The multidimensional effect of financial development on trade in Africa: The role of the digital economy

The issue of how financial development affects international trade has gained much attention in the literature, both theoretical and empirical, without investigating the various transmission channels of financial development on international trade. Significantly, how the digital economy modulates the effects of financial development on trade remains unexplored. Our study addresses these research gaps using panel data from 47 African economies spanning 1990 to 2019. Our findings based on the dynamic system GMM approach show that the direct impacts of financial development and the digital economy have been crucial in driving international trade in Africa in the short and long runs. Second, in the short and long runs, the digital economy serves as a vital channel through which financial development has the most significant impact on trade in Africa. Third, the robustness checks by excluding countries endowed with natural resources in Africa provide robust evidence that digital technology and finance matter for trade. Further, the study discloses an important novelty in that the marginal effects on trade increase when financial development in Africa interacts with the digital economy. In light of these findings, we conclude that policy reforms should focus on policies that encourage the development of the digital economy and its use in the financial sector in Africa.     

Digital divide and financial development in Africa

This paper analyses the influence of the digital divide on the new IMF financial development index on a panel of 34 African countries over the period 2005–2017. Using the instrumental variables technique, we arrive at the main result that ICT divide is a severe handicap for the financial systems development in Africa. The use of financial development sub-indices relating to financial institutions and financial markets, as well as their dimensions confirms the negative effect of the digital divide. Our result remains stable when we use alternative measures of financial development and ICT indicators. Furthermore, we found that the digital divide between countries is also a severe handicap for the financial development of countries lagging behind. On the other hand, countries with a technological lead or a digital dividend have relatively developed financial systems. Some recommendations have been suggested to promote digital penetration in Africa, as well as to improve the receptivity and flexibility of African financial systems.     

数字普惠金融与商业信用二次配置

商业信用二次配置是企业充当信用中介,将银行信贷等资金通过商业信用的渠道为供应链的上下游中小企业提供融资支持,这会导致资金供给链延长,加剧了供应链系统性风险,而数字普惠金融发展的重点在于为中小企业提供直接融资,因此,其能否抑制商业信用二次配置,对于防范金融风险和促进实体经济稳定发展具有重要意义。本文深入探讨了数字普惠金融对商业信用二次配置的影响及其作用机制,研究发现:数字普惠金融有助于降低商业信用二次配置,有效减少了企业利用商业信用把长期借款资金进行二次配置的行为,而且该抑制作用对于外部融资能力较强的企业更加明显。机制检验表明,数字普惠金融通过减少上市公司超额银行信贷抑制商业信用二次配置。进一步分析显示,在外部市场竞争程度较低、内部风险较低、现金持有水平较高以及非高科技企业中,数字普惠金融对上市公司商业信用二次配置的抑制作用更加明显;而且,数字普惠金融在降低商业信用二次配置的同时,对于促进企业创新投入具有一定的积极作用。本文研究表明,数字普惠金融通过增加中小企业直接融资,减少了资金供给的中间环节,进而抑制大型企业充当"影子银行"进行资金的二次配置。     

Cashlessness in India: Vision,policy and practices

Over the past few years, an increasing convergence can be observed between international and Indian initiatives towards cashlessness, often involving a broad range of actors and influences. Despite this convergence, it is also clear that the conceptualization and implementation, or goals and outcomes of cashlessness can vary considerably, which indicates the need for a closer look at the Indian case. In this introductory note to the special issue on cashlessness in India, we outline the variety of institutions, stakeholders (regulatory, financial and technological actors), technologies and policies involved. As we have observed, digital payments and financial inclusion are two significant planks of cashlessness in India. Perhaps as a result, digital payments have been intentionally defined in a broad manner in India – ranging from anti-cash to less-cash and now contactless payments in the aftermath of Covid-19. Considering the variety of legal, economic, social and technological concerns involved, this special issue adopts 2 complementary foci to study cashlessness in India: technological visions and the systems undergirding it, and practices of end users. The special issue includes four papers. The first paper argues that the Digital India programme may lead to the commercialization of bias. The second paper historicizes the Indian demonetization of 2016 and examines its stated and unstated goals. The next paper provides a conceptual model on technology adoption in the context of digital payments. The final paper argues that users strategically switch between multiple payments media based on the context in which the transaction is taking place.     

Determinants of mobile broadband use in developing economies: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Broadband is seen as a vector of economic growth and social development. In the developing world, mobile technologies are widely adopted and mobile broadband is progressively rolled-out with high expectations on its impact on the countries’ development. We highlight what the determinants of mobile broadband use are in four Sub-Saharan countries. Using micro-level data coming from household surveys over 5 years, from 2013 to 2017, we show that SIM card ownership and being part of an online social community has a strong positive impact on mobile broadband use. We also highlight a positive correlation between digital inclusion and financial inclusion as mobile money users and bank account users are found to be more inclined to use mobile broadband. However, beyond apparent similarities, mobile broadband is used in different ways according to countries specificities. For instance, among the non-mobile owners in Nigeria, the unemployed are the most likely to use mobile broadband, most probably for job search practices, while it is rather used by students for information gathering in other countries. Finally we show that those excluded from mobile broadband use are the eldest, those with the lowest level of education, and women.     

Nexus between telecommunication infrastructures,economic growth and development in Africa: Panel vector autoregression (P-VAR) analysis

This study examines the causal-effect relationship between telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development in selected African countries. It further estimates the trivariate impacts of telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development in the region. The analysis considers a panel of forty-six African countries from 2000 to 2015. To measure economic growth, real gross domestic product serves as the proxy, while economic development is measured by the Human Development Index, and telecommunication infrastructures by a composite index of telecommunication computed from mobile line, fixed line and internet access penetration via principal component analysis (PCA). The empirical results suggest the existence of a bidirectional long-run relationship between telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development. The causality tests reveal that there is feedback causality between telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development. Telecommunication infrastructures promote economic growth and development in Africa and vice versa. Thus, there is need to promote inclusive and holistic policies that will enhance digital provide, economic growth and development simultaneously in Africa. An increase in telecommunication infrastructures will encourage aggregate output and standard of living to move in the same direction in Africa.     

Technological change,completeness of financing microstructures,and impact on well-being and income inequality

Financing microstructures are increasingly recognized as critical for promoting financial inclusion and improving overall well-being in developing countries. In practice, the digital transformation in finance has the potential to accelerate the optimal functioning of financing microstructures, including households' access to microfinance and microinsurance. Increased access to finance can lead to a reduction in income inequality and overall well-being for households. This paper investigates the impact of access to digital finance and financing microstructures on household well-being and the reduction of income inequality. To achieve this, we use a combination of propensity score matching, double difference, and smooth instrumental quantile regression as estimation methods with two periods of survey data. Specifically, the paper uses the FinScope consumer data (2016) and the Harmonized Living Standards Measurement Study (2018) from Togo in a comparative perspective. The results suggest that access to both digital finance and financing microstructure is a cultural game-changer that significantly improves overall household well-being and contributes to reducing income inequality.     

自助金融服务业务风险防控问题分析

随着中央文件关于消除农村地区空白点和中国人民银行关于开展银行卡助农取款等相关文件的下发,金融机构对农村地区金融服务重视程度明显提高,各金融机构纷纷进军农村市场。为节约成本,在固话终端基础上创新研发的自助金融服务业务,得到各金融机构的青睐,受到了客户的普遍欢迎。但由于自助金融服务业务尚在初期阶段,政策风险、现金风险、技术风险、管理风险和操作风险等均已成为自助金融服务业务推广的"拦路虎"。可以通过丰富产品功能,加强现金监管力度,强化科技支撑作用,规范内控管理体系,营造良好使用环境等手段,不断完善风险防范措施,建立风险报告制度,健全风险化解机制,从而推进自助金融服务业务的健康、持续开展。     

ICT interaction with trade,FDI and financial inclusion on inclusive growth in top African nations ranked by ICT development

The significance of ICT (information and communication technology) framework in efforts to attract foreign investment (FDI), sustain commerce, and boost financial inclusion for enhanced inclusive growth has revolutionized the global system recently. Furthermore, earlier researches on the connection between ICT and growth concentrated more on general expansion than on the kind of growth that is evenly distributed and has broader societal implications than merely growing the size of the overall economic pie. This study critically analyzes the connection between ICT diffusion and inclusive growth, considering the interactive impacts of trade openness, FDI, and financial inclusion on inclusive growth in top African nations ranked in terms of ICT development, so as to close the existing literature gap. An improved-GMM (generalized method of moments) technique, founded on panel data-set spanning the years 2000–2020, is used in the study. By employing PCA (principal component analysis) to measure inclusive growth, ICT diffusion, and financial inclusion indices, the study contributes to the body of prior research. The model also accounts for the heterogeneous impact of the interactive term between ICT diffusions and trade openness, FDI, and financial inclusion on inclusive growth. Overall, results indicate that while ICT diffusion, trade openness, FDI, and financial inclusion significantly and positively enhance inclusive growth at both the individual and interaction levels, inflation hinders it. The study suggests that policymakers should establish measures to advance ICT development, encourage trade openness, attract foreign direct investment, and improve financial inclusion because these measures have tendencies to support inclusive growth by opening up a number of opportunities.     

Female participation in African labor markets: The role of information and communication technologies

This article investigates the effects of information and communication technologies (ICT) on female labor force participation in a sample of 48 African countries. We specify and estimate linear regression and dynamic panel data models with fixed effects (FE) and system-generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) estimation over the period 2001–2017. The three main results are that ICT use (mobile phone and internet) significantly stimulates female labor force participation in Africa; this effect is enhanced by financial development and female education; the effect of ICT on female employment in Africa is strongest in the industrial sector. These results remain robust to the provision of social, cultural, and institutional variables.     

加快建设资源节约型社会促进经济增长方式转变

我国正处于建设资源节约型社会的关键阶段,由于受资源和环境的双重约束,必须要以节约资源利用总量和提高资源利用效率为手段,通过调整产业结构、技术创新、建立健全相关政策等促进经济增长方式的转变,构建节约型的产业结构、城市化模式和消费模式,着力完善能够反映资源稀缺程度、供求关系和环境破坏程度的外部成本价格机制,推动促进建设资源节约型社会的财政、税收政策和能源法规的制定和出台。     

ICT and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Transmission channels and effects

Despite significant progress in the empirical analysis of the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on economic growth, previous studies have not empirically examined the mechanisms by which ICT hinders or expands economic growth. The specific aim of the present study was to identify the transmission channels through which ICT contributes to economic growth. The examined channels included; openness, FDI inflows, education, domestic investment, political institution, and inflation. The study employed the panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) and system two step system GMM techniques on a sample of 44 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period 2004–2020. Using an ICT composite index, the causal mediation analysis identified that ICT contributed directly to growth, as proposed by the growth theories. Furthermore, the same analysis identified; domestic investment, openness, and education as crucial variables through which ICT penetration indirectly promoted per capita growth in the SSA region. The robustness of this result was verified using a variety of tools. The present findings suggested that the current efforts to expand ICTs in Sub-Saharan Africa should be continued since this sector has a considerable indirect impact on promoting economic growth.     

Mobile money,family assistance and welfare in Cameroon

This paper aims to investigate the effect of mobile money services on the welfare in Cameroon. It specifically verifies whether the welfare of people benefiting from family assistance is improved via the mobile money services offered by the two main operators in the country, namely: Orange and Mtn. The data used come from the « FinScope Consommateur Cameroun » Survey carried out in 2017 by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). Based on the propensity scores estimations, this study shows a positive and significant effect of mobile money on welfare. However, among the operators, Orange has a better impact compared to Mtn which does not present a significant effect. These results call on the authorities in charge of the development and implementation of financial inclusion policies to recognize the interest of digital financial services at the heart of financial inclusion strategies for the welfare of the poor.     

Switching mobile operators: Evidence about consumers’ behavior from a longitudinal survey

The rate at which consumers switch providers is a key indicator of the level of competition among mobile telephone operators. This paper uses a longitudinal survey of 4110 mobile users in Spain in 2015 and 2016 to analyze what drives consumers’ decisions to switch mobile operators. After controlling for a number of individual characteristics, including gender, age, education level and employment status, switching was found to be significantly less common among satisfied customers and those whose mobile service was bundled with fixed services. Moreover, the more complex the bundle was, the lower the rate of switching was. Considerable consumer inertia was also found: inattentive consumers and those who had not switched previously were much less likely to switch. The implications of these results for regulators and operators are discussed.     

投资项目财务评价内部收益率的比较研究

投资项目财务评价是可行性研究报告的核心内容之一,而内部收益率是判断项目财务可行性和预期盈利能力的主要指标。从内部收益率的经济含义入手,分析了项目投资内部收益率、项目资本金内部收益率和投资各方内部收益率3类内部收益率的适用条件和数量关系,认为项目投资内部收益率是项目融资前决策的首选指标,且只需计算所得税前指标;资本金内部收益率是项目融资决策分析的主要指标,当项目投资内部收益率大于银行利率时,资本金内部收益率大于项目投资内部收益率;当各股东（投资方）同股非同权或存在股权之外的收益分配时,需要计算投资各方内部收益率。     

Friends or Foes? Mobile money interaction with formal and informal finance

Access to formal financial services is a key determinant of financial inclusion and yet, informal mechanisms still dominate the financial system in developing countries. In this context, the purpose of our article is to investigate how the growing effort to harness mobile money designed for unbanked individuals may help to overcome barriers to access formal financial services. Using a unique dataset obtained from an individual-level survey conducted in Burkina Faso, we explore the interplay between mobile money innovation and pre-existing formal and informal financial instruments. Our main findings show that, overall there are no differences in the inclination of mobile money users and non-users to make deposits in formal or informal deposit instruments. However, a closer investigation reveals suggestive evidence that it may increase the probability of participants in informal mechanisms to make deposits in formal financial instruments, especially using a bank account. Moreover, considering disadvantaged groups, we find for women, irregular income and less educated individuals that mobile money may increase their probability to make deposits in a bank and/or credit union accounts. Our results are robust to using instrumental variables and propensity score matching techniques that mitigate the endogeneity problem. They also pass a number of robustness checks as well as considering an alternative dataset. Given the low access to formal financial services in developing countries, our findings taken together indicate how the increasing adoption of mobile money may act as a stepping-stone towards financial inclusion. (JEL Classification C83, D14, G21)     

数字经济对区域经济高质量发展的影响研究

推动数字经济发展,是我国在当下推动经济转型,促进高质量发展的重要战略。本文基于2012~2019年省级面板数据,构建双向固定效应模型,运用基准回归、异质性检验和分位数回归的方法进行实证研究发现,数字经济助推经济高质量发展的同时还存在地区差异,对西部影响最大,中部影响最小,而数字经济的发展水平又受到产业结构、技术创新等因素影响。因此,本文针对不同地区差异分别提出建议,从而促进持续更新发展理念,以创新驱动发展,优化产业结构为数字经济提供良好环境,以期推动数字经济建设发展。     

Maximizing the adoption of fixed number portability within the EU: An empirical analysis

Number portability (NP) is considered by the European Commission as a key measure for promoting competition within the telecom sector especially regarding network access infrastructure. However, NP requires several modifications to the network architecture and to the business processes of each operator that, depending on network size, may result in a significant financial cost. This is true for fixed networks in particular. Given the requirement for such an investment, National Regulatory Authorities (NRAs) desire a clear picture on what to expect, in terms of progress in access competition, when introducing fixed NP in their respective markets. The paper approaches this question by correlating several fixed telephony market indices related to access competition to the degree of success of fixed NP. Relevant analysis based on European Union member states’ data indicates that fixed NP does not significantly contribute to local loop unbundling (LLU) adoption in markets where there are other access technologies available. In these markets, access competition via these other technologies and fixed NP initially achieve similar penetration rates. Consequently, when access competition exceeds a certain threshold and given a reasonable pricing regime then fixed NP is further boosted to include broadband connections based on several broadband technologies/methodologies such as LLU and cable as well as existing narrowband access technologies (e.g. narrowband cable connections). In markets where LLU is the only alternative for access then the rate of Fixed NP adoption is directly correlated with the success of LLU. Consequently, these conclusions are considered within a high-level stepwise approach for NP implementation, which is based on the experience acquired from the respective Greek national project.     

我国应对气候变化面临的形势分析及战略选择建议

基于对我国应对气候变化面临形势和世界主要国家应对气候变化策略的分析,阐述了我国应当把低碳发展作为应对气候变化策略的原因,提出了我国促进低碳发展战略的指导思想、战略目标,以及建设节约型社会、构建低碳型国民经济体系、构建低碳型消费模式和构建符合低碳发展要求的政府宏观调控体系等战略重点,进一步分析提出了完善节能减排约束性指标体系、尽快攻克煤炭清洁发电关键技术、以发展循环经济为抓手促进绿色经济发展等战略措施选择。