U.S. Hog Production and the Influence of State Water Quality Regulation

The U.S. hog industry is experiencing an increase in both the average size and in the geographical concentration of feeding operations. These increases have caused public attention to focus on the environmental consequences of hog production and on the regulations imposed to limit these consequences. This study examines the influence of state water quality regulatory stringency on hog production in the United States. The results of this analysis provide evidence that environmental compliance costs are significant for small hog feeding operations, while production on large operations does not appear to be influenced by the level of state environmental regulatory stringency.
On assiste présentement à une augmentation de la taille des exploitations et à une concentration géographique des établissements d'engraissement dans le secteur américain de l'élevage porcin. Ces changements ont amené la population à s'intéresser aux répercussions de la production porcine sur l'environnement et aux réglements adoptés en vue d'atténuer de telles répercussions. L'auteur détermine de quelle maniére la sévérité des réglements d'État sur la qualité de l'eau influe sur l'élevage des pores aux États-Unis. Les résultats de son analyse prouvent que le respect des règlements sur la protection de l'environnement engendre des coûts appréciables pour les petits éleveurs, alors que les exploitations de plus grande envergure ne sont pas aussi affectées par la rigueur de la réglementation d'État en matiére d'environnement.     

China as a Potential Market for U.S. Pork Exports

This study provides details of emerging opportunities for U.S. pork exporters following the U.S.–China WTO Accession Agreement. The Agreement will enable the United States to gain unprecedented access to the Chinese pork market. The United States enjoys comparative advantages in producing hogs at lower cost, higher quality, and greater efficiency. Moreover, Chinese preference for pork is highly complementary to that of U.S. consumers. Therefore, U.S. pork exporters are expected to target primarily the Chinese variety meats market. Although China is expected to remain a surplus pork production nation, demographic shifts could provide additional opportunities for U.S. pork exporters to increase sales of more premium cuts for urban consumers in China.     

Econometric Examination of U.S. Potato-Related Market Relationships

Abstract

Modeling results, from a U.S. International Trade Commission investigation, that illuminate potato-related competitive conditions, particularly U.S. market impacts of potato imports, are presented. Estimation and simulation results of a monthJy vector autoregression model of the U.S. fresh and frozen trench fry markets suggest that the own-price elasticity of fresh table potato demand is more moderately elastic than previously thought; that U.S. fresh potato and trench fry markets only modestly interact, because the fresh table market residually and infrequently supplies raw product to processors; and that increased U.S. imports of fresh Canadian potatoes are likely a regional problem in Northeast U.S. markets, and do not appreciably influence potato-related prices or quantities nationally. Given the scarce potato-related literature, the model's estimated market parameters arc of interest.     

Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market

This study examines short-run and long-run unbiasedness within the U.S. rice futures market. Standard OLS, cointegration, and error-correction models are used to determine unbiasedness. In addition, the forecasting performance of the rice futures market is analyzed and compared to out-of-sample forecasts derived from an additive ARIMA model and the error-correction model. The results of our unbiasedness tests and the forecasting performance of the rice futures market provide supporting evidence that the U.S. long-grain rough rice futures market is efficient. The results have important price risk management and price discovery implications for Arkansas and U.S. rice industry participants.     

Quantitative Assessment of U.S. Wheat Performance for Quality Characteristics

Quality of U. S. grain exports has been a contentious issue over the past decade. Nowhere is the issue more hotly debated than for wheat. At the core of the debate has been the ability of Canada to command a premium for its wheat in foreign markets. Buyers' perceptions of quality have been suggested as an explanation, but empirical evidence on the quality attributes responsible for this country-of-origin premium has been limited to hedonic pricing studies. This paper quantifies purchasers' perceptions of the relative importance of quality characteristics for the world's major importing countries. This is done by calculating three indices. The attainment index measures how well buyers' perceptions of the importance of the characteristic matches buyers' perceptions of how well it is being supplied. The supply index measures buyers' perceptions on how well a characteristic is being supplied. The demand index measures how important the buyers perceive a particular characteristic to be. Then buyers' perceptions of the performance of U.S. and Canadian wheats are evaluated, given the perceived importance of each characteristic, and related to previous empirical results. Finally, these results are compared for alternative groupings of importing countries.     

U.S. Crop Farmers' Use of Market Advisory Services

Abstract

This study reports that Market Advisory Services (MAS) are used by about 82% of commercial U.S. crop producers, based on the results of a recent survey. Only 43% of MAS users rely on a single service, while the other 57% subscribe to multiple services. MAS users' profiles in terms of their (1) demographic characteristics, (2) risk attitude, and (3) marketing behavior are presented. The results indicate that MAS users can be differentiated based on their location and use of computers, though not on age and farm size. MAS users are shown to be significantly more risk seeking than non-users. Furthermore, MAS users apply significantly more forward-pricing techniques, but are no different from non-users in terms of marketing frequency.     

A Dynamic Regression Model of the U.S. Hog Market

Historical patterns of hog slaughterings are analyzed and related to a hog-corn price ratio series using the transfer function or dynamic regression technique. This technique permits explicit tests of causal relationships and provides a systematic means for specifying distributed lag forms. It is determined that the hog-corn price ratio series leads hog slaughterings and that there is no feedback. The estimated transfer function is analyzed in terms of its implications for the supply of hogs and its implications for the length of the hog cycle.
Nous analyserons les schémas historiques de l'abattage de pores et Us mettrons en correspondence avec une série de rapportsprix du porc —prix du maïs en ulilisant lafonction de transfert ou la technique de regression dynamique. Cette technique permet de tester explicitement les relations causales et foumit un moyen systématique de spécifier les formes de retard distribué. On a determine que Vabattage de pores dépend de la série de rapports prix du pore —prix du maïs mais que I'inverse n'est pas vrai. La fonction de transfert est analysée en fonction de ce qu'elle impliquepour I'approvisionnement en pores et pour la longueur du cycle chez les pores.     

Quarterly Dynamic Relationships Between the U.S. Wheat Market and Wheat-Related Prices for Products Downstream

Abstract

A quarterly VA R econometric model of the reduced form relationships between the U.S. wheat market and prices of processed wheat-related flour, bread, and other bakery products downstream was estimated. The model then simulated under a rise in production- or import-induced increase in wheat quantity, and a decline in wheat price, to examine the dynamic effects on the U.S. wheat market and on processed wheat-related prices downstream. U.S. trade negotiators at the upcoming WTO agricultural round, Federal policy makers, farmers, and agribusiness agents should be interested in the dynamic patterns with which negotiated trade conditions, farm policy alterations, and climatic variation influence wheat quantity and price, and in turn the price of more highly processed wheat-based products downstream.     

Assessing the U.S. Market Economics for a Cultured Flounder,Paralichthys sp., Industry

There is considerable interest in the culture of flounder because of its high retail market value, the established worldwide market for flatfish, and the ability of flounder to grow in fresh or brackish water. The author assesses the U.S. market potential for a cultured flounder, Paralichthys sp., industry. Regression analyses were used to estimate both the price and income elasticity of demand for flounder. Demand forecasting was used to predict effective annual future demand for flounder. Although the U.S. flounder market is large and expanding, there are indications of excess supply suppressing prices below profitable levels for aquaculture producers. Demand is price inelastic, so an increase in supply from aquaculture production will produce a disproportionately large decrease in price, reducing total producer revenue. Unless niche markets are targeted or an export market is developed, the outlook for large-scale flounder aquaculture in the United States is not economically promising.     

Does Cost-Share Replicate Water Quality Trading Projects? Implications for a Possible Partnership

Water Quality Trading (WQT) and federal conservation programs such as the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) employ incentive payments to encourage agricultural best management practices (BMPs). In many cases, WQT and EQIP are encouraging the same types of farmers to implement the same types of BMPs using similar incentive payments. A number of analysts have recommended that WQT partner with EQIP to recruit farmers, yet the literature lacks an analysis of whether EQIP could adequately substitute for WQT's project selection process. In this article, we systematically compare the project ranking procedures used by WQT and EQIP and suggest which partnership structures might be most appropriate.     

Price Cycles and Asymmetric Price Transmission in the U.S. Pork Market

Economists have proposed several plausible explanations for observed price transmission asymmetries in commodity markets. Unfortunately, the econometric methods commonly used in such studies cannot empirically distinguish pricing behavior under the competing theories. We argue that the theories may be classified by firm responses to high- and low-frequency price cycles and use Engle's band spectrum regression to test the symmetry of high- and low-frequency cycles in weekly pork prices. The findings indicate that changes in wholesale prices are asymmetrically transmitted to retail prices in relatively low-frequency cycles, which does not support search costs and other high-frequency explanations. Conversely, wholesale pork prices asymmetrically adjust to changes in farm prices at all frequencies.     

U.S. Demand for Imported Wines

The U.S. is viewed as a lucrative market outlet for surplus wines produced in the leading wine exporting countries in the world. Structural U.S. import demand functions were estimated for French, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, and German wines as well as for those that are U.S. produced. The equations were estimated with two-stage least-squares because of simultaneity between quantity demanded and price. Direct price, cross, and income elasticities were calculated to determine the degree of competiveness among the various wines of differing origin. Two separate groups of wine were identified. First, U.S. produced, French, and German wines were in one group. Spanish, Portuguese, and Italian wines comprised the second group. The latter group also encountered competition from the first group of wines.     

碳排放权交易的市场分析

提出了碳排放权交易的基本概念,介绍了当前碳排放权交易规模急剧膨胀、私人公司踊跃参与、发展中国家成为主要卖方市场的现状,并对建立碳排放权交易的市场机制过程中可能存在的问题进行了较为深刻的讨论,提出了中国构建碳排放权市场交易机制的相关制度建议。     

An Analysis of Dynamic Economic Relationships: An Application to the U.S. Hog Market

Recent advances in multiple time-series analysis are discussed and applied to data from the U.S. hog market. Vector-autoregressive and moving-average representations are derived and interpreted with respect to implied dynamic relationships among the variables.
Desprogrès récents dans l'analyse des séries temporelles multiples sont présentes el utilisés pour l'analyse des données sur le marché porcin aux Etats- Unis. Deux representations, la premiere vectorielle el autoregressive et la seconde moyennes mobiles, sont dérivées et interpretées selon les relations dynamiques implicites des variables.     

Market and Cost Structure in the U.S. Beef Packing Industry: A Plant-Level Analysis

A resurgence of consolidation in the U.S. meat packing industry in the past few decades has stimulated academic and policy debate. Issues raised include the role of cost economies in driving these patterns, and the effects on the agricultural sector (cattle producers) from market power. Here, plant level cost and revenue data for U.S. beef packing plants are used to estimate a cost-based model incorporating cattle- and output-market pricing behavior. The robust results indicate little market power exploitation in either the cattle input or beef output markets, and that any apparent evidence is counteracted by cost efficiencies such as utilization and scope economies.     

Imports versus Domestic Production: A Demand System Analysis of the U.S. Red Wine Market

The U.S. wine market experienced rapid growth in all facets—production, consumption, exports, and imports—over the past decade. Red wine imports more than tripled while consumption of domestically produced red wines doubled. This research estimates demand elasticities of U.S. red wine imports from five countries accounting for over 90% of imports—Italy, France, Spain, Australia, and Chile—using the first-difference version of the almost ideal demand system (AIDS). These elasticities are compared with those for domestically produced red wine. Results for conditional expenditure elasticities indicate that the U.S. red wine industry gains over imports when U.S. consumers' total expenditures on red wine increase. However, comparing own- and cross-price elasticities reveals an increase in the price of U.S. red wine results in a decline in quantity demanded six times greater than for French and Italian red wines and over 20 times greater than other import countries, thus harming the U.S. red wine industry. Empirical results suggest that U.S. red-wine producers could increase their total revenue by decreasing prices, while Italian and French producers can increase total revenues by increasing them.     

A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis of U.S.–Canadian Disputes on the World Softwood Lumber Market

This paper utilizes a world spatial equilibrium model to examine the effects of U.S.–Canadian softwood lumber disputes on U.S., Canadian, and other exporters' and importers' lumber markets. Results show that the U.S. import tariff on Canadian softwood lumber impacts prices, supply, demand and trade flows not only in the United States and Canada but also in the other countries. Though the goal of U.S. trade restriction is to limit imports from Canada and protect its producers, the United States cannot fully accomplish this goal as non-Canadian exporters fill the void left by the reduced imports from Canada. Canadian producers lose from the U.S. policy, but their loss is mitigated as Canada redirects its exports to other importers. Importing countries such as Japan and the European Union benefit from the U.S. trade restrictions as Canada seeks to sell its softwood lumber to these countries.