银行监管对银行业结构演进的影响——基于市场准入与经营范围监管视角的研究

文章以银行业集中度作为银行业结构的代理变量,实证检验了市场准入和经营范围的监管对一国银行业结构的影响。研究结果表明:(1)对国内银行市场准入的限制会增加银行业集中度,加强外资银行准入的限制则会降低银行业集中度;(2)发展中国家对于银行从事证券业务的限制更敏感;(3)发达国家对于银行从事保险和房地产业务的限制更敏感。拓展模型结果显示,放松外资银行准入会强化银行经营范围监管对银行业集中度的边际效应。     

银行业发展、异质企业与技术创新

基于2001-2013年沪深A股1471家上市公司及31个省级银行业的非平衡面板数据,实证研究银行业发展对企业创新的作用机制,结果表明:(1)各地区中银行业竞争程度越激烈,地区企业技术创新越高,且这种正向效应在民营企业中更明显;(2)中小型银行在各地区银行业占比越高,企业的技术创新水平越高,且这种正向效应在民营企业中更为明显;(3)各地区银行业中非国有银行发展水平越高,越能够促进民营企业技术创新,但这种影响对国有企业却是负向的.     

内地与香港银行业发展战略比较研究

本文根据产业组织理论,对内地与香港银行业的市场结构、企业行为和经营绩效进行了比较研究。研究结构表明:(1)内地与香港银行业的市场结构较为相似,呈寡头垄断结构,市场特点都是垄断竞争的;(2 )内地银行在经营上是全能型的,而香港银行则各有所长,特色鲜明;(3 )内地银行通过经营战略的调整,能够逐步缩小与香港银行间效益的差距。     

当前我国商业银行操作风险度量研究

操作风险是银行业三大风险之一,有效控制操作风险是完善银行操作风险管理体系、提高经营管理水平的客观要求:而实现操作风险的准确度量,则是有效防范操作风险的重要前提.目前我国对操作风险的研究还处于探索阶段,今后应在以下五个方面加强研究:(1)制定操作风险管理政策;(2)设计操作风险管理组织架构及再造业务流程;(3)建立内部控制自我评价体系;(4)建立操作风险损失数据库;(5)探索操作风险度量模型.     

竞争之于银行信贷结构调整是双刃剑吗?——中国利率市场化进程的微观证据

在"十三五"规划大力强调金融机构改革的形势下,2015年名义上走完最后进程的利率市场化是否会推动银行业竞争环境改变,促使银行信贷结构调整以提高其经营效率,成为银行业深化改革的重要现实问题。为此,本文探讨了利率市场化进程中竞争影响商业银行信贷结构的作用机制,并通过对2007—2014年中国银行业微观数据的分析,得到如下结论:(1)竞争有利于调整银行信贷结构,但会促使银行追求信贷扩张的冒险行为;(2)中小规模、低流动性水平、低资本充足率水平的银行的信贷结构调整更积极,并且更易寻求信贷扩张;(3)竞争加剧促使银行进一步增加对长期贷款的信贷资源配置。最后本文从改善银行业市场环境和银行业监管措施方面提出了相应建议。     

我国商业银行外资参股效应再研究——基于DEA模型的银行稳定性分析

文章基于我国13家商业银行2002-2009年面板数据和DEA-Malmquist生产率指数,测算了银行业全要素生产效率变动情况,揭示了外资参股对我国商业银行稳定性的影响。研究发现:(1)研究组样本银行年度效率指数总体呈上升趋势,而对照组"明星"银行则无明显变化;(2)研究组银行与对照组银行年度效率指数差值由负转正,说明外资参股比例较高的银行生产效率有明显提升;(3)对照组银行是我国的"明星"银行,其整体生产效率均值最高,其次为股份制银行组,最后为国有银行组;(4)商业银行生产效率在外资参股磨合期内出现普遍下降,但磨合期结束后有明显提升;(5)美国金融危机对我国银行业生产效率产生了显著的负面影响。     

基于CoVaR模型的上市商业银行系统性风险溢出研究

近年来,关于系统性金融风险的研究层出不穷,“风险溢出效应”备受关注.本文以中国金融行业中的银行业为研究对象,在VaR方法的基础上,运用CoVaR模型和分位数回归方法预测了中国银行业对系统性金融风险的贡献程度及银行间的风险溢出程度.研究发现:(1)当股票市场波动率增强时,股份制银行更加敏感;(2)国有制银行对于“期限利差”的敏感系数基本为正,而股份制银行基本为负;(3)银行存在系统性风险溢出效应,其中国有制银行的风险贡献度比股份制银行高;(4)银行间也存在风险溢出效应,其中国有银行发生风险时,对其他的股份制银行有一定的溢出效应.     

外资银行对国内银行业"组合绩效"的影响机制

文章梳理了外资银行的进入对东道国银行业绩效的影响机制,并以我国银行业中全国性商业银行、地方城市商业银行、信用社以及中外合资银行为样本,就外资银行进入对样本银行的经营费用、盈利能力和银行效率等"组合绩效"指标的影响进行实证分析。在对1998-2005年79家国内银行的面板数据进行了分类估计后发现:(1)外资银行进入的增加导致国内银行管理费用增加;(2)外资银行进入的增加促使国内银行的盈利能力提高;(3)伴随着外资银行的进入,银行竞争不断加剧银行效率也呈现出降低的趋势。     

银行业结构与中国全要素生产率——基于商业银行分省数据和双向距离函数的再检验

本文研究了中国银行业结构与全要素生产率增长之间的关系。为得到更加稳健的结论,在已有研究基础上,本文从几个方面做了改进:(1)根据1999—2012年中国所有大型商业银行、股份制商业银行以及城市商业银行分省数据,计算分省的银行业集中度指标(HHI和CR4)衡量银行业结构;(2)采用参数方法,根据双向距离函数(产出和投入可同时调整)计算1999—2012年中国分省的全要素生产率。(3)结合中国的现实情况,考虑了信贷环境和信贷资源供给对二者关系的影响。研究发现:(1)与以往研究不同,在大多数情况下,我们未发现银行业集中度下降能显著提高全要素生产率,即两者之间的负向关系在多数情况下并不显著。(2)信贷环境和信贷资源供给能显著影响银行业集中度与全要素生产率增长之间的关系。当信贷资源供给越高或信贷环境越差时,两者之间的负向关系越不可能出现;当信贷资源供给较低,同时信贷环境较好时,两者之间的负向关系在一定程度上显著,即银行业集中度下降有利于提高全要素生产率增长在一定条件下成立。     

企业家意识

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Bank lending channel in India: evidence from state-level analysis

This paper seeks to answer two questions: first, do monetary policy shocks affect the size of bank loans, and second, do bank loans affect real economic activity? Using annual panel data on the Indian states from 1996 to 2008, we find that money demand shocks have large and statistically significant impact on bank loans. Furthermore, using money demand shocks as instruments for bank lending à la Driscoll (J Monet Econ 51:451–471, 2004), we find an economically large and statistically significant effect of bank loans on output. Our findings, to some extent, reflect the dominant role played by banks in the India’s overall financial system.     

Fixed versus variable rate loans under regret aversion

This paper examines the optimal mix of fixed and variable rate loans of a competitive bank facing funding cost uncertainty, where the bank is not only risk averse but also regret averse. Regret aversion is characterized by a utility function that includes disutility from having chosen ex-post suboptimal alternatives. We show that a negative spread between fixed and variable rate loans is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the dominance of variable rate loans over fixed rate loans. If the bank optimally extends both fixed and variable rate loans, the total amount of loans depends neither on the bank's regret aversion nor on the funding cost uncertainty. The bank, however, optimally lends less should it be forced to assume the entire funding cost uncertainty by exclusively extending fixed rate loans. Finally, using a two-state example, we show that the bank optimally extends more (less) fixed rate loans than in the case of pure risk aversion if the high (low) marginal cost of funds is more likely to prevail. Regret aversion as such plays a crucial role in determining the bank's optimal choice between fixed and variable rate loans.     

中国的金融发展与经济增长:基于微观数据的实证研究

通过对1993—2001年中国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究可以发现,即使对于上市公司,银行贷款仍然构成其最重要的外部融资渠道,并且支撑着企业活跃的投资活动。然而,企业获得贷款的结构不合理,对贷款的利用效率日益下降,除了贷款以外,金融体系所提供的其他金融工具的种类和数量都明显不足。这说明银行业从提供融资支持上推动了整体经济的发展,但在优化资本流向、提高资源配置效率方面的功能尚不完善。     

P2P Loans and bank loans,the chicken and the egg,what causes what?: further evidence from a bootstrap panel granger causality test

This study attempts to re-investigate the causal link between bank loans and Peer-to-Peer (P2P) loans from China using data sets from eight areas (i.e., Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan) over 2014M1-2016M4. We apply a bootstrap panel causality analysis that considers both cross-dependency and heterogeneity across cities. The empirical results indicate a unidirectional Granger causality running from P2P loans to bank loans for Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Shandong; feedback between P2P loans and bank loads for Jiangsu only and independence for the other three areas (i.e. Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan).     

Money Creation in the Eurozone: An Empirical Assessment of the Endogenous and the Exogenous Money Theories

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to strengthen our understanding of the money creation process in the Eurozone for 1999–2016 period, through an empirical assessment of two main monetary theories, namely the (Post Keynesian) endogenous money theory and the (Monetarist) exogenous money theory. By applying a VAR and VECM methodology, we analyse the causal relationship among monetary reserves (or monetary base), bank deposits and bank loans. Our empirical analysis supports several propositions of the Post Keynesian endogenous money theory since (i) bank loans determine bank deposits, and (ii) bank deposits in turn determine monetary reserves.     

Meltdown Iceland: Lessons on the World Financial Crisis from a Small Bankrupt Island

The paper reports that no statistically significant empirical relationship can be shown between total bank credit and the US broad money supply in the period after 1995. It argues that the growing prevalence of non-bank deposits in the form of mutual money market funds and asset securitization are the main culprits for this result. Prior to financial liberalization, the connection between total bank credit and broad money supply was simple enough: new bank deposits were created when banks made loans and were extinguished when loans were paid back. In banks' consolidated balance sheet, total deposits made up total liabilities and were basically equal to the broad money supply. However, in the age of financial liberalization not all deposits bank loans created returned as deposits, whether in banks or non-banks, as deposits could be swapped for non-deposit liabilities without a corresponding draw down on the asset side. Moreover, loans could be extinguished in banks' balance sheets through asset securitization.     

银行关系、政治关联与上市公司银行贷款的可获得性——基于我国上市公司的实证分析

以2001—2011年我国2373家上市公司为研究样本,检验了政治关联和银行关系对其银行贷款可获得性的影响。研究结果显示:对于所有的上市企业而言,政治关联和银行关系均有助于增强其银行贷款的可获得性,但同时具有两种关系反而不利于企业获得银行贷款;对于国有企业而言,建立政治关联或银行关系均有利于其获得长期贷款,但对短期贷款的获得没有显著影响;对于民营企业而言,政治关联有利于其获得长期借款,银行关系能显著增强其获得短期贷款的能力。     

Fixed versus variable rate loans under state-dependent preferences

This paper examines the optimal mix of fixed and variable rate loans of a competitive bank facing uncertain funding costs. The bank's preferences are state-dependent in that the utility function depends on a state variable. We show that the optimal amount of loans extended by the bank depends neither on the state-dependent preferences of the bank, nor on the joint distribution of the marginal cost of funds and the state variable. The bank, however, optimally lends less should it be forced to assume all interest rate risk by exclusively extending fixed rate loans. We show further that a non-positive spread between fixed and variable rate loans is no longer a necessary and sufficient condition for the bank to refrain from extending fixed rate loans should the marginal cost of funds be correlated with the state variable in the sense of expectation dependence. State-dependent preferences as such play a pivotal role in determining the bank's optimal choice between fixed and variable rate loans.     

A QUEST FOR UNFETTERED CREDIT: HOW MONETARY POLICY DRIVES CREDIT RISK TRANSFER OF STRUCTURED FINANCE PRODUCTS

This study examines the effects of monetary policy contractions on bank loans to households and firms and instruments in three different credit risk transfer (CRT) capital markets over two separate time periods (1995–2006 and 2007–2015). The findings show that in both periods, banks decrease business lending but increase lending to consumers through a combination of mortgage, auto, credit card, and student loans from more liquidity produced by consumer‐related CRT activity. Additional results reveal relative CRT movements toward securitized mortgages from bank mortgage debt over both periods and toward securitized and insured business loans from bank business debt in the latter period, which suggest vulnerabilities among interconnected credit markets. (JEL E44, E51, G21, G23)     

USE OF THE MONEY SUPPLY IN THE CONDUCT OF JAPAN'S MONETARY POLICY: RE‐EXAMINING THE TIME‐SERIES EVIDENCE*

This paper re‐examines whether the money supply (M2 + CDs) can predict future economic activity in Japan, using recent data to the end of 2003. I find that the linkage between M2 and income or prices has largely disappeared since the late 1990s. Evidence suggests that (i) time deposit behaviour is primarily responsible for the breakdown in the M2–income relationship; (ii) bank loans also lost their predictive content in the late 1990s; and (iii) there has been a close link between time deposits and bank loans. Non‐performing loans problems and ongoing restructuring may be root causes of these findings.