Grüne Kunden

Ohne Zusammenfassung Prof. Dr. Christian Belz, Ordinarius für Marketing an der Universit?t St. Gallen und Gesch?ftsführender Direktor des Instituts für Marketing und Handel. Mitbegründer und Mitherausgeber der Marketing Review St. Gallen     

„Grüne“ Konjunkturprogramme — Chance für die deutsche Umweltindustrie?

Im Zuge der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise haben viele Staaten Konjunkturpakete verabschiedet, die auch umweltpolitische Ziele verfolgen sollen. Daraus resultierende Zielkonfl ikte k?nnen die Wirkung der Ma?nahmen deutlich schm?lern. Die deutsche Umweltindustrie kann von den internationalen Programmen profi tieren, wenn mit ihnen keine Handelsbeschr?nkungen verbunden sind.     

Der deutsche Kündigungsschutz — die Perspektive der Personalverantwortlichen

In Deutschland werden der Kündigungsschutz und das Kündigungsschutzgesetz in der ?ffentlichen wie der wissenschaftlichen Debatte1 kontrovers diskutiert. Obwohl sich viele für eine Liberalisierung aussprechen, lassen sich (negative) Besch?ftigungseffekte des deutschen Kündigungsschutzes auf gesamtwirtschaftlicher Ebene kaum nachweisen. Die vorliegende Analyse basiert auf umfassenden Befragungen von Personalverantwortlichen. Sie zeigt, dass sich durch einzelne arbeitsrechtliche ?nderungen wohl kaum erhebliche Besch?ftigungseffekte erzielen lassen.     

Der Investitionsaufschwung blieb aus: das Prognosejahr 2015 im Rückblick

When publishing short term forecasts, economists have to reveal their beliefs, e.g. on the duration, shape, and driving forces of business cycles. Against this background, this article analyses the forecasts for 2015 provided by 15 national and international institutions for Germany. In all forecasts, expected GDP growth did not deviate very much from the provisional figure published in January 2016. In a short period in autumn 2014, forecasts were revised downward, owing in particular to a considerable downward revision of investment in equipment. The GDP forecasts thereafter returned to their initial value, now driven by private consumption which benefitted from the decline of oil prices. As expected, GDP was driven by domestic demand, but net exports unexpectedly also contributes positively to growth. Interestingly, forecasts of export growth remained quite robust with respect to changes in world trade forecasts. Another interesting feature is that investment in equipment did not play the expected role as a driver of the business cycle. Finally, private consumption grew almost as expected, but more than likely for other reasons than assumed in the first forecasts.     

Übernivellierung der Einnahmen aus der Grunderwerbsteuer im künftigen Finanzausgleich

Fiscal Equalisation in Germany provides substantial fiscal redistribution between federal and state and among state governments. However, there is also a degree of tax autonomy for the individual German states. Since 2007, states can adjust their local rate of the Real Estate Transfer Tax. However, if they keep the rate low, they may suffer revenue losses due to fiscal redistribution. The paper considers whether this effect will also be present in the new rules for fiscal equalization which will come in to effect in 2020.     

Die Steuerreformpläne der neuen Bundesregierung und das Bürgergeld

Im Koalitionsvertrag wird eine Steuerreform mit einem Stufentarif für Anfang 2011 in Aussicht gestellt. Gleichzeitig erkl?ren die Regierungsparteien dort ihre Absicht, ein Bürgergeld einzuführen. Welche Wirkungen diese Ma?nahmen auf die Besch?ftigung, die Staatsfinanzen und die Einkommensverteilung haben würden, untersucht eine Arbeitsgruppe aus dem Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA). Sie kommt zu dem Ergebnis, dass von diesen Reformvorschl?gen abzuraten sei.     

Wettbewerbsveränderungen im Kontext der Smart-Meter-Einführung in Deutschland

Triggered by the “Messstellenbetriebsgesetz” (metering point operations act), millions of electricity end-users and operators of decentralised energy production facilities face the re placement of their electricity meters by networked intelligent measurement systems (iMS; also better known as smart meters) in Germany in the coming years. Against the background of the legal context of iMS and an overview of their new capabilities, the present article discusses competitive effects of their launch on (1) companies that supply key iMS components to the electricity sector and (2) iMS operators. The analysis reveals that the increasing deployment of decentralised plants generating power from renewable sources, in conjunction with the digitalisation of electricity networks, paradoxically promote a decrease in the number of viable metering point operators. This leads to an increase in market concentration among iMS operation suppliers in favour of large scale utilities and financially strong players from outside the electricity industry which sell billing services covering various ancillary consumption costs of rental flats.     

Der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss

Persistent and significant current account imbalances are often seen as one of the greatest threats to the global economy and a catalyst for protectionist tendencies. Germany is often criticised for running a high surplus. However, economists disagree about whether and to what extent the German current-account surplus is excessive and which policy measures could help to rebalance the current account. The authors argue that the German current-account surplus is a global phenomenon and hence requires in addition to economic policies that could stimulate investment activity in Germany an internationally coordinated approach. Taking into account the specific circumstances of a country, the WTO could act as an institutional framework to deal with global imbalances. In particular the WTO’s Trade Policy Review Mechanism could be further developed into a forum for coordinating members’ trade policy and for agreeing on reciprocal measures among members. The concrete design could be based on other established international mechanisms, such as the European Semester.     

Die radikalen Steuerpläne der US-Republikaner und die Folgen für die EU

The Republican majority in the US House of Representatives is considering the introduction of a destination-based cash flow tax (DBCFT). While its global implementation has the potential to substantially increase welfare, a unilateral introduction of such a tax system raises a range of questions due to the existence of source-based taxation systems abroad. We consider the US tax plans from an EU perspective. We show that European exporters may suffer, but European firms with affiliation in the US may benefit from a switch to the DBCFT. American firms will be the likely losers of this policy. Finally, we discuss potential policy reactions by the EU and its member countries as well as legal and economic implications of possible adjustments in EU tax systems.     

Unerwünschte Veränderungen der realen Finanzkraftreihenfolge im Länderfinanzausgleich

Given that the current fiscal equalisation scheme needs to be changed by 2019, this paper looks at reform proposals for the fiscal transfer system in Germany to take account of differences in regional purchasing power across states, i.e. differences in the costs of providing public goods and services. Two different reform proposals for a modified transfer system are examined. The first one extends the current fiscal transfer system by additionally allowing for disparities in regional purchasing power across states; the second one links fiscal transfer payments entirely to disparities in regional purchasing power across states. The results show that a transfer system that explicitly accounts for differences in regional purchasing power across states would noticeably reduce the actual volume of redistribution.     

Der Ausgleichstarif im hessischen kommunalen Finanzausgleich: ein Vorbild für andere Länder?

The municipal financial equalisation scheme in Hesse was reformed in 2016. This article discusses to what extent the new scheme levels the disparities between municipalities’ revenue-raising abilities and their financing needs. Special consideration is given to the financial grants paid to financially weak municipalities as well as the solidarity levy paid by financially strong municipalities. The new compensation tariff is a good compromise between efficiency goals and distributive goals.     

Gemeinschaftsdiagnose im Frühjahr 2014

In 2014 and 2015 the German economy will, according to the joint economic forecast, be in an upswing that is mainly driven by strong internal demand. The institutes assess the risks coming from a possible slump of the Russian economy. Simulations with macroeconometric models show that Germany is more affected than other large economies in Europe such as France and Italy. The new minimum wage is a further risk for the German economy that it is difficult to assess. According to this forecast, the minimum wage will, when it comes into effect in 2015, mainly have an adverse effect on employment. Since in general only jobs with low productivity will be lost, the effect on production will be markedly smaller.     

Der Flexibilitätsbeitrag in der Arbeitslosenversicherung

The controversy around fixed-term contracts centres around the conflict between the employer’s need for flexibility and the employee’s need for security. The authors propose flexible contributions for employers to the public unemployment insurance system to balance both interests. The employers’ contributions for their temporary staff would increase while the contributions for their permanent staff would in turn decrease slightly. The authors calculate four versions. With regards to the total sum of contributions, the first version holds the contributions received constant while the second version leads to a reduction. They then repeat these two calculations for fixed-term contracts without substantive grounds. The flexibility premium takes into account the higher unemployment risk of employees with fixed-term contracts and establishes monetary incentives for employers to hire employees with permanent contracts.     

Der Dodd-Frank Act auf dem Prüfstand

In February 2017, newly elected U.S. president Donald Trump released a presidential executive order on core principles for regulating the United States financial system. Basically, the order seeks to compare how existing regulation imposed by the Dodd-Frank Act corresponds with the core principles that include the promotion of financial stability by improving accountability and transparency in the financial system, the end of “too big to fail”, the protection of the American taxpayer by ending bailouts and consumers from abusive financial services practices. This article presents an overview of important regulations imposed by the Dodd-Frank Act and discusses the criticism on some of the regulations.     

Der neue Kurs der Europ?ischen Zentralbank

In September 2012, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its new “Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT)” programme, which entails unlimited purchases of member states’ government bonds. Following an idea by George Soros, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, the ECB intends to sterilise these purchases through the liabilities side of its balance sheet, i.e. through the issuance of ECB bonds. The article analyses this plan and argues that the ECB is introducing a second unlimited European Stability Mechanism (ESM). This clearly violates European law and is likely to be punishable under German criminal law.