Energy crises and change of technology

A production model is formulated for the Finnish metal product and machinery industry for studying energy crises-related structural changes. Two models are estimated: a partial static equilibrium model, where capital is treated as a fixed input in the short run, and a dynamic model, where adjustment costs of the capital input are taken into account. Alternative hypotheses of structural change are formulated as gradual parameter shifts. The results show that some of the energy-related parameters have changed over time. Also the contributions of parameter changes and variations in the average values of the variables on the changes in the energy demand elasticities are studied. The most important effect is the strengthening of the energy-saving bias in technical change.     

Sluggish quantity adjustment in a non-clearing market—a disequilibrium econometric application to the loan market

The paper argues that the estimated speed of price adjustment in a disequilibrium econometric model is likely to be biased if allowance is not made for quantity adjustment inertia on both sides of the market. Furthermore, if the model estimated is static rather than dynamic then, in certain circumstances, an excess demand regime may be mistaken for one of excess supply and vice-versa. In an empirical application to the loan market for the clearing banks in Ireland we can claim to have obtained some support for this belief.     

Recent evidence on determinants of per residential customer electricity consumption in the U.S.: 2001-2005

This empirical study seeks to provide empirical evidence identifying key factors that have influenced per residential customer electricity consumption in the U.S. during recent years. This empirical analysis takes the form of P2SLS (panel two-stage least squares) estimations. State-level data are adopted for the five-year period from 2001 through 2005. The P2SLS findings indicate that the annual consumption of electricity per residential customer is an increasing function of the annual number of cooling degree days, real per capita personal disposable income, and the real unit price of natural gas. Annual per residential customer electricity consumption is also found to be a decreasing function of the real unit price of electricity and the extent of usage of natural gas for residential heating, as well as the degree to which each state has pursued energy efficiency policies. Finally, said consumption is also found to be positively a function of a control variable measuring peak summer electricity generating capacity.     

A comparison among partial adjustment,rational expectations and error correction estimates of the canadian demand for money

Starting from a dynamic optimization principle, the currently most popular approaches to modelling money demand functions are derived. The partial adjustment/adaptive expectations, rational expectations, and error correction mechanism formulations are then estimated using a common data set. The error correction mechanism equation is found to dominate the others either because their implicit restrictions are rejected (rational expectations) or by employing the encompassing principle (partial adjustment/adaptive expectations). Surprisingly all three forms have similar long-run solutions. Since the short-run dynamics differ substantially, the results have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.     

Transparency of Retail Energy Pricing: Evidence from the US Natural Gas Industry

We test and cannot reject the hypothesis that retail pricing of natural gas is transparent for commercial and residential customers served by regulated local distribution companies in the United States. The periods of adjustment to a wholesale price change are 1.54 months for the commercial price and 1.69 months for the residential price. These findings support the view that regulated local distribution companies quickly adjust retail prices to fully capture any change in the wholesale natural gas price. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

分位数局部调整模型及应用

本文基于分位数的回归理论与方法,提出了一个新的经济计量模型:分位数局部调整模型,并给出了其数学表示、参数估计与预测方法等一整套建模技术。分位数局部调整模型能够细致地给出响应变量在各个分位点上的条件分位数,便于揭示响应变量位置、散布与形状等动态调整过程的全景信息,从而得到比均值局部调整模型更为深刻的结果。最后,将分位数局部调整模型应用于中国货币需求分析,结果显示,在货币需求的不同阶段,不仅调整速度不同,调整方式也呈现出非对称性;M1存在货币失踪之谜现象,而M2却在条件密度第一个最优区域实现了供求均衡;最优货币需求条件密度曲线较为分散,这为央行制定货币政策预留了足够的空间。     

The dynamic Laurent flexible form and the demand for money

I derive the dynamic full Laurent model to estimate economic models that assume a dynamic process. The application in this paper is to use the dynamic full Laurent to estimate a system of dynamic asset demand equations. The main results are that the dynamic full Laurent rejects its static version and the estimated elasticities are variable over time. Results from a Monte Carlo analysis, using a dynamic data-generating process, show that the prediction errors from the dynamic full Laurent are much smaller than those from the static version. Thus when the data are generated by a dynamic process, inferences from the static full Laurent model can be severely biased. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A two-level electricity demand model : Evaluation of the connecticut time-of-day pricing test

A two-stage budgeting model is developed for electricity demand where comsumption in each period is treated as a different commodity. A relative household demand model is first estimated, a consistent price index for electricity is constructed, and then a total electricity consumption model is estimated. Economic procedures are derived which permit application of the model to both time-of-day price situations and also declining vlock price situatiions which result in non-linear budget sets. The model is applied to both types of situations- the data from the Connecticut time-of-day pricing test as well as data from the declining block rate situation of the prevoius year. The model is also tested in a forecasting application to time-of-day customers.     

On estimating the effects of peak demand pricing

Extreme value distributions are seldom used in economics, despite what seems to be a natural application to peak demand pricing. This paper estimates the effect of an individual peak demand charge which is a component of the standard industrial electricity rate structure. The extreme value distribution is used in forming the likelihood function of individual peak demand which is then estimated on a sample of five Ontario cement firms from 1970–1977. Goodness-of-fit tests tend to support the use of the extreme value distribution.     

Habits,Complementarities and Heterogeneity in Alcohol and Tobacco Demand: A Multivariate Dynamic Model*

In this paper we test the existence of forward‐looking behaviour in a multivariate model for alcohol and tobacco consumption. The theoretical framework, based on a dynamic adjustment cost model with forward‐looking behaviour, is enhanced to include the intertemporal interactions between the two goods. The analysis of the within‐period preferences completes the intertemporal model, allowing to evaluate the static substitutability/complementarity relationships. The empirical strategy consists in a two‐step estimation procedure. In a first stage, we obtain the parameters of the demand system, while in a second stage Euler equations are estimated. Results, based on a cohort data set constructed from a series of cross‐sections of the Italian Household Budget Survey, reveal a significant complementarity relationship between alcohol and tobacco. Estimation of the Euler equations does not lead to rejection of the hypothesis of intertemporal dependence, providing evidence for a forward‐looking behaviour in alcohol and tobacco consumption. Moreover, we find significant intertemporal interactions that support the adjustment cost setting in a multivariate model with rational expectations.     

纯分时定价与分时阶梯定价对政策目标实现的对比分析

基于双层需求模型,对分时阶梯定价与纯分时定价下的居民电力需求行为进行比较。利用相对需求方程检验两类定价下的相对需求是否具有非位似偏好性质,运用绝对需求方程分析居民在峰谷时的不同弹性特征。研究结论表明,分时阶梯与纯分时定价下存在不同的收入和电费位似偏好性质;居民的价格与需求弹性显著不同;两类定价下可以实现的政策目标也存在明显差异。本文为系统比较非线性定价与线性定价下的需求奠定了基础。     

异质性能源消费与经济增长的非线性动态驱动机制

研究目标：测度改革开放近40年来,中国异质性能源消费与经济增长的非线性动态驱动机制。研究方法：基于煤炭、石油、天然气、电力消费以及GDP年度数据,运用马尔科夫区制转移因果(MSC) 模型开展实证研究。研究发现：经济增长能够促进煤炭、石油、天然气和电力等异质性能源消费的提高,其中,石油和天然气消费的增加能够推动经济增长。经济增长对煤炭和石油消费的驱动作用持续期较长,对天然气和电力消费的驱动作用持续期较短,四种能源消费对经济增长驱动作用的时间长度大致相同。近年来,石油消费能够表现出对经济增长的非线性动态驱动作用,经济增长能够对石油和煤炭消费发挥非线性动态驱动作用。在金融危机时期,难以表现出经济增长对能源消费的单向时变因果影响,其中,煤炭、石油和天然气消费无法表现出对经济增长的单向时变因果影响,而电力消费对经济增长存在单向时变因果影响。研究创新：基于MSC模型,判断不同时段内异质性能源消费与经济增长的时变因果关系,进而揭示两者之间的非线性动态驱动机制。研究价值：为中国完成能源产业结构转型以及构建新时代能源产业体系提供经验证据。     

Demand and supply estimation biases due to omission of durability

We build a dynamic equilibrium model of a durable goods oligopoly with a competitive secondary market to evaluate the bias in estimating the structural parameters of demand and supply when durability is omitted. We simulate data from our dynamic model and use them to estimate the model’s static counterpart. We find that the static estimate of the elasticity of demand is an overestimate of the true elasticity and that the static estimate of the markup is an underestimate. Our results provide a benchmark on the magnitude and sign of the bias when static models are used for economic inference.     

方法、数据与全要素生产率测算差异

研究目标：检验不同方法之间TFP测算结果的“一致性”和“稳健性”,探讨测算方法和数据选取问题。研究方法：以中国2004~2012年总量分行业面板数据为例,从多个角度比较TFP测算结果,以及通过统计检验选取适用测算方法。研究发现：第一,研究的问题不同,测算方法之间“一致性”的检验结论不同;第二,在选择测算方法时,进行相关统计量检验是必要的,这有助于鉴别模型设定是否合理,缩小可选模型范围;第三,测算方法的选择,要符合数据本身的特征,基于宏观分行业面板数据,DEA是更为适用的TFP测算方法,而劳动力投入应选取全社会从业人员指标。研究创新：多种测算方法和统计检验的应用。研究价值：本文尝试构建如何选择TFP测算方法的一般框架。     

Dynamics of urban residential growth

This paper develops a dynamic model of the urban residential market. Under specific assumptions about market behavior on both the supply and the demand sides it is shown that cities grow by attaining a sequence of short run equilibria. A set of recursive equations is derived and through these the impact of growth on the structure of rents, densities, and consumer welfare is analyzed. The dynamic model explains the decay of the central locations in large old American cities. Housing obsolescence and abandonment arises under special conditions and is reflected in positively sloped rent gradients in central locations. The well-known static result of declining densities with distance from the center is shown to occur only under special conditions such as rising income levels. Directions for further analyzing urban growth, by expanding this dynamic approach, are pointed out.     

Bayesian estimation of labor demand by age: theoretical consistency and an application to an input–output model

Extended input–output models require careful estimation of disaggregated consumption by households and comparable sources of labor income by sector. The latter components most often have to be estimated. The primary focus of this paper is to produce labor demand disaggregated by workers’ age. The results are evaluated through considerations of its consistency with a static labor demand model restricted with theoretical requirements. A Bayesian approach is used for more straightforward imposition of regularity conditions. The Bayesian model confirms elastic labor demand for youth workers, which is consistent with what past studies find. Additionally, to explore the effects of changes in age structure on a regional economy, the estimated age-group-specific labor demand model is integrated into a regional input–output model. The integrated model suggests that ceteris paribus ageing population contributes to lowering aggregate economic multipliers due to the rapidly growing number of elderly workers who earn less than younger workers.     

Residential choice,hedonic prices,and the demand for urban air quality

This paper uses a two-step estimation procedure suggested by Sherwin Rosen to estimate structural demand and supply equations for urban air quality. In the first step, a hedonic price equation is estimated for residential property values for the Washington, D. C., SMSA for 1970. In the second step, a set of marginal hedonic prices is generated. These prices and the quantity of clean air (reciprocal of air pollution) are used as endogenous variables in a simultaneous equation model. Empirical results indicate a price elasticity of demand between ?1.2 and ?1.4 and a unitary income elasticity.     

DEMAND,CUSTOMER BASE‐LINE AND DEMAND RESPONSE IN THE ELECTRICITY MARKET: A SURVEY

The increasing use of demand‐side management, as a tool to reliably meet electricity demands at peak time, has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organiza‐tions, managers, regulators and policymakers. This research reviews the growing literature on models which are used to study demand, customer base‐line (CBL) and demand response in the electricity market. After characterizing the general demand models, the CBL, based on which the demand response models are studied, is reviewed. Given the experience gained from the review and existing conditions, the study combines an appropriate model for each case for a possible application to the electricity market; moreover, it discusses the implications of the results. In the literature, these aspects are studied independently. The main contribution of this survey is attributed to the treatment of the three issues as sequentially interdependent. The review is expected to enhance the understanding of the demand, CBL and demand response in the electricity market and their relationships. The objective is conducted through a combination of demand and supply side managements in order to reduce demand through different demand response programs during peak times. This enables electricity suppliers to save costly electricity generation and at the same time reduce energy vulnerability.     

Dynamic stochastic analysis of the farm subsidy-efficiency link: evidence from France

The existing literature on the subsidy-efficiency nexus is almost exclusively based on static modelling and thus ignores the inter-temporal nature of production decisions. The present paper contributes to this literature by developing a dynamic stochastic frontier model, which is then estimated using a sample of French farms over the period 1992–2011. For comparison purposes, the static counterpart of the dynamic model is also estimated. The results indicate that, in the dynamic case as well as in the static one, public subsidies are negatively associated with farm technical efficiency. Nevertheless, these linkages are found to be weak, and they are much weaker when dynamic aspects are taken into account.     

Determinants of price mark‐up tolerance for green electricity – lessons for environmental marketing strategies from a study of residential electricity customers in Germany

This paper develops hypotheses on the effects of various attitudinal and perceptual variables as well as socio‐demographic characteristics of residential electricity customers on an individual's willingness to pay a mark‐up for electricity generated from renewable energy sources compared with the price due for electricity from conventional sources. The hypotheses are tested with data from a standardized telephone survey of 238 household electricity consumers in Germany. 53.4% of the participants are willing to pay a mark‐up for green electricity. 26.1% report a price tolerance equal to a 5–10% increase in their current electricity bill. Binary logistic and ordinal regression analyses indicate that price tolerance for green electricity is particularly influenced by attitudes (1) towards environmental issues and (2) towards one's current power supplier, (3) perceptions of the evaluation of green energy by an individual's social reference groups, (4) household size and (5) current electricity bill level. The findings are used to derive suggestions for energy related informational activities of public institutions, green marketing strategies of energy companies and future consumer research regarding demand for pro‐environmental goods. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.