Outsourcing versus joint venture from vendor’s perspective

Even though many studies have discussed outsourcing contracts from the client’s perspective, little research has been done from the vendor’s perspective. In this paper, we consider a vendor’s outsourcing contract decision-making process, during which the market price and the vendor’s operation cost are uncertain. This paper develops real option models to investigate whether a vendor firm should sign an outsourcing contract from its client or establish a joint venture with this client. Our results show that, while the feasibility of an outsourcing contract to the vendor increases with a higher contract price offered by the client, the feasibility of a joint venture depends on market conditions. We also find that there are loss-by-acceptance regions, in which either an outsourcing or a joint venture contract is currently feasible to start, but a vendor may sustain a loss by accepting such a contract.     

The assignment of call option rights between partners in international joint ventures

We examine call option rights as a contractual clause in international joint ventures (IJVs) and propose that the assignment of the call option right in an IJV is determined by certain ex ante asymmetries between the partners. Results show that between the two partners in an IJV, the firm with greater complementarity with the venture and greater prior IJV experience is more likely to hold the call option right; in addition, the firm's contractual choice on the call option right and its ownership choice on a greater initial equity stake are substitutive. Our focus on explicit call options advances the real options theory of collaborative agreements, and our results also highlight that option rights be considered an important part of alliance design. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diagnosing Unforeseeable Uncertainty in a New Venture*

New ventures often do not correctly foresee real market opportunities or the best way to address them. How to cope with unforeseen, unpredictable factors, also referred to as unknown unknowns, is critical for new ventures. Findings in the fields of innovation and project management have shown that dealing with the unpredictable requires management approaches different from those used for classical plan‐and‐achieve‐the‐target projects. Management approaches for novel initiatives include a combination of trial‐and‐error learning (i.e., flexible redefinition of the new venture business model as new information emerges) and selectionism (i.e., running multiple parallel trials and choosing the best performing approach ex post). The management approach must be chosen when the venture is set up. This requires a venture management team to diagnose at the outset whether unknown unknowns are present (or possible), although unknown unknowns cannot be identified initially by definition because they emerge over time. Anecdotal testimony from experienced venture managers and project managers suggests they have a feeling for where their knowledge is limited. However, such a claim is controversial. Some researchers think the concept of diagnosing unforeseeable influence factors is an oxymoron. Thus, the research question in this article is this: How can unforeseeable influence factors in a new venture be diagnosed at the outset? Research to date has insufficiently addressed the a priori identification of the type of uncertainty faced by a new venture. Based on models from decision theory, this article suggests dividing the overall problem of structuring the venture into subproblems for which the management team can identify knowledge gaps. Using a case study, the article describes how knowledge gaps were identified for the subareas of a new venture in a real situation and how this diagnosis was used to correctly identify the areas where unknown unknowns lurk. These areas were managed in a different way (i.e., with learning and experimentation) than the other subproblems (i.e., with targets and deadlines). As a result, the venture could successfully respond to unforeseeable events. The results of this study suggest that a decomposition of the overall venture management problem into subproblems is feasible and natural to managers, that a qualitative assessment of knowledge gaps and vulnerability to unknown unknowns is possible, and that a structured, process‐like approach can be used to identify subproblems, to determine their uncertainty profiles, and to update the uncertainty profiles. These results are immediately useful to venture management and venture capitalists in setting up the venture's structure for effective response to uncertainty. The results advance research about uncertainty management by offering a systematic set of questions for the diagnosis of unknown unknowns before they can be formally described. The usefulness of this process can be tested further in more formal empirical research.     

Do multiple parents help or hinder international joint venture performance? The mediating roles of contract completeness and partner cooperation

We develop a mediation model in which the number of partners in a joint venture affects venture performance through contract completeness and partner cooperation. In a sample of 224 international joint ventures, we find that the number of partners is negatively related to venture contract completeness and partner cooperation, both of which are positively related to joint venture performance. The number of partners is inversely related to joint venture performance and the relationship is mediated by contract completeness and partner cooperation. We discuss theoretical and managerial implications for joint venture research and practice. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

JOINT VENTURE BUY‐OUTS UNDER UNCERTAINTY*

This paper provides a theory of joint venture buy‐outs in the presence of demand uncertainty. In an infinite horizon framework with demand uncertainty, we consider a foreign firm's decision on whether to form a joint venture or to open a fully owned subsidiary. Without the possibility of future share adjustment, the foreign firm enters the market through a joint venture if the host‐country firm helps to reduce the uncertainty significantly. Consequently, the firm enters at an earlier point in time compared to the situation in which opening a fully owned subsidiary is the only option to the firm. The possibility of future share adjustment in the joint venture further increases the incentive to speed up foreign investment. Although the possibility of share adjustment results in a joint venture buy‐out and can reduce the future profits of the host‐country firm, it may increase host‐country welfare by attracting foreign investment at an earlier point in time. We show the implications of learning in the joint venture.     

中外合资项目经济评价的主要特点

中外合资项目是我国吸引外资的一种重要方式，中外合资项目的经济评价工作无论在深度或广度、花费的人力和物力方面，一般都大于非合资项目，特别在确定目标市场，加强市场调研、确定基本参数，分析项目特点、确定合理的价格体系，寻找合适的预测价格、确定基本收益率、确定融资方案，合理安排资金诸方面均有其独到之处，值得借鉴。     

Acquiring knowledge by foreign partners from international joint ventures in a transition economy: learning‐by‐doing and learning myopia

This paper proposes and tests a model of how firms acquire knowledge from their international joint venturing experience. Based on survey responses from 73 Singapore and 89 Hong Kong firms with respect to their joint ventures set up in China, the results indicate that both overseeing effort and management involvement are significant channels of knowledge acquisition. The former channel is more important for firms with a great deal of operational experience in China and for parents of older joint ventures. This finding indicates that firms improve their skills of knowledge acquisition through learning‐by‐doing. Moreover, the strategic importance of the venture concerned, instead of the learning intent of the parent, is the driving force behind the allocation of resources to the two channels. This implies that firms mainly learn through managing their key joint ventures. Since a venture that provides novel and fruitful learning experience may not, and need not, be an operation of great strategic importance, this finding suggests the existence of learning myopia. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analyzing operational real options in metal mining investments with a system dynamic model

This article presents a detailed system dynamic (SD) model of a metal mining investment that is usable in ex-ante profitability and operations management analysis. We show how the SD model can be used to analyze the profitability effect of three operational real options: the option to temporarily close production, the option to abandon production, and the option to increase production through cutoff grade change. The SD model allows for intuitive modeling of the multiple interactive real options and arriving at results that are difficult, or impossible, to reach with commonly used spreadsheet software. We also analyze the effect of mining project debt ratio to the project value and show that correctly choosing the debt ratio affects project profitability. The effect on the project value of using three different future metal price scenarios with two different stochastic processes is illustrated to highlight the importance of correct process selection in modeling future metal price paths. A realistic case of a high-cost nickel (Ni) metal mine is used as a basis for the presented numerical illustration of the model.     

The role of fairness in alliance formation

We report on data from a revelatory qualitative case study of a failed attempt to form an international joint venture (IJV) agreement. We analyze issues related to distributive, procedural, interpersonal, and informational fairness and the roles of their occurrence in the course of the formation stage of an IJV. We find that perceptions of fairness types shape the partners' decision making logics (a property rights logic, a control rights logic, and a relational quality logic), which in turn influence the partners' evaluations of efficiency and equity of the proposed alliance and their decision on whether or not to form it. We develop propositions around this argument. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calls on high-technology: Japanese exploration of venture capital investments in the United States

The strategic logic of Japanese high-technology venture capital investment reveals the existence of an implicit call option, or ‘shadow option’, on new technology. This option is exercised by further investment in product development, manufacturing and distribution. The process is described with reference to a comparative study of Japanese and U.S. venture capital firms. Similarities and differences between the two groups are reported, and a conceptual model of Japanese option strategy is formulated. The implications for our understanding of Japanese strategy and for strategic management theory are discussed.     

Imitative innovation and international joint ventures: a dynamic analysis

In this paper we deal with some dynamic issues of international joint venture in the context of a developing country. We provide a rationale for international joint venture formation, as well as its subsequent instability, where instability is interpreted as payoff readjustments between the partners in the venture. Although the joint venture is formed in response to government restrictions on foreign equity holdings in the first period, its subsequent instability is caused by both the change in government policy, as well as the outcome of imitative technological innovation undertaken by the host partner. It is also shown that uncertainty about the government policy in the second period plays an important role in the formation of joint venture in the first period.     

Mapping network champion behavior in B2B electronic venturing

This study examines the concept of a new venture, B2B e-market in the light of participants who are involved in its innovation and diffusion processes. Our assessment results in the development of two key working propositions. The first proposition attempts to explain the relationship of the participants in the network and their contribution to innovation and diffusion processes over time. The second proposition attempts to explain how network champions (NC) contribute by bringing suppliers and buyers together in an electronic marketplace over time. In particular, this research adds to the industrial marketing literature by applying a case research method that is particularly useful for operationalizing theory development in business-to-business environments.     

Developing logistics value propositions: Drawing Insights from a distributed manufacturing solution

With a focus on supply chains as ecosystems of service exchange, our paper aims to explore how value propositions are developed and evolve via combinations of service innovation. A single longitudinal case study is presented. The units of analysis are different projects along a logistics service provider (LSP)’s innovation journey. The study explores how the case company identified innovation in logistics as a gap and developed a distributed manufacturing strategy with a unique business model involving a reallocation of production functions across a global supply network. Our contribution is two-fold. In terms of theory, we adopt a service-dominant logic perspective to investigate how companies' value propositions evolve over time. In terms of managerial contributions, our paper provides insights into how service providers can strategically integrate their resources with service ecosystem partners to provide competitive business propositions.     

企业风险管控审计方略

以中外合资企业风险管控审计为例,对中外合资企业存在的重大风险点进行探索与研究,着重对外方投资者采用以合资为名,而不考虑合资企业是否亏损,仅以卖设备和原材料、控制工厂的采购与销售,中方变相成为其加工厂,通过在合资企业外部,实现其利润的做法,致使国有资产存在重大合资风险的问题进行了剖析。提示了企业进行风险管控审计的重要性和紧迫性,在此基础上探索了企业风险管控审计的方法、内容、对策。     

不可再生资源消耗与内生经济增长：模型与实证

随着中国经济的高速增长，资源对增长的约束日益突出，资源稀缺与巨大需求之间 的矛盾使得增长与资源的关系值得关注。本文在Groth和Schou模型基础上扩展基于不可再生 资源①的内生增长模型，并利用中国1981～2009年数据实证检验持续增长所需要的条件， 最后给出有关资源利用的政策建议.     

Optimal exploration investments under price and geological‐technical uncertainty: a real options model

This article develops a real options model for valuing natural resource exploration investments (e.g. oil or copper) when there is joint price and geological‐technical uncertainty. After a successful several‐stage exploration phase, there is a development investment and an extraction phase. All phases are optimized contingent on price and geological‐technical uncertainty.
Several real options are considered. There are flexible investment schedules for all exploration stages and a timing option for the development investment. Once the mine is developed, there are closure, opening and abandonment options for the extraction phase. Our model maintains a relatively simple valuation structure by collapsing price and geological‐technical uncertainty into a one‐factor model.
We apply the model to a copper exploration prospect and find that a significant fraction of total project value is due to the operational, development and exploration options available to project managers.     

A Note on Endogenous Spillovers in a Non-Tournament R & D Duopoly

The paper analyzes a simple non-tournament model of R & D where firms are engaged in cost-reducing innovation. It is shown that when spillovers of information are treated as endogenous firms never disclose any of their information when choosing their R & D non-cooperatively. Under cooperative R & D, firms will always choose to fully share their information, i.e., a research joint venture will operate with a maximal spillover value.     

The Urban Homeowner's Residential Location Decision in an Asset-Pricing Context

Homeowners determine the maximum site bid price for homeowner housing within a two-period expected-utility model. The bid price is a function of the expected cash flows to sites, the quantity of housing consumed and a relocation option. The bid price is derived in the general case as a function of the homeowner's portfolio risk, including the total risk to the site, and the market price of risk. The bid price is derived under a spatial measure as a function of distance from an arbitrary location. Specific results are obtained when the household experiences log-linear utility for housing and other goods. Use of the market price of risk simplifies analytical solutions to the bid price equation.     

Pre-emptive patenting,joint ventures,and the persistence of oligopoly

Gilbert and Newbery (1982) have examined pre-emptive patenting and the persistence of monopoly. The present paper considers pre-emptive patenting when there are several incumbent firms, rather than just one. It is shown why the incumbent oligopolists, behaving non-cooperatively, might fail to deter entry. This suggests that a joint venture in R and D might be a useful entry-deterring device insofar as it pools the incumbents' incentives to prevent entry. This is indeed the case for ‘small’ innovations, but for ‘large’ innovations the formation of a joint venture weakens the incumbents' incentive to innovate by removing the competitive stimulus between them.     

Price dispersion in a market with advance-purchases

This paper examines price discrimination in a market where consumers learn their preferences over time. The products are perfect substitutesex ante, but there is horizontal differentiationex post. Air travel provides one example of such a market. In equilibrium, there is more price discrimination under duopoly than under monopoly, which is consistent with recent empirical evidence from the U.S. airline industry.I am grateful to Tom Holmes for many discussions on related topics.