Macroeconomic Response to Oil and Food Price Shocks: A Structural VAR Approach to the Indian Economy

The study analyzed the dynamic impact of oil and food price shocks on the macroeconomy of India, using the monthly time series data from April 1994 to May 2016 in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework. Being a net food exporter and net oil importer, the economy is found to face deleterious impacts of global oil and food price shocks on its macroeconomic performance. Output responds negatively to oil and food price hikes along with their volatility and positively to the fall in these prices. Inflation responds positively to all the three transformations of shocks with no signs of coming down, highlighting the price downward inflexibility in India. The study could not establish any evidence of negative demand shocks in face of oil and food price volatility. Central bank responds with a contractionary policy stance to negate the influences of external shocks. Forecast error variance decomposition points out the dominance of external shocks in influencing the domestic variables after their own shocks. Finally, the inflation downward rigidity is observed even in the long run.     

A Structural Model of Australia as a Small Open Economy

This paper sets up and estimates a structural model of Australia as a small open economy using Bayesian techniques. Unlike other recent studies, the paper shows that a small micro-founded model can capture the open economy dimensions quite well. Specifically, the model attributes a substantial fraction of the volatility of domestic output and inflation to foreign disturbances, close to what is suggested by unrestricted VAR studies. The paper also investigates the effects of various exogenous shocks on the Australian economy.     

The Australian Economy

This article deals with developments in the Australian economy in the period from the fourth quarter of 1971 (the quarter for which the latest official estimates of national income and expenditure are available) through to the end of the financial year 1972–73. It was prepared in May 1972.
Annual periods shown as 1970–71, 1971–72, etc. refer to years ended 30 June.     

The Australian Economy

This article deals with developments in the Australian economy in 1970. It includes a discussion of inflation, the labour market, production, housing finance, wool prices and forecasts of mineral exports.     

The Australian Economy

This article deals with developments in the Australian economy in the period from the first quarter of 1970 (the quarter for which the latest official estimates of national income and expenditure are available) through to the end of the financial year 1970-71. It was prepared in July 1970 and brings up to date the forecasts for 1969-70 and 1970-71 published last May in The Australian Economic Review , Number 9, 1st Quarter 1970.
Annual periods shown as 1968-69, 1969-70 etc. refer to years ended 30 June.     

The Australian Economy

This article deals with developments in the Australian economy in the period from the fourth quarter of 1970 (the quarter for which the latest official estimates of national income and expenditure are available) through to the end of the financial year 1971-72. It was prepared in April 1971.
Annual periods shown as 1969-70, 1970-71, etc. refer to years ended 30 June.     

The Australian Economy

This article deals with developments in the Australian economy in the period from the fourth quarter of 1969 (the quarter for which the latest official estimates of national income and expenditure are available) through to the end of the financial year 1970-71. It was prepared in May 1970 and brings up to date the forecasts for 1969-70 and and 1970-71 published last October in The Australian Economic Review, Number 7, 3rd Quarter 1969. Annual periods shown as 1968-69, 1969-70 etc. refer to years ended 30 June.     

The Australian Economy

This article deals with the 1973–74 Federal Budget and the economic context in which it was prepared.
Annual periods shown as 1971–72,1972–73, etc., refer to years ended 30 June.     

The Australian Economy

A review of recent developments in the Australian economy including a discussion of short term and medium term implications of the international oil crisis.     

The Australian Economy

This article deals with developments in the Australian economy in the period from the second quarter of 1971 (the quarter for which the latest official estimates of national income and expenditure are available through to the end of the financial year 1972-73. It was prepared in October 1971.
Annual periods shown as 1970-71, 1971-72, etc. refer to years ended 30 June.     

The Australian Economy

This article deals with developments in the Australian economy in the period from the second quarter of 1969 (the quarter for which the latest official estimates of national income and expenditure are available) through to the end of the financial year 1970-71. It was prepared in October 1969 and brings up to date the forecasts for 1969-70 published last July in The Australian Economic Review, Number 6, 2nd Quarter 1969.
Annual periods shown as 1967-68, 1968-69 etc. refer to years ended 30 June. Money aggregates are at current prices unless indicated otherwise.     

The Australian Economy

This article is in three sections each of which deals with as aspect of recent developments in the Australian economy.     

The Australian Economy

This article deals with developments in the Australian economy in the period from the fourth quarter of 1968 (the quarter for which the latest official estimates of national income and expenditure are available) through to the end of the financial year 1969-70. It was prepared in April 1969 and brings up to date the forecasts for 1968-69 and 1969-70 published last October in The Australian Economic Review , Number 3, 3rd Quarter 1968.
Annual periods shown as 1967-68, 1968-69 etc. refer to years ended 30 June.     

The Australian Economy

This article deals with developments in the Australian economy in the period from the second quarter of 1973 (the quarter for which the latest official estimates of national income and expenditure are available) through to the end of the financial year 1974–75. It was prepared in October and early November 1973.
Annual periods shown as 1971–72, 1972–73, etc. refer to years ended 30 June.     

A Model of the Australian Housing Market

We build an empirical model of the Australian housing market that quantifies interrelationships between construction, vacancies, rents and prices. We find that low interest rates (partly reflecting lower world long-term rates) explain much of the rapid growth in housing prices and construction over the past few years. Another demand factor, high immigration, also helps explain the tight housing market and rapid growth in rents in the late 2000s. A large part of the effect of interest rates on dwelling investment, and hence GDP, works through housing prices.