Selecting a variety of futures for scenario development

Systematic development of future scenarios involves identifying key factors and their different possible values, then selecting combinations of factor values on which to build scenarios. This article recapitulates basic methods of reducing the number of possible combinations of factor values by removing futures containing incompatible factor value pairs, then uses probability and cross-impact measures to further eliminate improbable futures. Working with the remaining plausible futures, the aim is to select a small number of them for scenario development in such a way that there is a balance between the factor values explored. The motivation is to explore possible futures while avoiding unintentional bias by over-representing some factor values and neglecting others. The tool used is a mathematical formulation that is easily solved as an integer linear program. The process is illustrated with a small example.     

Alternative methods for developing business scenarios

Recently increasing emphasis is being placed by corporate planners and forecasters on the use of scenario analysis to produce forecasts of future business environments and to identify conditions leading to major changes in these environments. This article compares some of the major approaches to scenario analysis including intuitive logics, trend-impact analysis, and cross-impact analysis. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed along with case study examples from the key practitioners such as SRI International, The Futures Group, The Center for Futures Research, and Battelle Columbus Division.     

The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls

The term strategy has been misused and even abused. Worse, the word scenario is often confused with strategy to the point that clarification is needed if we are to understand one another. As a prolongation of the work done by the Rand Corporation in the 1960s, strategic planning, management and prospective approaches have been developed to help organizations master change. Over the past 25 years, we have contributed by creating or further developing various methodologies and procedures such as the Mactor and MICMAC methods for use in scenario building. These tools are doubly powerful in that they stimulate the imagination, reduce collective biases, and promote appropriation. One of the main functions of the strategic futures exercise is to eliminate two errors that we usually describe as the “hammer's risk” and the “nail's dream.” In other words, we forget what a hammer's function is when staring at a nail (the nail's dream) or we know how to use a hammer and imagine that every problem is like a nail (the hammer's risk). In our case, we strive to give simple tools that may be appropriated. However, these simple tools are inspired by intellectual rigor that enables one to ask the right questions. Of course, these tools do not come with a guarantee. The natural talent, common sense, and intuition of the futurist also count!     

论传统期货交易所公司化改造的背景

许多传统的会员制非赢利期货交易所近年来纷纷进行公司化改造,成为赢利性的股份公司。尽管对这种组织变革及其相关问题存在着一些不同认识,但要深入研究这些问题,必须首先弄清出现公司化改造浪潮的背景。研究表明,促成这类战略决策的主要因素包括三个方面：信息技术的变革与创新使传统交易方式和组织形式面临技术竞争力方面的压力;国际期货市场结构发生了重大变化,传统交易所组织形式面临竞争方面的严峻挑战,有关国家的市场监管部门为提升本国期货业的竞争实力,对交易所的组织变革提供了有力支持。     

Uncertainty, human action and scenarios

The “scenario method,” “scenario building,” or “multiple futures analysis” emerged during the last decades as a premier instrument for strategic planning and decision making in conditions of uncertainty. This article demonstrates that there is an intrinsic link between the scenario method and Austrian theory not only at the level of basic epistemological principles but also at the methodological and applied levels. The article also argues that the scenario method could easily be embraced as a part of the Austrian family of ideas and more precisely as one of the key policy applications or decision support tools informed by that school of thought. Blending explicitly and systematically the scenario method with the Austrian ideas and forcefully making the case for the scenario approach as a policy and business administration tool, is thus one of the most effective ways of reasserting the importance of Austrian insights in areas such as business studies, public policy, and organizational theory, areas that currently have a limited exposure to Austrian ideas.     

Suspending disbelief: Influencing engagement in scenarios of forest futures

Scenario analysis is an approach to long-term planning that informs decision-making in contexts of highly uncertain future conditions. Scenario-based studies are rapidly growing in popularity, yet many aspects of the method are not fully understood. Participants' willingness to suspend disbelief in possible futures is an integral component of scenario-based studies, essential for considering alternative future scenarios, yet little is known about the factors that affect it. Participation in a scenario project does not necessarily imply willingness or ability to suspend disbelief; participants may not suspend disbelief simply upon request. However, the scenario literature says little about the aspects of scenario-based studies that influence suspension of disbelief.This article explores the factors that influenced the suspension of disbelief in one scenario exercise about the future of Canada's forests. Participants differed in their abilities to suspend disbelief in the scenarios in part because of their past experiences and expertise in particular areas, and their assessments of probable and desired future outcomes. Elements of the project design and implementation influenced participants' abilities to engage the scenarios. The results have implications for those interested in using scenarios for helping people and communities envision possible - and sustainable - futures.     

The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process

This paper integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies. AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis tool useful for evaluating decisions with multiple criteria and alternatives. In this paper, AHP is extended using a technique called perspective-based scenario analysis (PBSA). In PBSA, scenario analysis is conducted based on potential future decision-maker perspectives that are integrated into the AHP framework. This paper discusses this method and applies it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processor technologies 15–20 years hence. The results provide an added layer of insight into the opportunities and barriers for the commercialization of these technologies as well as the methodological opportunities for using AHP and PBSA as a futures tool.     

敏捷治理：一个新的管理变革——研究述评与展望

为应对持续挑战,各组织尝试将大规模敏捷方法应用到自身业务中,以灵活、持续、快速地协调自身业务组件和资源.敏捷治理(agile governance)作为一个新兴交叉学科,在组织绩效、竞争力和可持续性方面,为企业战略变革、企业竞争优势和企业绩效提供了有效的支撑.采用系统分析方法,对敏捷治理的概念和内涵进行梳理,同时围绕敏捷治理的能力要素、内外部影响因素和影响效应等方面进行分析,构建敏捷治理研究框架,以期对当前的研究有系统的思考.     

创新型企业知识资本、组织性格与未来取向

通过整合知性管理与未来取向理论,从知识资本与组织性格两方面探讨创新型企业未来取向(由社会责任和研发倾向表征)的实现机制。以进入2018年全球创新企业1 000强的94家中国上市企业为样本,在收集2015-2017年数据的基础上,采用回归分析方法,检验创新型企业知识资本、组织性格与未来取向的作用关系。研究结果表明:知识资本与企业组织研发倾向正相关;内向型性格与组织研发倾向、社会责任正相关;直觉型、感知型和情感型性格在知识资本对研发倾向的影响路径上起显著调节作用。研究结论为知性管理理论的管理逻辑提供了新证据,也为创新型企业更好地面向未来、谋求可持续发展提供了启示。     

组织惯例更新触发因素与影响效应——基于先动型市场导向和可持续竞争优势视角

组织惯例更新是企业进行组织优化和迭代以适应外部动态环境的重要途径，基于组织学习理论和动态能力理论，构建先动型市场导向—组织学习—组织惯例更新—动态能力—可持续竞争优势研究框架，探讨组织惯例更新触发因素与影响效应。通过对191家科技型企业进行问卷调研发现：①先动型市场导向显著正向影响组织惯例更新，组织学习在先动型市场导向与组织惯例更新之间起部分中介作用；②组织惯例更新显著正向影响企业可持续竞争优势，动态能力在组织惯例更新与可持续竞争优势之间发挥完全中介作用。研究结论有助于厘清组织惯例更新触发因素、丰富组织惯例更新结果研究，并对企业建立可持续竞争优势具有一定指导意义。     

Strategic planning in public R&D organizations for agribusiness: Brazil and the United States of America

There is increasing evidence that public organizations dedicated exclusively to research and development (R&D) in agribusiness need systematic management tools to incorporate the uncertainties and complexities of technological and nontechnological factors of external environments in its long-term strategic plans. The major issues are: “What will be the agribusiness science and technology (S&T) needs be in the future?” “How to prepare in order to meet these needs?” Both Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, Embrapa), attached to the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture and the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) have developed a comprehensive strategic and operational planning process in order to answer these key questions in the 1990s. The main objective of this article is to present a comparative and preliminary analysis of concepts, methodologies, and processes utilized, and some results obtained by these public organizations.     

Project Hindsight: Exploring Necessity and Possibility in Cycles of Structuration and Co-Evolution

The successful management of strategic change requires an understanding of which moves are possible in specific contexts, and thus of how specific contexts variously require, forbid, or permit certain organizational or policy actions. Appreciation of such modal issues of necessity and possibility thus becomes essential in understanding organizational and technological dynamics. This paper introduces the concept of modal narratives: forms of analytically structured narrative that explore questions of necessity, possibility and contingency. After a brief review of two common types of modal narrative—counterfactuals and scenarios— the potential of a third form is suggested: the superfactual. An extended example of a superfactual is provided in the Project Hindsight case, and the implications for strategic action are discussed.     

Strategic noise traders and liquidity pressure with a physically deliverable futures contract

Do physically deliverable futures contracts induce liquidity pressure in the underlying spot market? The answer is believed to be no since the asset is delivered sometimes after the expiration of the contract so that the futures trader's payoff does not clearly depend on the price of the underlying stock at expiration. We construct a rational expectations equilibrium model in which a strategic uninformed trader induces liquidity pressure in the underlying spot market at the expiration of a physically deliverable futures contract. Liquidity pressure is the result of a pure informational advantage: if it is known that futures traders hedge their position in the spot market then a strategic trader with no information about the fundamental value of the underlying has an incentive to create noise in the futures market in order to gain information on the composition of the spot order flow at future auctions. We show that informed traders benefit from this form of strategic noise and that the efficiency of the prices remains unaffected.     

The future of foresight—A US perspective

The growing interest in business, government, and other organizations and users of futures research in the next ten to thirty years implies that the interest is largely to promote better strategic thinking and planning. Popular in the current futures lexicon is ‘strategic foresight’. This article characterizes, as best the author can, the key characteristics of strategic foresight, under whatever name it occurs, by American futurists. The most central characteristic of American futurists and their approach as practiced around the world is eclectic flexibility in methods and techniques. The American approach is illustrated by the author's own decades of work for organizational clients.     

Scenarios and the growth of knowledge: Notes on the epistemic element in scenario building

Scenarios raise a very remarkable challenge. They are a special category of thought experiments and as such they deal with the domain of the “possible” and “probable”, i.e. with the world of speculation. Nevertheless they are of a crucial practical importance for public policy, management and strategic thinking in general: any premeditated significant action has to be preceded by such a thought experiment that anticipates the possibility of its outcomes and its implications. The question is then, how could speculation have such a crucial epistemic role? What kind of knowledge, if any, do scenarios produce? What is the epistemic role of scenarios? The objective of this article is to discuss the controversial but crucial issue of the epistemic functions of scenarios and to outline several possible approaches to it. The article explores the relevance in this respect of the research that has been already done on thought experiments, de-biasing, deductive arguments and uncertainty—and complexity—coping cognitive devices while indicating the potential contribution of that literature to the further development of the scenario building practice and of the futures methodology.     

中国制造企业创新战略变革模式选择——基于战略三角框架的模糊集定性比较分析

数字经济时代数字技术与实体经济深度融合,中国制造企业面临通过战略变革实现创新发展的机遇和挑战。囿于理论视角和研究方法,现有研究难以指导管理者实现有效的战略变革。鉴于此,立足战略三角框架,运用模糊集定性比较分析方法（fsQCA）,基于2018年中国A股上市制造企业样本数据,检验政府效率、创新创业活跃度、过往绩效、控股股东性质、市场竞争度与战略变革幅度6项条件对创新绩效的组态效应。结果表明：战略变革不构成高创新绩效的必要条件,不同制度情境下企业应依据组织要素特征选择战略变革模式。4种组态能够引致高创新绩效：高政府效率、非高创新创业活跃度环境下高绩效国企宜实施回避式战略变革;高政府效率、高创新创业活跃度环境下高绩效民企应实施妥洽式战略变革;高政府效率、高创新创业活跃度环境下非高绩效国企宜实施转向式战略变革;非高政府效率、非高创新创业活跃度环境下非高绩效企业应进行复兴式战略变革。     

多重制度逻辑交互关系如何影响持续性变革过程？—基于云南农垦集团20年政企分离转型纵向案例分析

在更加动态和复杂的背景下,持续性变革取向的价值更加凸显.本文采用案例研究方法,以一家国有组织20年政企分离转型的过程为分析对象,尝试探究持续性变革的动力来源及过程机制.结合多重制度逻辑理论,研究发现小社会逻辑和市场逻辑是组织政企分离过程中最突出的两种制度逻辑.多重制度逻辑交互关系与持续性变革状态转换之间的具体关系如下:①受到外部环境影响,市场逻辑迅速提升对内部小社会逻辑产生挤压,两种制度逻辑之间的冲突显性化促使组织从"解冻"状态进入"冻结"状态,随后转向"再平衡"的变革状态;②组织内部小社会逻辑的回顾使得制度逻辑之间的冲突性逐渐减弱,兼容性逐渐凸显,推动组织由"再平衡"状态转向"解冻"状态;③多重制度逻辑交互关系的不断转换为组织持续性变革提供情景动力.研究结合组织内外部因素对持续性变革的驱动情景进行了有益探索,丰富了组织变革理论研究,同时为当前背景下企业变革和创新实践提供启示.     

Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments

The development and analysis of scenarios or plausible futures has evolved to be a useful approach for dealing with uncertainty about future developments in a structured and integrated manner. Commonly, scenario exercises have focussed on processes at one specific geographic scale. Recently scenario-based approaches have also been used to address multi-scale processes or to link scenarios developed at various geographical scales with each other in order to better understand the interaction of processes across scales.The level of interconnectedness across scales will vary, and depends largely on the approaches used to develop multi-scale scenarios. We distinguish five levels of interconnectedness scenarios may display across scales: (a) Equivalent, (b) Consistent, (c) Coherent, (d) Comparable, and (e) Complementary. Furthermore, we describe five different types of coupled scenario development processes: (a) Joint, (b) Parallel, (c) Iterative, (d) Consecutive, and (e) Independent.Based on this nomenclature, the relationship between the level of interconnectedness of scenarios and the degree of coupling of scenario development processes across geographical scales is discussed. Which process is best suited and how much interconnectedness is needed, will depend both on the focal issue and the primary purpose of the scenario exercise, i.e. whether the aim is education, scientific exploration, or decision-support.