信贷配给对农村地区贫困的门槛效应研究

基于信贷配给对农村贫困作用的内在逻辑,运用面板门槛模型剖析了信贷配给对农村地区贫困的非线性作用及其地区差异。研究发现：降低信贷配给程度是减缓农村地区贫困的有效途径,且具有显著的门槛特征;随着农业信贷配给程度由高水平区间向低水平区间的转换,农村地区贫困与信贷配给程度的关系呈“U”型变化;信贷配给对农村地区贫困的门槛效应具有明显的区域特征,东部农村地区随着信贷配给程度的降低,增加信贷有效供给的减贫效应逐渐变弱,中西部农村地区随着农业信贷配给程度由高水平区间向低水平区间的转换,农村贫困与信贷配给程度的关系呈倒“U”型变化。     

Credit rationing and firm exports: Microeconomic evidence from small and medium‐sized enterprises in China

This paper examines the effect of credit rationing on export performance by small and medium‐sized firms in China. We use a detailed firm‐level data provided by the Small and Medium‐sized Enterprises Dynamic Survey (SMEDS) during 2015–16 to conduct this analysis. The SMEDS provides firm‐specific measures of credit rationing based directly on firm‐level responses to the survey rather than indirect ones, based on firm‐level financial statements. We find that, at the extensive margin, weak and strong credit rationing reduces export probability of small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) by 15.1% and 39.6%, respectively. At the intensive margin, they decrease SMEs' export values by more than 20.0% and over 28.8%, respectively. Different than existing literature, we construct valid firm‐level instruments, firm‐level housing stock, for credit rationing rather than using province‐level instruments. We also employ county‐industry‐level instruments and obtain consistent estimates. In addition, credit rationing exhibits heterogeneous impacts on firms with different liquidity ratios, product portfolios, external collateral and capital utilisation rates.     

The Consumer Impact of Alternative Allocation Plans: The Case of Gasoline

This paper assesses the potential impact of rationing, “lifeline,” rationing with resale and tax-rebate approaches to extra-market allocation from the consumer's perspective. Basic microeconomic tools are used to demonstrate that the rationing with resale and tax-rebate plans have similar effects and that all consumers would prefer those policies to lifeline allocation. Conventional rationing is shown to benefit households consuming intermediate quantities of an allocated good while rationing with resale and tax-rebate programs provide large and small users with higher levels of satisfaction. These propositions are empirically confirmed for the case of gasoline. Quantitative results suggest that simple rationing and lifeline plans calculated to reduce aggregate gasoline consumption by 10 percent would have severe impact on high income consumers. Alternative policies would broaden the burden of conservation and cause income redistribution toward low income consumers.     

Causes and Effects of Financing Constraints at the Firm Level

This paper focuses on the empirical assessment of determinants and effects of financing constraints at the firm level. Using a standard model of credit rationing based on asymmetric information firm age and size are found to be factors which should influence the probability of financing constraints. Improving business conditions strengthen the degree of informational asymmetry. A unique panel of firm data for Germany, including direct information on financing constraints, is used for the econometric analysis. Firms' size and improving business conditions are found to have a significant effect. Furthermore, a significant impact on investment and R&D expenditures cannot be rejected.     

Credit constraints and firm export: Microeconomic evidence from Italy

This paper estimates the impact of credit rationing on firms' export. We use detailed survey data from Italian manufacturing firms that provide a firm-specific measure of credit rationing based directly on firms' responses to the survey rather than indirectly on firms' financial statements. After controlling for productivity and other relevant firm attributes, and accounting for the endogeneity of credit rationing, we find that the probability of exporting is 39% lower for rationed firms and that rationing reduces foreign sales by more than 38%. While credit rationing also appears to depress domestic sales, its impact on foreign sales is significantly stronger. The analysis also suggests that credit rationing is an obstacle to export especially for firms operating in high-tech industries and in industries that heavily rely on external finance.     

农村信贷配给现状、成因及对策分析

目前,我国农村存在着严重的信贷配给不足现象,严重减低了农村经济主体贷款可获得性。造成这一现象的原因既有农村金融供给方面的原因,又有农村金融需求方面的原因,还有农村金融环境方面的原因,应从多方面着手探讨缓解农村信贷配给的路径。     

信贷市场中的学历价值及其区域异质性研究

网络借贷平台的兴起,为研究借款者学历在信贷市场的实际价值及影响机制提供了新的机会窗口。依托A网贷平台的公开业务数据发现:信贷市场的信用配给存在学历价值区分效应,拥有高学历者在获取贷款及更低借款成本上具有优势;学历价值的具体效用存在区域异质性,相同学历背景的借款人在东部地区较中西部能够获得更多融资优势。研究结果表明:学历作为易被观察的显性标签,可以在信贷市场风险识别中发挥更大作用;教育价值评估需充分考虑区域经济社会发展水平,关注区域异质性。     

Is the Small Firms Loan Guarantee Scheme Hazardous for Banks or Helpful to Small Business?

Loan guarantee schemes are an integral part of SME policy in both developed and developing countries. Yet little has been done to evaluate such programmes, particularly in terms of their ability to correct for capital market imperfections. This paper uses individual loan data from some 42,000 UK SFLGS backed debt contracts to empirically test the default specification outlined in the seminal credit rationing paper of Stiglitz and Weiss (1981). The results show that default (failure) does increase with the banks cost of capital, but not with the government premium. In addition, default appears to be determined by a whole host of other factors not typically considered in the credit rationing literature.     

中小企业信贷配给的综合模型

本文将银行利润、银行利率、企业风险、企业规模作为内生系统变量纳入一个分析框架,建立一个竞争性市场下综合的信贷配给模型,重点研究不同风险类型的中小企业的信贷配给。模型揭示,多样性的信贷合同组合可以通过贷款利率、抵押品作为甄别机制而达到斯宾塞-莫里斯分离均衡,并分析了其存在的条件与范围,阐述了模型对中国金融系统改革及中小企业信贷配给的现实启示。     

Investment–cash flow sensitivities,credit rationing and financing constraints in small and medium-sized firms

The controversy on whether investment–cash flow sensitivity is a good indicator of financing constraints is still unsolved. We apply a comprehensive approach by cross-validating our analysis with both balance sheet and qualitative data on self-declared credit rationing and financing constraints on a sample of mainly small and medium-sized firms. Our qualitative information shows that (self-declared) credit rationing is (weakly) related to both traditional a priori factors—such as firm size, age and location—and lenders’ rational decisions taken on the basis of their credit risk models. We use the qualitative information on firms which were denied (additional) credit to provide evidence relevant to the investment–cash flow sensitivity debate. The evidence shows that self-declared credit rationing significantly discriminates between firms which possess or not such sensitivity, while a priori criteria do not. The same result does not apply when we consider the wider group of financially constrained firms (which do not seem to have a higher investment–cash flow sensitivity), supporting the more recent empirical evidence in this direction.     

Fiscal and exchange rate policies in a fix-price trade model with export rationing

Recent writings in macroeconomics [e.g. Barro-Grossman (1976) and Malinvaud (1977)] have presented models where short-run price and wage rigidities prevent instantaneous attainment of a Walrasian equilibrium. The effects of macroeconomics policies in such models where prices and wages are exogenously fixed for one reason or another, depend critically on the nature of the implied rationing of labor and output among potential demanders and suppliers in various nonmarket-clearing situations. The present paper develops a simple two-sector model of an open economy in which rationing occurs when the exportable good is in short supply. The short-run effects of fiscal and exchange rate policies on output and the trade balance are shown to vary depending on the nature of labor and output markets ‘disequilibria’. Policy-makers must, therefore, be able to assess the nature of nonmarket-clearing situations to prescribe appropriate policy measures. Naive assumptions that standard Keynesian models are appropriate may lead to policy errors.     

Effects of personal taxes and equity issuing costs on the firm's investment decision

The existence of preferential taxes on capital gains relative to ordinary income is widely understood to create a systematic preference for internal rather than external equity financing. This preference is magnified by the existence of issuing costs on new equity. This paper develops a procedure to account for these market imperfections in terms of an adjusted net present value that directly adjusts a project's net present value calculated without regard to the imperfections. Once the correct adjustment procedure is developed, the practical implications of personal taxes and issuing costs on the firm's investment behavior clearly emerges. These market imperfections have created a discontinuous function for the firm in obtaining equity capital. Many rational wealth-maximizing firms are forced to make investment decisions in a situation similar to capital rationing as the separation theorem between investing and financing does not generally hold. This explanation of a potentially long-run need for capital rationing is consistent with otherwise perfect capital markets.     

A DYNAMICAL ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE FORMS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND TENURE

This paper explores a dynamic model of an agricultural sector in which farms are leased to cultivators on fixed rent contracts or on sharecropping contracts and in which cultivators are subject to credit rationing by banks. The model, which can exhibit complex dynamics, is used to compare the two pure forms of land tenure and to explore some implications of the coexistence of both types of tenure. The central conclusion from the dynamic simulations is that, contrary to the conventional proposition based on static analysis, both landowners and cultivators may be better‐off under sharecropping.     

Effect of the Number of Banking Relationships on Credit Availability: Evidence from Panel Data of Spanish Small Firms

This paper investigates how the choice between single or multiple banking relationships affects credit availability for a complete panel of small and medium-sized Spanish firms. The results seem to indicate the existence of rationing, since a substitution relation has been found between trade and bank credit. We also analyse the relationship between the level of indebtedness and the interest rate for each group of firms. The results show that those SMEs that work with fewer financial intermediaries obtain fewer funds for the same increase in the interest rate, which indicates that these companies have more financial restraints.     

Profit-Maximising Rigid Prices and Vertical Integration

This article explores profit-maximising rigid pricing for a price-setting firm and relates the results to vertical integration, which is an important area of corporate strategy and antitrust policy. The setting of a profit-maximising rigid price is investigated in the face of a known distribution of short-run demand levels as a compromise between the flexible prices that would be appropriate in the short run at different levels of demand. The price and level of capacity are therefore set to maximise expected profits across varying levels of demand. With the help of computer simulations, it is shown that price rigidity increases the incentives for vertical integration, particularly where upstream production is capital intensive, due to the increased importance of rationing. The incentives will also be particularly strong for more efficient and more capital-intensive downstream production with low short-run marginal costs.     

我国P2P小额信贷平台效率研究

资本对企业发展所处的地位,决定了P2P网络信贷对中国经济的重要影响。在宏观上它促进了国内资本的优化配置,丰富了老百姓的投资选择。它是对银行信贷配给制度的一种补充。然而很少有文章从定量的角度分析P2P网络信贷平台的运行效率。因此,文章从此视角出发,通过DEA模型对中国22家知名P2P小额贷款公司进行了效率分析,让我们更清楚地了解目前我国贷款平台规模报酬及纯技术效率所处水平,进而提出一些建议及对策,为进一步研究P2P网络信贷平台打下基础。     

Do Firms Get the Financing They Want? Measuring Credit Rationing Experienced by Small Businesses in the U.S.

This paper measures the extent to which small businesses in the United States in the late 1980s were able to access the external credit finance they desired. We argue that a comprehensive definition of credit rationing must account for both (a) creditworthy firms that apply for and are denied financing, and (b) creditworthy firms that decide not to apply for desired external financing, given expectations about how long it may take to obtain financing and the evolution of investment opportunities.Data from a national survey of small businesses shows that only 2.14 percent of firms did not obtain the funding for which they applied in 1987–88. Another 2.17 percent may have faced some short-run constraints on investment: they were initially denied by lenders but received the credit for which they applied by the end of the sample period. Finally, an additional 4.22 percent of firms are estimated to have been discouraged from applying because of expected denial.Constrained firms are smaller, younger, and more likely to be owned by their founders than those firms that successfully applied for external finance. The total number of credit constrained firms seems quite small, particularly because we cannot distinguish empirically between creditworthy and noncreditworthy firms. Thus the extent of true credit rationing appears quite limited.     

中小企业融资困境的经济学分析

中小企业在国民经济中的地位不断提升,而其融资困难却是不争的事实。运用经济学的有关理论,分别从交易费用、信息不对称、新凯恩斯主义的信贷配给和博弈的角度探讨中小企业融资困境的内在机理,以期能对我国中小企业融资困境的解决提供理论依据。     

我国农村地区信贷配给问题及对策研究

我国农村金融存在着信贷配给现象,尤其以农户和中小企业贷款难最为突出,资金短缺已成为农村经济发展的"瓶颈"。信贷配给的存在既有农户和农村中小企业自身的原因,也与我国农村金融市场风险补偿机制的缺失有关。通过构建信贷配给模型,分析不完全信息条件下我国农村金融存在信贷配给的主要原因,提出了农村金融组织创新、完善农村金融机构的风险补偿分担机制、完善农村信用环境建设等对策建议。     

A conceptual model for managing long-term inter-organisational relationships

This paper will discuss the concept of relationship development. It will argue that whilst existing literature focuses on an economic power relationship this is incorrect. The focus should be based on a concentration on the trade off between the level of dependency that a firm is prepared to accept, compared to the level of certainty that they perceive to be realistic.The paper will explore the literature on relationship management and will take several established frameworks and argue that whilst they have substantial merit their focus is not helpful to relationship implementation and management. A conceptual model is presented which provides a different way of viewing relationships using the theoretical concept of ‘game theory’. This paper suggests that relationships are processes and not entities. As such the unit of analysis should be at the product, service or commodity level and not at the firm level. The approach suggested whilst conceptual, has been developed from several years of research with a variety of firms across a range of industries; some case studies will be used to illustrate the applicability of the framework.