财务报表国际趋同的重大进展——IASB与FASB《财务报表列报初步意见》之分析

财务报表作为公司对外财务报告的核心载体,其结构、内容及繁简在国际上充满争议。如何使财务报表最为及时、准确、有效地传递公司财务信息给使用者,是理论和实务界的共同努力方向。国际会计准则理事会(IASB)和美国财务会计准则委员会(FASB)联合发布的《财务报表列报初步意见》讨论稿提出了颠覆性的方案。针对讨论稿中提出的变革方案,我们需要从强化资产负债观、逐步引入综合收益表、加强对新报表分类模式理论研究三个方面努力,以改进我国财务报告,实现我国会计准则与国际财务报告准则持续和动态趋同。     

基金现金流、明星基金与溢出效应

本文建立动态面板数据模型,运用系统广义矩(System GMM)方法对基金现金流和基金业绩、明星基金和溢出效应的关系进行考察。结果发现,无论是从单只基金层面还是从基金系层面,基金(基金系)现金流都与基金(基金系)业绩呈显著负相关。对明星基金本身来说,表现为净现金流出;但明星基金为同属一个基金系的其他成员基金带来显著的正向溢出效应。另外,从基金系角度看,虽然存在溢出效应,明星基金的存在并没有给整个基金系带来显著的现金流入,说明基金系的造星策略并不十分有效。     

Using Asset Turnover and Profit Margin to Forecast Changes in Profitability

Financial statement analysis textbooks advocate disaggregating profitability into asset turnover and profit margin in performing financial analysis. In spite of the prominence of this technique, there is no evidence demonstrating its usefulness in a forecasting context. We provide evidence that disaggregating return on assets into asset turnover and profit margin does not provide incremental information for forecasting the change in return on assets one year ahead, but that disaggregating the change in return on assets into the change in asset turnover and the change in profit margin is useful in forecasting the change in return on assets one year ahead.     

Determinants and economic consequences of cash flow restatements

The FASB, PCAOB, SEC, and AICPA have all acknowledged that the accounting field needs to revisit the statement of cash flows (SCF). While the overall number of restatements has held steady over the past five years, the percentage of cash flow restatements (CFRs) has risen from 8.7% of all restatements in 2009 to 20.2% of all restatements in 2014. We examine the determinants of CFRs, investors’ differential beliefs about CFRs, and the information content of CFRs by focusing on abnormal trading volume and price reactions to CFRs. We then examine whether the guidance the SEC/AICPA published in early 2006 changed the information content of CFRs. Finally, since the proper classification within the SCF is a current regulatory issue, we examine whether classification shifting within the SCFs impacts the market. The market finds CFRs to be informative with some investor disagreement as shown by higher abnormal trading volume. We also find an incremental volume reaction to changes in operating cash flows after the SEC allowance period. While the market responds negatively to CFRs, we find that the market does not differentiate between whether classification shifting occurs or does not occur with the CFR. This study has implications for policymakers, auditors, and investors since it is one of the first to examine the capital market consequences of CFRs.     

财务报表分析在企业信用评价中的运用

企业信用评价是商业银行贷款风险管理的重要一环。本文针对企业信用评价体系的主要内容．提出了运用财务报袁分析企业信用的具体思路,并在此基础上,强调了运用财务报表分析时应注意的问题。     

Discussion of “Separating Winners from Losers among Low Book-to-Market Stocks using Financial Statement Analysis”

The conference paper by Mohanram (2005) provides evidence on the success of contextual financial statement analysis in the low book-to-market (i.e., glamour) stock setting. The economic benefits of the strategy are concentrated in the identification of glamour firms that will ultimately underperform the market. In contrast to traditional accounting-based anomalies, Mohanram’s growth-based trading strategy is stronger among large, heavily followed firms, suggesting that the mechanism behind the mispricing of glamour firms is different than the traditional information environment and dissemination arguments found in other settings. Despite the robustness of the reported results, the strategy faces implementation constraints due to (1) the relative costs associated with gathering industry-adjusted data and (2) the frictions and costs associated with capitalizing on expected price declines over a long horizon. Finally, the relative benefits of contextual analysis need to be assessed against the predictive benefits accruing to traditional financial statement analysis-based investment techniques.This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

金融发展对中国中小板上市公司融资约束的影响

从投资-现金流的敏感性角度出发,利用我国中小企业板上市公司在 2004-2014年的数据为研究样本,通过建模实证研究金融发展对中国中小板上市公司融资约束瓶颈的影响程度.结果表明,中国中小上市公司的投资与其内部现金流有着显著的正向关系;金融发展能够缓解中小上市公司的融资约束现象,且金融发展程度越高,对中小板上市公司的融资瓶颈约束缓释效果越强,即减缓了企业的投资-现金流敏感性.     

Does reporting position affect the pricing of the volatility of comprehensive income?

The FASB changed the reporting policy for comprehensive income (CI) by issuing ASU No. 2011-05, which requires CI be reported in performance statements (i.e., either a single income statement with net income or a separate statement of CI following the income statement) rather than the previously allowed equity statements. We examine whether the change in reporting position of CI led to higher market pricing of CI volatility incremental to NI volatility (“incremental CI volatility”), as measured by the price-earnings relationship. We find that the market pricing of incremental CI volatility increased from the pre- to the post-ASU period for non-financial firms forced to change the reporting position of CI from equity to performance statements. The increase is more prominent for firms that switched to the income statement than for firms that switched to a separate statement of CI. Further, we find that the increased market pricing of incremental CI volatility translates into lower valuation weights on other comprehensive income.     

金融发展影响了公司成熟度与现金股利政策的关系吗?

选取留存收益股权比反映公司成熟度,研究不同金融发展水平下,公司成熟度与现金股利的关系,实证结果显示,伴随公司成熟度的提高,公司实施积极现金股利政策的动机会显著提升;金融发展在提高公司成熟度与现金股利支付倾向正向关系的同时,由于提供更多的投资机会,却弱化了公司成熟度与现金股利支付水平的正向关系。进一步研究发现,金融发展水平的提升能够推迟成熟公司首次对外支付现金股利的时机;其对公司成熟度与现金股利政策关系的影响作用主要源于金融发展的"治理效应"路径;将金融发展分为信贷市场发展和股权市场发展,发现与信贷市场促进公司成熟度与现金股利支付倾向正相关关系不同,股权市场抑制了公司成熟度与现金股利支付倾向及支付水平的正相关关系。     

保险公司资产负债管理技术及指标研究

保险公司的经营特点及其所面临的风险决定了资产负债管理是保险业的管理核心之一。上世纪末的利差损问题无疑引起了保险业对资产负债管理的重视。但是目前国内保险业的资产负债管理无论在公司实务上还是监管上仍存在着诸多不足。本文尝试从资产负债管理的历史出发,介绍资产负债管理的理论、监管与实务情况,创新之处在于对大量的公司实务情况进行了调研及梳理,并对理论、实务与监管之间的联系及发展作出了一定的思考。     

A multicriteria model for portfolio management

The paper presents a new model to support the selection of a portfolio of stocks based on the results of the fieldwork undertaken with fund managers and using direct rating, MACBETH and optimisation techniques. The model consists of defining a benchmark portfolio (in this case, the Dow Jones Eurostoxx50) and scoring its different stocks according to several expected return criteria. Based on this multicriteria value analysis, a procedure is proposed to suggest adjustments to the proportions of the stocks in the portfolio. Finally, the risk of this modified portfolio is taken into consideration in an optimization module that includes constraints concerning the limits of variation for the proportion of each stock.     

Changes in accounting estimates: An update of priors or an earnings management strategy of “last resort”?

Evidence from prior research is mixed about whether accounting estimate changes are strategically motivated, on average, or whether they reflect new or updated information. To interpret this difference, we investigate, by category of material changes in accounting estimates, the association between estimate changes and subsequent restatements. We also explore the determinants of both income-increasing and income-decreasing estimate changes for different categories of estimate changes. We find that the motivations for and the determinants of estimate changes depend on the type of change and on whether the changes in estimates are income-increasing or income-decreasing. Overall, we conclude that when companies are motivated to bias earnings and they cannot do so by manipulating other within generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) accruals, they sometimes resort to using estimate changes. Our more detailed investigation of estimate changes at the account level suggests a more nuanced view of the determinants of changes in accounting estimates. We develop a more complete model of the determinants of changes in accounting estimates than those used in this emerging literature, which should be of interest to accounting academics, regulators, audit practitioners and audit committee members.     

The Differential Persistence of Accruals and Cash Flows for Future Operating Income versus Future Profitability

Prior research provides evidence that a higher proportion of accrued relative to cash earnings is associated with lower earnings performance in the subsequent fiscal year. The result has been widely interpreted as indicative of higher levels of operating accruals relative to cash flows foreshadowing a subsequent earnings reversal, and thus signaling earnings management. We note, however, that earnings performance in prior studies is typically defined as one-year-ahead operating income divided by one-year-ahead invested capital, or a measure of profitability. We find that accruals are more highly associated than cash flows with invested capital in the denominator of the profitability measure. In contrast, accruals and cash flows have no differential relation to one-year-ahead operating income. The evidence is not consistent with accruals having a reversal effect on earnings. This suggests that the lower persistence of accruals versus cash flows may not be due to earnings management but may rather be due to the effect of growth on future profitability.     

Contextual Fundamental Analysis Through the Prediction of Extreme Returns

This study examines the usefulness of contextual fundamental analysis for the prediction of extreme stock returns. Specifically, we use a two-stage approach to predict firms that are about to experience an extreme (up or down) price movement in the next quarter. In the first stage, we define the context for analysis by identifying extreme performers; in the second stage we develop a context-specific forecasting model to separate winners from losers. We show that extreme performers share many common market-related attributes, and that the incremental forecasting power of accounting variables with respect to future returns increases after controlling for these attributes. Collectively, these results illustrate the usefulness of conducting fundamental analysis in context.     

Hull House: An autopsy of not-for-profit financial accountability

Analyzing financial information for Hull House, an iconic not-for-profit organization, students are asked to explore the clues to its unfortunate demise. Hull House filed for bankruptcy in 2012 after 123 years of service to the Chicago community. Evaluating the reported financial data from Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Forms 990, we seek to determine causes for this event and identify issues the board of trustees might have addressed in the years leading up to Hull House’s ruin that may have changed the outcome for this not-for-profit organization and its 60,000 clients. We also investigate the changing responsibilities of an organization’s leadership as it enters the “zone of insolvency.” This case requires real-life application of financial analysis to the not-for-profit accounting data provided by IRS Forms 990, which are publicly available on the website www.GuideStar.org.