我国产业结构的关联效应研究——基于2007年我国投入产出表的分析

文章利用我国2007年投入产出表,计算我国42部门的影响力系数以及感应度系数从而进行产业关联效应分析,确定我国的主导产业,并为我国的产业结构调整提出建议。     

西安市主导产业选择的研究——基于西安市2007年投入产出表

主导产业能够对经济发展和产业结构的调整起到引导和带动作用。本文依据西安市2007年投入产业表,加工计算出影响力系数和感应度系数,并确定出西安市的主导产业。     

航空运输业社会经济效益分析

航空运输业对促进国家和地区的经济发展发挥着重要的作用。在航空运输业带来的经济效益中,属于航空运输企业的只有一小部分,更大的比重体现在其对相关产业的推动作用上,因此有必要对航空运输业产生的社会经济效益进行分析和测算。本文通过对2007年的《中国投入产出表》进行调整,运用投入产出法测算出2010年航空运输业的社会经济效益。从结果可以看出,航空运输业所产生的间接经济效益要远大于其直接经济效益。     

Manufacturing linkages, industrial dynamics and the transmission of growth

In order to identify the ‘propulsive’ industries of Perroux and the industrial hierarchy of Aujac, an interindustry connectivity matrix is set up using interindustry transactions data from the United Kingdom national input-output matrix. By powering this binary matrix a measure of the connectivity of each industrial sector is created. The best-connected industries are found to lie largely within the metal manufacture and engineering sectors. At the same time key industrial sectors which though small in output occupy critical positions within the matrix and the industrial core are identified. The implications of the findings for regional policy are then discussed.     

Inappropriate industries and inefficient resource-use in bangladesh: Some evidence from input-output analysis

A 47-sector input-output table was used to consider the appropriateness of Bangladeshi industries given their labour-capital requirements and relative availability of labour and capital in the economy. We examined the efficiency of industries in terms of needed production to satisfy final demand given relative factor intensities. The findings suggest that agricultural industries are most appropriate to Bangladesh. A case, in terms of attaining the highest returns on capital, can be made for directing capital to agricultural and agroindustries as well as for avoiding (subject to qualifications) construction and energy industries. It seems that a number of urban located industries with inappropriate factor proportions have been developed. There is a case on productivity grounds for expanding Bangladeshi investment in industries based on living resources.     

低碳经济之体育相关产业发展方向探讨

低碳经济是一种社会可持续发展的新经济战略模式。中国体育产业即将进入快速发展的爆发期,体育相关产业作为体育产业的重要组成部分,面临着一个产业化转型与升级的重要历史时期。在体育相关产业向低碳经济转型和升级的过程中,有着诸多的制约因素,同时也提供了一定的机遇。本文就如何实现体育产业可持续健康发展,对低碳经济发展模式下体育相关产业发展方向进行了探讨。     

Estimation and simulation of industry factor demand equations

A factor demand model derived from the Generalized Leontief Cost Function is outlined. The model is estimated for 53 U.S. industries which together make up the entire U.S. economy. The purpose of the model is to provide long-run forecasts of equipment investment and labor productivity within the context of an input-output forecasting model. Extensive discussion is devoted to selection of functional form, modeling of dynamics, and estimation technique, with special emphasis upon the considerations which uniquely confront the forecaster. An array of a priori constraints are imposed upon the estimation, reflecting a body of empirical evidence and theoretical requirements. In addition, elasticity estimates are reported, as well as evidence on the short-run simulation performance of the mode.     

Pollution-related variable input-output model: The Tulsa SMSA as a case study

Regional planners face conflicting goals of promoting regional growth and maintaining a cleaner environment since such growth usually causes polluted air. To help understand this complex relationship, pollution-related variable input-output model is developed. An interesting feature of this model is its ability to respond to both income and substitution effects. The pollution may be created not only by an increase in final demand (income effect) but also by a change in input cost (substitution effect). The conventional pollution related input-output model ([2.]) fails to capture the pollution effect associated with the substitution effect. Using the Tulsa SMSA as a case study, the operational impact of entry of a bicycle industry in the area to observe the development potential of other industries and resulting impact on air quality is simulated. Industrial impact was measured in terms of industrial output, personal income, employment, and regional import and export. The pollution impact was measured in terms of particulates, sulfur oxides, hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides. The simulation analysis of antipollution control measures emphasized the substitution effect of the pollution-related variable input-output model. As input cost is increased due to antipollution control measures, equilibrium prices are increased, and technical coefficients are changed as a result of substituting behavior of firms. A change in technical coefficients affects both the output and the pollutants.     

Productivity,price recovery,capacity constraints and their financial consequences

Mining and fishing are both extractive industries, although one resource is renewable and the other is not. Miners and fishers pursue financial objectives, although their objectives may differ. In both industries financial performance is influenced by productivity and prices. Finally, in both industries capacity constraints influence financial performance, perhaps but not necessarily through their impact on productivity, and both industries encounter external as well as internal capacity constraints. In this study we develop an analytical framework that links all four phenomena. We use return on assets to measure financial performance, and our analytical framework is provided by the duPont triangle. We measure productivity change in two ways, with a theoretical technology-based index and with empirical price-based indexes. We measure price change with empirical quantity-based indexes. We measure internal capacity utilization by relating a pair of output quantity vectors representing actual output and full capacity output, and we develop physical and economic measures of internal capacity utilization. We also show how external capacity constraints can restrict the ability to reach full capacity output. The analytical framework has productivity change, price change and change in capacity utilization influencing change in return on assets.     

中国能源结构低碳化转型的政策分析

本文构建了中国能源-经济社会核算矩阵,使用SAM账户乘数分析方法探讨可再生能源电力产业在经济结构中的特征,部门扩张对其他经济部门的影响.同时利用SAM价格乘数研究不同的能源价格政策对经济系统的影响,结果表明政府采用对煤炭收取碳税的同时,对可再生能源电力产业进行补贴的价格政策是有效的.可再生能源电力产业的发展对经济结构的优化和能源结构低碳化转型有着积极作用,并能够降低成本推动型通货膨胀的发生风险.     

基于超DEA的皖江九市产业用地效率评价

本文以皖江九市作为研究区,在采用传统DEA评价方法 C2R模型评价2001至2010年10年间皖江九市总体产业用地投入产出效率的基础上,采用超效率DEA评价法对2010年皖江九市各市产业用地投入产出效率进行评价排序。结果表明:2001年至2010年10年间,皖江九市总体上仅2008及2010年两年产业用地投入产出为DEA有效,其余年份均存在产业用地投入冗余、产出不足现象;2010年,产业用地投入产出达到DEA有效的城市有六个,运用超DEA模型排序产业用地投入产出效率,结果从高到低依次为合肥、马鞍山、滁州、芜湖、巢湖及池州。     

福建省物流业与主导产业联动发展路径研究

物流业发展与其他产业密切相关,物流业和主导产业联动发展,有利于主导产业降低成本,提高效率,促进产业升级。根据2007年福建省投入产出表对其物流业和主导产业进行产业关联分析,并依据计算结果提出了促进两者联动发展的建议。     

广东省现代物流业的波及效果分析

通过广东省2000年的6部门投入产出表，计算出各部门的直接前向关联指数和直接后的关联指数，直接消耗系数表，列昂惕夫逆阵，生产诱发系数表，影响力和感应度系数表，最后从各方面分析了广东省物流业与其他产业的关联关系。     

财税政策影响产业升级的理论机制分析——基于地方政府竞争视角

财税政策通过促进关键生产要素流入可促进产业升级。通过构建动态模型分析地方政府财税竞争对要素流动、社会福利及产业升级的影响。研究发现,提高生产要素的税率不仅会导致该生产要素外流,还会导致其他生产要素外流;在税率变化冲击下,要素存量调整至新的均衡状态与生产函数凹性和调整成本函数凸性有关;对发达地区落后产业实行高综合税率以及新兴产业实行低综合税率会促进地区产业升级,对落后地区实行低综合税率会促进地区经济发展和产业升级;政府的财税协调有利于地区间实现产业升级和提高社会福利水平;地区居民对企业的持股份额会影响地区福利水平。     

Industrial structure distortion and urban ecological efficiency from the perspective of green entrepreneurial ecosystems

Improving the entrepreneurial ecosystem plays an important role in the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and achieving the coordinated development of economy and environment among cities is important for improving the quality and efficiency of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. Using the panel data of 286 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2016, this study adopts the global reference super efficiency slack-based measure model considering undesirable output to measure China's urban ecological efficiency. In addition, the spatial lag model is used to investigate the impacts of industrial structure advancement and rationalization on ecological efficiency, and the impacts of the heterogeneity of industrial structure and economic development under the distortion of resource dependence on ecological efficiency. The results show that: every one-unit increase in the advancement of industrial structure will lead to a 0.0741 unit increase in ecological efficiency, but the high dependence on natural resources will inhibit the promoting effect of industrial structure advancement on ecological efficiency, and such an inhibiting effect will weaken with the improvement of economic development level; moreover, the influence coefficient of industrial structure rationalization on ecological efficiency is not significant, nor is it affected by the natural resource dependence and the level of economic development. This paper hereby proposes that in the process of promoting green entrepreneurial activity at present, the Chinese government should give full play to the role of industrial structure advancement on improving ecological efficiency, actively break through the constraints restricting the impact of industrial structure rationalization, reduce excessive dependence on resource industries, improve the level of regional economic development, and strive to transform resource-intensive industries to technology-intensive industries to support the sustainable development of a green entrepreneurship ecosystem.     

Multi-modal,multi-output,multiregional variable input-output model

A multi-modal, multi-output, multiregional variable input-output (MMMVIO) model is introduced to evaluate the economic impact of a transportation system. The MMVIO model differs from the conventional input-output models by being price and cost sensitive. The regional technical coefficients, trade coefficients, modal choice of shipment, input mix and output composition are determined by the price and cost variables, a property not shared by the conventional input-output models.The transportation system reduces shipping cost of delivering commodities between regions, thereby stimulating economy of trading regions. The MMMVIO model captures the development impact incident to the transportation system.     

增值税“扩围”改革对行业税负变动的预期影响

增值税“扩围”改革将影响到各行业的流转税负担.利用投入产出表数据,测算增值税“扩围”改革对目前属于增值税征收范围的行业(即“增值税行业”)和目前属于营业税征收范围行业(即“营业税行业”)流转税税负变动的影响,结果显示:增值税行业的总体税负将有小幅下降,服务中间投入比率是影响各增值税行业减税效应大小的关键因素;各营业税行业的税负变化情况差异较大,商务服务业等大多数行业的税负将减轻,但租赁业等部分行业的税负可能会加重,税改后的增值税税率水平选择与中间投入比率是影响各营业税行业税负变动的主要因素.为了促进行业间税负公平,减少增值税“扩围”改革对行业发展的不利影响,有必要适当降低租赁业、交通运输业的税率水平.     

A further procedure for ordering an input-output matrix: some empirical evidence

In a recent paper Ghosh and Sarkar [5] have developed a model of input-output systems as spatial configurations. Roy has proposed a more efficient solution method; but computation time still increases factorially which rules out its use for large matrices. [15] This note shows that the problem they have formulated belongs to a class of discrete programming problems known as placement or assignment problems. Several natural extensions are briefly discussed. More importantly, an efficient algorithm for the quadratic assignment problem is used to compute the optimal ordering of five comparable input-output matrices (US, Norway, Japan, Italy, India). These preliminary empirical results do show rather stable assignment patterns for the industries; and certain clusters of industries are shown to emerge as hypothesized by Ghosh and Sarkar.The author wishes to thank an anonymous referee for some important clarifying remarks on a preliminary version of this paper.     

灰色定权聚类模型在主导产业选择中的应用——以重庆市工业主导产业选择为例

主导工业产业是带动区域经济和产业发展的强大动力。因此,重庆市调整和优化本地区产业结构,应该合理选择主导工业产业,并予以重点扶持。运用灰色定权聚类模型,结合重庆市产业发展实际情况,对重庆市的24个工业部门进行主导产业分析。选取五个工业主导产业评价指标,把24个工业部门划分为三大类,分别构建对应的白化权函数并对各评价指标赋权重,然后根据重庆市历年统计年鉴和2010年投入产出表数据计算得出主导产业分析的综合评价结果。经过分析,有13个工业部门可以成为重庆市的工业主导产业。最后,总结了运用灰色定权聚类模型进行主导产业分析时应注意的几个方面问题。     

基于DEA模型的我国物流投入产出效率分析

建立物流投入产出评价指标,基于DEA模型,分析2008年全国31个省、市、自治区的物流投入产出效率。研究表明,DEA总体无效的省、市、自治区共有22个,全国物流投入产出平均总体效率、平均纯技术效率、平均纯规模效率分别为0.71,0.79,0.90;说明我国物流效率偏低的主要原因是纯技术效率偏低造成的,物流投入存在严重的浪费现象,物流产出还有相当大的发展空间;需要加快改造和提升现有物流资源,物流效率可以进一步提高。