Measuring and Understanding Productivity in UK Market Services

Many productivity studies, if they cover the service sector,commonly enter a caveat that the data are uncertain or justlook at manufacturing. This paper attempts to clarify what UKmarket-service-sector data are available, whether they shouldbe treated as inaccurate, and what conceptual problems mightmake measuring service-sector output so hard. Our overall conclusionis that most problems surround financial intermediation andbusiness services. In financial intermediation, national accountsconventions and adjustments make the output data very hard tointerpret. In business services many of the output measuresare employment based. Elsewhere, for example, retail and wholesaletrade, transport, and hotels and restaurants, the main problemis, in practice, lack of collected deflators. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: g.a.crespi{at}sussex.ac.uk; chiara.criscuolo{at}ons.gsi.gov.uk;j.e.haskel{at}qmul.ac.uk; d.hawkes{at}ioe.ac.uk     

Why is Productivity so Dispersed?

Many papers have documented wide variations in productivityeven in narrowly defined industries. Some have argued that thisprimarily reflects measurement problems due, for example, tocomparing across different products. Others argue that thisreflects persistent differences in performance due, for example,to management. This paper looks at productivity differencesnot within an industry but within a firm. We use data on productivityof different branches within lines of business of a major UK-basedwholesaler. Using these productivity data for comparisons is,we argue, more likely to compare like with like than comparingbetween firms. We document sustained differences in productivityeven between branches within the same line of business. We alsodiscuss the extent to which they are correlated with differencesin management and find that such differences ‘account’for around 40 per cent of the difference in productivity. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: r.griffith{at}ifs.org.uk; j.e.haskel{at}qmul.ac.uk;a.neely{at}cranfield.ac.uk     

Improving Productivity--Opening the Black Box

Hourly productivity levels in the UK still remain behind thosein some competitor countries. The government devotes much policyattention to enhancing productivity and continues to emphasiseits five drivers—investment, innovation, skills, enterprise,and competition. This article argues that it is investment broadlydefined that is the key to sustained productivity improvement.The emphasis should be on improving productivity simultaneouslywith improving the quality of production. Only thus will thegains be widely shared. In achieving these aims there are twoprerequisites for policy-makers. The first is to ensure bettercoordination of policy than appears to be currently achievedby the present departmental structures in Whitehall. The secondis to recognize fully the long and complex chain of causationthat can be triggered by pulling on one policy lever. Such complexitycan only be fully understood by more research on what actuallygoes on inside the black box of the organization. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: ken.mayhew{at}ox.ac.uk; a.neely{at}cranfield.ac.uk     

From Skills Revolution to Productivity Miracle--Not as easy as it Sounds?

This article surveys the potential impact of skill on productivity.It opens with a review of the utility of productivity as a measureof systemic economic performance, and then goes on to explorethe oft-assumed close and strong relationship between skillsand productivity. The importance of other factors and typesof investment is stressed. These complementary elements maybe at least as important as skill in boosting performance, andtheir absence may negate the impact of public investment ineducation and training. The ability of economic developmentpolicy, particularly as it relates to the Regional DevelopmentAgencies, to address skills and economic development is assessed,and questions are raised about what type and level of skillmight have the largest impact on economic performance. In conclusion,we discuss the demands that new policy approaches are makingupon the machinery and personnel of government. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: keepej{at}cardiff.ac.uk; ken.mayhew{at}pmb.ox.ac.uk;paynej3{at}cardiff.ac.uk     

Human Resource Management Policies and Productivity: New Evidence from An Econometric Case Study

First we distinguish various approaches used by economists toassess the impact of human resource management practices onproductivity and then we briefly review and illustrate studiesthat represent different approaches. In the main part of thepaper we illustrate the econometric case study method, by usingnew data to analyse a case from retail trade and by emulatingan approach used in an earlier study. Consistent with theorywe find that when employees have opportunities to participate,and to receive appropriate information and pertinent rewards,a one standard deviation increase of the first principal componentscore would increase productivity by 1 per cent. Our findingsimply that there are benefits to innovative work practices,even in settings where employees do simple tasks and employeesare relatively low-skilled. Since our findings are similar tothose contained in a previous study, our results also indicatethe value of replication studies. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: djones{at}hamilton.edu; panu.kalmi{at}hse.fi; antti.kauhanen{at}hse.fi     

Job Protection: The Macho Hypothesis

This paper shows that the stringency of employment protectionin Mediterranean countries can be partly explained by culturalvalues embedded in religion. Both the security provided by thislegislation and its redistributive effects in favour of themale breadwinner insiders fit into the framework of Mediterraneanreligions. First, international individual surveys allow usto document that Catholics and Muslims are more likely to agreewith traditional gender division of work than Protestants andthe non-religious. Second, we develop a political economy modelpredicting that employment protection should be more stringentin countries where there is a larger share of insiders supportiveof traditional family values. We then show that this predictionis supported by empirical evidence on OECD countries over theperiod 1970–99. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: yann.algan{at}ens.fr; cahuc{at}ensae.fr     

The Interactions between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy

This paper studies the interactions of fiscal policy and monetarypolicy when they stabilize a single economy against shocks ina dynamic setting. If both policy-makers are benevolent, then,in our model, the best outcome is achieved when monetary policydoes nearly all of the stabilization. If the monetary authoritiesare benevolent, but the fiscal authority discounts the future,or aims for an excessive level of output, then a Nash equilibriumwill result in large welfare losses: after an inflation shockthere will be excessively tight monetary policy, excessive fiscalexpansion, and a rapid accumulation of public debt. However,if, in these circumstances, there is a regime of fiscal leadership,then the outcome will be very nearly as good as when both policy-makersare benevolent. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: t.kirsanova{at}exeter.ac.uk; jari.stehn{at}bnc.ox.ac.uk;david.vines{at}economics.oxford.ac.uk     

Risks at Work: The Demand and Supply Sides of Government Redistribution

To comprehend how the welfare state adjusts to economic shocksit is important to get a handle on both the genesis of popularpreferences and the institutional incentives for governmentsto respond to these preferences. This paper attempts to do both,using a general theoretical framework and detailed data at boththe individual and national levels. In a first step, we focuson how risk exposure and income are related to preferences forredistribution. To test our hypotheses, we extract detailedrisk-exposure measures from labour-force surveys and marry themto cross-national opinion survey data. Results from analysisof these data attest to the great importance of risks withinthe labour market in shaping popular preferences for redistributiveefforts by governments. In a second step, we turn our attentionto the supply side of government redistribution. Institutions,we argue, mediate governments' reactions to redistributionaldemands following economic shocks. Using time-series cross-countrydata, we demonstrate how national training systems, and electoralinstitutions, as well as partisanship, shape government responses. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: tom{at}wz-berlin.de; iversen{at}fas.harvard.edu;pr9{at}duke.edu     

Fiscal Stabilization Policy and Fiscal Institutions

In this paper we analyse counter-cyclical fiscal policy withinthe context of a microfounded analysis of business-cycle stabilization.We show that tax and spending instruments can have a usefulcounter-cyclical role, even after allowing for the distortionarynature of the instruments and the need for debt sustainability.A critical barrier to the use of fiscal instruments may be politicaleconomy concerns, and we survey recent suggestions involvingalternative fiscal policy institutions. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: c.b.leith{at}socsci.gla.ac.uk; s.wren-lewis{at}exeter.ac.uk     

Welfare-State Retrenchment: The Partisan Effect Revisited

This paper aims to shed light on the role of the ‘ideology’of political parties in shaping the evolution of the welfarestate in 18 developed democracies, by providing empirical findingson the determinants of social-programme entitlements and socialspending over the period 1981–99. The paper shows thatstructural change is a major determinant of the extent of socialprotection. Our results suggest that overall spending is drivenup by structural change. On the other hand, strong structuralchange has a negative influence on welfare entitlements measuredby the net rate of sickness insurance. Partisan influence playsan important role in the dynamics of the welfare state. Left-winggovernments strengthen the positive effect of shocks on aggregatesocial expenditure, while right-wing governments undertake evenstronger cutbacks in replacement rates as a reaction to structuralchange. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: bruno.amable{at}ens.fr; donatella.gatti{at}cepremap.cnrs.fr;jan.schumacher{at}wiwi.uni-regensburg.de     

Welfare States in Hard Times

Welfare states have been subject to a host of conflicting pressuresfrom high unemployment, rising income inequality, populationaging, tax competition, rising budget deficits and debts, slowgrowth, and fears that economic dynamism was being stifled byexcessive taxes and benefit levels. Nevertheless total spendingon welfare has edged up in many countries and cuts in ratesof benefit have generally been fairly modest. The generosityof the welfare state has an enormous influence on poverty andincome inequality and still appears to be popular in most ofEurope. Suggestions that society would benefit from reducedworking time must reckon with the fact that it is paid workwhich generates the tax revenue required to fund welfare spending. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: donatella.gatti{at}cepremap.cnrs.fr; andrew.glyn{at}economics.oxford.ac.uk     

The Economics of Pensions

This paper sets out the economic analytics of pensions. Afterintroductory discussion, successive sections consider the effectsof different pension arrangements on labour markets, on nationalsavings and growth, and on the distribution of burdens and benefits.These areas are controversial and politically highly salient.While we are open about expressing our own views, the main purposeof the paper is to set out the analytical process by which wereach them, to enable readers to form their own conclusions. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: n.barr{at}lse.ac.uk; pdiamond{at}mit.edu     

The Structural Pension Reform in Chile: Effects, Comparisons with Other Latin American Reforms, and Lessons

Chile pioneered a structural reform in Latin America that privatizedits public pension system and influenced similar reforms inanother nine countries. Twenty-five years later, this articleevaluates the macroeconomic, microeconomic, and social effectsof this reform in Chile and the other countries in the region,and extracts lessons from those experiences. Fiscal costs ofthe reform have been high and prolonged, exceeded capital accumulation,and had a negative impact on national savings, but Chile's reformhas contributed to the development of capital markets; employer'scontributions were eliminated or reduced in half of the countriesand the worker's share in the total contribution averages 65per cent; competition is afflicted by a small number of administratorsand a high level of concentration; administrative costs arehigh and stagnant; capital returns are fair but declining; portfoliodiversification has been achieved only in Chile and Peru; labour-forcecoverage has declined in all ten countries, and gender and incomeinequalities have expanded. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: aarenas{at}dipres.gob.cl; cmesa{at}usa.net     

Prudence or Profligacy: Deficits, Debt, and Fiscal Consolidation

Over the last quarter century, public finances have been underpressure in most OECD countries as deficits and debts rose underthe pressure of relatively slow growth and high interest rates.This, in turn, has affected the welfare state, since effortsat containing deficits have often been concentrated on publicexpenditure. Much of the literature argues that this is desirable,since curbing deficits via tax increases seldom succeeds. Amedium-term survey of OECD country experience suggests a lessclear-cut conclusion. In a number of countries which were ableto curb debt/GDP ratios, the bulk of the adjustment did, indeed,come from spending cuts (but was, also, in some cases helpedby rapid growth and/or currency depreciation). In several, however,tax increases also appear to have succeeded in reducing deficitsand debt. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: andrea.boltho{at}magd.ox.ac.uk; andrew.glyn{at}economics.oxford.ac.uk     

Pension Challenges and Pension Reforms in Oecd Countries

The 30 OECD member countries have very diverse pension systems.Current old-age public pension spending varies between lessthan 1 and more than 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).Public spending on pensions per person aged 65 or over variesfrom less than 15 to more than 40 per cent of economy-wide GDPper head. For workers entering the labour market today, thetarget pension from all mandatory sources for an average earnervaries between 30 and 100 per cent of individual earnings. Recentpension reforms have a number of common themes. First, pensioneligibility conditions have been tightened. Second, the indexationof pensions in payment has become less generous. Third, somepension schemes link benefit levels to changes in life expectancy.Finally, a number of countries have introduced defined-contributionpensions: privately managed schemes where the pension benefitdepends on contributions and investment returns. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: peter.whiteford{at}oecd.org; edward.whitehouse{at}oecd.org     

Management Practices, Work--L ife Balance, and Productivity: A Review of Some Recent Evidence

Increasing product-market competition is believed to be a drivingforce behind higher productivity. However, even those criticsof globalization who accept this argument claim that there isa hard trade-off because tougher competition comes at the priceof reducing work—life balance (WLB). Optimists, by contrast,argue that competition can spur better WLB practices and thereforehigher productivity, so there is a ‘win—win’situation. To address this issue we use an innovative surveytool to collect the first international data on management practicesand WLB practices, surveying 732 medium-sized manufacturingfirms in the USA, France, Germany, and the UK. We find thatthe USA has the best management practices but the worst work—lifebalance. When we look within countries, however, we reject thepessimistic ‘trade-off’ model. First, WLB outcomesare significantly associated with better management, so thatwell-run firms are both more productive and offer better conditionsfor their employees. Second, tougher competition increases averagemanagement quality but does not negatively affect employees'working environment. As with many other studies, better WLBpractices are associated with significantly higher productivity.This relationship disappears, however, after controlling forthe overall quality of management. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: nbloom{at}stanford.edu; j.vanreenen{at}lse.ac.uk     

Retirement in the UK

In common with other OECD countries, the UK experienced morethan two decades of declining labour-market activity among oldermen from the 1970s to the early 1990s, a trend that has onlyrecently shown signs of being reversed. Retirement decisionsare heavily shaped by institutional context and in the UK thishas led to there being two distinct groups with very different‘retirement’ experiences. At the top of the wealthdistribution, early retirement has typically been influencedby private, occupational pensions; at the bottom of the wealthdistribution individuals are even more likely to be not workingin their 50s, but do not typically define themselves as retired,and draw on income support, or more usually, disability benefits.Policy-makers keen to increase effective retirement ages willneed to consider the very different circumstances of these twogroups. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: j.banks{at}ifs.org.uk; sarah.smith{at}bristol.ac.uk     

Fiscal Policy in Emu: Towards a Sustainability and Growth Pact?

This paper takes stock of the academic and policy discussionson the fiscal institutions of EMU, confronts the framework inplace with what is known of the desirable properties of fiscalpolicy in a monetary union, and discusses possible improvements.We start with a discussion of three requirements for the fiscalframework of a monetary union: it should be conducive to publicfinance sustainability, leave room for stabilization at thenational level, and encourage structural reform. We then examinehow the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) measures up to theserequirements and find that it has mostly failed on all threeaccounts. Whether the 2005 reform of the SGP fixes those deficienciesremains an open issue. To this end, we propose five buildingblocks towards an effective SGP: a better concept of sustainability;harmonized general government balance sheets; appropriate targets;refined procedures; and better institutions. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: benoit.coeure{at}free.fr; jpf{at}bruegel.org     

Monetary and Fiscal Theories of the Price Level: The Irreconcilable Differences

The fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) has attracted muchattention but disagreement remains concerning its defining characteristics.Some writers have emphasized implications regarding interest-ratepegging and determinacy of rational expectations solutions,whereas others have stressed its capacity to generate equilibriain which price-level trajectories mimic those of bonds and differdrastically from those of money supplies. We argue that theFTPL attained prominence precisely because it appeared to providea theory whose implications differ greatly from conventionalmonetary analysis; accordingly we review monetarist writingsto identify the primary distinctions. In addition, we reviewrecent findings concerning learnability—and thereforeplausibility—of competing rational expectations equilibria.These indicate that when FTPL and monetarist equilibria differ,the latter are more plausible in the vast majority of cases.Under Ricardian assumptions, necessary for clear distinctions,theoretical analysis indicates that fiscal and monetary coordinationis not necessary for macroeconomic stability. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: bmccallum{at}cmu.edu; edward.nelson{at}stls.frb.org     

Financial Restraints in a Mature Welfare State--The Case of Denmark

The Scandinavian welfare states are mature in the sense of havinga high level of standards for public provisions of welfare servicesas well as a high replacement level for income transfers, especiallyfor low-income groups. In this welfare model, individuals havebasic rights to welfare services and social transfers independentlyof their ability to pay, their labour-market history, etc. Thefinancial viability of the model relies on a high tax burdenand a high level of labour-force participation for males andfemales. Evaluated on the basis of international comparisonsof income levels and inequality, the model has performed well.In a forward-looking perspective, however, the welfare modelfaces problems that may put the financial viability of the modelat risk. Two important challenges are demographic changes andthe so-called growth dilemma (increased demand for servicesand leisure). We discuss these issues using Denmark as an exampleand argue that while these two challenges may be of the sameorder of magnitude, it is easier to propose solutions to thedemographic challenges than to the growth dilemma which areconsistent with the basic principles of the welfare state. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: tandersen{at}econ.au.dk; lhp{at}dreammodel.dk