(Not So) Easy Come, (Still) Easy Go? Footloose Multinationals Revisited

The central question of this paper is to test whether multinational firms (MNFs) are more likely to exit the local market than domestic firms. Using firm‐level data for Belgium, we estimate a random effects probit model taking into account the endogeneity of firm size, total factor productivity (TFP) and sunk costs in firm exit. Our results highlight two features of the ‘footloose’ nature of MNFs. First, controlling for firm and sector characteristics, the exit probability of MNFs is larger than that of domestic firms. Second, MNFs have a lower sensitivity to TFP and size than do domestic firms. This means that an improvement in economic performance on the local market will not prevent a multinational from closing its local plant as much as it would for a domestic firm.     

Export Market Participation,Investments in R&D and Worker Training,and the Evolution of Firm Productivity

This paper uses micro panel data for firms in the Taiwanese electronics industry in 1986, 1991 and 1996 to investigate a firm's decision to invest in two sources of knowledge – participation in the export market and investments in R&D and/or worker training – and assess their effect on the firm's future productivity. The firm's decisions to export and invest in R&D and/or worker training are modelled with a bivariate probit model that recognises the interdependence of the decisions. The effect of these investments on the firm's future productivity trajectory is then modelled while controlling for the selection bias introduced by endo‐genous firm exit. The findings indicate a significant interaction effect between exporting and R&D investments and future productivity, after controlling for size, age and current productivity. Firms that undertake both investment activities have significantly higher future productivity than firms that do one or neither. In addition, these firms are more likely to continue investing in these activities leading to further productivity gains. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that export experience is an important source of productivity growth for Taiwanese firms and that firm investments in R&D and worker training facilitate their ability to benefit from their exposure to the export market.     

Productivity Dynamics of Small and Medium Enterprises in Taiwan

Using firm level data from Taiwan, this paper examines the link between firm size, growth and productivity. It shows that firms grow because they are more productive and not because they are larger in size. Indeed, the statistical analysis shows that while employment growth among Taiwanese firms was positively related to initial levels of total factor productivity, it was negatively related to initial size. The paper also shows that the productivity-size relationship has a virtuous cycle built in. More productive firms get larger and, in the process, obtain access to resources and information which enables them to become more productive. One implication of these results is that public policies should target productivity rather than size and should support reforms that make it possible for market mechanisms to weed out low productivity firms while facilitating the entry or growth of high productivity firms. Taiwan's ability to keep entry and exit costs low is one reason why productivity gains there have been high.     

Foreign acquisition and post-privatization exit of state-owned firms

This paper analyzes the impact of foreign and domestic ownership on the exit rates of privatized state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in transitional countries. The exit of privatized SOEs can have a profound impact on employment and on the development of local economies of transitional countries. An oligopoly model that incorporates country-level trade costs and individual SOE's productivity is developed to assess the exit of SOEs under either foreign or domestic ownership. The model shows that market competition between firms can lead to liquidation of the SOE by a domestic firm when trade costs increase. When the productivity of SOE is high, neither foreign nor domestic firm will liquidate. The predictions of the model are tested using firm-level privatization data from Central and Eastern Europe. By controlling for productivity, trade costs, and other attributes of SOEs after privatization, it is found that foreign ownership significantly reduces the probability of SOE's exit as compared to domestic ownership. Furthermore, there is evidence that as trade costs increase, the exit probability of domestically owned SOEs increases and the exit probability of foreign-owned SOEs declines.     

Domestic regulation,import penetration and firm-level productivity growth

This paper shows that the impact of import penetration on firms’ productivity growth depends on firms’ distance to the efficiency frontier and on product market regulation. Using firm-level data for a substantial number of OECD countries from the late 1990s to late 2000s, the analysis reveals nonlinear effects of both sectoral import penetration and de jure product market regulation measures, depending on firms’ positions along the global distribution of productivity. Close to the technology frontier, import penetration has a strongly positive effect on firm-level productivity growth, with less stringent domestic regulation enhancing this effect substantially. However, far from the frontier, the effect of import penetration on firm-level productivity growth is much smaller and often not significant. Its interaction with domestic regulation generally has no statistically significant effect either. The heterogeneous effects of import penetration and domestic product market regulation on firm-level productivity growth are consistent with a neo-Schumpeterian view of trade and regulation.     

Trade Liberalisation,Exit, and Output and Employment Adjustments of Australian Manufacturing Establishments

This paper investigates three potential sources of Australia’s manufacturing productivity gains from trade liberalisation in the mid‐1990s: the exit of inefficient establishments, economies of scale, and the reduction in x‐inefficiency via employment reduction. We use manufacturing establishment level data and exploit the intersectoral variation in the effective rates of assistance (ERA) to see how businesses adjusted to trade liberalisation during the period. We find the documented productivity gains to be mostly accounted for by the reduction in x‐inefficiency through employment shedding in industries experiencing a high degree of trade liberalisation. We find little evidence that the exit of inefficient establishments in highly liberalised industries contributes to productivity gains. In fact, we find that the more productive establishments are more likely to exit, perhaps reflecting product switching by these businesses to make more profitable use of inputs. Similarly, there does not appear to be a strong relationship between the extent of trade liberalisation and output adjustments. However, we do find indicative evidence of an overall productivity‐enhancing effect through economies of scale. These findings suggest that, at least for the case of Australia, the ease of making employment adjustments can be crucial for policies such as trade liberalisation to have the desired effect. In addition, trade liberalisation may provide incentives for domestic producers to seek more profitable use of their inputs and to move further downward along their cost curves. We think further studies assessing the productivity gains from product switching and economies of scale effects in both liberalised and non‐liberalised industries and focusing on the interplay between labour market policy and firm adjustments would be valuable.     

政府补贴、资源误置与制造业生产率

政府对部分企业进行补贴,会影响企业的市场进入、退出和规模,导致资源在企业之间的误置,不利于制造业生产率.本文用1998—2007年我国工业企业面板数据,研究政府补贴的资源误置效应对制造业生产率的影响及微观机制.从生产率的分解上看,我国制造业中存在企业之间的资源误置效应,对制造业生产率具有负面作用.实证研究发现,政府补贴是导致这种资源误置的重要因素,补贴会改变市场的广延边际和集约边际,导致资源在受补贴企业和未补贴企业之间的误置,降低制造业的生产率,并且这种资源误置效应在国有资本比重高的行业中更严重.具体来看,广延边际方面,补贴阻碍了市场进入和市场退出,受补贴企业相对于未补贴企业的市场进入和市场退出概率均较低;集约边际方面,补贴有利于受补贴企业扩大生产规模,并挤出未补贴企业的市场份额.本文的启示在于,政府补贴需要在一般均衡框架下考虑其对企业动态和资源配置的影响.     

Real exchange rate shocks and new product margins in the export market

This study examines the impact of industry real exchange rate (RER) shocks on plant and product exports using a comprehensive dataset for South Korea from 1990 to 1996. We find that RER changes have heterogeneous effects on real exports of existing exporters in terms of their productivity, and the positive RER depreciation effect on exports is more pronounced for less productive plants. At a product level, we find new evidence that a weak home currency prompts exporters to introduce new products to the export market, especially more remarkable for low-productivity plants. In contrast, a strong home currency leads to product exit with less significance.     

Survival of New Plants in Different Industry Environments in Norwegian Manufacturing: AS Semi-Proportional Cox Model Approach

Using a rich plant level data set from Norwegian manufacturing we analyse possible determinants of survival for ten plant cohorts during the period 1977–92. By specifying a semi-proportional hazards model of plant exit, we are able to accommodate for structural differences between entrepreneurial entrants and new plants of existing firms. Industry heterogeneity in terms of plant size, capital intensity and productivity is also accounted for in the model. According to our estimated models, there are significant structural differences between new small firms and new plants of existing firms. For example, the size of the plant relative to the industry average had less influence on the survival probability for entrepreneurial entrants. Hence, the empirical results suggest that the two types of entrants establish themselves in different market niches with distinct technological characteristics. The results underscore the necessity of adjusting for the dissimilar environments facing plants which enter different industries.     

The impact of trade liberalization on productivity: Evidence from India's formal and informal manufacturing sectors

Despite a large literature investigating the impacts of trade on firm productivity, there is almost no evidence on how small firms react to trade liberalization. Using a unique dataset of firm-level surveys that are representative of the entire Indian manufacturing industry, I show that India's unilateral reduction in final goods tariffs increased the average productivity of small, informal firms, which account for 80% of Indian manufacturing employment but have been excluded from previous studies. In contrast, the increase in productivity among larger, formal firms was driven primarily by the concurrent reduction in input tariffs. By examining the effect of the tariff liberalization on the distributions of productivity and firm size, I find evidence consistent with the exit of the smallest, least productive firms from the informal sector. In addition, I find that although the decline in final goods tariffs did not significantly impact average formal sector productivity, it did increase productivity among the top quantiles of the distribution.     

The impact of trade liberalization on productivity: Evidence from India's formal and informal manufacturing sectors

Despite a large literature investigating the impacts of trade on firm productivity, there is almost no evidence on how small firms react to trade liberalization. Using a unique dataset of firm-level surveys that are representative of the entire Indian manufacturing industry, I show that India's unilateral reduction in final goods tariffs increased the average productivity of small, informal firms, which account for 80% of Indian manufacturing employment but have been excluded from previous studies. In contrast, the increase in productivity among larger, formal firms was driven primarily by the concurrent reduction in input tariffs. By examining the effect of the tariff liberalization on the distributions of productivity and firm size, I find evidence consistent with the exit of the smallest, least productive firms from the informal sector. In addition, I find that although the decline in final goods tariffs did not significantly impact average formal sector productivity, it did increase productivity among the top quantiles of the distribution.     

What goes around comes around: The effects of sanctions on Swedish firms in the wake of the Ukraine crisis

This study uses the sanctions imposed on and by Russia in 2014 as an exogenous shock on Swedish firms. The results suggest that the total short-run cost of these sanctions on the Swedish economy amounted to around 1 billion SEK in 2013 prices, which implies a rather limited impact (around 0.025% of the Swedish GDP). The sanction effects were, however, highly asymmetric, and the direct effect on firms exporting banned products to Russia was a 70% drop in exports to Russia and an increased probability of exiting this market with 0.6 units. The indirect effects on nonbanned products were a 36% drop in sales and an increased probability of exiting of around 0.2 units. The disruption on the Russian market also created ripple effects outside this market, which was manifested in a 20% drop in the domestic production of banned products, a 12% drop in sales on markets outside Russia and a new export pattern. These negative ripple effects were also found to be pronounced in firms with their core products exposed to these sanctions, in firms with financial distress and in regions with a relatively low level of labour productivity.     

The role of market orientation,relational capital,and internationalization speed in foreign market exit and re-entry decisions under turbulent conditions

Firms’ internationalization strategies can vary with changing environments. Occasionally, a firm may choose to re-enter a foreign market it had abandoned in the past if environmental conditions have improved. The present study provides insight into the foreign market exit and subsequent re-entry processes. Specifically, we utilize the strategic flexibility perspective to investigate the impact of market orientation, relational capital, and internationalization speed on market exit and re-entry decisions under turbulence in a host market. Using a sample of 156 Turkish firms that operated during the Arab Spring in the Egyptian market between 2010 and 2015, we find that the market-oriented firms are more flexible in their market exit decisions than less market-oriented organizations. In addition, relational capital specific to the host country has a negative impact on market exit decisions under conditions of political conflict. The results also suggest that strong ties with partners in the host country increase the propensity to re-enter the market.     

Creative destruction and regional productivity growth: evidence from the Dutch manufacturing and services industries

Do firm entry and exit improve the competitiveness of regions? If so, is this a universal mechanism or is it contingent on the type of industry or region in which creative destruction takes place? This paper analyses the effect of firm entry and exit on the competitiveness of regions, as measured by total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Based on a study across 40 regions in the Netherlands over the period 1988–2002, we find that firm entry is related to productivity growth in services, but not in manufacturing. The positive impact found in services does not necessarily imply that new firms are more efficient than incumbent firms; high degrees of creative destruction may also improve the efficiency of incumbent firms. We also find that the impact of firm dynamics on regional productivity in services is higher in regions exhibiting diverse but related economic activities.     

Trade and foreign direct investment-related impacts of Brexit

We offer a general-equilibrium analysis of Brexit incorporating the state-of-the-art differences in productivity and firms' selection within manufacturing sectors à la Melitz (Econometrica, 2003, 71 , 1695) and multinationals in services. Our results suggest that trade, output and average productivity diminish across most sectors in the UK and the Rest of the European Union (REU), as well as GDP, welfare, wages and capital remuneration. However, the UK loses more due to the missing preferential access to the huge EU market. Significant welfare losses along the extensive margin occur in the UK due to the lost imported varieties produced by highly productive European firms. These cannot be compensated by the new varieties of less productive domestic firms that enter the British market due to increased protectionism and reduced import competition. In addition, the emergence of barriers against multinationals, which is often ignored in previous studies, explains approximately one third of the negative effect in both the UK and REU. Furthermore, we show that the Brexit impact is about only half if we do not include both foreign direct investment barriers and Melitz structure. Thus, previous studies without these important model features would underestimate the Brexit impact significantly.     

Economic performance of Brazilian manufacturing firms: a counterfactual analysis of innovation impacts

This article assesses if innovators outperform non-innovators in Brazilian manufacturing during 1996–2002. To do so, we begin with a simple theoretical model and test the impacts of technological innovation (treatment) on innovating firms (treated) by employing propensity score matching techniques. Correcting for the survivorship bias in the period, it was verified that, on an average, the accomplishment of technological innovations produces positive and significant impacts on the employment, the net revenue, the labor productivity, the capital productivity, and market share of the firms. However, this result was not observed for the mark-up. Especially, the net revenue reflects more robustly the impacts of the innovations. Quantitatively speaking, innovating firms experienced a 10.8–12.5 percentage points (p.p. henceforth) higher growth on employment, a 18.1–21.7 p.p. higher growth on the net revenue, a 10.8–11.9 p.p. higher growth on labor productivity, a 11.8–12.0 p.p. higher growth on capital productivity, and a 19.9–24.3 p.p. higher growth on their market share, relative to the average of the non-innovating firms in the control group. It was also observed that the conjunction of product and process innovations, relative to other forms of innovation, presents the stronger impacts on the performance of Brazilian firms.     

Firm Linkages to Scandals via Directors and Professional Service Firms: Insights from the Backdating Scandal

We examine market reactions to the stock options backdating scandal in a slightly unusual way, but focusing on firms who were not perceived to have had a backdating concern, but were instead linked to firms who did have a backdating concern. These linkages can be found via board interlocks and the roles those directors perform. In addition we examine the linkages which occur from shared professional services firms, such as auditors and outside legal counsel. That these potential conduits are available is not in question, but rather, do investors perceive the conduits are used to pass along information about backdating stock options? We then ask if affiliation with dominant audit and legal services firms ameliorates or exacerbates those investor market reactions. We find that firms linked to the scandalized firms also face negative reactions, which are worsened when they also are serviced by professional services firms who are themselves are also linked to the managerial practice.     

Globalization and firm level adjustment with imperfect labor markets

In a model with search generated unemployment and heterogeneity on both sides of the labor market, exporting firms are bigger and pay higher wages than other firms. Moreover, there is imperfect persistence in the decision to export and liberalization increases the wage gap between high- and low-skill workers. Openness can increase aggregate productivity in export-oriented markets while generating within-firm productivity losses for the weakest firms. In contrast, openness can lead to within-firm productivity gains for the weakest firms in import-competing industries.     

我国出口企业的“生产率悖论”及其解释

本文用1998-2007年的中国工业企业数据,选取近300万家企业,分20个行业检验了我国企业出口与生产率的关系,结果显示:只供应国内市场的企业生产率反而高于出口企业;并且企业出口与生产率呈现负相关关系,即生产率越低的企业出口越多。此结论与新-新贸易理论的结论相悖,我们称之为生产率悖论。进一步检验还发现,企业规模是影响出口的主要因素,而出口贸易对于企业生产率的影响是不显著的。笔者认为,导致我国出口企业出现生产率悖论的原因可能在于我国加工贸易较多,且占据了出口贸易的主体。     

Exporting and productivity in business services: Evidence from the United States

Does exporting make firms more productive, or do more productive firms choose to become exporters? This paper considers the link between exporting and productivity for a sample of firms in US business services. We find that larger, more productive firms are more likely to become exporters, but that these factors do not necessarily influence the extent of exporting. This conforms with previous literature that there is a self-selection effect into exporting. We then test for the effect of exporting on productivity levels after allowing for this selection effect. We model both the relationship between exporting and productivity, and a simultaneous relationship between export intensity and productivity after allowing for selection bias. In both cases we find an association, indicating that productivity is positively linked both to exporting and to increased exposure to international markets.