煤电一体化项目财务评价指标比分析

以彬长-国网能源煤电一体化项目为研究背景,提出财务指标比的概念,即煤电一体化投资项目财务指标与煤、电项目分开投资财务指标之间的比值。通过对两种项目投资方式的财务内部收益率、财务净现值、投资回收期及贷款偿还期4个主要财务评价指标比值计算分析,得出煤电一体化项目投资相较于煤、电项目分开投资指标比R{R}IRR,RNPV,RPt,RId中:RIRR,RNPV的值大于1;RPt,RId的值小于1,煤电一体化项目投资比煤、电项目分开投资在财务盈利能力、抗风险能力强,煤电一体化项目投资方案比煤、电项目分开投资方案好。     

Return, Risk and Cost of Equity for Stock S&L Firms: Theory and Empirical Results

This study examines the current deregulated environment for and the financial position of savings and loan associations. It is argued that in a less regulated, more competitive environment managers of savings and loan associations will have to become more proficient in using financial management techniques to assure the survival and the return to profitability of their associations. One aspect of financial management is a more careful estimation of and use of the cost of equity capital, especially for the increasing number of associations that have converted from mutual to stock organizations. Different approaches to the estimation of the cost of equity capital are discussed and monthly stock prices of 35 stock savings and loan associations are used to estimate representative costs of equity capital.     

FHA Multifamily Financial Failure: A Review of Empirical Studies*

The FHA addresses the rental housing needs of low- and middle-income households through multifamily project mortgage insurance programs. These programs have been hindered, however, by substantial financial losses due to project default, assignments, and foreclosure. A review of existing empirical studies suggests that characteristics of project owners, the quality of project management, the adequacy of HUD screening, project construction, and project location all have an impact on financial viability. The results do not support claims that tenant characteristics are associated with failure. Although financial variables are closely related to failure, they are little used in the studies reviewed.     

R &D investments and profitability during the crisis: evidence from Greece

Innovation and Research and Development (R&D) investments have been considered in the literature as a significant determinant of corporate development and sustainability. Previous studies have examined the impact of intangibles on financial performance but not extensively within economic environments of intense financial turmoil. The scope of this study is to shed further light on this issue and examine whether R&D investments had an impact on the profitability of Greek firms especially during the sovereign debt crisis. We collected a sample of Greek corporations that have capitalized their R&D investments and paid significant amounts on R&D expenses during the period 2003–2016. Panel regression results indicated that R&D investments and R&D expenses had a negative impact on the profitability of sample firms before the crisis, but during the crisis (2011–2016) firms which managed to sustain or enhance their level of R&D investments achieved to improve their profitability. These findings corroborate our hypotheses that during a period of limited lending and hearse financial turmoil, R&D investments could be a vital tool for sustaining firms' financial performance. The study offers useful implications for managers and regulators, and contributes to the ongoing debate about the impact of R&D investments on corporate performance.     

Corporate governance and the bankrupt firm: An empirical assessment

The incidence of bankruptcy has risen dramatically among firms of all types and sizes in the past decade. Little is known, however, about the effects of alternative governance structures on the propensity of an organization to file Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Relying on logistic regression for periods 5 years and 3 years prior to the bankruptcy, as well as the contemporaneous period, we examine the relationships among independent/interdependent board composition and the structure of CEO/board chairperson positions and the filing of bankruptcy. While controlling for a series of financial indicators and firm size, the results illustrate robust explanatory power for the governance variables for both lagged periods.     

Pricing Efficiency in the Mortgage Market

Traditionally, the presence of serial correlation has been presumed to indicate an inefficient market for financial assets. As Latham [15] discusses, while the absence of serial correlation implies market efficiency, its mere presence does not imply inefficiency. Rather, market efficiency is a characteristic of security pricing. This study investigates pricing efficiency in the mortgage market. Using mortgage loan quotations for 343 institutions over a 71-week period, the empirical findings show that a wide variety of mortgage contracts are efficiently priced.     

Explaining Patterns of Profit-Sharing Activity

This paper compares the characteristics of firms that adopt deferred profit-sharing plans with those that adopt pension plans. Tax reports from a sample of 6, 000 firms in various industries are incorporated into logistic regression equations that predict whether these firms will have pension or deferred profit-sharing plans. The evidence suggests that custom in the labor market may play the greatest role in influencing the choice between the two plans.     

The Control of Technology Alliances: An Empirical Analysis of the Biotechnology Industry

We examine the determinants of control rights in biotechnology alliances through three case studies and a quantitative analysis. Aghion and Tirole [1994] argue that control rights will be assigned so as to maximize the value of the final output, as long as the R&D firm has sufficient financial resources. Consistent with this framework, the allocation of control rights to the R&D firm increases with the firm's financial resources. The empirical evidence regarding the relationship between control rights and the stage of the project at the time the alliance is signed is more ambiguous.     

Analyzing the Temporal Stability of Appraisal Model Coefficients: An Application of Ridge Regression Techniques

The use of multiple regression analysis as a tool of real estate valuation has received considerable attention in recent years. The primary objectives of this study are to investigate the multicollinearity among the property characteristics (regressor variables) and examine the stability of the estimated regression coefficients over time. Ridge regression techniques are used to partially adjust for the presence of collinearity. The results indicate that the ridge regression model provides a consistent set of properly signed, statistically significant regression coefficients throughout the sample period. Furthermore, ridge regression techniques are shown to have certain advantages over those of ordinary least squares for establishing logical and consistent values for specific property characteristics.     

The Impact of Homeowners' Housing Wealth Misestimation on Consumption and Saving Decisions

Using a unique data set of 81,943 house value estimates by the homeowners and their financial institution, I find that homeowners overestimate their house value by 3.1%. After controlling for homeowners' socioeconomic characteristics, I find that ex ante homeowners who rate (cash-out) refinance an existing loan to increase savings (consumption) are significantly more likely to underestimate (overestimate) their house value. Moreover, overestimators (underestimators) are more likely to increase (reduce) their spending ex post . Finally, I also find that underestimators are more likely to prepay their loans and overestimators are more likely to default on their loans.     

Residential Mortgage Markets: Current Developments and Future Prospects

Historical developments as well as current innovations have generated significant changes in the structure and operation of the residential mortgage market. General economic stability, a low inflation rate, growth of savings and loan associations, and strong consumer demand marked the fifteen-year period immediately following World War II. In contrast, the decade of the sixties was characterized by increased competition in the mortgage market, a series of credit crunches, and increased governmental activity. In reaction to these and related developments, current innovations affecting the mortgage market focus on design of new mortgage instruments, improvements in market efficiency, and reform of financial institutions. If history is a guide, it suggests that the residential mortgage market responds flexibly to adverse conditions.     

基于卫星遥感监测的石家庄市近地面PM2.5浓度时空动态分析

为了掌握石家庄市区域PM_2.5浓度的空间分布情况及其时间变化规律，更好地向大气污染治理及环境行政执法部门提供技术支持，利用卫星遥感数据开展了区域颗粒物浓度时空动态分析研究。基于Himawari-8卫星遥感数据，通过建立时空回归模型反演PM_2.5浓度，并对所得到的石家庄市2019年近地面PM_2.5的浓度，进行了时间和空间的动态分析。结果表明：1）从时间上来看，2019年PM_2.5月度变化基本呈两边高中间低的态势，取暖季月均浓度明显高于其他月份，且相对于2018年监测浓度有所上升；2）从空间来看，2019 年PM_2.5平均浓度呈现西低东高的形势，且东部各个县区高浓度“热点”聚集程度明显高于西部县区，但热点聚集性从第一季度到第四季度呈现出逐渐转弱的现象；3）遥感监测与地面监测的PM_2.5浓度相关性系数在0.7以上，验证了基于遥感反演进行PM_2.5浓度监测的可行性。因此，采用遥感手段对大气环境进行监测，可以全面获取区域大气环境的时空分布特征，并能够协助环保人员有针对性地核查与防范污染事件，具有较大的应用潜力。     

What factors of early-stage innovative projects are likely to drive projects’ success? A longitudinal analysis of Korean entrepreneurial firms

Previous studies have identified the factors affecting successful technology commercialization as outcomes of R&D projects. However, most of them have used cross-sectional data, whereas there is a dearth of literature using longitudinal data analysis. Longitudinal analysis is essential for investigating the characteristics of early-stage innovative projects due to the inherent time lag between project evaluation and commercialization. Therefore, this study examines the early-stage project characteristics that can be used as meaningful evaluation criteria for predicting success, particularly in technology commercialization. We collected data on the ex-ante evaluation results and ex-post commercialization results of R&D projects pursued by entrepreneurial firms. We then conducted a logistic regression analysis and identified three market-related factors as significant in driving technology commercialization success in the early stages of technology development: market potential, commercialization plan, and market condition.     

技术创新视角下外商直接投资与金融发展的空间非线性关系——基于半参数空间模型的实证检验

本文以全国30个省份的面板数据为样本,建立普通面板回归、空间滞后模型以及半参数空间滞后模型进行比较,探讨科技创新视角下金融发展的空间溢出效应以及外商直接投资对金融发展的非线性单向影响形态。由结果可知,由于金融资源高度流动性和信息扩张的快速化,金融发展的空间溢出效应明显;外商直接投资对金融发展的影响是非线性、呈现“V”型的三阶段效应。建议优化外商直接投资结构、缩小区域金融发展差距、大力投资教育和研发以推动全国金融市场的发展、提高外商直接投资利用率,转变经济发展模式。     

Emerging capital markets: A case study of equity markets in Pakistan

The Pakistan financial system displays all the classic characteristics of an emerging market: market capitalisation amounts to only 5.5% of GNP; less than 0.3% of the population are shareholders, resources mobilised through the capital market are insignificant compared to that through the banking system, and equities account for about 4% of the assets of the financial system.The pricing of both equity and debenture capital is administratively set by the Government. This has resulted in the shares of well-managed companies being issued at below market clearing price. Consequently, new shareholders benefit at the expense of original shareholders. Underwriters are denied any useful function and underwriting commission does not reflect perceived issue risk.There is a paucity of stock of well-run companies. The market also suffers from inadequate information flow and faces some fundamental institutional weaknesses. If the share buying habit is to increase and if savings are to be channelled into financial markets, appropriate mechanisms need to be developed for both broker and investor protection.The views expressed in this paper are those of its authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the International Finance Corporation. The information presented here in has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to completeness or accuracy.     

基于长短期记忆网络的轨道交通短期OD客流量预测

为了更准确地掌握轨道交通客流在线网中的时空分布,更高效地匹配客流需求与运输能力,实现提高轨道交通运输效率、改善运营服务质量的目的,提出了一种基于长短期记忆网络的短期OD(交通起止点)客流量预测方法。以历史客流数据为基础,定性分析车站间OD客流量的时空相关性,利用回归分析法定量分析客流影响因素,筛选出运营时刻、运营日特征、最低气温3个时间特征。为提高预测精度,以长短期记忆网络为基础,结合时间特征,为每对起讫点单独构建预测模型,形成了基于长短期记忆网络的轨道交通短期OD客流量预测模型。以苏州市为例进行验证,结果表明,加入了时间特征的短期OD客流量预测模型较移动平均模型、仅利用历史客流数据训练的基于LSTM网络的短期OD客流量预测模型,预测结果与真实值之间的误差降低了6.27%～8.58%,所提出的方法和模型可为轨道交通运营部门制定列车运行计划、组织客运工作提供更准确的数据资料。     

Will eChannel additions increase the financial performance of the firm?—The evidence from Taiwan

The emergence of the Internet has forced firms to add eChannels to their existing channel system. Nevertheless, empirical studies failed to provide direct evidence on whether eChannel addition could enhance the financial performance of the firm. In this research, an attempt was made to fill in this literature gap from three financial measure perspectives, i.e., Event Study methodology, Economic Value Added (EVA) measure and Market Value Added (MVA) measure. Empirical data were collected from Taiwan's financial service sector. The finding revealed that eChannel addition announcement could increase a firm's accumulative abnormal returns, EVA value and MVA value. We therefore concluded that eChannel addition could help increase the financial performance of the firm.     

Research Note: A Comparison of the Financial Characteristics of U.S. and Japanese Electronics Firms

The growing U.S. trade deficit with Japan has provided the motivation for a number of comparative studies of U.S. and Japanese business firms in recent years. In this study, the financial characteristics of U.S. and Japanese electronics firms are compared using multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) method. The findings indicate that the financial characteristics of U.S. and Japanese electronics firms are significantly different.     

The Financial Stakes in Due-On-Sale: The Case of California's State-Chartered Savings and Loans

On August 25, 1978 the California Supreme Court ruled that enforcement of due-on-sale clauses unduly restricts the right of homeowners to sell their homes. On June 28, 1982, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Federal Home Loan Bank Board could permit due-on-sale enforcement because such enforcement was important to the financial stability of savings and loans. Both courts' decisions, though contrary in their effect on the clause, are based on the economic importance of the clause. Just how important is the clause? This paper calculates how much money the 1978 California decision (Wellenkamp) transferred from affected savings and loans to homebuyers. The yearly transfer by 1981 is estimated at between $58 and $170 million. For the lenders, this amounts to between a tenth and a quarter of total 1981 losses. For affected homebuyers, the savings average 25% of mortgage interest payments. On the basis of these calculations, both courts are correct about the importance of the clause.     

我国宏观经济研究的最新进展

2008年是我国改革开放30周年，同时，国际上发生了自二十世纪二、三十年代“大萧条”以来最严重的金融危机。我国经济学界结合国际国内的新情况和新问题，对宏观经济问题进行了深入的理论和实证研究，取得了丰硕的研究成果，尤其是对宏观经济中储蓄投资失衡、价格波动和通货膨胀、经济增长的机制与约束条件、经济周期和经济波动、金融危机冲击下的宏观经济态势、财政分权与财政政策的有效性、货币政策效果和货币政策的选择等问题的研究上提出了许多创新观点。