COEFFICIENT CHANGE,PRICE EFFECTS,AND IMPLICIT ELASTICITIES: ESTIMATING MICROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OVER TWO TIME PERIODS

This paper presents and estimates an input–output model in which input coefficient changes are functions of changing prices. The model produces results that mirror the characteristics of input demand functions based on the model of cost minimization subject to producing a desired level of output. It does not rely on the specification of a functional form for input coefficients, and it does not require the use of assumptions regarding the elasticity of substitution. Instead, it allows the actual price and coefficient changes that occur between periods to identify the implicit elasticities and own- and cross-price derivatives. Using this model, it is shown how accurate measures of price effects, including the full array of own and cross-elasticities of demand, can be estimated for models comprising up to 15 sectors given data for only two time periods.     

Does It Make Sense to Apply the Static Open Input–Output Model for Imputation and Structural Decomposition?

This paper aims to stimulate discussion on the question concerning whether input–output (10) analysts should go on applying the static open 10 model in times when data supply and computer capacity allow us to switch to semi-closed 10 models, which are rated as comparative improvements. It is argued that the most frequent of the open 10 model's applications, i.e. imputations and structural decompositions, with a switch to a semi-closed model, lose the properties which make them so attractive: imputations no longer are straightforward assignments of production and primary inputs to the components of total final demand; structural decomposition no longer is an additive assignment of changes of production and primary inputs to sources of structural change. In the author's opinion, imputations and structural decompositions on the basis of the open 10 model should be abandoned.     

HOW MUCH DO EXPORTS CONTRIBUTE TO CHINA'S INCOME GROWTH?

It is a widespread belief that exports, in particular of ‘high-tech’ products, contribute much to China's income growth. This study addresses this issue by applying a structural decomposition analysis to input–output (I–O) data. We employ two extended I–O tables that distinguish processing trade from ordinary exports. The contribution of exports to the value-added growth from 2002 to 2007 is found to be overestimated by 32% when standard I–O tables are used rather than the extended I–O tables. Even more strikingly, the value-added growth that may be attributed to the exports of ‘high-tech’ telecommunication products is overestimated by no less than 63%. A serious overestimation of the contribution to income growth of certain products (such as high-tech products) sends out misleading signals to policymakers. When measured correctly, the true contribution appears to be substantially smaller than is generally believed to be.     

TRADE INTEGRATION,OUTSOURCING AND EMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRIA: A DECOMPOSITION APPROACH

Outsourcing and trade integration of advanced countries is debated with respect to employment effects, in particular for low educated workers – at least in relative terms. We study the employment effects – differentiated by educational attainment levels – of changes in the patterns of trade integration and outsourcing in the Austrian economy over the periods 1995–2000 and 2000–2005 using hierarchical decomposition analysis based on deflated input–output tables. Outsourcing is modeled as changes in the shares of domestically produced intermediates in total intermediates. A similar decomposition of the final demand vector allows us to draw conclusions on the overall employment effects of trade integration. The results suggest that the expected negative employment effects of outsourcing and rising import penetration have been overcompensated by increasing exports. Thus, the overall employment effects of Austrian trade integration have been positive for all educational attainment groups. However, whereas the total effects have been strongest for medium and high educated workers over the period 1995–2000, employment of low educated workers have been strongest and positively affected over the period 2000–2005. This pattern can be explained by a more sluggish export performance together with stronger negative effects of outsourcing and import penetration in medium and high-skill intensive products.     

A Multiplicative Decomposition Method to Identify the Sectoral Changes in Various Developmental Stages: Taiwan, 1966–91

This paper examines the structural changes and identifies sources of sectoral growth in Taiwan, which is an open but rapidly developing economy. A multiplicative version of a decomposition based on the Leontief input–output model is proposed. Empirical results based on deflated data using the shifting base technique show that average changes in final demand coefficients, mainly in household consumption and exports, account for a large portion of sectoral change in most industries. Extensive variations in industrial structure are detected in various developmental stages.     

REFLECTIONS ON THE INOPERABILITY INPUT–OUTPUT MODEL

We argue that the inoperability input–output model is a straightforward – albeit potentially very relevant – application of the standard input–output model. In addition, we propose two less standard input–output approaches as alternatives to take into consideration when analyzing the effects of disasters or disruptions.     

Why do some economies benefit more from climate finance than others? A case study on North-to-South financial flows

The Copenhagen and Paris Agreements, in which developed countries committed to mobilise USD 100 billion a year by 2020, indicate that climate finance will continue to grow. Even though economic development is not the aim of climate finance, climate-related disbursements will generate an economic impact on recipient countries’ economies. This impact will also reach other countries (including climate finance donors) through induced international trade. In this paper, we apply a structural decomposition analysis to study why the economic impact of climate finance varies between countries. We focus on specific climate actions and quantify the contribution of four drivers: value-added intensity, domestic multiplier, foreign multiplier and trade structure. The paper helps identifying the factors with the greatest potential to enhance the economic gains of climate finance in each country. This information can be useful for policy-makers trying to design national strategies that exploit the synergies between climate action and economic development.     

An input–output model of exchange-rate pass-through

The impact of the exchange rate on price formation is often debated through a mechanism called the exchange-rate pass-through. Studies of the pass-through generally rely on econometric analysis implemented on time series data. This study examines pass-through to the domestic price level through an input–output model. The proposed model is implemented on a sample of countries, and a number of different variables connected to the pass-through are examined. A comparison across countries and sectors highlights the importance of the construction sector in price formation. National income is negatively related to the pass-through. A high dependence on intermediate imports implies higher pass-through. Price level volatility and pass-through are positively related; whereas a country’s monetary policy stance has no apparent effect. The effect of exchange-rate volatility is unclear; it is negative for the real effective exchange rate, the connection is very weak in the case of the nominal exchange rate.     

TESTING ASSUMPTIONS MADE IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF INPUT–OUTPUT TABLES

Product input–output (IO) tables are mainly constructed on the basis of product and/or industry technology assumptions. The choice is not trivial and deserves empirical analysis using input and output data at the level of establishments. This paper offers input–output compilers econometric tests to facilitate the construction of tailored hybrid technology-based product IO tables. We provide weighted likelihood ratios of the product and industry technology assumptions. Although the proposed econometric tests are aimed to be used ex ante, we construct four variants of hybrid technology-based product IO tables using establishment data from Andalusia (Spain) and contrast them to the official product IO table and the pure product and industry technology-based tables. Our econometric tests are not valid for industry IO tables.     

Diversity Analysis of Structural Change Based on the Canadian Input–Output Tables

This article presents some of the results of a study conducted at Statistics Canada that involved the analysis of the variability through time of input–output structures. All structures have been analyzed in current and constant prices over the period 1961–84, but only the results about the industries' input structures in current prices are reported in this article. Structural changes are assessed over time horizons of 1, 2 and 5 years, using the Kullback, cross-entropy index formula. Structural changes in the current prices input structure are decomposed into a price and a quantity component, following a new decomposition of the entropy formula. It is shown from that decomposition that the traditional analysis of the variability of constant prices input–output structures may be quite misleading. The authors have found that structural changes generally follow a smooth path through time and tend to be cumulative in the long run, with some cyclical fluctuations in the short term. Some of the structural changes appear to be due to statistical events (establishment moves across industries, changes in methodologies, etc.) rather than reflecting real phenomena. The quantity component of structural change appears to be more important than the price component in almost all time periods and time spans, except when the Canadian economy was subjected to important price shocks during the 1970s.     

A Synthetic Approach to Projecting Input–Output Tables

This paper describes an approach used in the Canadian input–output (IO) accounts, which seeks to enhance the timeliness of the tables. It combines traditional updating methods, balancing techniques and the most recent data. To assess the performance of this approach, aggregate estimates from the synthetic accounts are presented for two years, and compared with estimates from benchmarks and with estimates obtained from a mechanical estimation technique. The results show that most IO components can be estimated with a relatively small estimation error and that substantial accuracy is gained from using the synthetic approach compared with a mechanical technique. Results based on data which are two years away from IO benchmarks are obtained at the cost of large errors. Synthetic estimates of the IO accounts improve the timeliness problem by at least a full year.     

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY CHANGES AND WORKING TIME: THE CASE OF GREECE

In terms of the annual hours worked per employee, Greece ranks first among EU-15 countries and second among OECD countries. In this context, the austerity measures it adopted (as suggested by the EU and IMF) imply, among other things, a reduction in the over-hours. If such reductions were not to be accompanied by increases in labour productivity, output would be reduced considerably. This paper therefore addresses the question: “What change in sectoral labour productivity levels would have been required to deliver the actual change in final demands in Greece between 1995 and 2005, if working hours in each sector had been reduced to their EU averages?” In this framework, we develop a methodology for calculating labour productivity change by sector of economic activity in an input–output context. Next, we apply it to the Greek economy for the time period 1995–2005, the most recent period for which the required data are available. We find that the required productivity changes are the most substantial for the hotels and restaurants sector, followed by machinery manufacturing and the trade sectors.     

STRUCTURAL INTERDEPENDENCE AMONG COLOMBIAN DEPARTMENTS

This paper analyzes structural interdependence among Colombian departments. The results show that Bogotá has a large influence on the other regional economies through the power of its purchases. Additionally, a center–periphery pattern emerges in the spatial concentration of the effects of the hypothetical extraction of any territory. From a policy point of view, the main findings reaffirm the role played by Bogotá in the recent polarization process observed in the regional economies in Colombia. Any policy action oriented to reduce these regional disparities should take into account that, given the structural interdependence among Colombian departments, the effects of new investment in the lagged regions would flow through Bogotá and the major regional economies.