金融发展的金融相关比率分析

戈德史密斯认为,金融相关比率有提高的趋势;金融相关比率达到一定的发展阶段该比率将趋于稳定.这两个结论只是一种经验的判断,戈德史密斯并没有进行数理的论证.本文在前人的基础上主要做了以下工作:(1)探索性地推导了金融相关比率的上界极值和收敛值,证明了戈德斯密斯的两点结论,提出了在金融发展过程中可能存在的阶段性;(2)通过回归分析得到我国金融相关比率受货币化比率和金融中介比率影响较大,而经济增长率和通货膨胀率对金融相关比率影响较弱;(3)对中国的金融相关比率进行了时间序列分析,并对我国长期的金融相关比率进行了预测.作者认为金融管理者可以通过有意识的调控货币化比率和金融中介比率,间接调控金融相关比率,来选择我国金融发展的稳定路径.     

The Validity of the Economic Value Added Approach: an Empirical Application

This study investigates the relative explanatory power of the Economic Value Added (EVA) model with respect to stock returns and firms' market value, compared to established accounting variables (e.g. net income, operating income), in the context of a small European developing market, namely the Athens Stock Exchange, in its first market‐wide application of the EVA measure. Relative information content tests reveal that net and operating income appear to be more value relevant than EVA. Additionally, incremental information tests suggest that EVA unique components add only marginally to the information content of accounting profit. Moreover, EVA does not appear to have a stronger correlation with firms' Market Value Added than the other variables, suggesting that – for our Greek dataset – EVA, even though useful as a performance evaluation tool, need not necessarily be more correlated with shareholder's value than established accounting variables.     

Economic information in Financial Ratio Analysis: A Note

The author would like to acknowledge comments and suggestions by Professor Bryan Carsberg, which have been very beneficial.     

对中国M2/GDP影响因素的实证分析

我国M2／GDP畸高的原因十分复杂。本从M2的构成入手，深入探讨了M2／GDP不断攀升的理论成因，最后建立误差修正模型，得出M2／GDP畸高的主要原因：经济的货币化，货币流通速度的下降，储蓄率居高不下以及国家的债务状况。     

An Empirical Analysis of Exchange Ratio Determination Models for Merger: A Note

This paper examines the empirical validity of two exchange ratio determination models for merger, the Larson and Gonedes (LG) PE model and the Yagil dividend growth model. These two models formulate exchange ratios as a function of a different factor: expected post-merger price-earnings multiple and expected post-merger dividend growth, respectively. While the LG model has been tested in previous studies, the Yagil model has yet been subject to empirical testing. This paper finds empirical support for the LG model but finds weak support for the Yagil model. In particular, the results show that the number of stock mergers that result in wealth gains for both acquiring and target firms and hence conform to the rationality assumption of each model is substantially greater for the LG model than for the Yagil model. Regression analysis provides confirmatory evidence on the empirical validity of the LG model that PE-related variables play a more significant role in explaining the actual exchange ratios than growth-related variables.     

An Empirical Analysis of Exchange Ratio Determination Models for Merger: A Note

This paper examines the empirical validity of two exchange ratio determination models for merger, the Larson and Gonedes (LG) PE model and the Yagil dividend growth model. These two models formulate exchange ratios as a function of a different factor: expected post-merger price-earnings multiple and expected post-merger dividend growth, respectively. While the LG model has been tested in previous studies, the Yagil model has yet been subject to empirical testing. This paper finds empirical support for the LG model but finds weak support for the Yagil model. In particular, the results show that the number of stock mergers that result in wealth gains for both acquiring and target firms and hence conform to the rationality assumption of each model is substantially greater for the LG model than for the Yagil model. Regression analysis provides confirmatory evidence on the empirical validity of the LG model that PE-related variables play a more significant role in explaining the actual exchange ratios than growth-related variables.     

《金融资产管理公司条》评析

《金融资产管理公司条例》是我国建立特殊法人制度的重要法律，其对金融资产管理公司依法监管和营运具有重要意义，同时也应看到和重视《条例》中的不足和问题。     

中国金融服务贸易国际竞争力的实证分析

随着世界服务贸易内部结构的日益优化,金融服务在服务贸易中的地位将日益增强.因此,加强对中国金融服务国际竞争力的研究具有比较重要的现实意义.文章通过将中国金融服务贸易竞争指数、Michaely指数等指标与世界主要金融服务大国进行比较,从而对中国金融服务国际竞争力进行测度.研究发现,中国金融服务进出口在中国服务贸易进出口中的比重非常低.无论是从贸易竞争指数还是从Michaelv指数来看,中国金融服务的国际竞争力都非常弱,中国金融服务的发展很不平稳.     

对我国金融效率的实证分析

改革以来,中国金融发展呈现出“高增长 ,低效率“的特点.运用数据包络( DEA)分析方法对我国 1991-2002年的金融效率的分析结果表明,我国金融体系在动员储蓄方面是有效的,但投资转化率以及资源配置效率低下,如何提高金融效率已成为中国金融发展和经济增长的关键.     

美国金融危机:一个均衡分析

供求均衡是一国乃至世界经济稳定发展的基本命题。过度消费使得美国经济失衡。但是在经济全球化背景下,美元的国际货币地位维系着美国经济社会的过度消费,并进一步强化美国的过度消费。由于美元滥发及受到世界经济变化的影响,强势美元逐渐走弱,导致本已失衡的美国经济转化为次贷危机,进而演变为金融危机。     

金融危机传染实证研究

本文在梳理金融危机传染的定义,分析金融危机传染的机理,介绍Copula函数的金融危机传染检验方法的基础上,通过运用多种静态Copula和动态Copula函数对金融危机传染进行了分析。主要结论包括三个方面：一是金融危机时期,中国股市下跌与美国股市下跌在一定程度上存在联动,但中国股市的波动也有一定独立性;二是全球金融危机后,国内股市和债市呈现显著负相关性关系;三是从国内金融机构看,不论是否处于危机期间,国有商业银行之间、国有商业银行与中小型银行之间的风险传染并不明显,中小型银行之间风险传染较强,但不是由金融危机引起的,而是由其他因素导致。     

传统农区金融相关率与金融排斥问题研究——以河南省为例

运用金融资产相关率(FIR)指标衡量传统农区金融深化的绩效,以河南省为例考察农村经济增长和农村金融相关率之间的关系,并运用ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果检验对农村经济增长和农村金融相关率的各项指标进行分析。结果显示,金融发展是农村经济增长的正相关因素,但与之同时,传统农区的"金融压抑"问题突出,由此引发的金融排斥现象依然是阻碍传统农区金融体系健康发展的重要因素,为此,健全农村政策性金融体系激励农村内生金融体系的创新尤为重要。     

后危机时代金融消费者法律保护的审视及其改进

金融危机后,金融消费者保护成为各国金融监管的一个重点.在我国金融业不断壮大发展的同时,存在着金融市场严重信息不对称、金融机构实质垄断、交易地位不平衡的问题,而法律制度与相关机构设置未满足实际需求,需要将树立金融消费者利益维护观念、公法与私法并济、实体法与程序法并重、建立普惠式金融消费保护体系作为金融消费者权益法律保护的实现路径,促进金融体系持续健康发展.     

中国商业银行治理机制有效性的实证分析

本文利用全国52家商业银行2007年和2008年的年报作为数据来源,对我国商业银行的公司治理机制及其有效性进行了实证分析.研究发现,集中型股权结构显著地降低了银行绩效ROA、ROE,增加了银行的风险,但对EVA没有显著影响.职工监事数量的增加明显提高银行绩效,降低风险,提高了银行效率.大股东的国有性质对ROA和ROE产生了正向影响,但董事会规模有负向影响,独立董事制度对银行绩效没有显著影响,但显著地降低了银行的风险.     

Islamic Banks and Financial Stability: An Empirical Analysis

The relative financial strength of Islamic banks is assessed empirically based on evidence covering individual Islamic and commercial banks in 19 banking systems with a substantial presence of Islamic banking. We find that (a) small Islamic banks tend to be financially stronger than small commercial banks; (b) large commercial banks tend to be financially stronger than large Islamic banks; and (c) small Islamic banks tend to be financially stronger than large Islamic banks, which may reflect challenges of credit risk management in large Islamic banks. We also find that the market share of Islamic banks does not have a significant impact on the financial strength of other banks.     

Real Flexibility and Financial Structure: An Empirical Analysis

I examine the empirical relation between real flexibility andfinancial structure. I test whether real flexibility increasesdebt capacity by lowering default risk and making assets moremarketable or decreases debt capacity by facilitating risk shiftingand asset substitution. I measure real flexibility as the sensitivityof marginal production and investment decisions to variationsin the economic environment. I find that financial leverageis negatively related to production flexibility but positivelyrelated to investment flexibility. This split in results suggeststhat although asset substitution facilitated by investment flexibilitycan be prevented contractually, risk shifting facilitated byproduction flexibility is intractable.