饲料需求低迷阻碍豆粕价格回升

虽然当前进口大豆原料到港成本处于较高水平，加之国内豆油价格也呈现逐步下跌态势．但由于养殖饲料企业豆柏需求十分低迷．导致近期粕价回升前景黯淡。     

近期国内大豆、豆油、豆粕市场价格情况

近日大豆市场涨势还在延续不断，东北运输问题愈加严重，关内大豆供应每天都在告急，油厂备受大豆短缺之苦，日前已有很多油厂(尤其山东)开始停产，更多的油厂面临大豆原料殆尽(库存大豆原料大致还能支撑10天左右的生产)即将停产的严重情况发生。由此造成了我国各地大豆现货价格同步大幅上涨、关内有价无市无料的同时，不仅使大连商品期货交易所大豆期价连日来保持大幅上涨势头，也使我国大豆的产品豆油、豆粕的价格一天一涨。     

三大利空导致豆粕价格大幅下跌

11月上、中旬,国内豆粕市场现货价格创出每吨（下同）2400元的高点之后,又踏入漫漫跌途,回踩到6～9月间2050～2100元的年内低价区域。     

饲料消费增速将放缓国内豆粕价格涨势受限

美豆供需偏紧成定局,但国内因单产下调空间可能受限和国储抛售形成利空,后期豆类可能外强内弱。就豆粕而言,目前期价在4200元／吨附近,而一旦冲高至4400元／吨则可适当减仓。美豆单产下调空间受限在美国农业部的8月份供需报告中,美豆单产从40．5蒲式耳下调至36．1蒲式耳／英亩,从最近Pro Farmer的调查数据看,预计美豆单产为34．8蒲式耳／英亩。     

豆粕弱市些许支撑令价格振荡

当前沿海地区豆粕价格进人2200-2250元／吨的价位区间，价格波动频率及幅度明显降低，可以说豆粕市场在弱市之中遇到了一些支撑，主要表现在以下几个方面。     

2005年巴西玉米和豆粕饲料用量将提高

据巴西的全国动物饲料行业协会称，2005年国内饲料行业的玉米和大豆用量将会比上年多出300万吨。     

饲料系数、饲料价格与水产养殖经济效益的关系

<正> 水产配合饲料养殖给水产养殖业带来了一场深刻的变革,无论是从养殖观念、养殖结构的调整、管理方式等都发生了巨大的变化。但是,随着养殖规模的扩大、养殖产量的大幅度的提高,水产品市场价格却持续下滑,水产养殖效益逐渐趋向微利甚至亏损,挫伤了养殖户的积极性。在此背景下,许多养殖户盲目地选用低价格的饲料,以为低价格饲料会降低养殖成本,获取较高的经济效益,但是许多     

2006年国内豆粕市场分析展望

延续2005年底的行情,虽然市场开始不接受,但是国内豆粕价格依然缓慢上行,此时期出现这样的走势也是历史少见的,因此市场对此充满了疑虑、茫然。2006年市场该如何演绎,可以从如下几个方面入手。     

大豆和豆粕价格将会下跌

据总部设在德国汉堡的行业期刊《油世界》表示,大豆价格将会大幅下跌,因为作为全球最大的大豆进口国,中国2010年5～6月可能放慢创纪录的进口步伐。由于进口大豆到货量大幅提高,中国国内库存急剧提高,从而导致中国的进口步伐放慢。     

世界鱼粉价格居高不下,豆粕逐渐取代鱼粉

<正> 目前世界鱼粉和鱼油产量与供给远低于预期。鱼粉价格居高不下,与豆粕的比价关系遭到破坏。蛋白饲料买家正在用价格低廉的高蛋白豆粕取代鱼粉采购。鱼粉产量不足的主要原因是秘鲁11月的捕鱼量低迷。秘鲁的一些观察家认为这是一场灾难。传统捕捞海     

Regime Shifts in the Fish Meal/Soybean Meal Price Ratio

Aquaculture growth has led to worries about overfishing and reduction in wild‐caught food fish supply because of increased demand for fish meal. As such, the price ratio between fish meal and soybean meal has received much attention as an indicator of changing market conditions. In recent years, the price ratio between these two commodities has become more volatile. Several authors have suggested that the traditional relationship between fish meal and soybean meal has broken down and that this is evidence of increased demand pressure on fish meal. In this article, we investigate the hypothesis that there are two regimes for the relative price between fish meal and soybean meal. The empirical results support this hypothesis, with the low‐price regime representing the traditional stable relative price. The continued linkages between the fish meal and the soybean meal markets indicate that aquaculture is reducing its dependency on marine proteins in favour of vegetable proteins.     

基于ARIMA模型的豆粕期货价格预测方法研究及启示

受中美贸易摩擦持续升级和猪肉价格暴涨的影响,豆粕期货价格的波动成为了当前社会各界关注的一个热点问题。本文以2018年1月2日至11月30日期间大连商品交易所豆粕期货价格作为研究对象,分析了ARIMA模型对于豆粕期货价格预测的有效性。实证研究的结果显示该模型在短期内对豆粕价格的预测精确度较高,但是随着时间的推移其误差开始增加。同时,通过ARIMA模型所反映出来的豆粕价格相关性的滞后阶数也可发现目前我国的豆粕期货交易存在投机氛围较浓等问题。基于以上分析,最后分别从投资者角度和期货市场发展层面提出了相应的对策建议。     

豆粕中大豆低聚糖脱色工艺的研究

以脱脂大豆豆粕为原料,利用乙醇为有机溶剂浸提大豆低聚糖,提取后用活性炭脱除提取液中的色素。通过单因素和正交实验,采用活性炭对大豆低聚糖粗提取液行脱色的最佳工艺参数为:活性炭添加量1.5%,pH值3.0,时间20min,温度40℃的条件下,脱色率为35.7%。     

Price Volatility Spillovers in the Western Canadian Feed Barley,U.S. Corn,and Alberta Cattle Markets

Price volatility complicates price discovery and creates risks for cattle producers. This paper analyzes volatility spillovers in the western Canadian beef cattle supply chain. A modified bivariate VAR‐BEKK‐GARCH model is used to examine spillovers and account for asymmetries associated with rising versus falling markets. The spillovers that are found are unidirectional from input to output markets. Spillovers tended to be stronger when cattle prices are depressed and feed costs are rising. Volatility transmission is also flows from feed barley to feeder cattle markets, but volatility does not flow in the opposite direction nor does it advance by more than one level in the supply chain. La volatilité des prix complique la découverte des prix et crée des risques pour les éleveurs de bétail. Cet article analyse les répercussions de la volatilité au sein de la chaîne d'approvisionnement des bovins d'élevage. Un modèle VAR‐BEKK‐GARCH modifié à deux variables sert à l'examen des répercussions et tient compte des asymétries associées aux marchés à la hausse et à la baisse. Les répercussions décelées sont unidirectionnelles du marché des intrants aux produits. Les répercussions semblent plus fortes lorsque les prix des bovins sont bas, et les coûts de fourrage à la hausse. Le transfert de la volatilité se fait aussi sentir de l'orge de fourrage aux marchés de bovins d'engraissement, mais l'inverse ne survient pas et elle ne progresse pas de plus d'un niveau dans la chaîne d'approvisionnement.     

Competitive Storage,Biofuels and the Corn Price

The use of corn as an ethanol feedstock has been stimulated by US biofuels policy. This has changed both the position and the slope of the corn demand curve and increased the pass-through from crude oil to corn prices. The principal constraints on ethanol consumption and production have been regulation (the biofuels mandate), capacity constraints in ethanol refining and the blend wall, which puts a ceiling on the ethanol content of gasoline. The incidence of these constraints has varied over time. We model these impacts within the competitive storage model using structural break regression analysis. Our analysis shows that the pass-through has varied over time in relation to the share of ethanol in total US corn use. Our analysis provides robust empirical evidence of an increase in the pass-through from crude oil to corn prices over the period from the start of the century to a high level over 2004–2008 when corn use in ethanol was growing very fast. This enhanced sensitivity was driven by competition for corn as an ethanol feedstock with stock demand exerting strong upward pressure on the corn price.     

玉米蛋白粉的综合利用及研究进展

玉米蛋白粉是湿磨法生产玉米淀粉过程中的主要副产品,具有特殊的气味和色泽,水溶性差,口感粗糙,而且严重缺乏赖氨酸和色氨酸等必需性的氨基酸,使其生产附加值很低。因此,长期以来,玉米蛋白粉主要作为畜禽廉价的饲料来源或随废液自然排放。来源广泛、价格低廉的玉米蛋白粉经过深加工处理以后,可以得到性能优良的玉米醇溶蛋白、天然营养的着色剂和多种生物活性寡肽,这是对玉米和玉米蛋白粉进行深加工、提高其附加值的有效途径。     

Basis Pricing, Futures-Cash Price Transmission and Appropriate Hedge Ratios: The Case of the Soybean Market in Ontario

The academic literature on the determination of risk-minimizing hedge ratios has apparently ignored the potential impact that the pricing strategies adopted by the grain elevators may have on the futures-cash price transmission, and therefore on the determination of the correct hedge ratio. This paper addresses this problem from a theoretical perspective, and then develops a model that is applied to the soybean market in Chatham, Ontario.
La littérature académique concernant la détermination des ratios de couverture à terme minimisant le risque a apparemment ignoré l'impact potential des stratégies des faiseurs de prix sur un marché sur la relation entre les prix spot et les prix à terme. II est possible que de ce fait ces stratégies influencent également la détermination du vrai ratio de couverture. Ce papier traite ce problème d'un point de vue théorique, puis vérifie ces résultats en les appliquant au cas du marché du soja à Chatham, Ontario.     

Processing Technology,Market Power and Price Transmission

This paper focuses on the extent to which price changes occurring at the farm-level are transmitted to the retail sector. A price transmission elasticity is derived which is shown to depend on the degree of market power in the food industry and the nature of the food industry's processing technology. The offsetting role of the processing technology and market power in determining the extent of price transmission are highlighted. A case-study reports values for the price transmission elasticity for the US beef and pork sectors.     

发酵豆粕营养价值变化的研究

在一定的条件下用微生物对豆粕进行发酵处理,由于微生物的作用使豆粕的营养价值得到提高,并且抗营养因子得到一定程度的降低或消除,这样就能降低抗营养物质对畜禽的影响,增加动物对营养物质的消化及吸收,从而提高了豆粕的营养成分和饲喂价值。这对饲料行业的发展有很大的影响。综述了豆粕经微生物发酵后的特点、生产工艺及其营养价值变化。