PSEUDO-R2 MEASURES FOR SOME COMMON LIMITED DEPENDENT VARIABLE MODELS

Abstract. A large number of different Pseudo- R ² measures for some common limited dependent variable models are surveyed. Measures include those based solely on the maximized likelihoods with and without the restriction that slope coefficients are zero, those which require further calculations based on parameter estimates of the coefficients and variances and those that are based solely on whether the qualitative predictions of the model are correct or not. The theme of the survey is that while there is no obvious criterion for choosing which Pseudo- R ² to use, if the estimation is in the context of an underlying latent dependent variable model, a case can be made for basing the choice on the strength of the numerical relationship to the OLS- R ² in the latent dependent variable. As such an OLS- R ² can be known in a Monte Carlo simulation, we summarize Monte Carlo results for some important latent dependent variable models (binary probit, ordinal probit and Tobit) and find that a Pseudo- R ² measure due to McKelvey and Zavoina scores consistently well under our criterion. We also very briefly discuss Pseudo- R ² measures for count data, for duration models and for prediction-realization tables.     

Asymptotic efficiencies of spacings tests for goodness of fit

Tests based on higher-order orm-step spacings have been considered in the literature for the goodness of fit problem. This paper studies the asymptotic distribution theory for such tests based on non-overlappingm-step spacings whenm, the length of the step, also increases with the sample sizen, to inifinity. By utilizing the asymptotic distributions under a sequence of close alternatives and studying their relative efficiencies, we try to answer a central question about the choice ofm in relation ton. Efficiency comparisons are made with tests based on overlappingm-step spacings, as well as corresponding chi-square tests.     

A goodness-of-fit test in the multinomial legit model based on weighted squared residuals

The asymptotic (normal) distribution of the sum of weighted squared residuals in the multinomial logit model is derived. The performance of a chi-squared test based on the asymptotic normality is discussed using some empirical examples.     

The asymptotic distribution of the sum of weighted squared residuals in binary choice models

It is claimed by some authors that the distribution of the sum of weighted squared residuals, used as a goodness of fit measure in binary choice models, behaves for large n as a x²_n– k–1 distribution. This claim seems to be based on a false analogy with the well–known Pearson x² statistic for frequency tables with a fixed number of cells and cell sizes tending to infinity. We derive the asymptotic (normal) distribution and show that the approximation by the x² distribution in general will not be valid. A new x² test is proposed based on the asymptotic normality of the measure.     

Monetary Policy and the Zero Bound to Interest Rates: A Review1

Abstract.  This paper reviews the literature on what the zero bound to nominal interest rates implies for the conduct of monetary policy. The aim is to evaluate the risks of hitting the zero bound; and to evaluate policies that are said to be able to reduce that risk, or policies that are proposed as means of helping the economy escape if it is in a zero bound 'trap'. I conclude that policies aimed at 'cure' are arguably more uncertain tools than those aimed at 'prevention', so prevention is a less risky strategy for policymakers. But since the risks of hitting the zero bound seem quite small anyway, and the risks of encountering a deflationary spiral smaller still, it is conceivable that inflation objectives that typify modern monetary regimes already have more than enough insurance built into them to deal with the zero bound problem.     

Minimax character of the two-sample χ2-test

Abstract  We consider the problem of testing equality of the mean vectors of two multivariate normal populations when covariates are present and the covariance matrix is known. As an application of the H unt -S tein theorem it is shown that the χ²-^-test of level a maximizes, among all level a tests, the minimum power on each of the contours where the χ²-^-test has constant power. A corollary is that the χ²-^-test is most stringent level a .     

Elderly activity patterns and demand for transportation in a small city setting2

Although elderly in a small city setting leave their homes for approximately the same purposes and at the same frequency as elderly in metropolitan settings, they are much more dependent on the automobile. A higher proportion of the elderly in a small city drive, but driving status did not have a significant impact on frequency of travel or the spatial extent of travel. Health status was not an important factor when other variables were taken into account, but the older elderly did take fewer trips than the younger elderly. Income, sex and residential location had modest impacts on activity patterns, but the use of a well-established Dial-a-Ride system was minimal. Variation in activity patterns among the elderly in a small city suggested continuity of behavior, a modest decline with age and a strong preference for automobile travel or walking from conveniently located housing complexes.     

p2: a random effects model with covariates for directed graphs

A random effects model is proposed for the analysis of binary dyadic data that represent a social network or directed graph, using nodal and/or dyadic attributes as covariates. The network structure is reflected by modeling the dependence between the relations to and from the same actor or node. Parameter estimates are proposed that are based on an iterated generalized least-squares procedure. An application is presented to a data set on friendship relations between American lawyers.     

Agricultural Prices in Transition Economies: The Case of Bulgaria and Slovenia1,2

The paper studies the extent to which the transition in agricultural prices has satisfactorily been implemented in Bulgaria and Slovenia and the degree to which actual prices reflect the equilibrium conditions of the market. In Bulgaria, a model in which the new and old regime can co-exist, was estimated using the Kalman filter while in Slovenia, a market clearing supply-demand model for each agricultural product is estimated. The quantitative results show that the liberalisation process in agricultural prices is implemented in Bulgaria in a satisfactory way. The way of price determination is shifting from a cost-based approach to a market clearing one. The conclusions for Slovenia suggest that, at least for the period studied, convergence to a market clearing economy, as measured by the state intervention, is not as rapid as desired.     

The Auction Price of Apartments in Moscow: Hedonic Estimation in Disequilibrium1

The purpose of this paper is to see how economic factors determine prices in the previously communist countries undergoing privatization. This does not concern the auctions of big state enterprises where the prices are found to be rigged. In this paper we estimate hedonic price functions based on a unique data set on auction prices of apartments in Moscow. We collected the data ourselves by attending the auctions and gathered data on the characteristics. We estimated the hedonic equations using a disequilibrium approach because no equilibrium prices were observed for large number of apartments that were withdrawn from the auction. We found that, as the privatization of residential housing was carried out, the hedonic price equations fit the data remarkably well.     

倒置A2/O工艺参数及沿程污染物解析

基于正交试验和沿程水质检测,优化倒置A2/O处理低C/N污水工艺参数,分析各单元沿程物质流情况。结果表明,工艺参数优化:水力停留时间10h,回流比200%,污泥龄14d;缺氧池和厌氧池对COD去除量的贡献率为65.0%,好氧池对TP去除量的贡献率为79.3%,缺氧池对TN的去除量的贡献率为12.4%,缺氧池和好氧池对氨氮转化量的贡献率为75.4%。研究结果可为污水处理厂日常参数调控和优化提供实验室依据。     

Income and Expenditure Switching Among the Impoverished During Structural Adjustment in India1

The impoverishment during 1991–1993 was largely a result of policy reforms. In the absence of income switching, the impoverishment would have been greater. The patterns of income switching differed among the three Indian states, viz. Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. Confining the analysis to household expenditure on food, medical care and education, however, little, if any, expenditure switching occurred. To some extent, the effects of household expenditure cuts were compounded by cuts in public expenditure. But, given the aggregate expenditure categories, there is a risk of overstating the effects on the poor. A more fundamental concern nonetheless remains. Given the acute deprivation of a large segment of the rural population, it is imperative that public provision of basic goods and services is strengthened. A case in point is the public distribution system for food (PDS). Despite the revamping, the benefits to the poor have not increased while the subsidy has. Short of drastic reforms, it is unlikely that the cost-effectiveness of the PDS will improve.     

SPSS相关分析与线性回归分析在我国物流业增加值分析中的应用

物流业增加值是反映物流业发展状况的核心指标,是衡量相关企业经营业绩及经济发展水平的重要依据．图而对其进行分析并在此基础上得出的结论具有重要的现实意义。文章以中国物流与采购网公布的有关统计数据为依托．通过SPSS相关分析及线性回归分析,对反映物流业发展状况的物流业增加值、物流固定资产投资、社会物流费用等指标的相互关系进行探讨．得出了一些对于物流业增加值的分析及预测有较强实际意义的结论,可供有关部门参考。     

模拟尾气中NO和O_2在磁场作用下的富集氧化研究

高梯度磁场净化技术(HGMS)是一项高效、新颖的技术,文章利用气体中不同气态分子自身的磁性不同,在HGMS的作用下O2和NO等顺磁性气体会向磁场强度强的部分富集,增大NO在低氧条件下的氧化。实验研究了NO浓度、O2浓度、空塔气速以及填料等操作条件对NO氧化的影响。     

菱铁矿在CO2气氛下热分解反应动力学研究

利用热重分析仪(TGA)研究了菱铁矿在CO₂气氛下热分解反应特性及动力学特性。结果表明:在CO₂气氛下,菱铁矿开始热分解温度为419℃,完全热分解的温度为590℃,且在512℃左右热分解速率最大。CO₂抑制了菱铁矿热分解反应过程,相对于在N2气氛下,菱铁矿完全分解所需要的时间及达到最大反应速率所需要的时间明显滞后。通过模型拟合法得到,菱铁矿在CO₂气氛热分解反应的平均表观活化能为399.9 kJ/mol,指前因子lg A为30.70,遵循的机理模型为随机成核与随后生长模型G(x)=-ln(1-x)。     

基于STIRPAT模型研究南京碳排放的影响因素

在巴黎气候变化大会上,中国政府提出了“2030年左右实现碳达峰,并争取尽快实现”的新阶段目标。城市是能源资源消耗和CO2排放的集聚区域,城市化产生的碳排放是当今中国影响气候变化的重要因素。文章采用南京1997~2017年21年数据,从人口规模、财富水平、城市化水平、技术水平、产业结构、国际贸易水平、科技创新能力七个方面选取更符合南京国情的社会经济变量建立STIRPAT模型,研究影响南京市碳排放的主要因素。结果表明:人口总量和城市化率是影响南京碳排放的主要因素。     

A dynamic multiple equation approach for forecasting PM2.5 pollution in Santiago,Chile

This paper proposes a methodology based on a system of dynamic multiple linear equations that incorporates hourly, daily and annual seasonal characteristics for predicting hourly ${\text{pm}}_{2.5}$ pollution concentrations for 11 meteorological stations in Santiago, Chile. It is demonstrated that the proposed model has the potential to match or even surpass the accuracy of competing nonlinear forecasting models in terms of both fit and predictive ability. In addition, the model is successful at predicting various categories of high concentration events, between 53% and 76% of mid-range events, and around 90% of extreme-range events on average across all stations. This forecasting model is considered a useful tool for helping government authorities to anticipate critical episodes of poor air quality so as to avoid the detrimental economic and health impacts of extreme pollution levels.     

How foreign direct investment affects CO2 emission levels in the Chinese manufacturing industry: Evidence from panel data

This study explores how inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) affect a country’s carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission levels. To investigate this relationship, we use panel data (2002–2015) from the 28 subsectors of the Chinese manufacturing sector. We also perform panel framework analysis to verify the characteristics of the panel data before establishing the panel estimator meant to test the relationships between carbon dioxide emissions, FDI inflows, industrial GDP, industry openness, net domestic fixed capital stock and cleaner production. The results of the panel framework analysis suggest the need to eliminate dynamic panel bias and produce more efficient and consistent parameter estimates. To do so, we use System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimators with time dummies. Ultimately, the results of the analysis show that FDI is a positive predictor of environmental quality in the host country, which serves as evidence of the halo effect that FDI reduces CO₂ emission levels. The study also finds evidence that industrial GDP and cleaner production improve environmental quality. However, the domestic capital stock has a negative effect on environmental quality. By showing that past carbon dioxide emissions significantly influence current emissions, our findings demonstrate the importance of consistency and persistence in efforts to reduce those emissions. Accordingly, we discuss some policy implications based on these results.     

高渗油藏濮城沙一下CO_2/水交替混相驱优化注入参数研究

本论文旨在通过CO2/水交替注入的数值模拟研究,进行CO2/水交替注入的参数优化,从而为导试验矿场的实施提供理论依据,达到特高含水油藏的CO2/水交替驱提高采收率的目的。