Effects of data localization on digital trade: An agent-based modeling approach

Post the Snowden and Cambridge Analytica episodes, concerns have been raised by governments and regulators on protecting consumer data collected and transmitted by various digital firms. Driven by concerns of privacy, national security, surveillance, and cyber terrorism, governments around the world have been erecting barriers in cyberspace through data localization. The extent of data localization varies from free flow of data, to stringent restrictions requiring all data to be stored only within the territorial jurisdiction of the country. Though there are certain legitimate concerns regarding protection of personal data, scholars and liberal economists have long proclaimed that any restrictions on the Internet and associated digital trade will have serious economic consequences. Data localization affects digital trade between consumers and producers of digital services to varying degrees. In this paper, we use agent based modeling to study the properties and behaviours of consumers and producers under varying data localization regimes. An augmented gravity model of trade with iceberg coefficient is incorporated to reflect distance-related costs between producers and consumers. Varying data localization compliance costs are included to reflect the effect of non-tariff barriers of data restrictions. Our extensive simulations indicate that there is often clustering of consumers around local firms in highly restrictive data localization regimes, thus enabling local firms to effectively compete against global multinationals. However, results also indicate that while free cross-border data flow enables intense competition amongst producers, data localization restrictions often limit consumer choice due to its effect on price and quality of services.     

A quantitative analysis of trade policy responses to higher world agricultural commodity prices

The worldwide spike in prices of agricultural commodities in 2007–2008 elevated food security and social stability issues to the forefront, especially in many food-deficit countries. In order to mitigate the global food commodity price pressure on domestic markets, several major exporting and importing countries, mostly developing economies, adopted trade policy changes such as export bans (or raising export restrictions) or reducing import tariffs during the same period. This paper estimates the potential impacts of these policies on the world prices and trade of major agricultural commodities using a set of multi-country, multi-commodity, and partial-equilibrium models. Our findings suggest that over all, the trade policy responses in various countries increased the prices of all agricultural commodities, although the impact on the total net trade varies by commodity. The simulation results show that the overall impact of trade policy distortions on the world rice price is most significant at 24%, followed by wheat (14%) and barley (9%). In general, the poorer food-deficit countries/regions, which have limited power to manipulate their trade policies, experienced higher price increases compared to those major trading countries that adopted policy interventions. Also, the developing countries that are net importers which did not implement trade policy interventions experienced significant welfare losses resulting from interventions implemented by other major trading countries.     

Mutual dependence,partner substitutability,and repeated partnership: the survival of cross‐border alliances

Drawing on the resource dependence perspective, this study suggests that alliance survival is an adaptive response to both environmental dependence and partner dependence independently and jointly. Based on a sample of cross‐border alliances formed and terminated by local and foreign firms in a longitudinal setting, the results suggest that the mutual trade dependence between a home country and a host country is positively related to the survival of cross‐border alliances in the host country. Whereas partner substitutability reduces the probability of alliance survival, repeated partnership increases the probability. Moreover, mutual trade dependence reduces the negative effect of partner substitutability on alliance survival. The findings support the idea that resource dependence theory provides an important framework for the study of cross‐border alliances. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Standards,trade margins and product quality: Firm-level evidence from Peru

The ongoing debate on whether agri-food (public) regulatory standards are barriers or catalysts to trade is particularly pertinent for developing countries who are often standard-takers. Current evidence on the trade effects of regulatory standards is ambiguous. In this paper, we give a contribution focusing on the firm heterogeneity trade effects of (different) types of agri-food standards, considering firm-level exports from Peru. Particular emphasis is given to standards with different degree of restrictiveness, such as specific trade concerns (STCs) raised on the most stringent NTMs, and to product-quality upgrading. Results show that only the most restrictive NTMs significantly limit agri-food exports for Peruvian firms, affecting the probability to trade, firms’ exit and the export volume. Regular SPSs are found to enhance trade. Importantly, we uncovered relevant heterogonous effects of NTMs on firms of different size, showing that only the most stringent standards result in product quality upgrading.     

Empirical effects of short-term export bans: The case of African maize

Temporary export restrictions have been widely used in recent years in an attempt to stabilize domestic prices of staple grains. I use monthly, market-level price data to investigate the empirical effects of 13 short-term export bans on maize implemented by 5 countries in East and Southern Africa. I find no statistically significant effect of export bans on the price gaps between pairs of affected cross-border markets. My results for price gaps match those from a model simulation in which export bans are not implemented. However, prices and price volatility in the implementing country are significantly higher during export ban periods in the data than in the model simulation with no bans. Export bans in the region are imperfectly enforced, divert trade into the informal sector, and appear to destabilize domestic markets rather than stabilizing them.     

贸易便利化对我国汽车行业出口的影响及贸易潜力研究——基于跨国面板数据模型的实证分析

在国际贸易繁荣的景象下时有贸易保护主义的存在,推动贸易便利化成为大势所趋。本文利用与我国汽车行业贸易最密切的47个国家为样本实证研究得出,贸易便利化4个一级指标对我国汽车行业出口的影响从大到小依次为电子商务、口岸效率、海关环境、规制环境。然后利用跨国面板数据进行实证研究表明贸易便利化对我国汽车行业出口贸易有显著影响,并且通过提高贸易便利化来推动贸易只在“出口不足”的国家有效。     

“一带一路”倡议下中国与西亚贸易潜力研究--基于引力模型的实证分析

西亚地处亚欧非交界地带,自古以来就是丝绸之路的重要组成部分,广泛开展与西亚各国的经贸关系对“一带一路”建设具有重要意义。本文以中国与西亚各国的进出口贸易数据为基础,利用扩展的贸易引力模型分析了中国与西亚各国的贸易潜力,测算了双边贸易效率。实证结果表明:双方人均GDP、西亚各国的人口规模和区域贸易协定可以显著促进双边贸易,双边距离和中国的人口规模会阻碍贸易发展。据此建议中国在与西亚贸易往来时,应注重优化贸易结构、加强区域合作、发展港口运输和基础设施建设以及防范贸易风险。     

The impact of ICT convergence on development in the Asian region

Emerging economies in the Asia–Pacific region are experiencing dramatic and accelerating changes in patterns of ownership and investment in their telecommunications sectors, as well as in convergence. This paper will highlight the significant dependence of emerging economies of the region on convergence of ICT and how these technologies create new networks. Evidence will be cited from China, the Asian Dragons and the near NIEs like Malaysia and Indonesia, to show how they have created one of the largest markets in the world for telecoms equipment and services. The Southeast Asian countries with their open economies and export oriented investment technologies have proved that such policies have generated trade surpluses and long-term growth despite their current financial crises. They still plan to continue ascribing priority in their investment patterns to converging ICT.     

The rise of IT services clusters in India: A case of growth by replication

The Indian IT services sector has grown from small beginnings at the bottom of value creation to a major player in the global information and communications technology (ICT) industry. It commands a 55% share in the global market for IT services. India's IT sector value proposition in terms of low cost with large supply of high quality talent is compelling. As a result, India has become the premier choice not only for outsourcing IT services by the developed-world's multinational corporations (MNCs) but also for locating their own Global In-house Centers (GICs), which simultaneously compete and partner with local firms. This gave rise to six additional clusters beyond the earliest, largest and robust cluster, Bangalore. The paper provides a review of relevant literature; develops a conceptual framework for evaluation of clusters; and presents data and analysis with respect to relative size, growth, specialization, MNC presence and connectivity to local firms through expatriates and returning Indians, ,innovation; and discusses adequacy of ICT infrastructure for future growth. Although there are clear signs that the Indian IT sector has been moving towards a regime of providing high-end value added services, the sector's value proposition – lower cost combined with a large supply of high quality talent – remains the single most compelling reason for the rise and growth of multiple export clusters. Thus the sector's growth appears to be a case of growth by replication rather than innovation. The paper concludes that the Indian IT sector's value proposition in terms of lower cost combined with large supply of high quality talent remains the single most compelling reason for the rise and growth of multiple IT services export clusters. While the old adage, “people follow jobs” still holds for large part of the labor force, there is little doubt that the sprawling IT services clusters in India - with more to come from Tier II and Tier III cities – indicate, in fact, that “jobs follow talent." Both local firms and the MNCs, through their GICs, are pushing the boundaries of location farther and farther to continue to leverage cost advantage and available pools of talent.     

Does bridging the Internet Access Divide contribute to enhancing countries' integration into the global trade in services markets?

This paper examines the impact of countries' distance between their Internet usage and the world' average of the Internet usage intensity on their integration into the world market of trade in commercial services. Using an unbalanced panel dataset of 175 countries over the annual period 2000–2013, the empirical analysis indicates that the narrowing of the Internet-related distance would improve countries' integration into the world trade in commercial services market. Furthermore, it helps those countries that are geographically far from the world market to compensate for the adverse effect of this geographical distance on their integration into the world market of trade in commercial services.     

Water scarcity and food trade in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries

This study investigates food trade patterns in relation to water resources availability in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMED). Examinations show that most of these countries have a high dependence on the import of water intensive crops – cereal, vegetable oil and sugar, in the domestic food supply. The region as a whole is marginally a net exporter of fruits and vegetables, while variations are substantial across countries. Multi-variable regression analyses show that intensification of water scarcity is an important factor in explaining the increase in food import in the SEMED countries during the past two decades. It also finds that while GDP per capita has a strong influence on the level of food import in a country, its impact on changes in the import during the same period is rather modest. No significant relationship is found between the trade of fruits and vegetables and water resources availability. The projection on food import with respect to the decline in per capita water resources availability results in an increase of 40%, 39% and 14%, respectively, for cereal, vegetable oil and sugar by 2020 in the region, holding other factors constant. The European Union (EU) is the major food trade partner of the SEMED countries, except for cereal. About 70% of the fruit export and 55% of the vegetable export of the region currently go to the EU market. Expanding the export of fruits and vegetables is conducive to improving the value of water use in the SEMED countries. However, the expansion is constrained partly by the barriers in the destination markets, notably the EU.     

Policy coherence and food security: The effects of OECD countries’ agricultural policies

There have been important changes to agricultural policies in many OECD countries over the past decade and the international spill-over effects of support and protection have diminished. Now would be a good time to eliminate remaining distortions and put in place more efficient alternatives, including social safety nets and tools to help farmers manage risk. This would lock in the benefits of reform and simultaneously address charges of policy incoherence. In the context of high food prices, new issues have emerged with potential implications for food security. They include export restrictions, the use of biofuel mandates, and the opportunities and threats presented by increased foreign investment in agriculture. On these issues, as well as in terms of conventional support mechanisms, policies in emerging economies (in particular the BRIICS) are increasingly important. A pro-active agenda for policy coherence would involve not just eliminating policies that distort trade, but also enacting positive measures to increase food availability, for example by raising agricultural productivity, using resources sustainably, and eliminating waste and over-consumption. Across countries, there are important gains to be realised from knowledge sharing, and from multilateral action to provide global public goods – not least smoother functioning of the multilateral trading system.     

Market structure and U.S. trade flows

Using samples of input-output table detailed industries, we test the impact of various elements of market structure on U.S. trade flows, at the industry level, holding factor proportions constant. Industry demand characteristics and the extent of scale economies have significant impacts on trade flows. Labor intensity at the industry level has the effects on trade flows which are predicted by the factor proportions theory. Capital intensity increases both import and export flows; this result, together with certain others, suggests the importance of trade among industrialized countries in producer goods.     

“一带一路”建设与中国出口效率提升——基于面板数据随机前沿引力模型的实证研究

“一带一路”是深化改革开放、谋求共同发展的重大战略，国际贸易是重要的桥梁和纽带。本文采用基于面板数据随机前沿引力模型，对“一带一路”沿线国家进行实证分析，实证结果表明，GDP、总人口、中国对外投资、中国从各国进口、是否签订自由贸易协定、是否陆地接壤等指标均对中国出口产生正向效应，距离对中国出口产生负向效应。我们应该加快贸易通道建设，稳步推进“设施联通”；适当扩大对沿线国家的进口，发挥引领带动作用；积极参与自由贸易区谈判，提升双边贸易深度；加大对沿线国家的投资与开发，加强“政策沟通”。     

Investigating the impacts of time delays on trade

Time delays due to inefficient customs and administrative procedures have become a leading non-tariff barrier (NTB) that restrict international trade and impair social welfare. This paper investigates how time delays affect product quality, product price, trade flow, and social welfare, using data on the days it takes to clear customs in 96 countries. We explore the impacts of time delays on product quality and price with different levels of perishability. We find that longer time delays at the border would significantly decrease highly perishable agricultural products' quality and price. We also find that for highly perishable agricultural products, improved and simplified customs delays would increase trade flows and social welfare of importing countries.     

How far from harmonization are sanitary,phytosanitary and quality-related standards? An exporter’s perception approach

Harmonization of trade regulations and standards is perhaps the most contentious issue regarding export markets due to the impacts that it can have on trade. We determine the extent of harmonization as perceived by exporters with respect to the major Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPSs) and quality measures which Chile faces in 16 international fresh fruit markets. The methodology combined qualitative and quantitative techniques. First, the most relevant safety and quality standards and regulations were identified and ranked. Second, a representative sample of exporters was interviewed to assess their perceptions regarding the level of stringency across markets and time for selected regulations. Perceptions were ranked on a likert scale and based on this scale a stringency index was constructed. The results show that Chile faces regulations which can be grouped into the following categories: (i) phytosanitary measures; (ii) tolerance limits for pesticide residues and contaminants; (iii) hygiene requirements; (iv) labeling, marking and packaging; (v) product and process standards; and (vi) registration procedures and other import requirements. The number of regulations varied among countries, ranging from 13 to 3 out of the 14 considered in the study. The most stringent country among the sample as perceived by exporters was México, whereas the least stringent was Saudi Arabia. Additionally, exporters agreed that stringency has increased over time with an average of 15% between 2005 and 2009.     

我国服务业FDI与服务贸易关系的实证研究:1985～2008

本文运用协整理论与向量误差修正模型(VECM),对中国1985~2008年的服务业FDI与服务贸易进出口的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,中国服务业FDI与服务贸易进出口之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。服务业FDI与服务贸易出口之间存在双向的Granger因果关系,服务业FDI与服务贸易进口之间存在一个单向的Granger因果关系,服务贸易出口和进口之间也存在双向的Granger因果关系。基于检验结果提出了相关的政策建议。     

技术性贸易壁垒与中国高技术产品出口——基于扩展贸易引力模型的经验分析

本文基于扩展的贸易引力模型,使用2000~2015 年中国同22 个贸易伙伴国的面板数据,并引入和技术性贸易壁垒以及高技术产品密切相关的知识产权保护这一变量,实证考察进口国TBT 对中国高技术产品出口的影响。结果表明：（1）进口国实施 TBT 或进行知识产权保护均会抑制中国高技术产品的出口,但抑制作用并不显著;（2）若进口国将TBT 和知识产权保护相结合形成更为隐蔽的技术性贸易壁垒,将会显著抑制中国高技术产品的出口;（3）中国高技术产品出口呈现行业差异,其中医药制造业受到的抑制效应最大;（4）由于技术模仿和产品同质化现象的存在,中国高技术产品出口会在中高收入国家遭遇更为严重的TBT,对出口的抑制效应会更大。中国应将知识产权保护政策作为应对进口国TBT的一种补充,在保证高技术产品贸易健康发展的同时推动出口产业向中高端发展。     

Union Immobility? Trade Unions and the Freedoms of Movement in the Enlarged EU

East–West union co‐operation in Europe is discussed as the most serious test to cross‐border union solidarity, in the light of new frameworks capable to make sense of transnational trade union activity and alternative to theoretical nationalism. The empirical assessment of trade union chances reviews the activities of trade unions in the UK, Germany, Austria and Poland on foreign investment, migration and movement of services. Secondary evidence and case studies show that the strength of transnational union action does not depend on the country, but rather on its form. ‘Structural’ Europeanization remains weak (e.g. in most European Works Councils), while network‐based action is displaying strong developments, especially on migration, but least on the movement of services.     

Privacy,confidentiality and computers: National and international implications of US information policy

The author assesses what the USA has been doing or not doing in recent years to develop information policies for personal record information to deal with the rapidly changing record-keeping world of public and private organizations. He reviews how well these policies have been implemented and enforced in the context of the US system of government, and compares the experience of European countries with US efforts, especially in the light of the serious debate which is emerging over restraints placed on transborder data flows by the privacy protection efforts of various countries.