Managing complex adaptive systems — A co-evolutionary perspective on natural resource management

The overexploitation of natural resources and the increasing number of social conflicts following from their unsustainable use point to a wide gap between the objectives of sustainability and current resource management practices. One of the reasons for the difficulties to close this gap is that for evolving complex systems like natural and socio-economic systems, sustainability cannot be a static objective. Instead sustainable development is an open evolutionary process of improving the management of social-ecological systems, through better understanding and knowledge. Therefore, natural resource management systems need to be able to deal with different temporal, spatial and social scales, nested hierarchies, irreducible uncertainty, multidimensional interactions and emergent properties. The co-evolutionary perspective outlined in this paper serves as heuristic device to map the interactions settled in the networks between the resource base, social institutions and the behaviour of individual actors. For this purpose we draw on ideas from complex adaptive systems theory, evolutionary theory and evolutionary economics. Finally, we outline a research agenda for a co-evolutionary approach for natural resource management systems.     

Application of analytic hierarchy process-based model of Ratio of Comprehensive Cost to Comprehensive Profit (RCCCP) in pest management

After investigation and analysis of the practice of pesticide application in the protected horticultural fields of the Agricultural Experimental Zone in Pudong district, Shanghai, China, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to evaluate 5 alternative pest-control strategies (including three gray insect-proof net rooms (with mesh) of different height, white insect-proof thin film rooms (without mesh) and normal control and prevention areas (without any covering nets or thin films)). Comprehensive Profit (CP) and Comprehensive Cost (CC) were used in this paper to analyze the superiority of different strategies in protected horticultural fields for pest management. CP and CC of the pest-control strategies were used as the targets of AHP, in which CP was classified into economic, social and ecological profit, while CC was split into economic, social and ecological cost. Ratio of Comprehensive Cost to Comprehensive Profit (RCCCP) was calculated by dividing Comprehensive Cost (CC) by Comprehensive Profits (CP). According to the analysis, the best strategy was to apply gray insect-proof net rooms of 2.2 m high and 360 (12 m × 30 m) square meters in protected horticultural fields for pest management.     

A systems approach to policy analysis and development planning: Construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans

In this study, we propose a new model for systems analysis ‘of’ policy and systems analysis ‘for’ policy with the example of construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans.Our proposed model—integrated development management model (IDMM)—is conceptually based on the principles of systems thinking and integrated management approach.We present and discuss the results of our work in which we extracted all construction-related policies and strategies from eight 5-year development plans and analyzed them using the IDMM. In the light of the analyses, we give several answers to the question: “Why did the development plans fail to meet their targets in Turkey?” We propose that any development plan has to have claritas–unitas–integritas–consonantia between the management levels (normative, strategic, and operational) and components (goals, structures, and behavior) of IDMM.The paper is the first work that brings the concepts of development planning and foresight together. In a complementary stance, the time of integrating foresight and development planning has come.     

A systems approach to policy analysis and development planning: Construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans

In this study, we propose a new model for systems analysis ‘of’ policy and systems analysis ‘for’ policy with the example of construction sector in the Turkish 5-year development plans.Our proposed model—integrated development management model (IDMM)—is conceptually based on the principles of systems thinking and integrated management approach.We present and discuss the results of our work in which we extracted all construction-related policies and strategies from eight 5-year development plans and analyzed them using the IDMM. In the light of the analyses, we give several answers to the question: “Why did the development plans fail to meet their targets in Turkey?” We propose that any development plan has to have claritas-unitas-integritas-consonantia between the management levels (normative, strategic, and operational) and components (goals, structures, and behavior) of IDMM.The paper is the first work that brings the concepts of development planning and foresight together. In a complementary stance, the time of integrating foresight and development planning has come.