Monetary policy for an open economy: an alternative framework with optimizing agents and sticky prices

The 'new open-economy macroeconomics' seeks to provide an improvedbias for monetary and exchange-rate policy through the constructionof open-economy models that feature rational expectations, optimizingagents, and slowly adjusting prices of goods. This paper promotesan alternative approach for constructing such models by treatingimports not as finished consumer goods but rather as raw-materialinputs to the home economy's productive process. This treatmentleads to a clean and simple theoretical structure that has someempirical attractions as well. A particular small-economy modelis calibrated and its properties exhibited, primarily by meansof impulse response functions. The preferred variant is shownto feature a pattern of correlations between exchange-rate changesand inflation that is more realistic than provided by a morestandard specification. Important recent events are interpretedin light of the alternative models.     

公共政策支持与深圳文化产业发展

法兰克福社会学派在1947年提出“文化产业”一词，随后国际上展开了对文化产业的跨学科研究。我国“十五”制定期间开始提出文化产业的发展问题。目前，国内外关于文化产业尚没有一个统一的认识。联合国教科文组织的定义是：“按照工业标准生产、再生产、储蓄以及分配文化产品和服务的一系列活动”。按照国内     

我国房地产现状原因分析、发展趋势与政策走势判断

本文认为我国政府行政调控不力是区域性房地产市场“过热”的主要因素。未来房地产调控将由行政调控主导,但受人民币升值预期的影响及其他利益主体的牵制,房价将不会出现大起大落。要有效控制房地产价格,政府应调整产业政策,规范房地产外商资金和企业的准入,加强国内房地产政策配套措施和监管力度。     

可持续发展治理:概念、分析框架和模式

可持续发展是我国的发展目标之一,也是我国政府、学者、产业界关注的焦点之一。然而如何才能实现可持续发展呢?这需要进行科学的可持续发展治理。本文将对此进行初步探究。本文在介绍国际最新有关可持续发展治理的概念和理论,并分析欧盟、经济合作组织等国际组织可持续发展治理的研究和分析框架的基础上,提出我国的可持续发展治理模式,促进我国的可持续发展。     

新疆全部国有及规模以上非国有工业行业经济效益评价及发展趋势分析

本文运用因子分析法,对新疆全部国有及规模以上非国有工业35个行业经济效益进行了评价,在对行业进行分类的基础上,分析了2002～2004年各行业经济效益的变化趋势。     

Usage efficiency of primary resources as an indicator of technological development: A retrospective analysis and forecast

Problems of measuring and forecasting the level of technological development of the economy are discussed in this article. An approach to measuring the level of technological development with the use of an index of the intensity of use in primary resources or an index of productivity in primary resources is offered and proven. A method for forecasting the technological development of the economy and industries on the basis of economic and technological analogies is worked out and implemented.     

文化产业发展问题与对策探析

在我国"十五"计划中,文化产业第一次被正式纳入国家经济社会发展计划;党的"十六大"报告进一步强调:"发展文化产业是市场经济条件下繁荣社会主义文化,满足人民群众精神文化需求的重要途径。"种种迹象表明,文化产业已经成为当今世界十分引人注目的新兴产业。本文试图通过对国内     

Openness and trade policy in China: an industrial analysis

This paper analyzes the tariff structure and its determinants in China, with our research conducted under the rubric of endogenous policy theory. We study the tariff rates for 95 industries in China in 1996. The potential determinants of tariff rates are collected from an array of variables characterizing industries in 1995. A principal component method is used to reduce these variables into four major dimensions. The first component comprises the information on the composition of employees broken down by age, education, and job classification. The second component is underlined by the profitability of the industry. The third component consists of those variables not picked up with high salience in the first two components. More closely resembling those in the second component than the first, these variables include gross product, foreign capital, inventory, sales revenue, and total loss. The fourth component receives high loadings from two variables: the number of firms in the industry and the number of firms that incur net losses in their operation. Using variables identified by the principal component analysis and postulated by the variants of the endogenous trade theory, regression analysis finds that the trade policy in China is mainly defined by an industrial policy favoring high-tech industries and a social policy minimizing social instability. The implications for China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) are also provided in the paper.     

绿色交通运输发展战略与政策路径研究——以广东省为例

以绿色交通运输战略及对策分析为导向,文章分析了绿色交通运输发展的优势和劣势,并提出了应对机遇和挑战的战略方案,研究建立并完善规划与政策体系、管理能力建设、科研与信息化建设及绿色交通试点示范等战略方向的绿色交通运输建设发展的政策措施及实施路线。     

The policy implications of an appropriate development strategy for Southern Africa

The development strategies of the past have not lead to meaningful development results. The fruits of economic growth do not automatically reach the poor groups. The conventional development approach (growth strategy) is unable to produce any significant development results, nor is it capable of eradicating poverty. This experience has culminated in a more appropriate strategy for the circumstances in the LDCs. In a previous article in this journal, the magnitude of the poverty problem and the conceptual framework of this relatively new approach were discussed. This article highlights the policy implications, in terms of appropriate development programmes, of this approach.     

韶关旅游产业发展的SWOT分析与深度开发的战略选择

<正> 韶关市位于广东省北部,北界湖南,东北与江西接壤,南连广州,“居五岭之口,当百越之冲”。2001年被评为中国优秀旅游城市,是广东省第二批省级历史文化名城。根据2004年8月最新行政区划,韶关市辖3区(曲江区、武江区、浈江区)2市(乐昌市、南雄市)5县(仁化县、始兴县、乳源县、翁源县、新丰县),总人口312.63万人(2001年末),总面积1.86万km2,属于广东省旅游区划中的粤北旅游区。 韶关市地处粤北山区,经济发展落后,农业人口众多。在经过大量的产业调查和分析之后,1999年韶关市确立了把旅游业建设成为第三产业龙头的发展思路,大力发展旅游业。韶关市的旅     

Immigration policy and demographic dynamics: Welfare analysis of an aging Japan

This study quantified the effects of immigration policies in an aging and depopulating Japan. Under a constant total number of immigrants, it focused on the optimal period for an immigration policy that maximized per-capita utility. Simulation results, based on an extended lifecycle simulation model with endogenous fertility, showed that a longer period immigration policy increased the future population and enhanced long-run economic growth. Conversely, a shorter period immigration policy enhanced economic growth in earlier years but less so in the long run. This study found that an optimal duration for an immigration policy, under the standard parameter settings for Japan, was nine years; this finding was derived through reconciling the merits and demerits between shorter and longer period immigration policies.     

Children's growth in an adaptive framework: explaining the growth patterns of American slaves and other historical populations

This article presents a new adaptive framework for understanding children's growth in the past. Drawing upon the recent work on adaptive responses in relation to growth, it presents prenatal and postnatal adaptive mechanisms that affect the growth patterns of children. The most novel adaptive response to the historical literature is the prenatal predictive adaptive response where the metabolism and growth trajectory of a child is programmed to match predicted conditions later in life. Having discussed the framework in detail, a reinterpretation of the growth pattern of American slaves is then suggested. It seems likely that a mismatch between relatively good conditions in utero and absolutely appalling conditions in infancy and early childhood led slave children to become extremely stunted by the age of three or four. However, after this age, slave children experienced catch‐up growth because their immune systems had become more developed and because their diet improved tremendously and hookworm exposure was reduced. Thus, it seems that American slave children may have experienced substantial catch‐up growth because they were prenatally programmed for a higher metabolism and growth trajectory. The article concludes by setting out some stylized facts about children's growth in the past and pointing toward areas of future research.     

专利导航产业发展对地方产业的影响——以镇江市为例

国家知识产权局于2013年启动了国家专利导航试点工程,探索通过专利信息导航产业发展,试点专利储备运营,推动专利技术的产业化实施,促进产业的转型升级和高端发展。通过导入专利导航产业发展的理论,可使产业布局更加合理、优势产业更加集中,这对地方产业发展和知识产权工作具有重要意义,也是难得的机遇。文章以江苏省镇江市为例,分析了其开展专利导航产业发展工作的条件以及专利导航产业发展对地方产业的影响。     

我国投资银行业的外部监管分析与政策建议

一、我国投资银行外部监管存在的问题就投资银行业的具体监管而言,其存在的问题表现如下:1.制度安排关系未能理顺。我国证券市场监管架构的制度安排没有很好的处理政府监管与自律监管的关系,还存在很多方面的不足:一是监管体系过多的依赖政府机构监管,容易形成对市场正常活动的