ECB tapering: beware of global consequences

• ? The ECB's scaling back of its QE programme in 2018 could be more disruptive to global financial markets than the Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet unwinding. ECB bond purchases led Eurozone private investors to inject a massive amount of funds into global debt markets over the last few years. As the ECB reduces its stimulus, Eurozone investors will gradually pare back the build‐up of their foreign debt exposures. The full unwinding of ECB QE will see investors rebalance toward domestic debt securities .
• ? We expect Eurozone investors to continue injecting funds into global debt markets as the ECB proceeds to wind down its QE, but they will do so at a much slower pace. Based on our projections, European purchases of foreign debt securities this year will total €200 billion – down by half from the average €400 billion over the last three years. Such a large reduction raises the risk of disruption in some markets.
• ? How did we get here? Spillovers from the ECB's QE were much more pronounced than during Fed's. European private investors that sold bonds to the ECB during its QE programme faced a commensurate shortage of domestic debt assets. In contrast to the US experience, ECB buying far exceeded new domestic issuance, inducing private investors to sharply increase purchases of overseas debt securities.
• ? Ultimately, we expect European investors to seek to restore the share of domestic debt securities in their portfolios to a level in line with the historical norm, after the proportion of their domestic debt holdings fell by 7pp since the programme began. The rebalancing is likely to start in earnest once the ECB stops buying (and eventually starts selling) securities. As a result, the global debt issuance boom is likely to lose steam, given the extent to which it has relied on the support of European investors.

     

Ownership structure and firm performance in emerging markets: A comparative meta-analysis of East European EU member states,Russia and China

Using a total of 4425 estimates collected from 204 previous studies, this paper presents a meta-analysis performed to compare East European EU member states, Russia and China in terms of the relationship between ownership structure and firm performance. The results indicate that, as the standard theory predicts, state ownership negatively influences the performance of firms the state invests in, while the presence of domestic outside investors and foreign investors as company owners positively affects firm performance irrespective of the difference in country/region. Furthermore, we also found that ownership of managers tends to exert a positive impact on the performance of their owned firms. Overall, however, the linkage between corporate ownership and performance is weak. This finding implies that, in comparison with advanced economies, management discipline by investors is less sufficient in emerging markets.     

Carbon Disclosure,Contextual Factors,and Information Asymmetry: The Case of Physical Risk Reporting

Abstract

The paper focusses on the reporting of climate change-related physical risks. Drawing on data from the CDP questionnaire for 717 European companies over three years (2011–2013) we find that information asymmetry is generally smaller when firms report about their physical risks. Furthermore, we find that reporting of a higher exposure to physical risks is associated with lower information asymmetry for firms falling under the regulation of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, whereas for other firms the direction of the relationship reverses. We can rule out that our results are driven by other climate change-related risk disclosures and by disclosures about opportunities arising from climate change. This study is not only relevant because it attests the materiality of climate change-related physical risks. Moreover, we show how a contextual factor – in this study: whether a company falls under climate change-related regulation – moderates the direction of the relationship between reported information and information asymmetry.     

Corporate sustainability and financial performance: Collective reputation as moderator of the relationship between environmental performance and firm market value

Markets value superior corporate sustainability performance in part because investors use a firm's environmental performance as a signal of desirable but difficult-to-observe attributes, such as the firm's integrity capacity. Yet a signaling conflict can arise when a firm belongs to an organizational form that has a collective reputation for being unethical. In such circumstances, the firm's environmental performance may no longer credibly signal its underlying integrity capacity, leading markets to adjust downward the value they would otherwise place on the firm's environmental performance. Using longitudinal data on South Korean firms, we find that improvements in firm environmental performance lead to smaller increases in market values for firms belonging to a poorly reputed organizational form. However, firms can partially recover lost value by adopting firm features that reduce the signaling conflict, thereby restoring the notion of corporate sustainability performance driving firm market values.     

Sustainability Management within Supply Chains – A Resource Dependence View

Proceeding from three basic concepts of resource dependence theory – organizational effectiveness, interdependence and external control – we conducted a multiple‐case study to investigate factors that facilitate and hinder sustainability management within supply chains. Our empirical observations highlight that focal firms do not necessarily transfer their own corporate sustainability agendas into control mechanisms for managing the sustainability of their suppliers. Based on this insight, we develop a new theory that explains how intra‐ and interorganizational sustainability management is affected by a firm's business case for promoting sustainability, control mechanisms, trade‐offs, trust and market liberalization. The theory offers new insights into drivers and barriers for effective interorganizational sustainability management, whereas previous theories could not fully explain the reasons for diverging sustainability management practices in supply chains. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Government intervention in European mergers and acquisitions

The increasing globalization of economies has leveraged protectionist attitudes in different countries during the last decades. In the context of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A), national governments have intervened to “protect” big domestic firms and their industries from foreign bidders. Despite the potential for severe implications of these actions on the internationalization of firms and development of markets, the research in this area is relatively scarce, and we still know very little about the real causes and consequences of government intervention. In this paper, we study government opposition to cross-border European M&A during the period 1997–2017, an era of important changes in Europe. Using an event study methodology, we examine abnormal returns for targets and their rivals in the time period prior to actual intervention to gauge if investors perceive intervened deals as harmful events for the industry, which could justify government intervention. We use a hand collected sample of 1,574 EU15 rival firms for 48 mergers, of which 18 experience government intervention. Entropy balanced regression models show that rivals of intervened targets earn significantly lower returns relative to rivals of non-intervened targets on deal announcement. Nevertheless, rivals’ abnormal returns are not negative, suggesting that intervened deals are not perceived ex ante as harmful for industry competitiveness. The results are more consistent with investors’ ability to identify likely blocked deals, which puts downward pressure on abnormal returns to both the target companies and their rivals. These findings indicate that government interventions against foreign bidders seem to have an economic cost in the sector that is anticipated by the investors.     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: Emerging sell‐off to restrain global growth

• Emerging financial markets have come under renewed downward pressure since mid‐January, with evidence of a general retreat by investors.
• There have been significant currency depreciations in several countries, and interest rates have been forced up in Turkey, India, South Africa and Brazil – with further hikes likely. Emerging stocks have plunged.
• This has prompted a sequence of downgrades to our growth forecasts for the emergers. We now expect Indian growth to be 0.2% lower this year than previously, South African growth 0.6% lower and Turkish growth 1.3% lower. In China and Brazil, growth in 2015 has been cut by around 0.5%.
• Weaker emerging growth will also constrain activity in the advanced economies. Emerging markets account for a modest share of advanced economy exports, but their share in export growth is higher. For the Eurozone, heavily dependent on external demand, this share has been 30–40% since 2010.
• Meanwhile, European listed firms get almost 25% of their revenues from emergers, and US firms 15% (while exports to emergers are 10% and 5% of GDP respectively). There has also been a sharp rise in bank loans to emergers in recent years.
• The biggest risks for global growth relate to China, which dwarfs the other emergers, and where concerns about possible financial instability, especially linked to shadow banking, have risen this year.
• Thanks to robust growth in the US, Japan and the UK, we still expect global growth to pick up in 2014, but downside risks have risen over the past month. With the US Fed set to press on with ‘tapering’ asset purchases, driving up global long‐term interest rates, emergers face potential further pressures.
• US tapering will be only partially offset by more expansionary monetary policy in Japan. What could make a big difference, and reduce the downside risks from emerging weakness, would be aggressive expansion in the Eurozone. At present, however, this seems unlikely – despite lingering deflation risks.

     

Opening up the firm: What explains participation and effort in voluntary carbon disclosure by global businesses? An analysis of internal firm factors and dynamics

A voluntary climate initiative that has emerged over the past two decades as an institutional arrangement for corporations around the globe to signal and demonstrate their proactive climate leadership is the CDP (formerly known as the Carbon Disclosure Project). Unlike the extant literature that has emphasized stakeholder and regulatory pressures, this paper argues that voluntary carbon disclosure is both beneficial and costly for corporations with respect to the existence of supportive management structures, explicit CSR practices, and the existence of complementary assets. Moreover, there is variation between European firms and other global businesses because of Europe's distinctive national business systems framework in conjunction with global supply chain imperatives. Empirically, this study employs a novel discrete‐continuous modeling approach to distinguish between a corporation's decision to disclose and the linked but subsequent decision of how much to disclose climate change information. Results indicate that the main drivers of participation in voluntary carbon disclosure by the Global 500 firms is the existence of senior managers and executive‐level officers and the adoption of ESG principles by global businesses. Conditional on participation, European Union‐based and other global businesses that articulate a corporate vision for environmental sustainability, adopt ESG principles, and invest in complementary assets disclose climate change strategies and emissions at higher levels than companies without these internal firm capabilities. This study has implications for national climate policy and global climate change governance more generally, both of which increasingly focus on concrete climate solutions by corporations.     

Network Resources for Internationalization: The Case of Taiwan's Electronics Firms*

ABSTRACT This paper illustrates foreign direct investment (FDI) as the management of important network relations, using Taiwan's electronics firms as an example. Through FDI, seemingly small and weak firms propel the process of internationalization by making maximum use of external resources to which they have access. FDI often starts at a location close to the home base where support from the domestic networks can be drawn, subsequently moving on to more distant locations after investors have accumulated new network resources. The location chosen is usually an area rich in network resources or in close proximity to such rich networks. FDI enables the investors to construct a regional, or even global, sub‐network under their control to supply a set of wide‐ranging, differentiated and low‐cost products in a flexible fashion, and sometimes within close proximity to the markets. With this capacity for versatility, investors become valuable partners for multinational firms that offer global services.     

Knowledge Spillovers,Competition and Innovation Success

We study the relationship between a patent-based measure of knowledge spillovers that calculates technological proximity based on technologically relevant firms and innovation success. We find – for a representative sample of Swiss firms – that knowledge spillovers have a positive and significant association with the commercial success of innovative products. The paper shows the importance of market conditions for the relationship of spillovers with innovation performance: It is only positive and significant in markets with a medium number of competitors in the main product market, but not in monopolistic or polypolistic market structures.     

The role of human sustainability in professional service firms. Evidence from Italy

Sustainability is a central topic for an increasing number of companies, as a part of their business strategies. Human sustainability, that is, preserving and improving the quality of human life, in other words, maintaining and advancing human capital, appears as one relevant issue in that context. Humans and human capital are the foremost resources for professional service firms. Their role in the international economic scenario will most likely depend on how they deal with human sustainability and the wellbeing of their people. In this perspective, the paper investigates the antecedents, and organisational implications, of human sustainability in such firms using a structural equation model (SEM) developed on 4,301 questionnaires filled by Italian Chartered Accountants. Findings shed new lights on some implications of human sustainability. Results show that human sustainability has a direct and significative impact on a firm's ability to innovate, fostering creativity and intellectual capital, thus being significant for corporate performance. As a practical implication, firms should accordingly shape their business strategies towards accounting for human sustainability aspects.     

Labor Regulations and European Venture Capital

European nations substitute between employment protection regulations and labor market expenditures (e.g., unemployment insurance benefits) for providing worker insurance. Employment regulations more directly tax firms making frequent labor adjustments than other labor market insurance mechanisms. Venture capital (VC) investors are especially sensitive to these labor adjustment costs. Nations favoring labor market expenditures as the mechanism for providing worker insurance developed stronger VC markets over 1990–2008, especially in high‐volatility sectors. In this context, policy mechanisms are more important than the overall level of worker insurance.     

Stakeholder engagement is evolving: Do investors play a main role?

Stakeholder engagement, an essential component of the sustainability reporting strategy, is changing, as is the position of the different stakeholders in this evolving scenario. In this paper, we explore the effect of the pressure that a specific group of stakeholders, investors, exerts on the quality of the sustainability information disclosed. We intend to analyze if there has been a change in the role that investors play in sustainability reporting. By focusing on investors, we are paying attention to one of the less studied groups within the sustainability stakeholders. To this aim, we carry out a content analysis of the sustainability information disclosed by U.S. (shareholder-oriented country) and Spanish (stakeholder-oriented country) listed companies during the years 2013 to 2016. Our findings confirm the key role that investors play in the companies' sustainability strategies, demanding more and better sustainability information. We also find a reduction in the quality of sustainability disclosures in Spanish companies in the last year of our sample, showing a relevant change in this country that has been leading the sustainability rankings until now. The results of this paper are useful to investors and companies, as they reflect the changes on the information they demand, and for regulators, in order to create the adequate legal framework that will improve the quality of reporting. Regulators and financial agents should acknowledge this new scenario to adapt norms and actions accordingly.     

Emergent dynamics of a macroeconomic agent based model with capital and credit

In this paper we present and discuss a Macroeconomic Agent-Based Model with Capital and Credit (CC-MABM) which builds upon the framework put forward by Delli Gatti et al. (2011). The novelty of this model with respect to the previous framework consists in the introduction of a stylized supply chain where upstream firms – i.e. producers of capital goods (K-firms) – supply a durable and sticky input (capital) to the downstream firms, who produce consumption goods (C-firms) to be sold to households. Both C-firms and K-firms resort to bank loans to satisfy their financing needs. There are two-way feedbacks between firms and markets which yield interesting emerging properties at the macro level. We show that the interaction of upstream and downstream firms and the evolution of their financial conditions – in a nutshell: Capital and Credit – are essential ingredients of a “crisis” i.e. a sizable slump followed by a long recovery.     

Corporate engagement in processes for planetary sustainability: understanding corporate capacity in the non‐renewable resource extractive sector,Australia

In recent years corporations have come under increasing pressure from governments, consumers, investors, competitors, business partners and communities to balance their pursuit of economic gain with environmental and social concerns. Non‐renewable resource extractive corporations in particular, due to their profile, visibility and activities, have come under mounting pressure to embed the concept of ecological sustainability into strategic decision‐making processes and operations. In this regard, there is a growing base of evidence that describes efforts, successes and failures in the sector to meet mounting societal expectations. However, to date there has been limited explanatory research into corporate capacity to engage in processes for ecological sustainability. This paper presents an emergent explanation of the internal factors mediating corporate engagement in ecological sustainability in non‐renewable resource extractive corporations in Australia. It identifies the five factors of leadership, resources, structures, culture and understanding and conceptualizes these internal factors as capacity for engagement. While all of the factors are seen as interdependent and essential, leadership is identified as the most critical. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Backshoring of production activities in European manufacturing

Backshoring – the movement of manufacturing activities from locations abroad back to the home country – has gained some attention in policy discussions and in academic research in recent years. This paper presents empirical evidence on backshoring from a large sample of European manufacturing firms. The data indicate that backshoring is still uncommon among European firms. Around 4% of all firms in our sample have moved production back to the home country between 2013 and mid-2015. The most frequent reasons for backshoring are the loss of flexibility, a lack in quality of the goods produced abroad, and unemployed capacities at home. Flexibility and quality concerns are, in particular, relevant for firms that move production back from Asian countries. Backshoring is most likely for manufacturers of final products and in high-technology sectors, in particular in electrical equipment, information and communications equipment, and the Automotive industry.     

Populist Syndrome and Nonmarket Strategy

Although recognized as a defining feature of the current political era, populism and its implications for non-market strategy remain undertheorized. We offer a framework that (a) conceptualizes populism and its progression over time; (b) outlines the risks populism generates for firms; and (c) theorizes effective nonmarket strategies under populism. Our framework anchors the political risk profile of populism in three interdependent elements: anti-establishment ideology, de-institutionalization, and short-term policy bias. These elements jointly shape the policymaking dynamics and institutional risks for firms under populism. Our analysis shows how firms can calibrate two nonmarket strategies – political ties and corporate social responsibility – to mitigate populism-related risks. We specify how particular configurations of political ties and CSR activities, aimed at the populist leadership, bureaucrats, political opposition, and societal stakeholders, minimize risk under populism. Further, we theorize how the effectiveness of specific attributes of political ties and CSR – namely their relative covertness (more vs. less concealed) and their relative focus (narrowly vs. widely targeted) – varies as a function of firm type (insiders vs. outsiders) and the probability of populist regime collapse. Finally, we address how motivated reasoning may bias firms' assessments of regime fragility and resulting strategy choices.     

Unfolding the impact of leadership and management on sustainability performance: Green and lean practices and guanxi as the dual mediators

This study aims to empirically evaluate the predictors that influence sustainability performance among manufacturing firms. Leadership and management, green and lean practices, and guanxi were examined to determine whether these predictors are directly and/or indirectly affecting sustainability performance; 160 valid responses were collected and partial-least-squares-structural-equation-modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to analyze the data. The results showed that leadership and management positively influenced green and lean practices and green and lean practices positively influenced sustainability performance. Leadership and management also positively influenced guanxi. Interestingly, leadership and management and guanxi do not exert a significant direct influence on sustainability performance. The findings contributed to the development of the resource-based-view theory further by empirically exploring the significance of leadership and management coupled with green and lean practices as competencies and capability to drive sustainability performance. The testing of the dual mediators' effects further added value to this study.     

Spoils from the Spoiled: Strategies for Entering Stigmatized Markets

Stigmatized markets are those where either the products/services, or the consumers, or both, have been collectively, negatively stereotyped and devalued by one or more stakeholder audiences in ways that discredit the overall market. Many stigmatized markets exist, and many flourish, yet little systematic attention has focused on entry into such markets. Our article addresses this gap by conceptualizing various strategies for entering stigmatized markets. We further present propositions regarding the market‐level factors that can influence which of these strategies firms will choose to employ. The contributions include: conceptually clarifying the nature of stigmatized markets; identifying additional types of entry strategies relevant for entering stigmatized markets; theorizing the conditions under which firms would choose one entry strategy over another; and opening up for consideration the effects that market entry may have on stigmatized actors in targeted markets.     

Euro conversion and return dynamics of European financial markets: a frequency domain approach

Using a frequency domain approach, we compare the spectra of equity market index returns for the 12 Euro-zone countries, the UK, the US, and Japan, over several time frames before and after the introduction of the Euro. In the immediate aftermath of the Euro-introduction, we find a reduced volatility over all frequencies, in which no strong cyclical components are present. However, in the long run, equity markets exhibit a volatility increase: the larger European equity markets develop dynamics that exhibit strikingly similar patterns, while the smaller European equity markets appear to follow dynamics closely resembling white noise. The similarity in dynamics is a likely candidate to explain the increase in correlation among the European markets. Furthermore, the European equity markets initially exhibited dynamics that resembled those of the US, while after the introduction of the Euro, the dynamics of the European Markets exhibits patterns similar to those found the UK. This suggests a change in the dynamic interdependency between the UK and the European markets and an increased convergence of UK market behavior with that behavior dominant in the Euro-zone. The findings may provide important implications for investors seeking to take advantage of international diversification.