Perceptions and attitudes following a terrorist shock: Evidence from the UK

Transnational terrorism in Western countries has raised questions about security measures that constrain civil liberties. This is the first paper that uses a terrorist attack, that in the London 7/7/2005, as an exogenous source of variation to study the dynamics of risk perception and the effect on the readiness to trade off civil liberties for enhanced security. In this framework we show that willingness to trade off security for liberties is dramatically affected by changes in individual risk assessments due to a terrorist attack. We document the extent of persistence of changed attitudes.     

POLITICAL AFFILIATION AND PERCEPTIONS OF TRADE: EXAMINING SURVEY DATA FROM THE STATE OF GEORGIA

We examine the influences of political party affiliation and self-identification as politically conservative, centrist, or liberal on individuals' trade preferences. Majority support for trade is reported for all political classifications, with Republicans found to be 13.7%–15.1% more likely than Democrats and independents to support trade. Similarly, conservatives are 14.8%–21% more likely to support trade than are centrists and liberals; however, distinctions exist between "very conservative" and "somewhat conservative" cohorts. ( JEL F13)     

Are conservatives overconfident?

Recent studies suggest psychological differences between conservatives and liberals, including that conservatives are more overconfident. We use a behavioral political economy model to show that while this is undoubtedly true for election years in the current era, there is no reason to believe that conservative ideologies are intrinsically linked to overconfidence. Indeed, it appears that in 1980 and before, conservatives and liberals were equally overconfident.     

Foreign direct investment and civil liberties: A new perspective

The conjecture that democracy discourages foreign direct investment (FDI) has been widely refuted in empirical studies. However, we find support of this view. We distinguish between civil and political liberties and propose that multinational firms tend to invest in countries with low civil but with high political liberties. We show that the negative relationship between civil liberties and FDI is hump-shaped. A threshold level of civil liberties exists, below which repression of civil liberties is associated with more FDI. The results are explained by different economic motives for FDI in different groups of countries.     

Estimating the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models

We propose a simple method to identify the effects of unilateral and non‐discriminatory trade policies on bilateral trade within a theoretically consistent empirical gravity model. Specifically, we argue that structural gravity estimations should be performed with data that include not only international trade flows but also intra‐national trade flows. The use of intra‐national sales allows identification of the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies such as most favoured nation tariffs, even in the presence of exporter and importer fixed effects. A byproduct of our approach is that it can be used to recover estimates of the trade elasticity, a key parameter for quantitative trade models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our techniques in the case of most favoured nation tariffs and “time to export” as representative non‐discriminatory determinants of trade on the importer and on the exporter side, respectively. Our methods can be extended to quantify the impact on trade of any country‐specific characteristics as well as any non‐trade policies.     

Defining governance matters: A factor analytic assessment of governance institutions

This paper produces a new set of governance indices that enable estimation of the marginal economic benefits of particular categories of governance. The indices are constructed using a factor model, estimated on forty perceptions-based governance variables from eleven data sources. In contrast to previous research, a unified statistical framework is used to determine the number of governance indices to create, the conceptual content of each index, and the relative importance each has in accounting for the observable data. The four indices are labeled market infrastructure, downside governance risk, order, and civil liberties. Confidence intervals are calculated for each country, for each index to aid in the comparison of scores. As an application, the indices are used as explanatory variables in cross-country income regressions. Instrumental variables estimates show that market infrastructure and civil liberties both exert statistically and economically significant effects on per capita income, controlling for geography (malaria risk) and international trade.     

A sensitivity analysis of the impact of democracy on economic growth

Often it is maintained that democracy is a luxury which comes at a price in terms of subsequent slower increases in national living standards. However, various recent cross-section studies on economic growth have found evidence that lack of civil and political liberties is negatively correlated with economic growth. Using various measures of democracy the robustness of previous research is examined. Both direct and indirect effects of lack of civil and political liberties are analysed. Our main conclusion is that the relationship between democracy and economic growth is not robust.     

Border tax adjustments and tariff‐tax reforms with consumption pollution

We develop a model of a small open economy, where pollution per unit of consumption between domestically produced and imported quantities of the same good differs. We show that the first‐best policy combination calls for consumption taxes on all polluting goods, and border tax adjustment (BTA) measures, that is, tariffs or import subsidies. We identify conditions under which well‐known tariff‐tax reform policies for developing economies, such as a consumer‐price‐neutral piecemeal reform of trade and a consumption tax, and a consumer‐price‐neutral reform of all trade and consumption taxes improve welfare. We also evaluate whether reforms of trade taxes alone are superior to consumer‐price‐neutral reforms of trade and consumption taxes.     

UNION ORGANIZING AND THE REAGAN NLRB

President Reagan's appointees to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) have issued many controversial decisions. This has caused a debate between liberals viewing the Reagan NLRB as anti-union and conservatives viewing the recent NLRB decisions as a return to proven and appropriate policies. This paper investigates Reagan NLRB decisions over the years 1982-1986 so as to shed some light on the facts underlying the debate. The analysis reveals that the Reagan NLRB decisions have been either favorable to employers or unfavorable to unions. The NLRB's decisions undoubtedly contribute to the organizing difficulties faced by unions.     

NUCLEAR TERRORISM: REACTOR SABOTAGE AND WEAPONS PROLIFERATION RISKS

Nuclear power plants and research reactors are vulnerable to acts of terrorism that could render safety systems inoperable and result in catastrophic releases of radioactivity. In addition, expanding civil commerce in weapon-usable forms of plutonium and uranium and deploying tactical nuclear weapons in areas where terrorists are active increase the risk of terrorists' building or stealing nuclear weapons or, even more likely, carrying out a credible hoax.
The United States and other advanced industrialized nations should be concerned about nuclear terrorism, the threat of which now is perceived as low. However, if terrorist groups become more determined, violent, and technologically advanced, as some experts anticipate, then the possibility of nuclear terrorism will likely increase with little warning. Nuclear terrorism, regardless of where it occurs, could have far-reaching consequences for economic stability and world peace. Western Europe is a region of continuing concern due to its high level of "nuclearization" – that is, civil and military nuclear development – and the presence of sophisticated terrorist organizations operating across national boundaries.
This paper reviews potential dangers and available remedies based on the report of the International Task Force on Prevention of Nuclear Terrorism, on policy and technical studies prepared for the Task Force, and on follow-up research conducted by the Nuclear Control Institute, the Task Force's sponsoring organization.     

Political freedom and the response to economic incentives: labor migration in Africa, 1972-1987

This study examines the thesis that political institutions and the freedoms and civil rights generated by these institutions affect migration decisions. The hypothesis is based on one stated by Adam Smith in 1776, that economic conditions that reflect greater political freedoms and civil liberties harbor higher levels of resource mobility in response to economic incentives. Pooled cross-sectional and time-series analysis is based on data from the World Bank for 32 African countries during 1972-87. Findings support the hypothesis that migration rate is more affected by the expected returns ratio to labor in countries where civil liberties are greater than in nations with fewer civil liberties. The implication, from the inclusion of institutional factors in the model, is that civil liberties have an indirect impact on the rate of labor migration out of agriculture in Africa. The impact is a mix of economic incentives and civil liberties. In the political rights model, the most free countries had the largest migration elasticity. The findings on political rights impacts support findings by Friedman and McMillan that civil liberties are a more important determinant of economic growth than political rights. Further testing for measurement error confirmed that the data were flawed, but not so greatly that the basic findings were overturned. The migration out of African agriculture was found to be sensitive to the effect of price signals, which were conditioned by the degree of political rights and civil liberties. Policy makers are urged to consider both changes in pricing and institutions.     

Political Opinions and the TUCE

The TUCE is being widely used in economic education research at the college level. Although it has gained acceptance as a standardized evaluation instrument, it has also become the subject of close scrutiny. Rothman and Scott report on their study to determine whether or not the TUCE “may also measure political attitudes.” The relationship between the students' political opinions and their scores on the TUCE are examined, but other possible explanatory variables (such as previous economics instruction, sex and SAT scores) are also analyzed. The authors discuss possible reasons why “untrained conservatives know more about market systems than do untrained liberals,” and suggest that there are factors other than economic conservatism at work.     

Competition Among National Football Leagues. Does It Exist? Should We Regulate?

It is often supposed that the stakeholders of a national football league draw more satisfaction from their sport if the league is balanced, that is, if a large number of clubs have a reasonable chance of winning. This is the so‐called Competitive balance hypothesis. This hypothesis can be challenged, however, in the context of international competition like the European champions league. It could be that the utility of national leagues' stakeholders would be higher if the probability of victory for their nation's club at the international level were higher. If this were the case, a league's governing body intending to maximize the quality of the national league by making use of redistributive schemes would face a trade‐off between national competitive balance and international performance of the national representative club. We propose a simple microeconomic framework to model this trade‐off. If a non‐cooperative game exists among the national league governing bodies, whether it is a Nash or a Stackelberg one, this game would result in inefficient redistributive policies. We find ‘soft’ empirical evidence of such a competition among the big 5 football leagues in Europe. This result supports the idea of the creation of an international regulatory body. We derive the conditions under which the international regulatory body should ensure that the leagues' governing bodies implement redistributive schemes guaranteeing the respect of the national competitive balance. We also emphasize the risk of experiencing a drop in the quality of leagues if one of them becomes too big relatively to the others, what we call the tragedy of the wealthy.     

International risk sharing and commodity prices

Abstract Cole and Obstfeld (1991) exposited a classic result where equilibrium movements in the terms of trade could make ex ante risk‐sharing arrangements unnecessary: a unity elasticity of substitution across goods and production specialization. This paper extends their model to N countries and M commodities (N > M). Here the terms of trade provides insurance against commodity‐specific shocks, not country‐specific shocks. Using commodity‐level production data at the national level and world commodity prices, we document significant terms of trade variability and positive responses of nation‐specific production to terms of trade improvements. The endogenous terms of trade insurance mechanism highlighted in CO is virtually non‐existent.     

Does democracy affect taxation and government spending? Evidence from developing countries

Focusing on developing countries in three geographical areas (South-East Asia, Latin America and European Union), we explore the relation between political variables and tax revenue, public spending and their structure. We build a new dataset for the 1990–2005 period with fiscal, political and socio-economic variables. Since democracy is a complex and multidimensional concept, we measure it using two variables, the political strength of democratic institutions, and the protection of civil liberties. We perform three sets of estimates: (i) cross-country pooled OLS regressions with region fixed effects, (ii) country fixed effects regressions and (iii) region specific regressions with country fixed effects. While the first model delivers some significant correlations between political variables and tax items, when controlling for country fixed effects we find that tax revenue and tax composition are in general not significantly correlated with the strength of democratic institutions and the protection of civil liberties. The only exceptions are indirect, trade and property taxes. A similar result applies to public spending, with the exception of defense expenditure. Overall, our findings cast some doubt on the exact public policy channels through which political institutions affect economic development.     

Unbundling democracy: Political rights and civil liberties

Much recent political economy and political science literature views democracy in terms of political rights. This view, often referred to as electoral democracy, is particularly pronounced in the empirical literature. We reincorporate the role of civil liberties, which are at the core of modern democracy, in two ways. We identify four fundamental sources of potential differences in the evolution of political rights and civil liberties. We present systematic, robust and varied empirical evidence on the direct impact of two of these potential sources of differences using cross-national panel data and accounting for the modernization hypothesis. We obtain two noteworthy empirical results: civil liberties exhibit greater persistence than political rights in affecting subsequent outcomes; and, our main result, civil liberties are complementary to political rights when affecting subsequent outcomes, while the reverse is not the case. Consequently, one must incorporate civil liberties as a determinant of electoral democracy. More generally, both dimensions must be considered to understand the setbacks recently experienced by many democracies, despite their holding of free and fair elections.     

The Challenge of Market Power under Globalization

The legacy of Adam Smith leads to a false confidence on the optimality of laissez faire policies for the global market economy. Instead, the polarized character of current globalization deeply affects both developed and underdeveloped economies. Current globalization is characterized by factor exchange between economies of persistently unequal development. This implies the existence of persistent extraordinary market power in transnational corporations, reflected in their disproportionate participation in income and policy. These are shown to be steady‐state features of globalization in a convergence club model of development and underdevelopment including trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). Moreover, results in tax competition explain how the increased share of transnational profits under globalization leads to lower corporate taxes, more conservative policies, and weaker institutions for balancing market power. The increased level of market power under globalization poses a serious challenge for national and global governance that deeply impacts economic development, distribution, sustainability, and democracy everywhere.     

Growth,Real Exchange Rates and Trade Protectionism since the Financial Crisis

Existing evidence suggests that protectionist activity since the financial crisis has been muted, raising the question whether the historically well‐documented relationship between growth, real exchange rates and trade protectionism has broken down. We use a novel and comprehensive dataset that stretches beyond the traditionally considered tariff and trade defense measures to study the responsiveness of trade policies to business cycles and price competitiveness in the time period since the financial crisis. We find that the specter of protectionism has not been banished. Countries continue to pursue more trade‐restrictive policies when they experience recessions and/or when their competitiveness deteriorates. Our results suggest that the global economy continues to be exposed to the risk of a creeping return of trade protectionism.     

Economic Reform and Corruption: Evidence from Panel Data

The notion that economic reform can reduce corruption remains prevalent in the policy agenda of international financial institutions, especially of the World Bank. Economic reforms have, therefore, been carried out throughout various parts of the world to improve the performance of the economies. Using data from 94 low‐ and middle‐income nations for the period 1996–2015, this study employs static and dynamic panel analysis to examine whether economic reform undertaken in accordance with the World Bank's reform programs negatively affects corruption. Our findings suggest that enhancing government effectiveness (i.e. independence of civil service from political pressure, provision of quality public services, effective policy formulation and the government's commitment to such policies) and improving public rights and civil liberties could be some of the most promising policies in terms of fighting corruption. The role of economic development and growth in real per capita income is also found to be significant in some of the specifications. However, the assertion that economic reform can reduce corruption is rejected in all the specifications. We rather find evidence that economic reforms negatively affect the ability of democracy to fight corruption, although on a slim margin. The central theme of the implications of our findings is that in combating corruption, social, institutional and legal means are far more important than economic means. The finding thus is compatible with the World Bank's effort in the later years to introduce governance and democracy as effective tool against corruption.     

THE IMPACT OF ANTISMOKING POLICIES IN KOREA ON QUIT SUCCESS AND SMOKING INTENTIONS

In 2001 and 2002, the Korean government dramatically increased cigarette taxes, anti‐smoking advertisements, and smoking prohibitions as part of an anti‐smoking campaign. This paper examines the impacts of these policy changes by modeling quit success and smoking intentions pre‐ and post‐policy and attributing model differences to anti‐smoking policies. Model results provide evidence that national anti‐smoking policies increased both quitting success and intention to quit. However, the impacts of these policies are uneven throughout Korean society. Females and those who exercise for health maintenance experienced higher quit success. Heavy smokers and high frequency alcohol drinkers stated they are less likely to quit smoking post‐policy. One impact of national anti‐smoking policies is reduced provincial differences among Koreans in both quit success and intention to quit. Future anti‐smoking policies should address the different needs of these groups. (JEL D12, I19)