Spatial Growth and Redevelopment with Perfect Foresight and Durable Housing

In this paper, I present a theoretical model of the spatial growth of an urban area with durable housing. I combine several assumptions that typically complicate the analysis: (i) housing developers have perfect foresight; (ii) the initial development and many waves of redevelopment are considered in each developer's plan; and (iii) the closed-city assumption is made, so that the time path of population is exogenous and that of consumer utility is endogenous. I still obtain explicit solutions for the spatial pattern of urban growth, and for the timing of the initial residential development and each successive redevelopment at each distance from the urban center. I compare perfect-foresight growth to growth with static expectations, and I examine the comparative statics of both.     

Evolution of urban housing stocks: A model applied to Baltimore and Houston

Historical simulations of urban residential growth in Baltimore and Houston based on a model of the growth process which has two distinct components are presented. The vintage component utilizes the growth of income and population, and an assumption that housing is putty-clay, to predict the age distribution of the housing stock in each period. The spatial component of the model determines where this housing construction will take place according to (1) housing is built on vacant land and (2) the pattern of construction obeys the rules of the standard monocentric models. Housing is demolished when economically obsolete. The putty-clay (vintage) aspect of the model produces fairly accurate city-wide vintage distributions, but there is much more mixing of vintages and income (in Baltimore) by location than predicted, even under monocentric assumptions most favorable to mixing.     

A probabilistic approach to the structure of rental housing markets

A probabilistic view of the structure of urban housing markets is developed. The demand side is based on aggregate probabilistic demand functions derived from microbehavioral random utility theory. The supply side examines the short-run pricing of the housing stock by developing “asking rent theory,” which explains how a housing supplier must find the optimal rent that maximizes expected revenue. Next, concepts of aggregate market clearing and market equilibrium are defined. Finally, a two-submarket model with specific assumptions regarding the representation of demand and the nature of market signaling is examined in detail and is given a graphical illustration. In closing, directions for extending the probabilistic approach both within and beyond urban analysis are pointed out. All analysis in this paper is for a stationary urban economy, with the housing stock assumed fixed.     

城市空间结构理论——单中心城市静态模型

首先介绍了在西方城市经济理论中被广泛接受的单中心城市空间结构静态模型。然后,利用比较静态分析方法(comparativestaticanalysis),分析区位、居民收入及交通费用(区位,居民收入及交通费用为模型的外生变量(exogenousvariable))对价格和房屋消费量(价格和房屋消费量为模型的内生变量(endogenousvariable))的影响。最后,理论模型通过引进一般住房生产函数,推导出土地价格及资本密度(即建筑高度)的空间变化规律。通过对城市经济模型进一步分析(对极值条件或解的微分解析分析)得出地价(地租),资本密度(或称容积率),人口密度的空间分布规律,这些规律对城市规划,城市政策,引进市场原则和价格机制来提高城市土地利用效率都有理论指导意义。     

Wild Dragons in the City: Urban Political Economy,Affordable Housing Development and the Performative World‐making of Economic Models

This article explores the potential to mobilize in an urban context the key insights of the burgeoning literature on the performativity of economics. It argues that our understanding of contemporary urban political‐economic transformation needs to explicitly recognize the active role of economics in making and remaking the urban world, as opposed to merely describing and analysing it in some kind of passive, detached fashion. It develops this argument through the elaboration of a case study of just such world‐making in action: the growing use in the United Kingdom, since the early 2000s, of economic models for assessing the viability of affordable housing provision in new residential developments. The world of urban redevelopment that such models attempt to describe formulaically has, the article submits, increasingly come to act according to the model and the assumptions it contains; the model, in this sense, has been progressively actualized in the urban landscape. The article conceptualizes such performative economic models as examples of what Michel Callon calls economics ‘in the wild’, and it focuses on the work of the leading commercial developer and marketer of such models in the affordable housing planning environment over the last decade — a consulting company called Three Dragons.     

我国普通商品住房供求的影响因素及其稳定性研究

本文利用1997年到2009年全国以及各地区的房地产面板数据,借鉴蛛网模型的相关理论,构建供给与需求的联立方程,选择固定效应IV估计法拟合面板联立方程模型,对普通商品住房供求的影响因素及其稳定性进行了实证研究。结果表明,我国的普通商品住房市场处于不稳定状态,普通商品住房当期及滞后期的价格、城镇人均可支配收入、城镇就业人口、土地购置面积、经济适用房、别墅的供求状况等因素都对普通商品住房的供求变化产生较为显著的影响。     

Building ages and urban growth

This paper presents an empirical test of a hypothesis derived from a theoretical urban growth model developed by Brueckner and von Rabenau (1981). The model portrays a monocentric city with radial commuting where housing developers choose among a number of infinite-horizon land-use strategies with the knowledge that the urban population will change discontinuously at a future date τ. The model suggests that a large population increase will raise housing prices sufficiently to make it worthwhile for developers to replace old centrally-located structures at τ. When population increases moderately or declines, replacement will not be optimal and original structures will be left standing forever. Regression results relating 1970 central-city building ages to prior urbanized area population growth confirm the existence of the inverse relationship between building ages and prior growth predicted by the theory.     

房地产市场非理性运势形成机理及其破难建制研究

自1998年停止福利分房、推行住房商品化以来,中国房地产市场全面复苏。近10年来,在连续多年保持高速增长的发展态势下,全国各城市地价、房价均出现大幅上涨,尽管从2005年开始,政府不断进行宏观调控,但仍然难抑上涨趋势。本文以杭州为例,运用房地产市场正反馈交易理论探讨城市房地产市场非理性运势形成机理及其破难建制,为政府宏观调控房地产市场提供科学依据。     

我国城市增长绩效评价研究

本文采用DEA方法构建评价城市增长绩效的静态模型和动态模型,分析我国34个城市1992～2008年间城市增长的静态和动态绩效.根据非参数统计假设检验-Mann-Whitney U检验结果,2008年我国中部与西部地区的城市增长静态增长绩效并没有显著的差异,而西部、中部与东部地区均存在显著差异.从1992～2008年,我...     

城市发展与住房意愿支付价格

以城市在岗职工的平均劳动收入水平和反映城市生活质量的各类宜居性指标建立了中国35个主要城市的城市发展与住房需求关系的模型,并以此估计了城市住房意愿支付价格。实证结果表明,城市在岗职工的平均劳动收入水平和以各类宜居性指标反映的城市生活质量可以解释70%左右住房价格的城市间差异。虽然城市劳动收入对住房意愿支付价格的影响仍然很大,但随着社会经济的发展,中国主要城市的生活质量对住房意愿支付价格增长的贡献有逐步增大的趋势。     

Urban general equilibrium models and simplicial search algorithms

This paper describes how simplicial search algorithms work, and discusses how they may be used to solve static theoretical urban models. If such algorithms are to be used, land must be treated as consisting of a number of discrete sections. It is argued that this is not a serious disadvantage, and that for many purposes such discrete models have significant advantages over models in which land is treated as continuous. In particular, it is possible to deal with several groups of people having different tastes and incomes. Several related models are described, and some interesting qualitative results are presented.     

房地产市场非理性运势形成机理及其破难建制研究

自1998年停止福利分房、推行住房商品化以来，中国房地产市场全面复苏。近10年来，在连续多年保持高速增长的发展态势下，全国各城市地价、房价均出现大幅上涨，尽管从2005年开始，政府不断进行宏观调控，但仍然难抑上涨趋势。本文以杭州为例，运用房地产市场正反馈交易理论探讨城市房地产市场非理性运势形成机理及其破难建制，为政府宏观调控房地产市场提供科学依据。     

The economics of urban yard space: An “implicit-market” model for housing attributes

A theoretical housing model is developed embodying the approach of the recent hedonic price literature. Instead of focusing on a scalar “housing service” consumption measure, the model portrays housing as a commodity with two attributes: floor space and yard space. Developers react to a consumer bid-rent function, which relates dwelling rent to floor space, yard space, and location, in choosing the profit-maximizing characteristics of their housing complexes. The spatial behavior of the developer's choice variables is investigated (an interesting question is whether yards are larger farther from the urban center), and a comparative static analysis of the housing market equilibrium is presented.     

A City without Slums: Urban Renewal, Public Housing, and Downtown Revitalization in Kansas City, Missouri

Most scholarly efforts to understand the political economy of postwar urban redevelopment have typically viewed urban renewal and public housing as "housing" programs that originated with the "federal" government. Yet this view is problematic for two reasons. First, it fails to specify the key actors and organized interests, especially real estate officials and downtown business elites, in the programmatic design and implementation of urban renewal and public housing. Second, this view does not fully acknowledge the dislocating and segregative effects of urban renewal and public housing on central city neighborhoods and the role these private-public initiatives played in shaping demographic and population patterns in the postwar era. I draw upon archival data and newspaper articles, real estate industry documents, government reports, and interviews to examine the origin, local implementation, and segregative effects of urban renewal and public housing in Kansas City, Missouri. I explore the role of the ideology of privatism—the underlying commitment by the public sector to enhancing the growth and prosperity of private institutions—in shaping the postwar "system" of urban economic development in which urban renewal and public housing were formulated and implemented. Focusing on the interlocking nature of race and class, I identify the critical links between urban renewal and public housing, and the long-term impact of these programs on metropolitan development in the decades after World War II.     

An alternative test of the hedonic theory of housing markets

In this paper the hedonic theory of housing markets is used to generate a multinomial logit model of household behavior in an urban housing market. Application of hedonic theory to housing markets is by now fairly familiar and a link to multinomial logit has also been established. However, by emphasizing more heavily the bid price interpretation of hedonic theory, this paper develops a new connection to econometric estimation that essentially involves running the usual logit equations in reverse. One advantage of this approach is that the link between the logit equations and hedonic theory involves bid price rather than utility functions, and this in turn permits the empirical results to be given an extremely clear interpretation. Furthermore, in contrast to the standard logit model, the extreme value distribution required to justify the estimation technique emerges endogenously as part of the analysis.     

Racism and urban structure

This paper begins the task of integrating models of racist behavior into general theories of urban land use. The paper derives equilibrium prices for a racist city and demonstrates that the city is less dense at the core, more dense in the suburbs, and covers a larger area than an unprejudiced city. A more complex theory of housing supply is then developed, and it is shown that racism's impact on the ghetto depends upon the ease with which maintenance can be reduced, the cost of replacing abandoned housing, and the nature of legal controls on housing quality.     

基于SD的城镇住房保障规模对商品房价格抑制效应仿真研究

为从定量上了解城镇住房保障规模对商品房价格影响的变化规律,本文应用Granger因果分析理论确定了影响住房保障规模和商品房价格的主要因素及其关系,构建了住房保障规模的系统动力学模型,并进行了模拟仿真。结果显示,住房保障规模增加10%可抑制商品房价格4.67%的上涨幅度,表明了保障性住房的投入对商品房价格的抑制效应,并就如何加快保障性住房建设提出了建议。     

Penalty and related estimation strategies in the spatial error model

Spatial autoregressive models are powerful tools in the analysis of data sets from diverse scientific areas of research such as econometrics, plant species richness, cancer mortality rates, image processing, analysis of the functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data, and many more. An important class in the host of spatial autoregressive models is the class of spatial error models in which spatially lagged error terms are assumed. In this paper, we propose efficient shrinkage and penalty estimators for the regression coefficients of the spatial error model. We carry out asymptotic as well as simulation analyses to illustrate the gain in efficiency achieved by these new estimators. Furthermore, we apply the new methodology to housing prices data and provide a bootstrap approach to compute prediction errors of the new estimators.