The role of prior information in updating regional input-output models

The research reported here focuses on several issues: (1) the specification and measurement of errors in single region input-output models and their impacts on the construction of new models from survey and nonsurvey sources and the updating of existing models; (2) the problems of errors in input-output models when the latter are incorporated into more extensive social accounting systems and (3) linkages between the aggregation issue, error analysis and micro-to-macro modelling within an input-output framework. Empirical analysis is conducted on many of these issues by reference to the State of Washington input-output models for 1963, 1967 and 1972.     

On reconciling purchases and sales estimates of a regional input-output table

This paper develops two alternative methods for reconciling purchases and sales estimates of a regional input-output table. The present procedures are extentions of the well known Jensen-McGaurr (J-M) procedures. It is claimed that the proposed techniques would reduce to a great extent the subjective elements in the J-M procedure and thus lower the time costs to the researcher. The present methods have been applied to the data for the Central Queensland Economy and comparisons made between the results coming out of the present procedures and the J-M procedure. In particular, it has been found that the present procedures, though less subjective in nature, produce estimates that are as reliable as the J-M estimates.     

A regional forecasting model for construction activity

This paper presents a new, comprehensive and detailed model of construction activity. The model is intended primarily for forecasting applications. The model generates forecasts of new construction starts for each of the 50 states of the United States. Forecasts are made for 29 types of structures. The paper presents evidence that the structure of the determinants of construction activity varies across regions within the United States. Thus, prior models of construction, based only on national time-series data, may be subject to aggregation bias. Evaluation of the model's forecasts indicates that the model outperforms simpler forecasting methods.     

地区主网规划的负荷预测方法研究

随着经济的快速发展和人民生活水平的不断提高,社会用电需求量不断增加,据统计,我国目前的用电负荷每年以10%左右的幅度增长。用电负荷持续增长主要是由于人口增加、企业发展、产业增多、工业生产等多方面因素所致,这对电力主网的运行造成了巨大的压力。为了避免主网在超负荷状态下运行,维持社会电力系统的稳定、安全、可靠运行,做好主网规划工作是必不可少的。针对这一点,文章主要阐述了主网规划中负荷预测方法的运用。     

Technological change and input-output analysis: An appraisal

There is an extensive literature on technological change (TC) pertaining to input-output (I-O) analysis, that offers the potential to significantly extend the range of applications of this valuable tool. This paper classifies and analyzes the major types of TC. It summarizes some established methods for estimating TC, expands on methods not well developed, and shows how some methods not typically identified with I-O are useful. In addition, the methods are critically evaluated and their appropriateness to various subcategories of TC assessed.Two major conclusions are drawn. First, that input-output does not deserve much of the criticism it receives for being a rigid tool of analysis, insensitive to price changes, policy regulations and innovation. Second, given the availability of numerous approaches to incorporating TC into I-O models, researchers no longer have a legitimate excuse for assuming away TC or using crude modification methods.     

Adaptive learning forecasting,with applications in forecasting agricultural prices

We introduce a new forecasting methodology, referred to as adaptive learning forecasting, that allows for both forecast averaging and forecast error learning. We analyze its theoretical properties and demonstrate that it provides a priori MSE improvements under certain conditions. The learning rate based on past forecast errors is shown to be non-linear. This methodology is of wide applicability and can provide MSE improvements even for the simplest benchmark models. We illustrate the method’s application using data on agricultural prices for several agricultural products, as well as on real GDP growth for several of the corresponding countries. The time series of agricultural prices are short and show an irregular cyclicality that can be linked to economic performance and productivity, and we consider a variety of forecasting models, both univariate and bivariate, that are linked to output and productivity. Our results support both the efficacy of the new method and the forecastability of agricultural prices.     

Comparative stability analysis of demand-side and supply-side input-output models

This paper presents the results of a comparison of technical coefficient stability in demand-side and supply-side input-output models using a seven-sector aggregation of the 1947, 1958, 1963, 1967, 1972, and 1977 U.S. input-output tables. Sectoral and total output forecasts of the two models, generated with known final demand and value added figures from all subsequent tables, are compared to known output figures. Although the demand-side model performs somewhat better in terms of total output forecasts, the supply-side model provides better forecasts for a larger number of sectors. This analysis suggests that both models should be used in order to determine the extent to which an economy or a sector are demand- or supply-driven.     

Fast and frugal forecasting

Simple statistical forecasting rules, which are usually simplifications of classical models, have been shown to make better predictions than more complex rules, especially when the future values of a criterion are highly uncertain. In this article, we provide evidence that some of the fast and frugal heuristics that people use intuitively are able to make forecasts that are as good as or better than those of knowledge-intensive procedures. We draw from research on the adaptive toolbox and ecological rationality to demonstrate the power of using intuitive heuristics for forecasting in various domains including sport, business, and crime.     

Long-term forecasting and evaluation

Looking ahead thirty years is a difficult task, but is not impossible. In this paper we illustrate how to evaluate such long-term forecasts. Long-term forecasting is likely to be dominated by trend curves, particularly the simple linear and exponential trends. However, there will certainly be breaks in their parameter values at some unknown points, so that eventually the forecasts will be unsatisfactory. We investigate whether or not simple methods of long-run forecasting can ever be successful, after one takes into account the uncertainty level associated with the forecasts.     

Regional environmental and economic impact evaluation: An input-output approach

This article develops a regional input-output model which deals with both the environmental sector and the traditional treatment of the economy. The model differs from previous work in that environmental interactions are treated non-linearly and explicit account is taken of environmental feedback to the economic sector. Estimation of non-linear environmental feedback makes it possible to more accurately assess the sensitivity of the regional economic-environmental structure to shifts in final demand over time.     

Distinguishing China's processing trade in the world input-output table and quantifying its effects

ABSTRACT

Distinguishing processing trade is crucial to national input-output table-based research on China's international trade. This paper further investigates the importance of distinguishing China's processing trade in multicountry input-output table-based studies. We focus on the bias in China's bilateral trade in value added caused by China's undistinguished processing trade. We construct a product-by-product world input-output table capturing China's processing trade based on the World Input-Output Database. Empirical studies show that, if China's processing trade is undistinguished, the profile of China's bilateral trade in value added would be seriously distorted; China's bilateral net trade in value added with some economies, such as Japan, Korea and Taiwan, would be significantly underestimated, while it would be significantly overestimated for some other economies, such as the United States. Distinguishing processing trade in multicountry input-output tables is also crucial when China's bilateral trade in value added is considered.     

Rents,resources, and multiple technologies; Ricardian mechanisms in input-output modelling

ABSTRACT

To allow for ‘multiple technologies’ to produce a homogeneous output in input–output models, Duchin and Levine [(2011) Sectors may use Multiple Technologies Simultaneously: The Rectangular Choice-of-technology Model with Binding Factor Constraints, Economic Systems Research, 23(3), 281–302] propose an optimization model constrained by primary resources. We show that the Duchin–Levine model contains two different mechanisms by which multiple technologies can arise. If a factor in short supply is shared by the original and the newly entering technology, the output of the original, lower-cost technology will be reduced to make room for the higher-cost technology which is less intensive in that factor. In contrast, if the factor in short supply is technology-specific, a higher-cost technology supplements the original lowest-cost one, which stays fully active. Either mechanism implies a mechanism-specific set of prices, quantities and rents. We relate these results to classical views on comparative advantage, fixed output levels and the origin of rents.     

A family of square and rectangular interregional input-output tables and models

This paper formulates a large family of different square and rectangular (inter)regional input-output accounting frameworks. Most of the members of this family prove to have a consistent square or rectangular (inter)regional input-output model. Besides some disadvantages, the rectangular members prove to have important advantages over the square members of the family. Hence, it is concluded that the traditional dominance of the square format is unjustified. Moreover, the existence of a whole family implies that an explicit consideration of the choice of accounting framework is necessary. It is argued that, in making this choice, one should strive for an optimal and consistent mix between the assumptions made in the table construction phase and those made when building the corresponding model.     

Inappropriate industries and inefficient resource-use in bangladesh: Some evidence from input-output analysis

A 47-sector input-output table was used to consider the appropriateness of Bangladeshi industries given their labour-capital requirements and relative availability of labour and capital in the economy. We examined the efficiency of industries in terms of needed production to satisfy final demand given relative factor intensities. The findings suggest that agricultural industries are most appropriate to Bangladesh. A case, in terms of attaining the highest returns on capital, can be made for directing capital to agricultural and agroindustries as well as for avoiding (subject to qualifications) construction and energy industries. It seems that a number of urban located industries with inappropriate factor proportions have been developed. There is a case on productivity grounds for expanding Bangladeshi investment in industries based on living resources.     

Changes in the distribution of house prices over time: Structural characteristics,neighborhood, or coefficients?

Quantile hedonic house price function estimates imply that appreciation rates were higher between 1995 and 2005 for high-priced homes in Chicago. Decompositions of temporal changes in the house price distribution suggest that the types of homes sold and their location do not account for the change in the price distribution. Rather, higher appreciation rates for high-priced homes are explained by differences in the quantile regression coefficients over time.