基于新浪微博的金融谣言识别方法探索

互联网的普及加快了信息传播的速度,扩大了传播范围。然而,不法分子利用网络空间肆意散布各类谣言,尤其是金融领域。目前世界各国纷纷着眼于网络谣言的治理,制定相关的法律法规。国内金融谣言案件不乏有之,国家正积极采取措施,严厉打击扰乱金融秩序的犯罪行为。根据《中国社会舆情年度报告(2013)》统计,2012年所有舆情事件的首发主题中,32.1%来源于微博。新浪微博作为国内最大的开放式社交媒体,具有数据分享及时、数据量大,形式多元化等优势,可为金融行业舆情检测提供通道。基于上述基础,笔者进行了基于新浪微博的金融谣言识别方法的探索。     

社交网站对金融业发展趋势的影响

21世纪初,马云就预言,“网络将是金融未来的一种方式和一个桥梁。”如今,以互联网为代表的现代信息科技已经对现有的金融模式产生根本影响。本文重点研究社交网站对金融业发展趋势的影响,为金融业更好地利用社交网站推动自身发展提供借鉴意义。     

互联网金融及风险防范的国际借鉴

以互联网为代表的现代信息科技．特别是移动支付、社交网络,搜索引擎和云计算等,正对传统金融模式产生根本影响。     

社交媒体、公司传闻与股价冲击——来自东方财富股吧论坛的经验证据

社交媒体是把双刃剑,在提高资本市场信息效率的同时也可能加速虚假信息传播和扩散,加剧股票价格震荡。基于东方财富股吧论坛数据,本文研究社交媒体在公司传闻传播过程的作用。研究发现,股吧论坛中的投资者互动会加剧公司传闻对股价的冲击。对于信息不对称较高、机构持股比例较低的公司,股吧互动加剧公司传闻对股价的冲击作用更强;2013年互联网信息环境整治后,股吧互动引发的负面效应得以削弱;此外,当公司传闻的澄清速度偏慢、或“传闻”并非虚假信息时,股吧互动加剧公司传闻对股价冲击的效应更强。进一步地,股吧互动引起了投资者对公司传闻更高的关注,表现为投资者针对传闻公司的股票交易量显著增加;同时股吧互动放大了公司传闻对投资者情绪的影响,进一步加剧了传闻对股价的冲击。本文研究表明,社交媒体上的投资者互动可能加速公司传闻的传播,放大投资者情绪,不利于资本市场的稳定发展。     

商业银行社交金融发展思路与策略

社交金融因社交网络的迅速发展应运而生,它立足朋友圈、社交圈,通过微信、微博等展开“病毒式”传播,具有精准快速营销、应用场景融入生活等独特优势,不仅极大提升了金融业务推广速度,同时依托社交关系强化了信用约束效应,确保金融交易的安全性.通过介绍社交金融的起源与发展,梳理了社交金融的特点与优势,提出了我国商业银行发展社交金融的思路与策略.     

互联网社交与个人捐赠——基于CFPS微观调查数据的实证研究

互联网的迅猛发展带来了线上社交形式，同时为我国慈善事业提供了新的平台和增长点，但是鲜有文献研究二者的关系。本文利用中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）2018年的微观调查数据研究了互联网社交对个人捐赠行为的影响，结果表明互联网社交显著促进了个人捐赠，特别是通过腾讯公益、轻松筹等平台进行的线上捐赠。一方面，互联网社交会通过改善人际关系和扩大社会网络从而提升个人的捐赠水平。另一方面，过度进行互联网社交也会带来降低网络社交质量和个体自我认知的负面影响，从而抑制个人捐赠的概率和捐赠金额。但综合来看，高频互联网社交对个人捐赠行为的总效应为正。同时，互联网社交对不同特征人群的影响存在异质性。文章的结论在工具变量、非线性模型（Probit,Heckman两步法和Tobit）的估计下均稳健。本文实证验证了互联网社交对我国个人捐赠的促进作用，为共同富裕背景下我国慈善事业的发展路径提供了参考依据。     

公共管理语境下网络舆情的时代特征

网络技术的飞速发展,使得上网变得更加方便、快捷,越来越多的人们开始聚集在网络这一虚拟的空间,讨论公共话题和交流内心思想.网络舆论作为一种新的社会现象,成为各路学者们的研究对象.从公共管理的角度而言,研究网络舆情的时代特征有助于我们更加充分的认识和把握网络舆情的规律,更好地服务于政府决策.     

承销商声誉、媒体关注与IPO首日抑价

本文以2006—2014年上市的1107家A股IPO公司为样本,研究了承销商声誉对公司媒体报道、进而对IPO首日抑价的影响。研究发现:(1)媒体关注与IPO首日抑价正相关;(2)承销商通过媒体报道这一中间传导环节提高新股首日抑价;(3)IPO承销商声誉有助于公司获得更高的媒体关注,特别是来自地方性媒体的关注,2009年6月IPO发行政策改革后,承销商声誉对媒体关注影响增强。本研究有助于进一步揭示并理解金融中介对资产定价影响的内在机理。     

P2P网络借贷的羊群行为及其信息驱动

我国互联网金融投资者面临的骗局和连锁风险,是否是互联网金融羊群行为的必然结果呢?如何建构互联网金融的监管制度,才能在不影响互联网金融融资效率前提下降低互联网金融的风险呢?在改进的MNL模型基础上,通过研究我国P2P网络借贷羊群行为的性质及其背后的信息驱动,回答上述问题。研究结果显示,我国P2P网络借贷市场上存在着理性的羊群行为;其背后的信息驱动因素依次为平台信息、项目信息和借款人信息。因此,我国网络借贷市场不会由于投资者羊群行为引发市场风险,互联网金融监管机制的重点在于,强化投资者保护、完善和统一P2P网络借贷平台的信用评估和披露制度。     

大型科技公司的金融服务

<正>大型科技公司可以依据从其他业务获得的消费者偏好数据,向无法获得传统贷款的客户提供金融服务,这种金融深化带来的经济和社会效益是显著的大型科技公司带来的挑战科学技术发展对全球金融服务行业产生了深远影响。社会各界普遍认为,大型科技公司就是具备庞大客户体系的大型科技企业集团,核心业务涵盖社交媒体、通信、互联网搜索和电子商务等领域。大型科技公司的商业模式包含三项因素:根据收集的消费者数据,进一步掌握客户需求;运用先进算法,深入挖掘客户需求;依赖网络效应,对广大消费者群体进行筛选。在网络效应的推动之下,大型科技公司的用户互动、用户活动和数据产量大幅增加,向金融服务领域的扩张极为迅速。     

社会互动、相对财富关注及股市参与

已有的研究表明,社会互动推动了家庭的股市参与。依据社会互动推动家庭股市参与不同机制的理论基础和预测,本文对不同的具体机制进行了研究,我们发现在局部品支出比例高、收入分布集中度高的区(村),社会互动推动股市参与的作用更显著,这与外部习惯模型及相对财富关注模型的理论预测一致,事前对局部稀缺品的关注使得家庭的股市参与存在外部性。社会互动推动股市参与其他机制的理论预测则未得到数据的支持。     

我国农村政策性金融发展的社会网络因素分析

农村政策性金融发展不仅需要从经济有效性视角进行一般分析,还需要从社会合理性视角和经济社会学视角进行探索研究。本文采取跨学科交叉性研究方法,运用新经济社会学相关理论和方法,将农村政策性金融的运行和发展置于其所在的社会网络背景之中,从而在社会网络的制约与影响中进行研究。本文认为农村社会金融网络场域为农村政策性金融发展提供了基本的载体,农村政策性金融应该以农村弱势群体为服务对象;嵌于社会网络中的社会资本需求对农村政策性金融发展具有间接的拉动作用,并提出了构建良性互动、充分发挥农村政策性金融功能的途径和建议。     

长三角城市群经济联系网络结构研究——基于社会网络视角的分析

作为中国经济活动最活跃的地区之一,长三角城市群网络化发展将是长三角城市区域今后发展的主要特征。本文基于社会网络分析方法,借鉴城市引力模型,以长三角城市群16个中心城市间的经济联系为例,对长三角城市群网络的基本形式、结构属性和网络微观特征进行实证分析。研究结果显示,长三角城市群经济关联网具备了中等网络规模,但内部各城市间联系不均衡性特征明显,多中心网络协同发展格局已初步形成。     

智慧城市中社交网络的优化设计

随着十八大中建设智慧城市的目标提出,各个地市相继提出了建设智慧城市的战略举措,作为其核心,网络的发展也得到了很大提升,其中社交网络也要进行优化,本文就智慧城市中的社交网络优化做了简要分析。     

区域高新技术产业集群创新网络结构特征研究——基于湖南省数据

依据2009-2018年湖南省14个市州数据,运用社会网络分析法和修正的引力模型,考量湖南省高新技术产业集群创新网络结构特征.结果表明:湖南省高新技术产业集群创新网络密度逐年增加且增幅不断扩大,凝聚子群空间结构呈现"东高西低"的阶梯式分布特征,凝聚子群Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ分别主要来源于长株潭地区、洞庭湖地区和湘南地区、大湘西地区;市州间高新技术产业集聚创新联系不断加强,临近地域指向性与板块指向性并存,且关联方向日趋明显;各市州在高新技术产业集群创新网络中所处地位和拥有权力具有差异性,其中长沙市的净辐射量为正值,为湖南省高新技术产业集群创新网络的主要辐射源.     

Information content, audit reports and going-concern: an Australian study

Research conducted on the information content of going concern ‘modified’ reports in the USA and UK indicates that a modified audit report does not appear to have information content to users if the going concern contingency is disclosed in the notes to the financial statements. In the present study, we provide evidence from Australia. We examine whether modification/qualification by an auditor in Australia (an ‘Emphasis of Matter’ and an ‘Except for’ report, respectively) has information content to a user. The results indicate that for a company in a state of financial distress, the modification, in either form, does not appear to significantly enhance either perceptions of risk or decision-making.     

Explaining auditors’ propensity to issue going‐concern opinions in Australia after the global financial crisis

We document an increase in auditors issuing going‐concern opinions in Australia over a prolonged period since the Global Financial Crisis that is not fully explained by changes in client risk. Overall, our evidence is consistent with auditors reporting more conservatively with the increased level of scrutiny from Australian Securities and Investments Commission inspections and other increased regulation, and in particular, the negative attention following the 2011–2012 inspections. As a result, auditor reports with reference to going‐concern issues have become less informative regarding future corporate failure.     

The civil justice system and going concern audit reports: Comments on “Auditors’ decision-making under going concern uncertainties in low litigation risk environments: Evidence from Hong Kong”

Lam and Mensah [Lam, K., Mensah, Y.M., 2006. Auditors’ decision-making under going concern uncertainties in low litigation risk environments: Evidence from Hong Kong. J. Account. Public Pol. 25 (6), this issue] provide some valuable insight on auditors’ choice of going concern audit reports in an environment where the civil justice system affords, from the standpoint of the plaintiff, fewer remedies and is more difficult to file a complaint than it is in the US. Hence, from the auditor’s standpoint, this environment can appropriately be described as a “low litigation risk environment”. In this comment, I first question whether a disclaimer of an opinion is any indication of either a quality audit or professionalism. Secondly, three alternative explanations for the empirical regularities are discussed. The Gatekeeper Story suggests auditors are simply not willing to risk reducing their reputational capital by acquiescing to clients that are not likely to survive their own financial distress. The Herding Story suggests that, when auditors are faced with uncertainties or a gap in the authoritative literature, auditors will herd together to form a common response that mimic one-another. The Value of Incumbency Story holds that as the value of incumbency declines with the client’s inability to survive, auditors will have fewer incentives to incur the incremental costs to gather sufficient competent evidential matter necessary to support an unqualified opinion.     

A re-evaluation of auditors’ opinions versus statistical models in bankruptcy prediction

Existent empirical evidence on the relative performance of auditors’ going concern opinions versus statistical models in predicting bankruptcy is mixed. This study attempts to add new reliable evidence on this important issue by conducting the comparison based upon an improved statistical model. The improved statistical model incorporates some new developments advocated by recent bankruptcy prediction research (e.g., Shumway, 2001). First, the following non-traditional variables are added: a composite measure of financial distress, industry failure rate, abnormal stock returns, and market capitalization. Secondly, a hazard model is employed. The prediction ability of the hazard model with incorporation of non-financial-ratio variables is superior to that of auditors’ going concern opinions in the holdout sample. This suggests that a well-developed statistical model could serve as a decision aid for auditors to better make going-concern judgments. Further analyses reveal some evidence that industry failure rate does not have a significant impact upon auditors’ going concern judgments as it should be; auditors could improve their going concern judgments by considering industry-level information in addition to firm-specific information. Finally, we find that auditors’ opinions do have incremental contribution beyond stock-market information and industry failure rate in predicting bankruptcy.

Costs Associated With Going-Concern-Modified Audit Opinions: An Analysis of the Australian Audit Market

This article examines the potential costs to Australian auditors and their clients from the issuance of first-time going-concern-modified audit opinions. We examine the population of Australian companies receiving a first-time going-concern-modified audit opinion during the period 1994–97 and a matched sample of financially distressed firms receiving a clean audit opinion. Results indicate that auditor switching is positively associated with receipt of a going-concern-modified opinion. However, we find no empirical evidence that there is a self-fulfilling prophecy of increased probability of company failure following the issuance of a going-concern-modified opinion for the Australian companies in our study. Our analyses of lost audit fees indicate that auditors issuing first-time going-concern-modified audit opinions lost proportionately more fees by losing clients (through switching or company failure) than firms not issuing a going-concern-modified opinion to financially stressed clients.