Equilibrium and efficiency of exchange rates in a silver-based monetary system—the cases of India and Iran

This paper examines the issue of equilibrium and efficiency of exchange rates in a silver-based monetary system during nineteenth century India and Iran. The results based on co-integration tests indicate a reliable long-run relationship between the metallic value and the exchange value of currencies in a silver-based monetary standard. Our results also validate the necessary and sufficient conditions of the efficient market hypothesis.     

Virtual Currencies,the Money Market,and Monetary Policy

Virtual currencies are in vogue mainly due to two factors. First, as a protest against authority-driven monetary policy decisions and second, as alternatives to deficits in some monetary systems arising out of political instability or other causes. Assuming that virtual currencies indeed (partially) replace national currencies as payment vehicles, we attempt, in this article, to integrate the virtual currency supply and demand into the Keynesian money market framework. This article presents a few results for the central banks and outlines problems that may result for monetary policy formulation. Since this is the first such attempt to model a national money market as a combination of nationally-issued currency and globally-issued virtual currency, certain simplistic assumptions have been made. Nevertheless, the model offers directions on the impact of virtual currencies on the monetary system and the national money market. Additionally, the paper integrates the official standpoints of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on this topic.     

American Silver Inflow and the Price Revolution in Qing China

Employing panel data from the Northern China Plain for the period 1736–1911, this paper tests the so‐called price revolution hypothesis. It finds that American silver inflow played an important role in raising grain prices when factors such as weather and population are controlled. This role is verified in two dimensions: the quantity dimension of American silver inflow into China; the value dimension of silver relative to copper coin and to gold. This paper provides the first econometric test of the so‐called price revolution hypothesis in the 18th and 19th century China and deepens our understanding of the role of American silver inflow in late imperial times of China.     

关于汇率理论与汇率政策研究的思考

汇率的决定与外汇市场供求、经常账户平衡、央行货币政策、相关资产价格、经济基本面、国民收入及国际收支账户等有着直接的或间接的关系。完善人民币汇率形成机制,要从外汇市场拓展到本外币政策深层次协调,从涉外经济拓展到内外经济协调发展,同时在新的汇率形成机制下对国际货币体系和主要货币的变化趋势进行系统的监测预测和分析研究。     

中国流动性过剩应对策略——基于2000—2007年数据的研究

进入21世纪,全球性的货币扩张带来了全球性的流动性过剩,中国因储蓄倾向较高、外汇管理体制、经济的高速增长、金融产品供给的不足和国际资本的不断进入导致了较为严重的流动性过剩。对此应采取扩大消费需求,大力发展中国的资本市场,改革中国外汇储备管理体制、汇率体制及提高货币政策的有效性等措施。     

固定汇率、浮动汇率下中国经济政策——人民币升值对我国进出口贸易的影响分析

在当前国内外经济环境不佳的情况下,中美两国就人民币汇率升值问题争议不断。1994年以来中国实行人民币汇率制度改革,在人民币持续升值情况下,并未缓解中美贸易不平衡和减少美国的贸易逆差,中央政府基于国家发展水平就未来货币政策的选择上处于两难境地,期望建立健全"参考一篮子货币进行调节,以市场供求为基础的、有管理的浮动汇率"机制,保持人民币汇率相对稳定,减轻人民币升值对中国经济增长的影响。     

A research on China’s long-term rice prices (1644–2000)

Drawing on the research achievements on rice prices made in the Qing Dynasty, the Republic of China, and New China, this paper arranges, estimates and observes the statistical data on rice prices in the country over the past three-and-a-half centuries. This paper includes the following four aspects: first of all, it assembles and reorganizes the original data of rice market prices marked in various forms of money in different historical periods since the Qing Dynasty; then it converts the original data of rice prices into the nominal rice price index by making use of the numerical exchange relations between different currencies developed in the past revolution and evolution of monetary systems; and then it converts the nominal rice price into real rice price data in conjunction with the arrangement and estimation results of the general price index; and finally, it makes a brief observation of and comment on some features of long-term changes of real rice prices. __________ Translated from China Economic Quarterly (经济学季刊), 2005, (9) (in Chinese)     

Investigating Intraday Interdependence Between Gold,Silver and Three Major Currencies: the Euro,British Pound and Japanese Yen

In this study, the interrelationship between major exchange rate returns (namely EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD) and precious metal returns (gold and silver) is examined using a vector autoregressive model in a multivariate asymmetric GARCH framework on the intraday frequency. Our findings indicate a unidirectional volatility transmission from the majority of our currencies (EUR/USD, GBP/USD) to precious metals. The sluggish response of silver volatility to currency volatility shocks permits implementation of intraday profitable strategies, providing implications against market efficiency when analyzing intraday data. In the case of the British pound and Japanese yen, a volatility shock affects silver volatility more than gold volatility. Crisis events such as the Greek default and US credit rating downgrade reduce significantly the correlation of EUR/USD and gold/silver. The covariance between EUR/USD and silver increases after a volatility shock in EUR/USD. The same happens with JPY/USD and silver. These findings are important for portfolio managers and monetary authorities.     

中国金融资产结构演进:1991—2007

1996年本文第一作者曾分析了以间接融资为主的中国金融资产结构给经济带来的一系列问题。经过十余年的金融改革,中国的金融资产结构是否有所改善?目前中国的金融资产结构是否能适应并促进中国经济的发展?本文以中国货币市场和资本市场发展为主线,在重新度量中国金融资产总量的基础上,对以上问题进行了讨论。本文研究表明,在金融改革过程中,中国金融资产结构有了明显改善,但也产生了一些新问题,需要继续完善货币市场和资本市场,以促进金融资产结构调整。未来十年,我国金融市场发展的最佳路径是市场的双向开放。     

后金融危机时代国际货币秩序变革研究——人民币国际竞争力的提升

此轮金融危机的广泛蔓延使各国经济受到不同程度的负面影响,后危机时代的国际经济秩序面临重大调整的时机,其中货币制度的选择、各国货币实力的此消彼长成为全球新货币经济秩序建立的决定性推动力。本文选取货币竞争的视角,在总结英镑、美元、欧元等国际货币竞争主导因素的基础上,探讨后金融危机时代国际货币经济秩序的变革方向和趋势,最终以人民币国际化为落脚点提出相关建议。     

Deflationary policy under digital and fiat currency competition

I examine the implications of digital and fiat currency competition on optimal monetary policy according to the Friedman rule (a standard deflationary policy) in a Fernández-Villaverde and Sanches (2016) framework, with no search friction. Consistent with the existing literature, first, I find that monetary equilibrium under a purely private arrangement of digital currencies will not deliver a socially efficient allocation. Second, I place restrictions on the available supply of digital currencies and find that a socially efficient allocation is possible only if the upper bound on digital currency circulation is equal to the rate of time-preference, albeit some degree of government intervention is required to curb the profit-maximizing incentive of the miners. Third, I find that optimal monetary policy at the Friedman rule will be socially inefficient when digital currencies compete with government-issued fiat money. Finally, I show that the Friedman rule is a socially desirable policy only in a purely fiat monetary regime.     

明代中国经济的产权分析与中欧比较研究

资本市场的萌芽和产生是商品经济的发展水平、社会化大生产状况和信用制度的成熟程度等三个因素共同促成的结果。在14~16世纪,中国和欧洲的基本条件相当,但欧洲地区出现了世界最早的资本市场,并逐步发展成为新的世界经济中心,而当时经济同样发达,并具有悠久文明史的古老中国却不仅没有产生资本市场,反而日渐衰落。本文从产权经济学的视角对明代中国和欧洲的经济发展状况和产权制度进行了比较研究,论证了14~16世纪的中国不可能出现资本市场的历史必然性。     

Price volatility spillovers between supply chain and innovation of financial pledges in China

This study investigates the price volatility spillover of commodities in China using the Granger causality test and the variable structure Copula model, by employing data covering the daily average transaction prices of silver, copper, aluminum, rebar, and fuel oil from 2009 to 2017. The results show that the causal direction of price volatility spillover is uncertain, and that the impact from the correlation coefficients of copper and aluminum is the highest. Hence, there is a clear long-run price volatility spillover between silver and fuel oil as well as between silver and aluminum. Macroeconomic influences on different combinations of commodities present similar changing structure points, such as the debt crisis in Europe, the reduction of the quantitative easing monetary policy proposed by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the promotion of RMB internationalization. Overall, our findings provide a theoretical reference for commercial banks to make full use of the volatility spillover effect between commodity pledges and their combinations, in order to achieve the goal of avoiding any price volatility risk.     

The Reform on RMB Exchange Rate System

The Chinese currency, the yuan, which was pegged to the value of US dollar in the past, will now be a managed currency. Its value will be set in relation to a basket of currencies. China is taking the first big step toward a free-floating currency. This analysis explores the impacts on Chinese banking, Chinese companies and international monetary market.     

浮动本位兑换、双重汇率与中国经济:1870—1900

19世纪70年代以后,当世界上多数国家纷纷放弃金银复本位而采用金本位时,中国仍然是银铜复本位制度。与金银复本位两种本位货币之间有固定兑换比价不同,中国银铜复本位两种本位货币的兑换比价是浮动的,由此造成了对外是金银汇率,对内是银铜(钱)汇率的双重汇率。双重汇率导致了汇率贬值一倍时贸易却由顺差变为逆差,实际外债和赔款的增加加重了财政负担,制钱成本上升带来的物价上涨又加剧了中下层民众的贫困化。本文在郑友揆(1991)研究的基础上,结合货币理论的新进展和新的历史资料,分析1870年到1900年双重汇率对当时中国经济的影响,在此基础上以金银复本位为参照探讨中国银铜复本位制度的内在缺陷。     

贸易结算货币的新选择:稳定的篮子货币——对“金砖五国”货币合作的探讨

文章研究"金砖五国"货币合作的可能形式,构建了稳定的篮子货币作为贸易结算货币,为货币合作提供政策建议。文章首先考察了汇率之间的关系,认为一种货币的加权几何平均汇率能够消除不同货币表示币值的差异,在此基础上构建了篮子货币指数;其次研究了篮子货币波动最小的货币权重的选取,通过最优化方法获得最优权重;最后模拟计算了"金砖五国"篮子货币的权重,并探讨了如何把篮子货币最优权重转化为具体的货币篮子,同时给出了篮子货币和各国货币之间的汇率关系。     

Carry trades and US monetary policy

I document that Federal Reserve expansionary monetary policy has a positive impact on the excess returns arising from currency carry trades. I show that expansive monetary surprises are associated with an increase in future real interest differentials between high interest rate currencies and the US dollar, which leads to higher capital flows toward those currencies and an increase in their returns. Since this increase is not fully compensated by a decrease in the returns from the short position in low interest rate currencies, unexpected monetary expansions in the US result in higher carry trade returns.     

The Mises-Hayek business cycle theory,fiat currencies and open economies

This paper extends the Mises-Hayek business cycle theory to open economies with fiat currencies. I explore: (1) the problem of domestic versus international monetary policy with fiat currencies in an international setting. (2) How the feedback effects between central banks in the context of an expansionary monetary contributes to extend and transmit a Mises-Hayek business cycle from big economies to small financially integrated economies. I find that a lengthening of the period of production is not the only effect produced on the capital structure, but also a misallocation of capital goods between the production of tradable and non-tradable goods and services and that business cycles can become more severe when there are open economies with fiat currencies.     

人民币汇率形成机制缺陷及改革取向

现行人民币汇率形成机制的市场化程度在不断提高,但参考一篮子货币调节规则不透明、汇率浮动区间狭窄等问题,仍然影响着汇率生成的市场基础。本文试图通过分析金融危机对人民币汇率机制形成的影响,提出在金融危机背景下,进一步提高人民币汇率形成的市场化机制,采取盯住一篮子货币、加强区域货币合作、改变外汇市场交易主体结构、适当扩大汇率浮动幅度、完善外汇市场干预方式等政策措施是金融危机下人民币汇率机制的改革取向。     

价格型货币政策操作框架：利率走廊的 条件、机制与实现*

随着商业银行产权市场化水平的提高,以及金融创新的不断涌现,数量型货币政策操作框架的有效性开始下降。本文通过对商业银行行为的分析,基于其极大化经营利润的诉求,论证了利率走廊系统的运行条件及机制。研究认为,完善的制度安排、商业银行的市场主体地位、充分竞争的市场、高效的实时清算系统等是利率走廊系统发挥作用的基础条件;在利率走廊系统运行过程中,当货币市场被注入过多流动性时,其可能转化成地板系统;价格型货币政策操作框架能够实现分别进行资金价格调控与资金数量调控,从而使货币政策操作的针对性与有效性得到提高。由此论文从利率走廊系统的构建、中央银行的职责、商业银行的行为等方面,提出我国货币政策操作框架从数量型调控向价格型调控转型的路径。