Exposure,hedging, and value: New evidence from the U.S. airline industry

For a variety of reasons, the U.S. airline industry is a natural sample to analyze the relation between corporate risk exposure, hedging policy, and firm value. First, we find that airline exposures to fuel prices are higher when fuel prices are high or when they are rising. Second, we analyze the relation between exposure coefficients and the percentage of next year's fuel requirement hedged by airlines. In response to higher fuel price levels, rising fuel prices, and higher levels of exposure to fuel prices, airlines tend to increase their hedging activity. Finally, we explore the previously documented jet fuel hedging premium illustrated in Carter, Rogers, and Simkins (2006). We find a positive hedging premium in our analysis; however, the interaction of hedging and exposure does not affect firm value. We conclude that airlines increasing hedging activity because of higher fuel price exposure are not valued higher compared to those airlines employing more stable hedging policies.     

Depreciation in the Canadian Airline Industry

This case is designed to help students enhance their analytical skills and link accounting policy choices with corporate strategy. Written initially for MBA students and senior analysts attending executive education sessions, it provides participants with 1) industry background for the Canadian airline sector, and 2) historical and selected financial and non‐financial information from the annual reports and initial public offering documents of three players in this industry. Participants are invited to reflect on the theoretical and practical reasons underlying the choice of a depreciation method by airline companies, to find ways to quantitatively compare companies that use different depreciation methods, and to link these policy choices to possible strategic considerations. This case is based on a unique situation prevailing in 2009 where financial information was available for all three airlines which were using different approaches for aircraft depreciation.     

Does Operational and Financial Hedging Reduce Exposure? Evidence from the U.S. Airline Industry

We examine the effects of both financial and operational hedging on jet fuel exposure in the U.S. airline industry. Specifically, we investigate two operational hedging strategies: the extent to which airlines operate different aircraft types and the degree to which airlines operate fuel‐efficient fleets. We find that both financial and operational hedging are important tools in reducing airline exposure to jet fuel price risk. However, operational hedging strategies appear to be more economically important, which suggests that hedging with derivatives is more likely to be used to “fine‐tune” risk exposure, whereas operational choices have a higher order effect on risk exposure.     

Hedging and Value in the U.S. Airline Industry

This article discusses the findings and practical import of the authors' study of the fuel hedging activity of 28 U.S. airlines during the period 1992‐2003. The aim of the study was to answer the following question: Does fuel hedging add value to the airlines and, if so, how? The airline industry provides a natural experiment for investigating the relation between hedging and value for a number of reasons: (1) the industry is by and large competitive and remarkably homogeneous; (2) airlines are exposed to a single, volatile input commodity—jet fuel—that represents a major economic expense for all competitors; and (3) fuel price increases cannot be easily passed through to customers because of competitive pressures in the industry. The results of the study show that jet fuel hedging is positively related to airline firm value. Those airlines that hedged their fuel costs had Tobin's Q ratios that were 5‐10% higher, on average, than those of airlines that did not hedge. What's more, the higher the proportion of future fuel requirements hedged, the larger the valuation premium. The authors' results also suggest that the main source of value added by hedging in the airline industry is its role in preserving the firm's ability to take advantage of investment opportunities that arise when fuel prices are high and airline operating cash fl ows and values are down. Consistent with this argument, the study finds that the value premium associated with hedging increases with the level of the firm's capital spending. The authors also report that the most active hedgers of fuel costs among the airlines are the larger firms with the least debt and highest credit ratings. This result is somewhat surprising, at least to the extent that smaller airlines are expected to have larger financial distress costs (as a percentage of firm value) and hence greater motive to hedge. One explanation is that the smaller airlines have lacked either sufficient resources or the strategic foresight to acquire a derivatives hedging capability. A second possibility—one that is consistent with the study's main findings—is that the largest airlines also have the highest costs of financial distress (even as a percentage of firm value) in the form of larger growth opportunities that could be lost as a result of high leverage and financial risk. In other words, only the largest airlines are typically able to buy distressed assets during periods of industry weakness; to the extent this is so, such firms may also have the most to gain from hedging.     

Does Fair Value Accounting Exacerbate the Procyclicality of Bank Lending?

This study investigates whether fair value accounting contributes to the procyclicality of bank lending. Using banks’ approval/denial decisions on residential mortgage applications to capture banks’ supply of credit, I find no evidence that fair value accounting has procyclical effects on bank lending over the past two business cycles. I further identify two reasons for this result. First, the main accounting item distinguishing fair value accounting from historical cost accounting—unrealized gains and losses on available‐for‐sale securities—does not affect lending decisions. Second, unrealized gains and losses on available‐for‐sale securities are not procyclical, as the risk‐free interest rate rises during some expansionary periods, resulting in unrealized losses, while the risk‐free interest rate (and sometimes the default spread) falls during some recessionary periods, resulting in unrealized gains.     

Accounting disclosure and firms' financial attributes: Evidence from the UK stock market

This paper focuses on the disclosure of accounting information in the financial statements of UK firms. The primary objective of the study is to analyse the financial characteristics of firms that provide extensive disclosures, and assess the financial impact of their motives, such as for example the need to raise equity finance. The study examines the financial attributes of firms that disclose information about key accounting issues including risk exposure, changes in accounting policies, use of international financial reporting standards and hedging practices. Firms are inclined to disclose accounting information in order to assure the market participants that their accounting policies are consistent with the accounting regulation and meet the information needs of their stakeholders. The study shows that in order to raise finance in the capital and debt markets, firms tend to provide extensive accounting disclosures. Firms that provide informative accounting disclosures appear to display higher size, growth and leverage measures. The findings also show that the disclosure of sensitive accounting information has not adversely affected firms' profitability. In fact, firms that provide detailed accounting disclosures tend to exhibit higher profitability. The implementation of international financial reporting standards enhances the quality and the comparability of financial statements; hence it promotes consistency and reliability in financial reporting and facilitates companies in raising capital internationally.     

Complex Network of Aviation E-Services in the Belt and Road Initiative: A Heuristic Study of Small Data based on Block Modeling

ABSTRACT

The aviation e-service system is an important part of support for business communication in regions covered by Belt and Road initiative. In exploring the role of airline companies in this system, we examine the structure of the network, which consists of airlines interconnections based on small data of individual attributes of aviation companies in aviation e-services, and study these interconnections across different groups using block modeling. The heuristic solution of airline companies in development of international communication and cooperation is further discussed. Among our policy implications for global managers, we suggest the enhancement of cross-regional cooperation among airlines.     

Fuel hedging,operational hedging and risk exposure — Evidence from the global airline industry

The aviation industry is characterized by low profit margins and a constant struggle with skyrocketing fuel costs. Financial and operational hedging strategies serve aviation managers as a tool to counteract high and volatile fuel prices. While most research on fuel hedging has concentrated on the U.S. airline market, this paper is the first study to include airlines from Asia and Europe. We analyze 64 airlines over 11 years and find that Asian carriers are more negatively exposed than European airlines but less exposed than North American airlines. In contrast to Treanor, Simkins, Rogers and Carter (2012), this study finds less significant negative exposure coefficients among U.S. carriers. Using a fixed effects model we reject the hypothesis that financial hedging decreases risk exposure. One possibility is that the decreased volatility in jet fuel prices over the past few years has perhaps made airlines less exposed to fuel prices and hence, financial hedging is less effective. Operational hedging, defined by two proxies for fleet diversity, does not reduce exposure significantly, either. In contrast, a one percentage point increase in fleet diversity, calculated with a dispersion index using different aircraft types, increases the risk exposure coefficient by 1.83%. On the other hand, fleet diversity, calculated with different aircraft families, increases exposure by only 0.63%. These results are supported by the global trend of airline managers to reduce fleet diversity. Airlines have reduced their fleet diversity by 7.70% or 10.77% (depending on the proxy) between 2002 and 2012. The greatest reduction can be found among European airlines with 23.12% (28.04%).     

Does Hedging Affect Firm Value? Evidence from the US Airline Industry

Does hedging add value to the firm, and if so, is the source of the added value consistent with hedging theory? We investigate jet fuel hedging behavior of firms in the US airline industry during 1992–2003 to examine whether such hedging is a source of value for these companies. We illustrate that the investment and financing climate in the airline industry conforms well to the theoretical framework of Froot, Scharfstein, and Stein (1993). In general, airline industry investment opportunities correlate positively with jet fuel costs, while higher fuel costs are consistent with lower cash flow. Given that jet fuel costs are hedgeable, airlines with a desire for expansion may find value in hedging future purchases of jet fuel. Our results show that jet fuel hedging is positively related to airline firm value. The coefficients on the hedging variables in our regression analysis suggest that the “hedging premium” is greater than the 5% documented in Allayannis and Weston (2001), and might be as large as 10%. We find that the positive relation between hedging and value increases in capital investment, and that most of the hedging premium is attributable to the interaction of hedging with investment. This result is consistent with the assertion that the principal benefit of jet fuel hedging by airlines comes from reduction of underinvestment costs.     

破解民航飞行员流动迷局

民航飞行员短缺现象越来越突出的同时,国内航空公司和飞行员之间因待遇、跳槽而引发的纠纷也越来越多。     

AIRLINE DEREGULATION AND THE PROBABILITY OF AIR CARRIER INSOLVENCY

This study investigates the effects of deregulation from the perspective of airline lenders. Airline-specific, pre- and post-deregulation insolvency probabilities are used to assess the effects on creditors. The results suggest that the financial condition of several airlines has significantly deteriorated as a by-product of deregulation, although most have been unaffected.     

Threat of entry and debt maturity: Evidence from airlines

I explore the effect of the threat posed by low-cost competitors on debt structure in the airline industry. I use the route network expansion of low-cost airlines to identify routes where the probability of future entry increases dramatically. I find that when a large portion of their market is threatened, incumbents significantly increase debt maturity before entry occurs. Overall, the main findings suggest that airlines respond to entry threats trading off the benefits of short-term financing for lower rollover risk. The results are consistent with models in which firms set their optimal debt structure in the presence of costly rollover failure.     

U.S. Airways merger: A strategic variance analysis of changes in post-merger performance

This case provides students the opportunity to apply strategic variance analysis (SVA) methodology in analyzing the performance changes realized in an airline merger. The U.S. Airways–America West merger provides an example of a complex, strategic action that simultaneously impacts firm size, unit pricing and costs, efficiency, and capacity for the combining airlines. This merger provides a rich example for the analysis since it combines U.S. Airways, a higher cost network airline that is geographically focused on the Eastern U.S., with America West, a low cost airline operating primarily along the Western U.S. The case includes merger and acquisition (M&A) theory discussing market power vs. efficiency motives for mergers and discusses the role of the U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission in evaluating M&As and their impact on markets. The case asks students to serve as consultants applying the SVA methodology to the past U.S. Airways–America West merger and provide conclusions.     

International Asset Excess Returns and Multivariate Conditional Volatilities

This paper constructs a multivariate model in relating multi-asset excess returns to their conditional variances. Applying weekly data to investigate the foreign-exchange risk premium, the evidence from a multivariate GARCH model shows that the foreign-exchange excess returns are significantly correlated with economic fundamentals such as the real interest-rate differential, long-short interest-rate spread differential, and equity-premium differential. The evidence also suggests that foreign-exchange excess returns are not independent of the conditional variances of these fundamental variables, supporting the time-varying risk-premium hypothesis.     

Usefulness of fair values for predicting banks’ future earnings: evidence from other comprehensive income and its components

This paper examines whether fair value adjustments included in other comprehensive income (OCI) predict future bank performance. It also examines whether the reliability of these estimates affects their predictive value. Using a sample of bank holding companies, we find that fair value adjustments included in OCI can predict earnings both 1 and 2 years ahead. However, not all fair value-related unrealized gains and losses included in OCI have similar implications. While net unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale securities are positively associated with future earnings, net unrealized gains and losses on derivative contracts classified as cash flow hedges are negatively associated with future earnings. We also find that reliable measurement of fair values enhances predictive value. Finally, we show that fair value adjustments recorded in OCI during the 2007–2009 financial crisis predicted future profitability, contradicting criticism that fair value accounting forced banks to record excessive downward adjustments.     

Tainted portfolios: How impairment accounting rules restrict security sales

Contrary to claims that fair value accounting exacerbated banks’ securities sales during the recent financial crisis, we present evidence that suggests – if anything – that the current impairment accounting rules served as a deterrent to selling. Specifically, because banks must provide evidence of their ‘intent and ability’ to hold securities with unrealized losses, there are strong incentives to reduce, rather than increase, security sales when market values decline to avoid ‘tainting’ their remaining securities portfolio. Validating this concern, we find that banks incur greater other‐than‐temporary impairment (OTTI) charges when they sell more securities. We then find that banks sell fewer securities when their security portfolios have larger unrealized losses (and thus larger potential impairment charges), and these results are concentrated in banks with homogenous securities portfolios, expert auditors, more experienced managers, and greater regulatory capital slack. Overall, our results suggest that – contrary to critics’ claims – the accounting rules appear to have reduced banks’ propensity to sell their securities during the financial crisis.     

The Effect of Fair Value Adjustments on Dividend Policy Under Mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards Adoption: Australian Evidence

Using a sample of firms from the financial sector of the Australian Securities Exchange, we examine the effect of the fair value adjustments of financial instruments on firms’ dividend distributions in the context of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption. We find a positive relationship between the fair value adjustments of financial instruments and firms’ dividend payouts, suggesting that the frequent use of fair value adjustments of financial instruments by financial firms following mandatory IFRS adoption has the potential to increase the proportion of transitory earnings in reported earnings and cause changes in dividend policies. Our results add to the ongoing debate on the unintended economic consequences of fair value accounting (FVA) and provide empirical support for regulators’ concerns that unrealized FVA gains from asset revaluation during booms may encourage the distribution of those unrealized gains.     

资产公允价值的信息含量及其计量——来自香港金融类上市公司的经验数据

2006年我国颁布的新会计准则广泛引入了公允价值的概念。本文以香港金融类上市公司为样本，主要研究香港公允价值的实施是否增强了会计数据的解释能力。实证结果表明，无论是按公允价值计量的金融资产期末价值还是公允价值变动产生的朱实现收益，都对公司价格和市场收益率产生了显著的增量解释能力。实证结果同时显示，投资者对公允价值计量部分资产的关注程度也要普遍高于非公允价值计量的资产。研究结果能有效消除准则制定者的顾虑，推动公允价值更为广泛的运用。     

Bank earnings and regulatory capital management using available for sale securities

Based on a large sample of publicly listed and non-listed US commercial banks from 1996 to 2011, we find robust evidence consistent with banks using realized available for sale (AFS) securities gains and losses to smooth earnings and increase low regulatory capital. We also find that (i) banks with positive earnings smooth earnings, and banks with negative earnings generally take big baths; (ii) regulatory capital constrains big baths; (iii) banks with more negative earnings and more unrealized beginning-of-quarter losses (gains) take big baths (smooth earnings); and (iv) banks with low regulatory capital and more unrealized gains realize more gains. Also, banks with negative earnings take big baths (avoid or reduce the earnings loss) if their unrealized gains are insufficient (sufficient) to offset the negative earnings. Our inferences apply to listed and non-listed banks, which indicates that the earnings management incentives do not derive solely from public capital markets. Our findings reveal that the accounting for AFS securities gains and losses enables banks to manage regulatory capital and earnings in a variety of ways.     

COVID-19 social distancing and the US service sector: What do we learn?

This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 social distancing on the US service sector. Results from four industry indexes (hotels, entertainment, restaurants and airlines) indicate that conditional correlations among index pairs exhibited substantial increases. Iterated Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS) tests in dynamic conditional correlations show that while the relationship between airlines and entertainment venues is unstable, restaurants and hotels demonstrate stable co-movement. Markov regime-switching regression analysis suggests the pandemic is affecting mainly the entertainment and airline industries, with gradual deterioration in the hotel industry, led by small-market-cap companies. However, we see no evidence of a negative impact on the restaurant industry from the pandemic in our analysis period. This may be related to Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Based on our results, we recommend employment of effective working capital and supply chain management methods in the service sector to streamline the operations of affected companies. In addition, all other sectors should utilize appropriate methods of risk measurement and should take 'Black Swans' into account to incorporate a more accurate probability of unexpected events.