The anatomy of financial crises: Evidence from the emerging ADR market

We study the anatomy of recent financial crises in Mexico, East Asia, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina by investigating the efficiency and pricing of the emerging American depositary receipt (ADR) market. We use a non-parametric technique to test for persistent regime shifts in two basic structural relationships for ADR returns in 20 emerging countries — identified via arbitrage and capital mobility considerations — that should always hold in efficient and integrated capital markets. We find that those “normal” market conditions were instead often violated in proximity of financial crises: The law of one price often weakened (by 54% on average) and domestic sources of risk became more important (often by more than 100%) for many emerging ADRs. We also find the likelihood of these regime shifts to be related to proxies for uncertainty among investors, exchange rate volatility, trade linkages, and liquidity (but not stock market trends, currency devaluations, capital flight, or capital controls).     

Capital flows,current account deficits,and financial crises in emerging market economies

Some emerging market economies are said to face today conditions similar to those faced by Mexico in 1994 at the time of its serious financial crisis. This paper identifies a number of macroeconomic and financial indicators, constructs a profile of the Mexican economy at the time of the crisis, and then compares these with the conditions in other major emerging market economies in Latin America and Asia today in order to determine the extent to which they resemble those of Mexico at the time of the 1994 crisis. The conclusion is reached that macroeconomic and financial indicators cannot by themselves predict Mexican-style financial crises. In today's world of highly integrated capital markets, any anticipation of financial unsustainability can lead to a massive capital outflow from the nation and trigger a crisis, with the catalyst usually being a worsening political problem. The usefulness of the indicators discussed is in providing a profile of the financial condition of the nation, evaluating the potential danger of a financial crisis, anticipating the depth of the crisis if one arises, and pointing to the precautions that a nation can take in trying to avoid a crisis or reduce its severity if one does occur.     

Dealing with financial crises in emerging markets

Financial crises in emerging markets are a reality of doing business in these countries in the early twenty‐first century. Managers can gain some perspective on this problem from experiences of firms in crises that occurred in Mexico, Thailand, and Russia during the 1990s. We show how firms have taken steps to protect themselves against financial crises and to deal with the crises once underway in these three countries. Such strategies are divided into frameworks of: short‐term, immediate responses to a crisis; intermediate steps during the period of economic downturn; and long‐term continuing responses for operating in emerging markets. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The financial determinants of corporate cash holdings: Evidence from some emerging markets

This paper investigates corporate cash holdings in developing countries. In particular, we look into the effect of capital structure and dividend policy on cash holdings in Brazil, Russia, India, and China and compare our results with a control sample from the US and the UK. Our sample contains 1992 firms across these countries for the period 2002–2008. We employ Instrumental Variables analysis to control for the endogeneity of the financial policies (cash holdings, capital structure, and dividend policy). Our results show some evidence that capital structure and dividend policy affect cash holdings. There are similarities between developed and developing countries on the factors determining corporate cash holdings. The results of our cross-country model provide evidence that capital structure, dividend policy, and firm size are important factors in determining cash holdings. Finally, we show that firms operating in countries with low shareholder protection hold more cash.     

Corruption and cash holdings: Evidence from emerging market economies

We examine the effect of corruption on cash holdings and cash value using a panel data set of 4236 firms from 16 emerging market economies. We find that the cash holdings are positively related to the corruption and by managing their cash holdings upwards, the firms can benefit in the corrupt environment by trading cash. Furthermore, cash holding adds value to the firms. However, it is insignificant when the firms are operating in high corruption environment with low investor protection. Overall, the evidence suggests that corruption play an important role in shaping the cash policies of firms in emerging markets.     

Investor participation and the volatility-volume relation: Evidence from an emerging market

Using a unique dataset from the Chinese stock market that keeps track of the daily number of shareholders, we find that the ownership breadth (proxied by the number of shareholders) is negatively related to stock price volatility. However, consistent with the previous literature on volatility-volume relation, we find that the stock price volatility remains positively related to number of traders participating in the market. We also find that the relations of both the daily order imbalance and the daily depth imbalance with the number of shareholders (traders) are negative (positive). Our results suggest that a higher number of shareholders tend to supply liquidity and reduce volatility, while a higher number of traders tend to compete for liquidity and increase volatility.     

Herding behaviour in an emerging market: Evidence from the Moscow Exchange

This study investigates the extent to which herding towards the market consensus for Russian stocks is driven by fundamental and non-fundamental factors. We find evidence that investors on the Moscow Exchange herd without any reference to fundamentals during unanticipated financial crises coupled with high uncertainty, in falling markets, and during days with extreme upward oil price movements. In contrast, in periods of high liquidity and on days of international sanction announcements during the Ukrainian crisis, herding behaviour is merely driven by fundamentals. In Russia, macroeconomic news releases induce both information-related herding and herding without any reference to fundamentals. These results suggest that motives of investors' herding behaviour vary under specific market conditions such as market trends, liquidity, uncertainty, arrival of new information, and oil price volatility.     

Expropriation risk and housing prices: Evidence from an emerging market

This paper examines the microeconomic determinants of residential real estate prices in Caracas, Venezuela, using a private database containing 17,526 transactions from 2008 to 2009. The particular institutional characteristics of many countries in Latin America, and Venezuela in particular, where land invasions and expropriations (with only partial compensation) have been common threats to property owners, provide us with an opportunity to test the effects of these risks on housing prices using a unique database. The effect of these risks on property prices is negative and significant. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to quantify these impacts in the Hedonic pricing literature applied to real estate. Size, the number of parking spaces, the age of the property, the incidence of crime, and the average income in the neighborhood are significant determinants of prices. Finally, this paper analyzes the microeconomic determinants of housing prices at the municipal level.     

Economic growth,financial market,and twin crises

In this study, we look not only to provide empirical evidence to investigate the direct impact of financial crises on economic growth, but also to examine the roles of insurance development, financial liberalization, financial institution, and crisis intervention policies on the relationship between the two. We employ a panel data framework from 50 countries by applying the dynamic panel generalized method of moments model. Our main empirical results show that financial crises do have a significantly negative impact on economic growth. In addition, governments or authorities are encouraged to further enhance their insurance sector in order to help spur economic growth when financial crises arise. The government intervention policy choice is also an important factor influencing economic growth during crises.     

Industry globalization and the performance of emerging market firms: Evidence from China

In this study, we explore the extent to which industry globalization affects the performance of firms in China, an emerging market. We focus on the period between 1996 and 2001 and track the globalization levels for six different Chinese industries as well as the performance of 166 public listed firms in these industries. The results validate our major premise: high levels of industry globalization positively impact the performance of Chinese firms. We also find that when their industries globalize, firms with slack resources experience greater performance improvement than other firms without these resources.     

The stock market performance of exploration-oriented and exploitation-oriented cross-border mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from emerging market enterprises

This study builds on insights from mergers and acquisitions (M&A) studies and the perspective that stock market performance is affected by the M&A strategies of firms. Past studies show that acquisitions are an effective way to exploit existing knowledge and explore new possibilities. We argue that stock market performance can be a response to exploration/exploitation strategies in the context of cross-border M&As by emerging market multinationals. Based on cross-border M&A data of Chinese multinationals, we find that exploration-oriented acquisitions have worse stock market performance than exploitation-oriented acquisitions. Furthermore, we find support for our premise that acquiring firms can reduce the risk of exploration-oriented acquisitions by having more high-discretion slack resources or by maintaining a high level of equity share of the target firm. In addition, acquiring firms perform better if they conduct exploration-oriented acquisitions in related industries. Our results contribute to a better understanding of exploration and exploitation in the context of M&As.     

The impact of trade and financial openness on bank loan pricing: Evidence from emerging economies

In this paper, we examine the impact of trade and financial openness on bank loan pricing. Using data from 35 emerging economies, we first document that higher trade and financial openness lower interest rates on gross bank loans using country-specific measures for trade and financial openness. We then confirm our findings using firm-specific measures for trade and financial openness and individual loan spread. Exploiting the accession to World Trade Organization (WTO) as a quasi-natural experiment, we observe loan interest rates declined in countries after joining the WTO. Overall, we imply that openness is beneficial for financial development in emerging economies.     

Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper reassesses how “experience-based” corporate corruption affects stock market volatility in 14 emerging markets. We match the World Bank enterprise-level data on bribes with a unique cross-country macroeconomics dataset obtained from the World Bank development indicators. It is found that wider coverage of “realized” corporate corruption in the emerging markets investigated reduces the stock market volatility, attributed to decrease in uncertainty about government policy with regard to the business environment, as implied by the general equilibrium model of Pastor and Veronesi (2012). Overall, our results suggest that stock price volatility decreases as the uncertainty about government policy becomes more predictable, which is consistent with the testable hypotheses of Pastor and Veronesi (2012).     

Predicting financial crises in emerging markets using a composite non-parametric model

The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The paper aims at showing that the key difficulty is not the identification of proper endogenous variables, but the ability to combine them in a way that is able to capture the combinatorial aspect of such causal relations. The paper is based on a newly developed non-parametric methodology for country risk signaling: the RiskMonitor CDM-Model. Using a combination of macroeconomic indicators and a composite model of 5 modern non-parametric classification methods, we constructed 9 early warning signals to predict financial crises in emerging markets. These signals are constructed for 3 types of crises (cyclical crises, exchange rate crises and transfer crises) and over 3 horizons (less than 1 year, 1 to 3 years, 3 to 5 years). This complex use of quantitative models is able to provide excellent early warning information, with impressive back-testing results on 50 developing countries over the period 1980 to 2002.     

Sovereign credit ratings, emerging market risk and financial market volatility

This article presents event studies that find a significant effect on dollar bond yield spreads when rating agencies put emerging-market sovereign bonds on review with negative outlook. The finding has two conditional implications. If rating agencies can be turned from late into early warning signals, they would have the potential to dampen boom-bust cycles in emerging-market flows. If rating agencies cannot improve on their reactive approach witnessed in the run-up and aftermath of recent currency crises, regulation and guidelines stipulating a certain rating status for institutional investment will continue to intensify boom-bust cycles. The paper concludes with regulatory suggestions for both outcomes.     

Development of firm export market oriented behavior: Evidence from an emerging economy

Based on gathered survey data from Chinese apparel exporters, using structural equation modeling technique, a proposed firm's export market oriented (EMO) behavior model was empirically tested. A great set of antecedent factors (i.e., organizational structure, export systems, export coordination, top management factors, and export dependence) and moderating factors (i.e., environmental turbulence, export experience) were examined in the context of China, which extends the EMO literature from mainly Western business setting to non-Western business environment. This study identifies several key antecedents (i.e., export reward and training systems, top management support, and export dependence) facilitating the development of firm's EMO behavior while determining the specific moderating effects of environment and experience, and therein explains a large percentage of variance in EMO behavior (78.3%). Importantly, we uncover some instances where the theory of firm EMO behavior's antecedents does not hold for Chinese apparel exporters.     

Firm competencies on market entry success: Evidence from a high-tech industry in an emerging market

This study explores the effects of three firm competencies, namely, business network, new product development (NPD), and marketing management on market entry success of a high-tech industry in an emerging market. Business network encompasses research and development (R&D) partnership, inter-organizational network, and government relationship (guanxi). NPD consists of R&D capability and product process innovation, while marketing management encompasses distribution channel, promotion, branding, and information management. Using data from 55 biopharmaceutical multinational companies in China, this study applies structural equation modeling technique with confirmatory factor analysis for testing and estimating relationships. We find that only marketing directly influences entry success, whereas the other two yield indirect effects. Our study also suggests the critical role of business network as a prerequisite for entry process. Simultaneously, NPD serves as the driving force of marketing through the creation of product competitiveness.     

Transmission of central bank communication to emerging economies: Evidence from the Korean stock market

This study analyzes the impact of US central bank communication on financial markets in emerging economies. We find that informal communication from the Fed positively influences the Korean stock market at a greater magnitude than the US stock market. The results show that the Korean stock market experienced higher excess return when Korea's monetary policy decisions are uncertain, suggesting that central bank communication in central countries could transmit to emerging economics through their monetary policy decisions and uncertainty. In addition, various portfolios and individual equities have a positive market risk-return tradeoff in the presence of Fed communication only.     

The influence of firm-specific and country-specific advantages in the internationalization of emerging market firms: Evidence from Turkey

This paper examines the role of institutional factors that enable firm- and country-specific drivers of emerging market (EM) firms’ internationalization based on case-based research conducted in one EM, Turkey. Findings indicate that 10 major factors comprised of firm-specific and country-specific advantages drove the focal case study firms abroad: the firm-specific factors ranged from financial and operations supremacy; excellence in value chain activities; inexpensive human resources; rapid learning capabilities in production and technology development; and adaptability to foreign markets; while the country-specific factors included home-government policies supporting internationalization; logistical advantages arising from geographical position; adaptability capabilities resulting from former survival through institutional voids; strong social ties formed through networks; and availability of low cost resources. These findings are discussed and future research questions are offered.