The effects of IMF conditional programs on the unemployment rate

The fundamental mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is to ensure global financial stability and to assist countries in economic turmoil. Although there is a consensus that IMF-supported programs can have a direct effect on the labor market of recipient countries, it remains unclear how IMF participation decision and conditionalities attached to IMF loans can affect the unemployment rate of borrowing countries. Using a world sample of countries from 1980 to 2014, we investigate how lending conditional programs of the IMF affect the unemployment rate. Our analyses account for the selection bias related to, first, the IMF participation decision and, second, the conditions included within the program. We show that IMF program participation significantly increases the unemployment rate of recipient countries. Once we control for the number of conditions, however, we find that only IMF conditions have a detrimental and highly significant effect on the unemployment rate. There is evidence that the adverse short-run effect of IMF conditions holds robust in the long-run. Disaggregating IMF conditionality by issue area, we find adverse effects on the unemployment rate for four policy areas: labor market deregulation, reforms requiring privatization of state-owned enterprises, external sector reforms stipulating trade and capital account liberalization, and fiscal policy reforms that restrain government expenditure. Our initial results are found to be robust across alternative empirical specifications.     

Is Voluntary Pollution Abatement in the Absence of a Carrot or Stick Effective? Evidence from Facility Participation in the EPA’s 33/50 Program

We examine whether voluntary pollution abatement programs in which there is no program-specific participation incentive are effective in reducing emissions below what they would have been otherwise. We use data on facility participation in the 33/50 Program and emissions reported to the US EPA’s toxic releases inventory (TRI) between 1991 and 1995 for a sample of facilities whose parent firms committed to the program. By focusing on participation by individual facilities we avoid the influence of firm level incentives under the program. The mandatory disclosure of emissions data to the TRI avoids the potential bias evident in voluntarily disclosed data. We find that while facilities with larger total emissions were more likely to participate, there is no evidence of greater participation by facilities that account for a higher share of a parent firm’s 33/50 emissions. Although emissions of the 33/50 chemicals fell over the years, we find that participation in the program was not associated with the decline in the 33/50 releases generated by these facilities and the reductions seemed to have occurred for reasons unrelated to the program.     

Innovation under the Climate Wise program

This paper examines the impact of participation in the Climate Wise program, one of the largest voluntary programs enacted in the US, on innovative activity by firms. In operation from 1993 to 2000, the Climate Wise program was designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by promoting innovation in energy efficiency and energy related activities. We begin by examining what types of firms were most likely to participate in this voluntary initiative. We find that the Climate Wise program was attractive to large firms, more R&D intensive firms, and firms with more financial resources. To consider the impact of Climate Wise participation on the innovative behavior of firms, we investigate whether participants and non-participants differed in the number of successful environmental and non-environmental patent applications between 1993 and 2003. We find some evidence that participation in the Climate Wise leads to a change in environmental patenting but only among less R&D intensive firms.     

Inequality,Community Participation,and the Allocation of Collective Profits

This study analyzes the relationship between inequality in land holdings and participation in community assemblies in Mexican villages. Our identification strategy is unique in that it exploits contemporaneously exogenous variation in inequality due to historic and legal restrictions on the subdivision and sale of parcels in the communities we study. The data show that at an aggregate level, villages with more inequality in land holdings have lower participation rates. Individuals with greater land holdings relative to other community members are more likely to participate. This relationship intensifies with increasing inequality. We also consider how participation influences the allocation of public funds. We find greater investment in public goods where inequality is lower and participation higher. Finally, we demonstrate that those who are less likely to attend meetings are also less likely to receive government subsidies and benefits.     

Heterogeneous treatment and self-selection in a wage subsidy experiment

The Self-Sufficiency Project (SSP) is a research and demonstration project that offered a generous time-limited income supplement to randomly selected welfare applicants under two conditions. The first, the eligibility condition, required that they remain on welfare for at least 12 months. The second, the qualification condition, required that they find a full-time job within 12 months after establishing eligibility. In this paper we focus on a neglected and important feature of the program, namely that the financial reward for becoming qualified is inversely related to the expected wage rate. Under very simple assumptions we show that those who have a low expected wage rate have a clear incentive to establish eligibility.Empirical non-parametric evidence strongly suggests that individuals self-select into eligibility. We jointly estimate a participation equation and a wage equation that are correlated through individual random effects. Our results show that the omission of self-selectivity into qualification translates into slightly underestimated treatment effects.     

Microfinance,vulnerability and risk in low income households

We investigate if participation in the Indian Self Help Group (SHG) program results in reducing poverty and vulnerability. The theoretical framework examines the mechanisms through which the pecuniary and non-pecuniary effects of the SHG impacts the households’ ability to manage risk. We use a vulnerability measure that quantifies the welfare loss associated with poverty and different types of risks, on an Indian panel survey data. Our results show that SHG members are less vulnerable compared with a group of non-SHG (control) members. About 80% of the vulnerability faced by the households is poverty related.     

The IMF and the Liberalization of Capital Flows

We evaluate the claim that the International Monetary Fund precipitated financial crises during the 1990s, by pressuring countries to liberalize their capital accounts prematurely. Using data from a panel of developing economies from 1982–98, we examine whether the changes in the regime governing capital flows took place during participation in IMF programs. We find evidence that IMF program participation is correlated with capital account liberalization episodes during the 1990s. We verify the robustness of our results using alternative indicators of capital account openness. To determine whether decontrol was premature, we compare the economic and financial characteristics of countries that decontrolled during IMF programs with those of countries who did so independently, and find some evidence of IMF-led premature liberalizations.     

UNANTICIPATED EFFECTS OF CALIFORNIA'S PAID FAMILY LEAVE PROGRAM

We examine the effect of California paid family leave (CPFL) on young women's labor force participation and unemployment, relative to men and older women. CPFL enables workers to take at most 6 weeks of paid leave over a 12‐month period in order to bond with new born or adopted children, or to care for sick family members or ailing parents. The policy benefits women, especially young women, as they are more prone to take such a leave. However, the effect of the policy on overall labor market outcomes is less clear. We apply difference‐in‐difference techniques to identify the effects of the CPFL legislation on young women's labor force participation and unemployment. We find that the labor force participation rate, the unemployment rate, and the duration of unemployment among young women rose in California compared to men (particularly young men) and older women in California, and to other young women, men, and older women in states that did not adopt PFL. The latter two findings regarding higher young women's unemployment and unemployment duration are unanticipated effects of the CPFL program. We utilize robustness checks as well as unique placebo tests to validate these results.(JEL H43, J13, J18, J48)     

Bill Averaging Programs and Consumer Behavior: Theory and Evidence

This paper examines consumer behavior under "bill smoothing," a common pricing program for utility customers where monthly payments are equalized over a one year cycle.First, we offer a theoretical model and conclude that bill smoothing is beneficial to consumers, but leads to exaggerated swings in usage over the yearly cycle. Second, we provide statistical evidence on the determinants of voluntary participation in bill smoothing programs by consumers; financial distress and high usage are less important than generally supposed. Finally, empirical tests of our theoretical model find that (i) participation increases overall consumption; and (ii) bill smoothing leads to exaggerated usage peaks and troughs, a result that could have implications for load management programs and general energy conservation.     

The impact of trade openness on labour force participation rate

In this article, we investigate the impact of trade openness on labour force participation rate. We use tariff rate as the main indicator of trade openness and we employ the number of regional trade agreements and the average tariff rate in the neighbours’ countries as instrumental variables to diminish the endogeneity problem of the tariff rate. We find that trade openness increases the participation rate which is economically and statistically significant. The results show that this correlation is robust under controlling for different variables and using various specifications. We find that 10 percentage point increase in tariff rate lowers the participation rate by 4–6 percentage point and this relationship is more severe in the long run. Finally, we show that changes in labour force population accounts for about 27% of changes in the unemployment rate following a trade liberalization.     

Sports and cultural habits by gender: An application using count data models

This article analyses individual decisions regarding participation in two leisure activities: sports and culture. Using data from the 2002–2003 Spanish Time Use Survey (TUS), information was collected on the number of times an individual participated in sports and attended cultural events in the four weeks immediately preceding the survey. In our empirical analysis, we apply count data models to estimate the frequency of sports practice and cultural attendance, both defined in the aggregate, and we also apply those models to estimate specific activities. Moreover, we run separate estimates by gender. Our results reveal that both activities are seasonal and are more common in urban areas. In addition, family responsibilities and family size are a disincentive to engage in such activities, while non-labour income and wages exert a positive effect. In analysing the demand for specific activities, we find that participation elasticity with respect to non-labour income is usually less than one for the cultural and sports activities considered, whereas wage elasticity is generally greater than one. We also find differences by activity and gender.     

Noisy information, interest rate shocks and the Great Moderation

In this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that the Great Moderation is partly the result of a less activist monetary policy. We simulate a New Keynesian model in which the central bank can only observe a noisy estimate of the output gap and find that the less pronounced reaction of the Federal Reserve to output gap fluctuations since 1979 can account for a substantial part of the reduction in the standard deviation of GDP associated with the Great Moderation. Our simulations are consistent with the empirically documented smaller magnitude and impact of interest rate shocks since the early 1980s.     

A Spoonful of Sugar: Privatization and Popular Support for Reform in the Czech Republic

We analyze the role of privatization in creating a constituency for economic reform, markets, and democratic institutions, focusing on the Czech Republic. Drawing on a 1996 survey, we examine the 1,459 respondents' opinions on reforms, economic policies and systems, the legitimacy of transition, and democratic values. Using ordered probit estimation, we find that receiving property through restitution is strongly associated with support for reform and markets. Concerning voucher privatization, we find positive effects for participants retaining shares, but little impact of participation alone. Our simulations suggest that policy designs have substantial consequences for citizens' support of reforms, markets, and democracy.     

Political participation and entrepreneurial initial public offerings in China

This paper examines the economic consequences of political participation by entrepreneurs in China. Using unique data on political participation and initial public offerings by entrepreneurial firms, we find that firms controlled by entrepreneurs who participate in politics exhibit superior post-IPO performance. We also find that firms characterized by political participation are subject to less underpricing. Furthermore, the superior performance is concentrated among firms that operate in an environment characterized by rich rent-seeking opportunities instead of abundant business opportunities, suggesting that political participation is facilitating rent seeking rather than serving simply as a proxy for political recognition for entrepreneurship.     

Forest dependence and participation in CPR management: Empirical evidence from forest co-management in Malawi

We develop an endogenous sample selection model to investigate how forest dependence influences a household's decision to participate in forest co-management program. Using data from Chimaliro and Liwonde forest reserves in Malawi, we find that where forests primarily have a gap filling or safety net role in Chimaliro, high forest dependency induces higher rates of participation. However, with more commercial forest uses and a more heterogeneous social context as in Liwonde, high forest dependency reduces the incentives for participation. The findings point to the need to design parallel interventions alongside the forest co-management program in order to provide supplementary income sources to participants and increase the incentives for participation.     

CAN INTERNATIONAL TRANSFERS BE PROBLEMATIC? HONDURAN REMITTANCES AND LABOR SUPPLY DECISIONS

Declining work force participation rates are a potentially important public policy issue for governments in countries with large capital inflows. Here we consider remittances as both a household and individual characteristic to estimate the impact of this nonwage transfer on labor supply decisions in Honduras. Although an initial view suggests moderate reductions across the working‐age population, we find evidence of increased participation through a reallocation of labor time across work categories. Our inclusion of the individual nature of remittance reception suggests less emphasis on the unified household perspective is warranted. (JEL O15, O12, J29)     

Examining the reliability of self-reported data on school participation

Many studies evaluate the impacts of Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs on schooling using self-reports on enrollment and attendance even though there are reasons to doubt the reliability of these data. In this paper, we examine the extent to which school-age girls overstate their school participation. Using administrative data from a cash transfer experiment in Malawi and school attendance ledgers collected as part of the impact evaluation, we find that while all study participants overstate their enrollment and attendance rates, the extent to which this happens is significantly higher in the control group than the CCT arm. This finding implies that exclusive reliance on self-reported school participation data can lead to a serious underestimation of actual program impacts. We recommend that self-reports be supplemented using alternative sources of data on school participation that are appropriate to the experiment at hand — even if such efforts are likely to increase evaluation costs.     

PARTICIPATION IN WORKPLACE EMPLOYER‐SPONSORED TRAINING IN CANADA: ROLE OF FIRM CHARACTERISTICS AND WORKER ATTRIBUTES

In this work, we study the role of firm characteristics and worker attributes in determining participation in workplace employer‐sponsored training in Canada using the Workplace and Employee Survey (WES) of Statistics Canada. We attempt to answer the following questions using the rich information of firms that are available in WES data: Does firms' provision of workplace training encourage workers' participation in Canada? How do changes in market competition, organizational changes, and technological innovation affect workers' participation in workplace training in Canada? We find that firms' training provision significantly affects workers' participation in Canada. We also find that increased international competition, organizational changes, and technological innovation are significantly correlated with workers' training participation at workplaces. We note that workers in some sectors and in smaller firms have lower workplace training incidence and older, part‐time, production and marketing/sales workers and workers with preschool children participate less in workplace training. (JEL J080, J240, J290)     

Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China

Unemployment rates in countries across the world are strongly correlated with GDP. China is an unusual outlier from the pattern, whose official government statistics show abnormally low, and suspiciously stable, unemployment rates relative to its GDP. This paper reports estimates of China’s unemployment rate for its local urban Hukou population using a more reliable, nationally representative dataset for that population than in prior work, and which spans a longer period of history than in the past literature. The unemployment rates we calculate differ dramatically from those supplied in official data and are much more consistent with what is known about key historical developments in China’s labor market. The rate averaged 3.7% in 1988–1995, when the labor market was highly regulated and dominated by state-owned enterprises, but rose sharply during the period of mass layoff from 1995 to 2002, reaching an average of 9.5% in the subperiod from 2002 to 2009. The rates were even higher when demographic composition is held fixed. We can also calculate labor force participation rates, which are not available in official statistics at all. We find that they declined throughout the whole period, particularly in 1995–2002 when the unemployment rate increased most significantly. We also find that the impacts of these changes fell most heavily on the unskilled (women, those with less education, and younger individuals). Finally, estimates of unemployment and labor force participation rates are also provided for all urban residents, including migrants without local urban Hukou, and show the same patterns of change over time.     

FOOD STAMPS,TEMPORARY ASSISTANCE FOR NEEDY FAMILIES AND FOOD HARDSHIPS IN THREE AMERICAN CITIES

We examine how participation in the Food Stamp and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Programs is associated with self‐reported household food hardships, using data from a longitudinal survey of low‐income families living in Boston, Chicago and San Antonio. In addition to the measures of hardships and program participation, the survey includes measures of income, wealth, social resources, disability, physical health and family structure, measures that help us to account for selection between recipient and non‐recipient households. For our multivariate analyses, we estimate multiple indicator multiple cause models that are modified to incorporate discrete outcome variables and to account for longitudinal data. Estimates from these models reveal that participation in the Food Stamp Program is associated with fewer food hardships, while participation in the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program has no detectable association with hardships.