Entry and price dynamics in a perfect foresight model

This paper studies firms' entry and price dynamics in a model that combines the assumptions of free entry and perfect foresight with the hypothesis of consumer's loyalty postulated by Phelps and Winter. The analysis of the transition to long-run equilibrium reveals that, in such a model, the entry of firms is related to the difference between current prices and costs. In relation to the growth of the firms' output, it is shown that the model is consistent with Gibrat's Law. Finally, it is shown that the size distribution of firms approaches asymptotically a Pareto distribution.     

区位基尼系数的计算、性质及其应用

基于产业规模探索区位基尼系数的简化计算、区域分解和两位数产业分解,给出产业份额、区位商以及产业份额空间测度加权区位基尼系数的分解公式,提供相对边际效应和增量分解的计算公式。利用我国2004年、2008年的经济普查数据,计算国民经济19个字母产业的区位基尼系数,得出以产业份额计算的区位基尼系数更能反映产业聚集程度的结论,并使用产业份额区位基尼系数进行实证分析。     

On the exclusion theorem'

This paper examines the locational decision of the firm in a linear space economy under increasing returns to scale and imperfect competition. All intermediate locations are excluded by the firm from its possible location without being adversely affected. This is a stronger result than Sakashita's and Mathur's which require non-increasing returns to scale and perfectness in input markets. In this sense, our paper leads to a more general version of the Exclusion Theorem.     

Explicit characterizations of financial prices with history-dependent utility

The present paper demonstrates how explicit representations of financial prices and returns can be derived in economies with history-dependent utility. While the techniques are applicable to a wide range of economies, they are applied to a representative consumer economy where (i) the consumer’s preferences exhibit habit formation, and (ii) purchases of the consumption good also gives rise to a flow of services. Solutions are computed for the case of multiplicative or nonlinear habit formation, and additive service flows. Other applications are also indicated.     

基于CGE模型天然气价格波动的传导效应

天然气在我国能源结构中有着重要的地位,天然气价格的变化会对我国经济和下游产业链产生重要的影响。论文利用CGE模型研究了我国天然气价格波动对我国宏观经济、居民福利和微观产业部门的影响,对不同的天然气价格冲击进行了情景模拟分析,研究表明:天然气价格波动对宏观经济变量和21个产业有很大的影响;在相同的价格波动下对不同产业的影响是不同的,与天然气产业关联度越大,其影响也就越大。在此基础上,对我国宏观经济政策和天然气价格改革提出了一些建议。     

Industrial location and rising energy prices: A case of bilateral monopoly

The purpose of this paper is to extend Sakashita's analysis to a case of bilateral monopoly and to examine the possibility of intermediate location for two industries as well as the impact of rising energy prices on the patterns of industrial location. It will be shown that the results derived in this paper are quite different from the ones obtained by Sakashita (1980).     

Increase of electricity price and energy efficiency: analysis using the macroeconomic interindustry model of Taiwan

From 2012 to 2013, the price of electricity in Taiwan increased by 19.78%. This large increase forced producers to invest in improving electricity efficiency. In this paper, the macroeconomic interindustry model of Taiwan (MEIT) is developed to study the economic effects of high electricity prices and consequential improvement in energy efficiency. MEIT describes the structure of 47 industries, from both real and price-income approaches. To resolve inconsistent data, RAS is employed. A technical model is also integrated to consider technical feasibility, which offsets the usual shortcomings of technological analysis in an economic model. The iron and steel industry is taken as a case study. Estimated results indicate that higher electricity prices negatively affect Taiwan’s economy. However, improving energy efficiency can reduce some of this effect.     

Differencing of random walks and near random walks

The traditional rationale for differencing time series data is to attain stationarity. For a nearly non-stationary first-order autoregressive process—AR (1) with positive slope parameter near unity—we were led to a complementary rationale. If one suspects near non-stationarity of the AR (1) process, if the sample size is ‘small’ or ‘moderate’, and if good one-step-ahead prediction performance is the goal, then it is wise to difference the data and treat the differences as observations on a stationary AR (1) process. Estimation by Ordinary Least Squares then appears to be at least as satisfactory as nonlinear least squares. Use of differencing for an already stationary process can be motivated by Bayesian concepts: differencing can be viewed as an easy way to incorporate non-diffuse prior judgement—that the process is nearly non-stationary—into one's analysis. Random walks and near random walks are often encountered in economics. Unless one's sample size is large, the same statistical analyses apply to either.     

中国主导产业演变及其原因研究:基于DPG方法

本文主要基于比例增长偏离方法,利用可比价格投入产出表详细分析了1992～2005年中国主导产业的演变情况及其原因。结果发现,1992～2005年经济发展主要从农业部门转向了工业部门,最重要的主导产业的演变特征是从重化工业向机械电子类产业转变,但不同阶段的次级主导产业也有所不同。出口、固定资产投资和技术已成为主导产业发展与演变的主要推动力量。今后需要进一步加强技术结构以及国内消费对主导产业发展的作用,并加快发展服务业,促进主导产业以及产业结构的优化发展。     

The combined equilibrium of travel networks and residential location markets

The combined ‘user’ equilibrium of travel networks and residential location markets is shown to exist and to be unique in the expected allocation of households to residential locations and to the routes and links of the network, in the vacancies and rents of residential locations and in the congested travel time and cost of each network link. The formulation combines a multinomial logit model of households' location and route choices derived from utility maximization, a binary logit model of house owners' offer decisions derived from profit maximization and the standard model of network congestion. A travel disutility measure (consistent with utility maximization) replaces the standard ‘generalized cost function’. The proof utilizes a non-linear programming formulation which reproduces the simultaneous equilibrium conditions of the behavioral formulation. The stability of the unique equilibrium position is briefly discussed, a computational algorithm is proposed and hints for generalized formulations are provided.     

Continuous economies with a finite set of equilibria

This paper extends the results of G. Debreu's ‘Economies with a Finite Set of Equilibria’, within the context of the finite dimensional space of economies used therein, to the case where demand functions are assumed only to be continuous and to satisfy a certain technical condition. This condition, involving the concept of approximate limit, does not even require that the function be anywhere differentiable. Our main result is that the complement of the set of economies with a finite set of equilibrium prices has Lebesgue measure zero, although it need not be closed and in fact, may very well be dense.     

International pharmaceutical supply prices: Definitions — problems — policy implications

In cases where the buyer and the seller of goods and services are companies belonging to the same group the prices charged for goods and services are called ‘international delivery prices’ or ‘international transfer prices’. The peculiarities of research-based companies are such that attempts to ascertain in practice what constitutes an ‘appropriate’ international delivery price are beset by a number of problems. Any scheme that is devised to solve the problems of international transfer prices should feature general ‘rules’ on how the various countries ought to share in central costs. As international transfer prices are a prerequisite for an efficient world economy based on the division of labour an agreement should be reached on the design and content of suitable delivery price systems for a research-intensive industry.     

Asymmetric determinants of corporate bond credit spreads in China: Evidence from a nonlinear ARDL model

This study utilizes the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model proposed by Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014) to quantify the potentially asymmetric transmission of positive and negative changes in each of the possible determinants of industry-level corporate bond credit spreads in China. The determinants we consider include the corresponding industry stock price, China’s stock market volatility, the level and slope of the yield curve (i.e., the interest rate), the industrial production growth rate, and the inflation rate. The empirical results suggest substantial asymmetric effects of these determinants on credit spreads, with the positive changes in the determinants showing larger impacts than the negative changes for most industries we consider. Moreover, the corresponding industry stock prices, the interest rate, and the industrial production growth rate negatively drive the industry credit spreads for many industries. In turn, China’s stock market volatility and the inflation rate positively affect the credit spreads at each industry level. These findings may be helpful to investors, bond issuers and policymakers in understanding the dynamics of credit risks and corporate bond rates at the industry level.     

Towards measuring allocative efficiency in selected industries of India

This paper examines trends in allocative efficiency over the period 1960–1961 to 1986–1987 in seven Indian industries, namely refining and manufacture of sugar; petroleum refining; manufacture of chemicals, fertilizers and pesticides locomotives and parts, locomotives, and cotton textiles. We discover that allocative inefficiency has been non zero in each industry for every year. Allocative inefficiency has not declined over time in those industries where prices are administered, whereas in industries where prices are not administered it has. Industries that are predominantly in the public sector are not necessarily characterized by greater allocative inefficiency than those that are predominantly in the private sector.     

Spatial distribution of economic activities: a network approach

The aim of this paper is to analyse co-location patterns of manufactures and service industries at a microgeographic level using Spanish data from the Mercantile Register. Our approach allows us to analyse joint-location and co-location patterns of firms in different industries, and to overcome previous technical constraints in this type of analyses, partially thanks to using homogeneous cells instead of administrative units. This paper contributes to the empirical literature on industry location by developing a multisectorial co-location index computed by comparing differences between observed data about firms’ location and randomly generated data. Multisectorial relationships are analyzed by transposing bilateral relations onto an n-dimensional space. Our results show that dispersed industries tend to locate jointly and that industries with lower joint-location patterns have spatial structures similar to those obtained through input–output relationships, suggesting weak role of co-location patterns as interindustry linkages are not the main location determinants.

     

Pareto optimality in continuous-time OLG economies

The aim of this paper is the achievement of a complete characterization of the Pareto optimality of competitive equilibria for deterministic, pure exchange, continuous-time economies with a countable number of overlapping generations, where each consumer’s life-span consists in a bounded interval of time. For such an environment, we obtain separate sufficient and necessary conditions for Pareto optimality in the form of the Cass’ criterion, that is, in terms of the equilibrium prices. However, these conditions are not equivalent in general. Therefore, in order to get that equivalence we are compelled to impose certain restrictions, either on consumers’ lifetimes, assuming that all of them have the same longevity, or on the dynamic behaviour of relative intertemporal equilibrium prices. In both cases, we are able to derive a single condition that is sufficient and necessary for efficiency, thus achieving full characterizations.     

A way of modelling investment in a multisectoral model

The paper contains an example of how to introduce heterogeneity of capital in the model framework given by Leif Johansen's so called MSG-model. Heterogeneity of capital is in terms of differences among sectors and differences among ‘vintages’ or ‘techniques’ within each sector.     

A TEST OF PERFORMANCE SIMILARITY AMONG STRATEGIC GROUP MEMBERS IN CONFORMING AND NON-CONFORMING INDUSTRY STRUCTURES

Empirical tests have produced mixed support for a membership-performance link in strategic groups, perhaps due to incomplete treatment of industry forces. We argue that strategic group concept is more useful for explaining performance differences among firms in some industries (where conditions favour conformity in firm conduct) than others. Using three industry structure constructs as criteria, 47 four-digit SIC industries are classified into ‘conforming’ or ‘non-conforming’ industry samples. Firms are then clustered into strategic groups in a separate treatment for each sample. Performance differences among groups are tested under conforming and non-conforming industry conditions. Tests confirm membership effects on ROA and ROE are significantly stronger in ‘conforming’ industries, where stronger regression relationships between conduct variables and performance also obtain.     

Investment and pricing strategies of competing firms: A computational approach

We analyze the classical investment and pricing problem of a dominant firm faced with competition from substitute industries or marginal firms in the same field. The firm owns a finite level of a resource (e.g. the stock of an exhaustible one), the consumption of which is to be divided optimally over a finite planning horizon. The competitors' measures affect the demand for the resource towards the dominating firm. Rising crude oil prices and investments in forms of alternative energy are representative examples of the strategic questions which involve competitive and contradictory interests among firms within an industry. The investment and pricing problem can be solved analytically only with strong, simplifying assumptions. To make the analysis simpler and to relax these restrictions, we combine a series of numerical tools, computerize them, and build up a user-oriented, computerized decision aid, which we call a ‘computerized approach’. We solve the problem under different sets of theoretical assumptions. This chosen incremental theory building allows us to study the theoretical sensitivity of the original problem.     

LOCATION OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRIES AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT – THE ISRAELI CASE

This paper reviews and empirically examines the effectiveness of the Israeli government's declared policy to induce the location of high technology industries in developing regions. The first section of the paper reviews the literature on high technology industry location. The second section presents the findings from the analyses of a sample of 53 high technology Israeli firms in regard to their critical locational determinants. The findings corroborate the results reported in other similar studies. High technology industries, primarily those engaged in research and development, appear to favor the large urban concentrations, where agglomeration economies, large pools of skilled workers and high quality educational and cultural facilities exist. High technology firms which choose to locate in peripheral regions engage primarily in production activities and employ larger proportions of unskilled and semi-skilled labor. The average size of these firms is greater than their counterparts, firms located in and around urban concentrations.