated food utilization outcomes. We find that climate risk negatively affects both outcomes. One percent increase (0.01 points) in climate risk index (index ranges from 0 to 1) leads to a decrease in weighted caloric intake by 8.1 calories (equivalent to 1.1% of average weighted caloric intake of 726 calories) and food diversity by 0.114 points (a reduction of 0.43% reduction of the mean score). We also find that factors such as ecological belts and social capital are strongly correlated with food security. Based on our findings, we recommend policies that attract private and public investments towards improving farmers' access to financial institutions, transportation networks, and risk-mitigation products and programs.     

Economic and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change on Developing Countries

The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia.     

Climatic impacts across agricultural crop yield distributions: An application of quantile regression on rice crops in Andhra Pradesh,India

Climatic impact on agricultural production is a serious concern, as it is directly linked to food security and poverty. Whereas there are empirical studies that examine this issue with parametric approaches focusing on the “mean” level of variables, few studies have addressed climatic impacts in general settings. Given this paucity, we characterize the impacts on crop yield distributions with a non-parametric approach. We examine the case of rice yield in Andhra Pradesh, India, an important state producing rice as a main crop but reported to be vulnerable to climate change. Employing 34 years of data, we apply quantile regressions to untangle the climatic impacts across the quantiles of rice yield, finding three main results. First, substantial heterogeneity in the impacts of climatic variables can be found across the yield distribution. Second, the direction of the climatic impacts on rice yield highly depends on agro-climatic zones. Third, seasonal climatic impacts on rice yield are significant. More specifically, a monsoon-dependent crop is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation, whereas a winter crop remains largely resilient to changes in the levels of climate variables. These findings clarify the idiosyncratic climatic impacts on agriculture in India, and call for location- and season-specific adaptation policies.     

Bioenergy and global land-use change

This is the first article that econometrically estimates the global land-use change impact of bioenergy. Applying time-series analytical mechanisms to fuel, biofuel and agricultural commodity prices and production, we estimate the long-run relationship between energy prices, bioenergy production and the global land-use change. Our results suggest that rising energy prices and bioenergy production significantly contribute to the global land-use change both through the direct and indirect land-use change impact. Globally, the total agricultural area yearly increases by 35 578.1 thousand ha due to increasing oil price, and by 12 125.1 thousand ha due to increasing biofuel production, which corresponds to 0.73% and 0.25% of the total worldwide agricultural area, respectively. Soya land-use change and wheat land-use change have the highest elasticities with respect to both oil price and biofuel production. In contrast, nonbiomass crops (grassland and rice) have negative land-use change elasticities. Region-specific results suggest that South America faces the largest yearly total land-use change associated with oil price increase (+10 600.7 thousand ha), whereas Asia (+8918.6 thousand ha), South America (+4024.9 thousand ha) and North America (+1311.5 thousand ha) have the largest yearly total land-use change associated with increase in biofuel production.