试析人民币对外升值与对内贬值并存

2002年以来,人民币出现了对外升值和对内贬值并存的现象。在国际美元贬值和国内流动性过剩的背景下,这一货币现象得到了强化。当然,这一货币现象是实际经济运行的反映。主要线索是,中国的出口导向型经济强势增长,国际收支持续顺差带来巨额外汇储备,并进而推动国内货币供应量的扩张。当汇率和资本流动都受到管制时,压抑的对外升值趋势会成为对内贬值的直接原因。而对内贬值的概念已不是传统意义上的CPI上涨,而是包括资产价格膨胀在内的广义通货膨胀。这对于宏观经济平衡和货币政策制定者来说,都是一场新的挑战。     

An augmented P-star model of Indian inflation

ABSTRACT

An augmented P-Star model is estimated and tested to identify the drivers of inflation in India. The model includes monetary and non-monetary factors, demand-pull and cost-push factors, and domestic as well as foreign factors. The results show that inflation in India is driven by a combination of monetary factors and non-monetary factors, some of which affect inflation on the supply side while others operate on the demand side. It turns out, however, that inflation in India is determined more by domestic rather than foreign factors.     

依法治税存在的问题及对策

依法治税是新时期做好税收工作的基本点。建立符合社会主义市场经济体制要求的税收立法机制;完善税收法律体制,树立法律权威;强化税收执法和税收司法,有效制止和惩治税收违法犯罪活动是现阶段依法治税的目标和任务。     

中国通胀惯性特征与货币政策启示

通胀惯性与货币政策效果紧密相关。本文应用具有统计无偏性的"Grid Bootstrap"估计法和未知断点结构突变检验法,研究了1980—2007年中国通货膨胀的惯性特征。本文发现,在低通胀环境下通货膨胀仍然呈现相当高的惯性特征,这暗示着我国货币政策的滞后效应依然非常明显,通货膨胀对政策变化的反应速度缓慢。计量结果说明,中央银行至少应该在出现通胀压力前一年采取措施,来应对高通胀惯性环境下的政策滞后效应。因此,新时期货币当局不仅需要保持对通胀抬头趋势的适度警觉,而且应该关注高通胀惯性对政策效果的影响。     

中国的通货膨胀惯性与通货膨胀不确定性——基于有限理性NKPC模型的分析

本文拓展有限理性菲利普斯曲线模型并结合中国参数进行校准,然后利用校准模型研究中国通货膨胀惯性特征及其与通货膨胀不确定性之间的关系。结果显示,有限理性菲利普斯曲线模型能很好地模拟出与中国实际通货膨胀惯性类似的特征。进一步研究还发现,研究样本期间,中国通货膨胀惯性总体上呈现先上升而逐渐下降的驼峰型特征,而且与通货膨胀预期不确定性存在正向相关关系。这些发现意味着,我国中央银行货币政策滞后效应正在缩短,而为了进一步降低通胀惯性并提高货币政策有效性,引导通货膨胀预期保持稳定是一大途径。     

The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework

This paper investigates the effect of inflation uncertainty innovations on inflation over time by considering the monthly United States data for the time period 1976–2006. In order to investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty innovation on inflation, a Stochastic Volatility in Mean model (SVM) has been employed. SVM models are generally used to capture the innovation to inflation uncertainty, which cannot be achieved in the framework of popular deterministic ARCH type of models. Empirical evidence provided here suggests that innovations in inflation volatility increases inflation persistently. This evidence is robust across various definitions of inflation and different sub-periods.     

中国通胀水平与通胀不确定性:马尔柯夫域变分析

本文使用中国1985年以来月度数据,基于马尔柯夫域变模型考察了通胀水平及其与不确定性的关系。我们将通胀的不确定性分解为两类成分:未来通胀冲击的不确定性和未来通胀均值域变的不确定性。研究结果表明,高的通胀水平伴随着这两类不确定性成分的同时增大,这意味着通胀成本很大程度上和不确定性的成本联系在一起,稳定价格和维持低通胀环境可能成为央行减少不确定性的重要手段。本文结果还表明,域变模型相对线性自回归模型以及ARCH模型更好地刻画了中国通胀率过程的特点。以往应用中忽略了这种域变特点可能导致通胀预测值相对于真实值的系统性偏差,或者通胀不确定性的错误估计。     

国外的生态税收政策与我国生态税制建设构想

20世纪90年代以来,一些发达国家为了解决环境问题,纷纷展开生态税收改革,建立起了比较完善的生态税制,使税收在环境保护中发挥了巨大作用.我国应借鉴其先进经验,建立并完善我国的生态税制,以实现经济的可持续发展.     

刍议信息化纳税信息服务的优化

我国的纳税信息服务(即税收宣传)与税收咨询工作存在着受传统模式影响较深、内容相对简单、效率相对低下等问题,应借鉴国际先进经验,强化人力资源的培训,构建统一服务平台,完善质量监管体系等,以实现信息化纳税信息服务的优化.     

通货膨胀与物价目标

针对近年来全国各界对通货膨胀的关切和“物价总水平基本稳定”的提法,本文认为有些认识和思路值得反复理清,包括：如何界定通货膨胀及如何看待通货膨胀;通货膨胀与经济增长如何匹配;中国可能期望的,也是难以避免的通货膨胀率是什么水平。文章提出治理通货膨胀要服从核心任务,应建立现实的通货膨胀观念,并在对保持物价总水平基本稳定的提法进行多视角诠释的基础上,给出了控制物价的几点政策建议。     

How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective

This article examines the dynamic behavior of the inflation rate for eight Asian countries using a quantile unit root test. We advocate a three-way definition of inflation targeting based on perfect, imperfect and zero credibility and advance the analysis by incorporating a fully-fledged adoption of inflation targeting. In doing so, we offer new insights by showing that the credibility of inflation targeting and the alternative monetary policy frameworks in Asia are imperfect, except for Malaysia and South Korea under a fully-fledged adoption of inflation targeting. In contrast to past studies that focus on the mean-reversion in inflation rates, we also consider trend-reversion and find that Asian inflation targeting countries have been building up their monetary policy credibility more than the non- inflation targeting countries in terms of a faster rate of decline in inflation rate changes. Our results generally indicate the presence of mean reversion at the lower quantiles only. Where stationarity is present, we find evidence of a varied speed of adjustment process across the quantiles. Finally, we determine the threshold levels whereby inflation becomes stationary and demonstrate that Asian inflation rates generally display stationary behavior during periods of inflation declining or slowing down.     

税收管理中的寻租博弈与治理路径

博弈论作为现代经济问题研究的一项重要工具,可用来揭示税收管理中的各种对抗与合作规律,减少管理决策的错误,降低管理成本,提高管理效率。税收活动作为政府调节社会经济活动的手段,由于不同的利益主体存在信息不对称,易诱发"设租"与"寻租"行为。如何合理界定"租金"价值,设计科学的治理路径以抑制税收管理过程中的寻租行为,提高资源配置和使用效率,意义重大。     

在科学发展观下建立绿色税收体系

随着经济的发展,社会环境与经济发展矛盾日益尖锐,在科学发展观下建立绿色税收体系的提出正是为了顺应社会发展趋势,为缓解和解决这一矛盾提供有效的途径。     

The dynamics of persistence in US inflation

Using a recently developed time-series approach, we show that post-WWII US inflation became highly persistent during the ‘Great Inflation’ period, and then switched back to a low persistence process during 1984, and has remained stationary until the present day.     

Does taxation have real effects on agricultural output? Theory and empirical evidence from China

China has a long history of taxing agriculture, with special levies on output. Whether farm households are taxed on a lump-sum basis or as a proportion of output is an important issue. This paper develops a theoretical model to understand better the effects of the lump-sum and proportional taxation on agricultural output. It then empirically investigates the predictions using tax and output data on Chinese agriculture. The theoretical model predicts that lump-sum taxation affects only consumption, while proportional taxation simultaneously affects consumption, capital inputs and final output. Although the main tax policy targeted output, our results suggest that taxation had only a modest impact on output since it was effectively applied as lump sum taxation brought about by localized levies and taxes.     

依法治税和纳税服务——基于国家税收和公共税收的视角

依法治税和纳税服务是现阶段税收的两大任务。对两者的认识,不能孤立地或对立地看,而是要在社会主义市场经济下的税收应是国家税收和公共税收的统一的视角下加以把握。从这一认识出发,我们就能真正做到坚持依法治税,优化纳税服务,服务科学发展,就能探索出一条中国特色社会主义市场经济条件下的纳税服务新路。