谈供电企业售电中存在的风险及对策

在我国发电侧电力市场建立以后,供电企业与发电企业变成市场上的交易双方,供电企业所面临的风险更加多样化.文章在分析电力市场供电企业面临的售电风险的基础上,重点研究售电前购电量市场分配风险和售电后电费回收风险的对策.     

谈供电企业售电中存在的风险及对策

在我国发电侧电力市场建立以后，供电企业与发电企业变成市场上的交易双方，供电企业所面临的风险更加多样化。文章在分析电力市场供电企业面临的售电风险的基础上，重点研究售电前购电量市场分配风险和售电后电费回收风险的对策。     

电力用户与发电企业直接交易对我国电力市场的影响分析

推行电力用户与发电企业直接交易是构建市场化电力交易制度的一项重要举措,能促进电力市场的竞争,提高运行效率。那么,直接交易对我国电力市场的现实影响程度如何,能否取得预期效果？本文围绕这些问题,在分析直接交易对我国电力市场的内在影响机理的基础上,论述了直接交易对电力市场各主体的影响程度,分析其影响结果的原因,提出了完善直接交易的相关建议。     

电力市场交易模式探讨

通过比较和分析电力市场交易中的现货交易、远期合约以及期货交易之间的相互区别和特点,提出必须在电力市场中建立和完善电力期货交易机制,并与现行的现货交易手段和远期合约手段进行结合,充分利用期货交易的价格发现功能和风险防范功能以促进电力商品价格的规范,防范价格的频繁波动,进一步健全电力市场交易方式,促进电力工业与国民经济的健康有序发展。     

我国电力市场的风险与对策

文章从理论上分析了电力市场风险的特点,包括客观必然性、偶然性和不确定性,以及可变性.并在此基础上,指出了我国电力市场存在的缺电风险,市场力风险,电力定价风险以及电网安全运行风险.最后针对这些风险,从区域电网建设,电力定价与市场监管,电力市场效率与供给方面,提出了我国电力市场的风险管理时策.     

电力市场交易模式探讨

通过比较和分析电力市场交易中的现货交易、远期合约以及期货交易之间的相互区别和特点，提出必须在电力市场中建立和完善电力期货交易机制，并与现行的现货交易手段和远期合约手段进行结合，充分利用期货交易的价格发现功能和风险防范功能以促进电力商品价格的规范，防范价格的频繁波动，进一步健全电力市场交易方式，促进电力工业与国民经济的健康有序发展。     

基于电力交易对象选择的双边合约交易机制研究

针对电力双边市场中交易对象不唯一的现象,文章提出了合作博弈论下基于交易伙伴选择的双边交易及电价形成机制,分析了一对多和多对多双边电力市场中的独立及交叉合约交易。文中运用核仁法模拟上述双边电力交易过程,分配交易利润,再由价格利润公式算出交易电价。用该方法来模拟电力双边交易中赋予市场参与者以选择交易对象的权利,还通过缩短交易时间减少了交易风险和交易成本。最后用算例对所提出的模型进行了验证。     

绿色证书交易与碳排放权交易对中国电力市场的政策效果

首先,在描述和分析可交易绿色证书制度和碳排放权交易制度的基础上,构建系统动力学模型来解释两种制度的作用机理。然后,研究两种制度作用于中国电力市场的机理,并对其政策作用效果进行模拟仿真。结果表明:可交易绿色证书制度和碳排放权交易制度不仅可影响中国电力市场的上网电价,而且可通过设定合理的规划目标组合来促进中国发电产业的发展;在可交易绿色证书机制和碳排放权交易机制的协同作用下,中国电力市场可形成相对合理的上网电价;科学的规划目标不仅有利于增强监管规划期内电价的合理性,而且可以有效调整发电产业的结构。     

谈特高压电网的建设与发展

电网是电力市场的基础和载体。市场越大,竞争越充分,资源配置效率越高。通过特高压电网的建设与发展,培育和发展国家电力市场,可以发挥市场对资源配置的基础性作用,实现跨大区、远距离的电能输送和交易,有效调节电力供求关系,引导电力投资,更好地调节电力平衡,提高效率和效益。     

中国水电企业应对电力市场改革的策略

随着国家电力体制改革的逐步推进,各地纷纷成立电力交易中心开展市场化交易,本文从水电企业的适应性进行分析,提出了水电应对电力市场的营销策略,以期为水电企业提供一些参考和建议.     

Security design,market risk and round quotes in the treasury bond market

Prior literature finds that the tendency of price-endings to cluster on rounder fractions increases with price volatility. We estimate the separate influences and relative importance of the determinants of price volatility, security design and market risks. Our data is from a market setting that is ideal for isolating and studying the relations of interest. Results for both quote and trade prices indicate that the tendency to use round price-endings increases with both a security’s inherent risk, attributable to security design, and variation over time in market risks. Security design influences clustering more than market risks, but market risks are influential in determining clustering once security design is fixed. The estimated effects are strongest in the on-the-run market segment where liquidity facilitates the aggregation of information into price.     

排污权价格形成机制及其优化分析

构建有效的排污权价格形成与运行机制是排污权交易制度建设的关键环节。本文分析了排污权的初始分配机制以及不同市场条件下排污权交易的价格形成机制。在完全竞争市场条件下,排污权的市场价格等于各企业的边际治理成本。经济增长、污染治理技术进步、政府环境目标以及预期因素等将对排污权价格变动产生影响。在不完全竞争条件下,市场势力和交易费用的存在降低了排污权价格机制的效率。文章最后提出了优化排污权价格形成和运行机制的政策建议。     

电力市场复杂特性及其演化规律的实证研究

复杂系统研究的基本问题是,大量个体(包括有生命和无生命的)所组成的复杂系统,在没有中心控制、非完全信息、仅仅存在局域相互作用的条件下,如何通过个体之间的非线性相互作用,在宏观层次上涌现出一定的有序结构和功能。本文基于复杂系统理论,对电力市场的复杂特性及其演化规律进行了分析,并以美国加州电力市场和PJM电力市场为例进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:电力市场作为一种经济系统,是一个包括多因素、多层次,涉及多环节的复杂系统,也因此具有了复杂系统的一切特征和性质。美国加州电力市场的电价分布具有自相似性,反映出竞争性电力市场具有复杂分形结构,即具有了复杂系统的涌现性特征;美国PJM电力市场的电价服从幂律分布,验证了竞争性电力市场自组织临界性的演化规律。本文结论为电力市场研究提供了新的思路和角度。     

股票转让方式与极端收益风险——兼论新三板市场引入做市转让制度的经济后果

在极端收益风险形成机理的现有研究中,交易环节是其逻辑链条中缺失的一环;对于做市转让制度的实施效果,现有实证研究也普遍忽视了其对极端收益风险的影响.文章从交易环节入手,提出了一个解释极端收益风险形成机理的新假说,并以新三板市场引入做市转让制度为契机,实证考察了股票转让方式和极端收益风险之间的关系.研究发现:(1)与实施协议转让的股票相比,实施做市转让的股票极端收益风险显著较低,但更多的做市商并未带来显著更低的极端收益风险;(2)做市转让方式对股价暴涨风险的抑制作用在熊市中较强,对股价暴跌风险的抑制作用则在牛市中较强;(3)股票转让方式对极端收益风险的影响主要通过股票流动性路径起作用,而信息有效性路径会起作用主要是因为信息有效性和股票流动性之间的高相关性.使用处理效应模型来控制自选择偏差的影响,使用不同的极端收益风险度量指标,延长极端收益风险的计算窗口,均不改变上述实证结果.这表明,交易环节是影响极端收益风险的重要因素,做市转让方式的引入有助于降低新三板挂牌公司的极端收益风险.文章对于深入理解极端收益风险形成机理、改善新三板市场交易机制具有重要的意义.     

Price transmission and local market power: empirical evidence from the Austrian gasoline market

We analyse the impact of local market power on price margins and different dimensions of price adjustment dynamics (speed and asymmetry of price transmission) using data for a large number of individual gasoline stations in Austria. Specific attention is paid to threshold effects in price adjustment. Our results clearly suggest that the speed of price transmission between the Brent crude oil index and retail diesel prices is higher in a more competitive environment. While evidence on the relationship between local market power and asymmetries in the speed of price adjustment is mixed, our findings regarding asymmetries in price thresholds are clear: in regions where competition from neighbouring rivals is weak and/or consumers’ price elasticity of demand is low (stations located on the highway), positive thresholds significantly exceed negative ones, which corresponds to the ‘rockets and feathers phenomenon’. As expected, we observe that prices are lower in more competitive local markets.     

我国价格总水平决定的一个理论模型

开放经济条件下的价格总水平由产品市场、货币市场和劳动市场三个市场达到均衡状态时共同决定,影响我国价格总水平的主要因素包括货币供给量、名义工资水平、利率、汇率和资本市场发展水平。从长期来看,在其他情况不变的情况下,价格总水平随着名义货币供给量、名义工资水平、汇率以及利率的增加而上涨;推动资本市场发展对于促进价格总水平的稳定具有积极作用。     

Moore's law and price trends of digital products: the case of smartphones

ABSTRACT

Since the introduction of the iPhone by Apple in 2007 and Google's Android platform in 2009, the two systems have accounted for a total of 90% of the U.S. smartphone market. Apple, however, reaps most of the profit in the industry. In the second quarter of 2016, for example, Apple's iPhone gets 104% of the sector's profit. This suggests that the smartphone market resembles a Stackelberg leadership model. Despite Apple's strong market power, we investigate if the market leader is under pressure to be price competitive. We calculate a quality-adjusted price index for smartphones from 2007 to 2016. Our results show that the average price declines at an average rate of over 27% per year. The price trend is similar to other digit products such as computers, cameras, and portable music players. We observe that the large price decline reflects the effect of Moore's law, which predicts that the capacity of integrated circuits undergoes an exponential growth. The effect of Moore's law is incorporated into the Stackelberg model. We also observe that price trends of other digital products also follow a similar pattern. This suggest that the long-run price trends of digital consumer goods are somewhat independent of the market structures.     

Effects of packers’ inventory and market power on price adjustments in the U.S. beef industry

This study examines effects of packers’ inventory and market power on their price adjustment behaviour in the U.S. beef industry. Econometric model used in the study allows inventory and market power variables to influence the speed-of-adjustment parameters in a three-regime threshold error-correction model. Results show that the two variables have a statistically significant impact on packers’ price adjustment behaviour when price decreases but not when price increases. When price decreases, inventory tends to accelerate the adjustment process whereas packers’ market power slows down the adjustment process. The hypothesis of symmetric adjustment towards long-run equilibrium during increasing and decreasing phases of price is not rejected when the effects of inventory and market power are considered in explaining packers’ price adjustment behaviour. However, when these two effects are ignored in the model specification, the hypothesis of symmetry is rejected such that the speed of adjustment in the increasing phase of price is faster than the adjustment speed in the decreasing phase of price, i.e. ‘rockets and feathers’ effect.     

化肥市场的波动及其对农民收入的影响分析

化肥价格是化肥市场的利益分配机制,而化肥市场的均衡价格是由化肥市场的结构所决定的。竞争性的市场结构将使化肥的长期均衡价格等于它的生产经营成本;非竞争性的市场结构将使化肥价格决定于农民对化肥的需求价格。     

Does asymmetry in price transmission exist in the rice market in Sri Lanka?

This study analyses asymmetry in price transmission between wholesale and retail rice markets in Sri Lanka, using the threshold autoregressive model. We found that the wholesale and the retail rice markets in Sri Lanka are integrated, with price changes moving from the wholesale to the retail market. However, the price transmission process is asymmetric. In particular, price increases at the wholesale market transmit immediately to the retail market while price decreases transmit more slowly. Parameter stability test and follow-up analysis indicated that the price transmission process is asymmetric only during periods of price surges, suggesting that the rice market is not efficient during these periods.