A computer model for the financial analysis of urban housing projects

A financial analysis model has been implemented within the framework of the APL time-sharing system. The model allows different levels of input and output commands which can be used by persons with different degrees of familiarity with computing, in general, and the APL System in particular. It is the result of a joint study between IBM and the Urban Coalition aiming at providing a computer model of the urban housing process which would allow both government planners and private developers to analyze the financial prospects of individual housing projects under a variety of subsidy provisions and other constraints such as FHA regulations concerning profits. The model includes provisions for different types of sponsors of urban housing projects allowing for different tax treatment of profits and losses, and different formulas for estimating the rent charged. The basic output is either in the form of a summary of financial figures or complete financial tables such as income statements, balance sheets and cash flows.     

Evolution of urban housing stocks: A model applied to Baltimore and Houston

Historical simulations of urban residential growth in Baltimore and Houston based on a model of the growth process which has two distinct components are presented. The vintage component utilizes the growth of income and population, and an assumption that housing is putty-clay, to predict the age distribution of the housing stock in each period. The spatial component of the model determines where this housing construction will take place according to (1) housing is built on vacant land and (2) the pattern of construction obeys the rules of the standard monocentric models. Housing is demolished when economically obsolete. The putty-clay (vintage) aspect of the model produces fairly accurate city-wide vintage distributions, but there is much more mixing of vintages and income (in Baltimore) by location than predicted, even under monocentric assumptions most favorable to mixing.     

Racial prejudice in a search model of the urban housing market

A simple model of buyer search in an urban housing market is employed to demonstrate that if some whites are unwilling to sell housing to blacks competitive equilibria in which blacks pay more for housing than whites are sustainable. The model is also used to consider a number of issues in the literature on housing discrimination. Most important, it is shown that in equilibrium the housing market will be racially segmented under a wide variety of conditions.     

土地政策和城市住房发展

本文首先分析了北京的住房市场 ,然后对住房价格的构成及其变化进行了分析 ,结合微观经济学理论 ,总结出北京市房价高的原因 ,即 ,(1)房地产开发过程中没有不变成本 ,因而没有规模经济 ;(2 )根据基准地价系统 ,容积率决定地价 ,这一方面与西方城市经济学理论相悖 ,另一方面使房地产商没有经济利益驱动 ,资源没有得到合理强度地利用。最后 ,本文提出了进一步改革的建议和对策。     

Property taxes and urban housing abandonment

This paper formulates and estimates an economic model of landlord housing abandonment, using New York City data. A major focus of the study is to investigate the importance of property taxes in the abandonment decision, as opposed to such factors as the types of buildings or the characteristics of households occupying the neighborhood. There are two major results: first, cities can reduce the rate of abandonment by initiating foreclosure as soon as buildings go into arrears on property tax payments (rather than allowing a grace period), and second, property taxes are an important and significant determinant of abandonment rates. The benefits and costs of a policy whereby cities would systematically reduce property taxes in blighted neighborhoods by lowering assessment levels are also explored.     

A dymimic model of housing price determination

This paper presents and estimates a model of the resale housing market. The data are a cross-section of monthly time series obtained from the multiple-listing service for a suburb of San Diego. The model is specified and estimated as a dynamic multiple indicator multiple cause system of equations where the capitalization rate is taken to be an unobservable time series to be estimated jointly with the unknown parameters. These are estimated by maximum likelihood using an EM algorithm based upon Kalman filtering and smoothing.The specification of the model features hedonic equations for each house sale and a dynamic equation for the capitalization rate which is constrained to make the expectation of prices equal the present value of the net returns to home ownership whenever the economic variables stabilize at steady state values. Out of steady state, the capitalization rate slowly adapts to new information.The model attributes a large portion of housing price increases of the 1970's to a fall in the capitalization rate which in turn was driven by rental inflation, tax rates and mortgage rates. Post-sample simulations indicate an initial flattening of housing inflation rates and later a fall brought on by the increase in steady state capitalization rates. In-sample simulations show that although both Proposition 13 and the inflation induced rise in the marginal income tax rates provided partial explanations for the fall in capitalization rates, the single most important factor was the acceleration in price of housing services which interacted with the tax treatment of home ownership to produce an amazing 18% average annual rate of price increase over the last seven years of the 1970's.     

A model of rental and owner-occupied housing

A complete model of owner-occupied and rental housing is developed. The model allows for the endogenous determination of rents, the user cost of owner-occupied housing and housing tenure choice by individuals. In the short run, structure prices are endogenous, while in the long run the size of the housing stock adjusts to equate structure prices to exogenous construction costs. Comparative static results emphasize the importance of marginal tax rates and distinguishing between the short and long run for a complete understanding of the impacts of inflation on housing markets.     

经济适用房政策绩效评析

利用帕累托最优和消费者(生产者)剩余理论对经济适用房建设的政策目标进行了经济学分析.依据我国31个城市的数据,通过测算价格、竣工量和空置率等指标,对城市经济适用房供给政策绩效进行了评价.研究结论可以为地方政府制定城市经济适用房政策提供依据.     

小额信贷与农民工居住问题的缓解

综述了小额信贷的研究与实践,描述了目前城市农民工住房的特点以及存在的问题,认为应借鉴小额信贷在国内外的发展模式,扶助解决农民工住房问题。通过对比不同行业就业条件下的农民工的工作、生活方式和居住条件,经过合理假设,设计出一个扶助解决城市农民工就业地居住问题的实验性住房小额信贷模式,并就模式的可行性、经济效益以及社会效益等方面进行了分析和展望。     

Variable elasticity of substitution in urban housing production

The notion that the elasticity of substitution in urban housing production should vary with changing intensities of land use seems to be realistic and theoretically viable. Hence the variable elasticity of substitution production function has been proposed by some authors. However, it suffers from a serious shortcoming that the elasticity of substitution should not exceed unity. To allow for flexibility in the range of the elasticity of substitution, we explore a general functional form for the housing production function, the weak disposability of inputs production function in particular. Our empirical findings, based on the Santa Clara County single-family housing data, provide evidence that this general function is a more accurate specification of urban housing production than the variable elasticity of substitution function.     

城市规划对住房可支付性的影响

以场景分析法剖析城市规划与住房可支付性之间的关系,认为城市规划对住房可支付性具有双重影响:其限制作用可能导致住房价格上涨,其再分配作用则可对可支付住房进行补贴。提出通过城市规划提升住房可支付性的两条途径:直接途径为通过增加住房供给来达到提升可支付性的目的;间接途径为通过抽取规划得益来补贴住房,以提升住房的可支付性。在房价与需求双高的条件下,住房市场持续存在经济租金,因此抽取规划得益具有很强的可操作性,有可能成为解决中国住房可支付性问题的现实途径。     

A general equilibrium urban location model with regional labor mobility

The model determines labor supply, land area, exports, imports, and land use intensity for an urban area. The rest-of-the-world is represented by summary supply and demand equations. General solution for first-degree homogeneous housing, export, and preference functions is given. Numerical solutions CES functions are presented.     

A model of growth with inherited tastes

This research aims at studying a general equilibrium closed economy with overlapping generations and inherited tastes (aspirations), as in de la Croix (Econ Lett 53(1):89–96, 1996). It shows that the interaction between the intensity of aspirations and the elasticity of substitution of effective consumption affects the qualitative and quantitative long-term dynamics from both local and global perspectives. The related literature is extended by showing that (1) the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation found by de la Croix (1996) does not necessarily give rise to fluctuations and (2) endogenous (long-lasting) fluctuations occur through the emergence of period-doubling bifurcations.     

城市发展与住房意愿支付价格

以城市在岗职工的平均劳动收入水平和反映城市生活质量的各类宜居性指标建立了中国35个主要城市的城市发展与住房需求关系的模型,并以此估计了城市住房意愿支付价格。实证结果表明,城市在岗职工的平均劳动收入水平和以各类宜居性指标反映的城市生活质量可以解释70%左右住房价格的城市间差异。虽然城市劳动收入对住房意愿支付价格的影响仍然很大,但随着社会经济的发展,中国主要城市的生活质量对住房意愿支付价格增长的贡献有逐步增大的趋势。     

我国城市移民的住房需求分析

农民工是构成城市移民的主要成分,尽管住房并不是移民支出的主要部分,大多数农民工在进城后选择低端房屋,但家庭聚居方式让移民对住房的要求逐步提高。计算发现,我国每年新增约200万-250万城市移民,即使按照廉租住房标准给他们提供住房,每年的需求增量也多达2600万平方米。因此,解决城市移民的住房问题对经济社会协调发展具有重要意义。     

A simple model of cumulative prospect theory

The present paper combines loss attitudes and linear utility by providing an axiomatic analysis of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) in the framework for decision under uncertainty. We derive a two-sided variant of Choquet expected utility (CEU) with possibly different capacities for gains and for losses, and linear utility. Naturally, utility may have a kink at the status quo, which allows for the exhibition of loss aversion. The central condition of our model is termed independence of common increments.     

The simple analytics of optimal growth with illegal migrants: A clarification

This paper reexamines the welfare effects of illegal immigration studied by Hazari and Sgro [The simple analytics of optimal growth with illegal migrants. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 28(1) 141–151]. In contrast to their negative conclusion, we obtain ambiguous welfare prediction which is due to the presence of two opposing effects at work: a positive exploitation effect and a negative intertemporal effect. With Cobb–Douglas production technology, we show that per capita domestic consumption rises in the presence of illegal migration.