Inflation Volatility with Regime Switching

This paper presents a new approach to model U.S. inflation dynamics by allowing regime switching in an unobserved components stochastic volatility framework. We use a modified particle filter to construct likelihood and estimate the model using MLE. The number of regimes is determined based on a bootstrap. We find that a model with three regimes and regime‐dependent constant volatilities has superior performance. In addition, we show that since 2000:II, U.S. inflation has entered a regime with moderate volatility where most of the volatility comes from transitory shocks.     

美国振兴先进制造业的政策措施及启示

从20世纪70年代开始,美国制造业的大批量生产模式开始走下坡路。日本经济的兴起,以丰田汽车为代表的日本汽车工业新的生产和管理模式的成功,向世界表明大批量生产的威力已到了尽头。为振兴先进制造业,美国分别从技术、财政、信息网络、教育、企业运作模式、企业联盟等方面制定了一系列政策与计划,对其进行支持。美国所采取的这些政策措施,对于我国在“十一五”规划中如何更有效促进先进制造业的发展,具有重要的启示。     

A nonlinear multivariate error components analysis of technology and specific factor productivity growth with an application to the U.S. Airlines

This study outlines a nonlinear model of technology and specific factor productivity growth and uses the model to analyze a new panel of sixteen domestic carriers in the U.S. airline industry over 35 quarters from 1970.I to 1978.III. We outline mapping procedures which allow construction of the production surfaces implied by the translog cost function used in our analysis. To our knowledge this study is the first to estimate such a general nonlinear multivariate error components model using full-information maximum likelihood.     

Public transit bus procurement: The role of energy prices,regulation and federal subsidies

The U.S. public transit system represents a multi-billion dollar industry that provides essential transit services to millions of urban residents. We study the market for new transit buses that features a set of non-profit transit agencies purchasing buses primarily from a few domestic bus makers. In contrast with private passenger vehicles, the fuel economy of public buses has not improved during the last thirty years and is irresponsive to fuel price changes. To understand these findings, we build a model of bus fleet management decisions of public transit agencies that yields testable hypotheses. Our empirical analysis of bus fleet turnover and capital investment highlights the role of energy prices, environmental regulations, and the “Buy America” mandate associated with receiving federal funding to purchase public transit buses.     

Estimating heterogeneous capacity and capacity utilization in a multi-species fishery

We use a stochastic production frontier model to investigate the presence of heterogeneous production and its impact on fleet capacity and capacity utilization in a multi-species fishery. We propose a new fleet capacity estimate that incorporates complete information on the stochastic differences between vessel-specific technical efficiency distributions. Results indicate that ignoring heterogeneity in production technologies within a multi-species fishery as well as the complete distribution of a vessel’s technical efficiency score, may lead to erroneous fleet-wide production profiles and estimates of capacity. Our new estimate of capacity enables out-of-sample production predictions which may be useful to policy makers.     

Multilateral adjustment,regime switching and real exchange rate dynamics

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of multilateral adjustment to U.S. external imbalances in driving bilateral real exchange rate movements by developing a new regime-switching model that consists of a Markov-switching model with a time-varying transition matrix that depends on a threshold variable. Consequently, the dynamics of the real exchange rate can be modeled in the context of two regimes: one in which multilateral adjustment to large U.S. external imbalances is an important factor driving movements in the real exchange rate and the second in which the real exchange rate is driven mainly by country-specific macroeconomic fundamentals. We apply this model to the bilateral real Canada–U.S. dollar exchange rate and compare its performance to several other alternative models. All of the models are estimated using a Bayesian approach. Our findings suggest that during periods of large U.S. imbalances, an exchange rate model for the real Canada–U.S. dollar exchange rate should allow for multilateral adjustment effects.     

Cross listing,disclosure regimes,and trading volume sensitivity to stock returns

In this paper, we propose that investors of cross-listed firms use trading volume to revise their perception of firms’ value. We further propose that firms that cross list from low-disclosure regimes (usually from emerging economies) have higher trading volume sensitivity to returns than those that cross list from high-disclosure regimes (usually from developed economies), as those from low-disclosure regimes have relatively lax and less stringent disclosure requirements. We use a sample of foreign firms that are cross listed in the U.S. as exchange-listed American Depositary Receipts, adopted the international financial reporting standards (formerly international accounting standards), and filed Form 20-F reconciliation with the U.S. Securities and Exchanges Commission during the period of 1994–2005. Using these firms and a matched-sample of U.S. firms based on exchange, industry and firm size, we document results supporting our hypotheses. Our results have implications for policy makers, regulators and academics.     

Gasoline prices,transport costs,and the U.S. business cycles

The effects of gasoline prices on the U.S. business cycles are investigated. In order to distinguish between gasoline supply and gasoline demand shocks, the price of gasoline is endogenously determined through a transportation sector that uses gasoline as an input of production. The model is estimated for the U.S. economy using five macroeconomic time series, including data on transport costs and gasoline prices. The results show that although standard shocks in the literature (e.g., technology shocks, monetary policy shocks) have significant effects on the U.S. business cycles in the long run, gasoline supply and demand shocks play an important role in the short run.     

On testing weak separability

A new framework for testing for the existence of a consistent aggregator for a subset of inputs in a production function is developed in terms of the variable profit function. In contrast to the Berndt–Christensen framework, in which the parametric restrictions required to attain weak separability also impose unwanted restrictions on the form of the aggregator, the aggregator function has a flexible functional form. Consequently this procedure should permit a less restrictive test of separability or aggregation. Application of the procedure to the data for U.S. manufacturing assuming a production function involving two labour inputs (blue- and white-collar workers) and two capital inputs (structures and equipment) leads to the conclusion that there does not exist a consistent aggregator for labor whereas there is some mild support for the existence of a consistent aggregator for capital.     

汽车轮毂应用再生铝关键技术研究前景分析

近年来,我国再生铝生产量跃居世界第二,仅次于美国。但我国再生铝生产管理和技术水平却远远落后于发达国家,绝大多数原本高品质的废弃铝材再生后被降级使用,从而造成资源的巨大浪费,对环境的二次污染问题十分突出。开发研究废弃铝优质再生、环境友好型的生产技术,提高再生铝生产管理水平,大幅提升再生铝的使用价值,已成为当前再生铝生产及技术发展的方向。     

The duration of contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing

This paper develops new evidence on the hazard function for strike duration, and on cyclical changes in this function, using data on contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing industries. A flexible duration model is estimated, and it is found that the hazard rate is generally a U-shaped function of strike age. The level of industrial production is found to have a significant positive effect on the hazard rate: strike duration is countercyclical. A convenient parametric model of heterogeneity and duration dependence is introduced, in which the logit of the hazard rate is a polynomial function of strike age, up to a random individual effect drawn from a beta distribution. Estimates of this ‘beta-logit’ model indicate that it is difficult to detect the influence of unobserved heterogeneity on the aggregate hazard function for strike duration.     

A study of multiple-output production functions: Klein's railroad study revisited

Using two sets of U.S. railroad data with two outputs and three inputs, we estimated production function parameters via the system of derived input demand functions, and via the dual cost function. The results indicate increasing returns to scale, and a violation of required convexity for the production function.     

Technology,industry, and the question of national policy

This paper examines the need for national legislation to guide technological development in the United States. It describes the breadth to which federal governmental policy already affects U.S. industrial growth and the ways this involvement inhibits the U.S. productive capacity. Two contributing factors, problems at the government—industry interface and failures in the U.S. educational system, are discussed. It is concluded that the U.S. has already, through copious legislation and bureaucratic excesses, diluted the strength of its technological and industrial growth. It is also concluded that the college of technology, a relatively new institution in the U.S. educational system, is the correct source of guidance for technological and industrial development.     

美国蔬菜产业的扶持政策

介绍了美国蔬菜生产的概况。通过对美国零散分布于相关农业政策中有关蔬菜生产扶持的政策进行提炼和分析,介绍了美国对蔬菜生产进行扶持的主要措施与做法。     

A profit function approach to measuring productivity growth: The case of U.S. manufacturing

This article proposes a method of estimating productivity growth using an estimated profit function. The approach has the advantage of incorporating endogenous changes in profit-maximizing output levels that would result from productivity changes. As with the cost function, it can be easily adapted to accomodate the presence of quasi-fixed factors. The article first develops the methodology and shows the equivalence between the proposed measure and other measures of productivity based on cost or production functions. An empirical application to the measurement of productivity changes in the U.S. manufacturing industry is presented next. The profit-function measure is compared to a nonparametric measure based on the same data and to the results of other studies of U.S. manufacturing.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through J. deMelo.     

Factors Influencing the Product Customization Decision Process of Foreign Industrial Product Manufacturers

Abstract

This study explores the product adaptation decision process of “successful” foreign industrial product manufacturers with operations in the United States. A “successful” foreign firm is operationally defined as one utilizing at least 75 percent of its U.S. production capacity. Such firms are accorded the status of “experts” and an attempt is made to study their decision making process regarding the introduction of locally designed products in the U.S. An induced rule based expert system outlines the sequential roles played by the nationality of parent firm, level of decentralization in marketing decision making, mode of entry into the U.S., length of time with manufacturing operations in the U.S., size of the U.S. subsidiary, and extent of R & D undertaken in the U.S. by the subsidiary. Such a formal system would serve senior management of the developing organization as a permanent and ever expanding repository of expertise and as an effective management training tool. The study also illustrates the use and relevance of expert system technology in an international marketing application.     

Testing for Linearity

The problem of testing for linearity and the number of regimes in the context of self‐exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models is reviewed. We describe least‐squares methods of estimation and inference. The primary complication is that the testing problem is non‐standard, due to the presence of parameters which are only defined under the alternative, so the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics is non‐standard. Simulation methods to calculate asymptotic and bootstrap distributions are presented. As the sampling distributions are quite sensitive to conditional heteroskedasticity in the error, careful modeling of the conditional variance is necessary for accurate inference on the conditional mean. We illustrate these methods with two applications — annual sunspot means and monthly U.S. industrial production. We find that annual sunspots and monthly industrial production are SETAR(2) processes.     

New Technology in Unionized Firms: Advantages of Mandatory Bargaining

U.S. Labor Law currently allows employers whose work forces are unionized to introduce new technologies without bargaining over the decision to do so. This forces unions to adopt inefficient strategies when negotiating collective bargaining agreements in an effort to minimize the impact of technological change on their members. Allowing unions to bargain over the decision to introduce new technologies would obviate their having to resort to these inefficient strategies. In addition, it might increase the likelihood of employees suggesting alterations in production processes that would increase the rate of technological change. For these reasons, this article advocates amending U.S. labor law to require employers to bargain over the introduction of new technologies.     

Canonical ridge and econometrics of joint production

This paper is a continuation of the author's earlier work (1969) in which canonical correlation analysis was used to directly estimate a joint production function as an implicit function of all outputs and inputs. A major difficulty with canonical correlation analysis in this context is its numerical instability when the underlying (economic) data are nearly collinear. This can be partly overcome by considering an adaptation of ridge regression concepts to canonical correlations. The hybrid may be named a ‘canonical ridge’ model. For illustration we discuss a trans-log joint production function based on U.S. (1945-1969) private domestic economy first studied by Christensen, Jorgenson and Lau (1973).     

ANALYZING CULTURAL STEREOTYPES IN MULTINATIONAL BUSINESS: UNITED STATES AND AUSTRALIA

As U.S. business becomes more international, so does U.S. management education. Executive development programmes offer courses in the U.S. and abroad to managers from many nations. As part of the transfer of U.S. management methods, the concepts, techniques and beliefs taught in these programmes may not be easily accepted, especially by foreign managers. Careful examination of cultural differences in attitudes and opinions is a necessary step in the successful transfer of management technology. This paper compares U.S. and Australian managers' values, attitudes, beliefs and opinions on a wide range of topics using a modified version of Schein's Public Opinion Questionnaire. Our findings suggest that there are common business management views as well as national differences among managers in the U.S. and Australia.