The Hierarchical Repeat Sales Model for Granular Commercial Real Estate and Residential Price Indices

This paper concerns the estimation of granular property price indices in commercial real estate and residential markets. We specify and apply a repeat sales model with multiple stochastic log price trends having a hierarchical additive structure: One common log price trend and cluster specific log price trends in deviation from the common trend. Moreover, we assume that the error terms potentially have a heavy tailed (t) distribution to effectively deal with outliers. We apply the hierarchical repeat sales model on commercial properties in the Philadelphia/Baltimore region and on residential properties in a small part of Amsterdam. The results show that the hierarchical repeat sales model provides reliable indices on a very detailed level based on a small number of observations. The estimated degrees of freedom for the t-distribution is small, largely rejecting the commonly made assumption of normality of the error term.     

国有土地收购价格的内涵及评估探析

建立和实施土地收购储备制度,土地收购性质均为强制性的买卖关系,而土地收购价评估值则应具有市场性.国有出让土地和国家划拨土地权力状况的差异,决定了收购价格内涵的差异.土地收购评估只是对原用途的评估,而不应与规划用途或改变用途后的价格联系起来.     

Controlling for Quality in House Price Indices

Given the importance of house prices it is not surprising that house price indices are used for many purposes. One of the factors that differentiates these indices is the house price determinants (such as structural characteristics and neighborhood quality) that are accounted for—that is, held constant. Indices are usually generated from house price regressions. It is shown that, regardless of the desired level of accounting, it is necessary to control for all significant determinants of house prices in these regressions to obtain unbiased estimates of the growth in house prices. An empirical example shows that not controlling for neighborhood quality can lead to substantial biases in estimates of house price appreciation rates even if the index does not account for this factor.     

Estimating Transaction-Based Price Indices of Local Commercial Real Estate Markets Using Public Assessment Data

This study examines the feasibility of constructing reliable commercial property price indices using property tax records. We employ the Clapp and Giacotto (Journal of American Statistical Association, 87(418), 300–306, 1992) assessed-value method to estimate price indices for commercial properties in Florida. The estimated Florida commercial property price index is compared to the Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and to the transaction-based index (TBI) produced at MIT. Our results are promising, suggesting that this widely-available data source can be used to produce commercial property price indices for a variety of precise market locations and specific investor segments. A secondary but interesting objective of this paper is to use our rich and comprehensive database to examine the price performance of two specific subsets of properties in more detail. First, we narrow our range to focus on just the office sector for Florida. We compare price movements for the Florida office sector with the comparable CPPI. Estimates produce very similar price movements providing support to both methods. Second, we contrast the price performance of higher- and lower-valued properties and reject the hypothesis that their periodic price index levels are equal. The mean price changes of Florida commercial properties assessed at $2.5 million and above are observed to be slightly higher than for properties assessed below $2.5 million, although not statistically different. In particular, higher-valued properties had higher mean price changes relative to lower-valued properties during periods of economic expansion. This economic difference represents an important contribution toward beginning to understand the relative performance of smaller and investment-grade commercial properties.     

采矿权出让评估中存在的问题与建议

采矿权出让评估中存在着不符合矿业权评估规范、未依据新的财税法规、矿产品销售价格不实,评估报告披露不充分以及矿业权评估规范修订不够及时等诸多问题。本文针对这些问题提出了相应的建议,以期对矿业权的评估工作有所帮助,从而对防止国有矿权资产流失也有所帮助。     

The London Commercial Property Price Index

Of the top ten global commercial property markets, London’s has had the highest transaction turnover for the past decade according to Real Capital Analytics. Its prime real estate is part of every major European and US institutional investor’s portfolio and London’s market has the most developed commercial property derivatives market outside of the US. Yet, no transaction-based index exists for the London office market. The aim of this study is to fill that gap. Using a comprehensive dataset of transactions from Estates Gazette interactive and Real Capital Analytics, this paper analyzes different repeat-sales estimation strategies and noise filters to produce a quarterly index series from the first quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 2011. In addition, the index series is measured against IPD’s London capital valuation series and the MIT Center for Real Estate New York office market repeat sales index series. Results show that the market turn of the first financial crisis is clearly visible in the transactions-based indices, and that this index leads the capital valuation series by about a year. London’s office market seems to have been affected by the crisis considerably earlier than New York’s market and correlations between the two markets are low.     

船舶评估重置全价的确定

由于船舶资产专业性强,在评估该类资产时,评估人员因知识面限制,对如何确定船舶重置全价常感到无所适从.尤其对大型船舶,因涉及商业机密,无法进行直接询价,即便询到价格,其准确度也无从把握.本文详细介绍了船舶资产重置全价应包含的内容及确定过程,供评估人员在有关工作中参考.     

金融企业价值评估的模型选择

负债的不确定性使现金流量折现模型难以对金融企业进行价值评估,主要原因是现金流难以计算.即使不采用加权资本成本直接评估金融企业的权益,金融企业投资的复杂性也使估计现金流存在障碍.而如果以股利代替自由现金流,就可以避免这一问题的困扰,从而可以在收益途径的框架内考察金融企业的价值.     

The Characteristics and Valuation of Loss Reserves of Property Casualty Insurers

This study examines characteristics and valuation of claim loss reserves of property casualty insurers. Using SEC disclosures of revisions (development) in loss reserve estimates, we document substantial serial correlation in loss reserve development, indicating that reported loss reserves do not fully reflect available information, consistent with management exercising discretion over reported loss reserves. We find that loss reserve development reported one year after the balance sheet date has significant explanatory power for firm value incremental to book value of equity and earnings, suggesting investors at least partially identify management's influence on reported loss reserves, and adjust firm values accordingly.     

基于知识产权视角的无形资产评估问题研究

一、无形资产的界定与知识产权的转化 （一）无形资产的界定 无形资产评估首先应界定其评估对象。无形资产迄今为止尚无一致的,科学的定义,基本上是采用描述性定义并通过列举来界定无形资产。     

马来西亚不动产持有税税基评估制度介绍

一．马来西亚不动产持有税税制概述马来西亚不动产税的征收分为联邦税．州税和地区税三个层次。其中,联邦的不动产税包括印花税（Stamp duty）、遗产税（Estateduty）、不动产所得税（Realproperty gain tax）等：州不动产税包括年租税（Annual rent）、土地出让税（Premium）等;地区不动产税包括不动产持有税（Rating或Assessment rates）、开发税（Development charge）等。     

Three New Real Estate Price Indices for Geneva,Switzerland

This paper develops constant-quality price indices for three categories of real estate-apartment buildings, vacant land, and condominiums—for the city of Geneva, Switzerland. We use both the hedonic and repeat sales models to estimate the price level and, in turn, the rate of price change. The general pattern of each series suggests that real estate prices in Geneva were fairly stable throughout the 1970s, increased sharply during the 1980s, but gave back some of these gains in the early 1990s. Interestingly, the sharp rise in prices in the second half of the 1980s is very similar to that found in some regions of the United States. We also consider the problem, implicit in the repeat sales method, of revisions in previously estimated price indices as additional data become available in later years.     

质押为目的的知识产权价值评估特性分析

以质押为目的的知识产权价值评估的业务性质,决定了该项评估业务的特殊性,并对评估师的执业能力提出更高的要求。本文通过分析以质押为目的的知识产权价值评估在评估目的、标的物特征、价值因素、评估程序和评估信息披露等五个方面的特殊性,提出评估师专业能力相关要求。     

Arbitrage Free Price Bounds for Property Derivatives

Market frictions inhibit the perfect replication of property derivatives, and define the property spread as a price measure in the incomplete real estate market. We identify transaction costs, transaction time, and short sale constraints as the main frictions in this market. Based on these frictions, we set up a framework of arbitrage free price bounds for property derivatives. In turn, we use observed derivative prices to determine the implied cost of the frictions. Lastly, we verify these values by using other research, which confirms the accuracy of our framework.     

黄金价格趋势与投资策略

2010年国际黄金市场发展趋势向好,黄金战略价值不断提升,其价格受到技术规律、结构分布和政策战略的推助。经济全球化使得世界经济和国际金融发生了实质性的变化,基础生产型环境已经转向资本投资型态势,进而呈现出规律性、传统性和结构性的巨大变异。同时,金融危机的概念、形式和影响也有了极大的变化,传统金融危机与现代金融危机的比较基础、原因和前     

中国物价水平波动的内生性及未来趋势分析

实证结果表明,1998年以来的经济增长本身导致了价格水平的内生性波动,转型阶段的中国,因受中等收入陷阱的影响使得未来价格存在持续的非平稳性。     

知识产权评估的支撑与研发

我们已经进入了知识经济时代．根据世界知识产权组织（Wodd Intellec-tual Property Organization,WIPO）统计资料．各国之间通过以专利技术为主的许可贸易方式成交的贸易额由1965年的20亿美元增长到1995年的2500亿美元,