Researching Preferences,Valuation and Hypothetical Bias

A number of recent papers in environmental economics have focused on the process of researching preferences – agents are uncertain about preferences but with effort may narrow their uncertainty. This issue has arisen in formulating bids in contingent valuation (CV) as well as the debate over the divergence between WTP and WTA. In the context of CV, it has been suggested that the hypothetical nature of the preference elicitation process biases responses. This paper provides both a theoretical model and experimental evidence to contribute to this debate. The model is a model of competitive bidding for a private good with two components that are particularly relevant to the debate. The first component is that bidders are unsure of their own value for the private good but may purchase information about their own value (researching preferences). The second component is that there is a probability that the auction is hypothetical – that the winning bidder will not get the private good and will not pay the winning bid. The experiment tests this theoretical model of bidding equilibrium and analyzes the effects of variations in the parameters (hypotheticalness, information costs and number of agents) on the endogenous variables (such as the proportion of bidders who become informed and the winning bid). Experimental results suggest that an increase in the hypotheticalness of an auction tends to decrease the likelihood that bidders pay for information on their valuation with an ambiguous effect on the winning bid.      

Identifying the scope effect on a meta-analysis of biodiversity valuation studies

Insensitivity to scope is an issue of much debate in contingent valuation (CV) even today. Although the literature about insensitivity to scope is abundant, the reasons for it are not yet well known. Through a meta-analysis of CV studies of biodiversity, the treatment of the different possible measures of the quantity of the good is explored in relation to scope sensitivity. Overall, the findings suggest that CV results are sensitive to the amount of the good being valued, although the result depends on how the environmental change is measured. Results support the use of absolute sizes when conducting CV studies.     

Modelling Heterogeneity and Uncertainty in Contingent Valuation: an Application to the Valuation of Informal Care

Both the lack of market data and the need to adopt a more holistic approach in the valuation of non‐market activities within health care have pointed towards the use of contingent valuation (CV) methods. However, to date, few studies have employed such techniques to value informal care, despite its provision being an important public policy question. We propose an analytical framework that through the use of random parameters models and respondents' certainty scales can incorporate both unobserved and observed heterogeneity in the CV modelling. This is the first CV study of informal care for Scotland (UK) and a £7.68 per hour value is estimated.     

Contribution of Contingent Valuation and Other Stated Preference Methods to Evaluation of Environmental Policy

Some form of stated preference method is essential for comprehensive evaluation of environmental policy options. The two most important stated preference methods are contingent valuation (CV) and choice modelling. I identify and discuss the major challenges facing CV and choice modelling researchers. Choice modelling applications to environmental valuation are comparatively recent, so the emphasis in this paper is on the more extensive body of CV research. The development of CV has been characterised by a (generally) constructive debate both within the economics profession, and between economists, philosophers, psychologists and other social scientists. As a result, much has been learnt about the nature of non-market economic values and how they might be measured. Important issues are the extent to which existing stated preference methods accurately represent individuals' values, and provide valid and reliable measures of changes in economic welfare. I review each of these issues in the light of recent theoretical and empirical work, identify the major outstanding problems, and indicate areas where progress is being made. I argue that the problems are solvable, and that eventually a theoretically sound and empirically effective method will be developed.     

Valuing water level changes in reservoirs using two stated preference approaches: An exploration of validity

The combination of travel cost (TCM) and contingent behaviour (CB) methods is a relatively new research avenue in the recreational valuation community. Contrary to simple TCM applications, TCM-CB facilitates the ex ante valuation of marginal welfare effects resulting from environmental quality or quantity changes, similar to the contingent valuation method (CV). Even though TCM-CB is highly policy relevant, i.e. to inform changes in management regimes at recreational sites, the validity of estimates has hardly received any attention and little is known about the performance of TCM-CB compared to CV. In this paper, TCM-CB and CV are explored with respect to several validity tests in a case study on the recreational effects of water level changes in a reservoir. Overall, the findings reveal that TCM-CB and CV perform equally well in terms of theoretical validity, but that the marginal recreational value varies significantly between the two methods. We also observe that both methods face similar internal difficulties with respect to the stability of values when the order of a set of valuation questions is changed.     

Economic valuation of biodiversity: A comparative study

In recent years, an intensive debate on the economic valuation of biodiversity has entered the environmental-economics literature. The present paper seeks to offer first a critical review of key concepts that are essential for a proper understanding of such evaluation issues. Particular attention is given here to various monetary valuation approaches and to comparative (i.e., meta-analytical) methods from the perspective of conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity. Several illustrative examples are presented in order to highlight the usefulness of the various approaches discussed. Next, an attempt is made to infer general findings and lessons from past applied research by means of meta-analysis. In this context, a multi-dimensional technique originating from the field of artificial intelligence is deployed. It allows us to identify the most important variables responsible for changes in economic estimates of biodiversity.     

The impact of behavioural risk-reduction interventions on willingness to pay to avoid sexually transmitted infections: a stated preference study of justice-involved youth

Risky health behaviours, such as smoking, drinking and risky sex, are substantial contributors to the U.S. morbidity rates and healthcare costs. While economic models typically regard preferences as stable, a growing literature suggests that information, including how it interacts with intentions and attitudes, plays an important role in unhealthy behaviours. Relatedly, a large health literature demonstrates that theory-based behavioural interventions can successfully change risky behaviour. This study uses the contingent valuation (CV) survey method to investigate the impact of behavioural interventions on a novel outcome measure: the willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid the consequences associated with risky behaviour. Using novel pre- and post-intervention data from Project MARS (Motivating Adolescents to Reduce Sexual Risk), this study estimates the impact of the intervention on elicited WTP to avoid sexually transmitted infections (STIs). It is found that after the intervention, participants’ elicited WTP to avoid STIs were significantly higher, and more sensitive to differences in infection severity. These results suggest that the intervention may affect risky sexual behaviour by changing the perceived value of avoiding the consequences of risky sexual behaviour. Additionally, these findings contribute to an ongoing debate regarding the construct validity of CV studies in health economics.     

Improving the Performance of Contingent Valuation Studies in Developing Countries

This paper discusses three main reasons why so many of the contingentvaluation studies conducted in developing countries are so bad. First,the contingent valuation surveys themselves are often poorly administeredand executed. Second, contingent valuation scenarios are often very poorlycrafted. Third, few CV studies conducted in developing countries aredesigned to test whether some of the key assumptions that the researchermade were the right ones, and whether the results are robust with respectto simple variations in research design and survey method. The paper concludesthat research on stated preference methods in developing countries iscritically important to the successful implementation of these methodsbecause (1) there is no empirical evidence to suggest that rapid,”streamlined” CV surveys yield reliable, accurate results, and (2)there is a significant risk that the current push for cheaper, simplerCV studies could discredit the methodology itself. Moreover, the policydebates to which CV researchers are asked to contribute are often oftremendous importance to the well-being of households in developingcountries. Because the costs of policy mistakes can prove tragic, itis critical that VC researchers push for excellence in this researchenterprise and that funding agencies think more carefully about thevalue of policy-relevant information in the fields in which thecontingent valuation method is being used to study household preferencesand behavior (e.g., water and sanitation services, urban air pollution,soil erosion, deforestation, biodiversity, watershed management,ecosystem valuation, vaccines for the poor).     

Valuing Global Ecosystem Services: What Do European Experts Say? Applying the Delphi Method to Contingent Valuation of the Amazon Rainforest

Valuing global public goods like the Amazon rainforest by stated preference surveys of a representative sample of the global population would be very costly and time consuming. We explore the use of the Delphi Method in contingent valuation (CV) by asking a panel of 49 European environmental valuation experts in two rounds what they think would be the result if a European CV survey of Amazon Rainforest protection plans was conducted. The experts’ best guess for the mean willingness-to-pay (WTP) by European households for preserving the current Amazon Rainforest, and thus avoiding a predicted loss in forest area by 2050 from currently 85% to 60% of the original forest in the 1970s, was 28 € per household annually as an additional income tax. Aggregated over all European households this amounts to about 8.4 billion € annually. This preliminary estimate indicate that WTP of distant beneficiaries is substantial, and could justify preservation of global ecosystem services where aggregated benefits of the local population often do not exceed the opportunity costs of preservation in terms of lost income from commercial activities. The income elasticity of WTP with respect to per-capita income in the European countries is 0.5–0.6. Recognizing the limitations and assumptions of the Delphi CV method, it could still be a time saving and cost-effective benefit transfer tool for providing international donors with much needed order-of-magnitude estimates of the non-use value of ecosystem services of global significance.     

Asking for Individual or Household Willingness to Pay for Environmental Goods?

The aggregate welfare measure for a change in the provision of a public good derived from a contingent valuation (CV) survey will be higher if the same elicited mean willingness to pay (WTP) is added up over individuals rather than households. A trivial fact, however, once respondents are part of multi-person households, it becomes almost impossible to elicit an “uncontaminated” WTP measure that with some degree of confidence can be aggregated over one or the other response unit. The literature is mostly silent about which response unit to use in WTP questions, and in some CV studies it is even unclear which type has actually been applied. We test for differences between individual and household WTP in a novel, web-administered, split-sample CV survey asking WTP for preserving biodiversity in old-growth forests in Norway. Two samples are asked both types of questions, but in reverse order, followed by a question with an item battery trying to reveal why WTP may differ. We find in a test between samples that the WTP respondents state on behalf of their households is not significantly different from their individual WTP. However, within the same sample, household WTP is significantly higher than individual WTP; in particular if respondents are asked to state individual before household WTP. Our results suggest that using individual WTP as the response unit may overestimate aggregate WTP. Thus, the choice of response format needs to be explicitly and carefully addressed in CV questionnaire design and further research in order to avoid the risk of unprofitable projects passing the benefit-cost test.

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Assessing the Legitimacy of Stem Cell Research: An Instrumental Valuation Principle Approach

Research on embryonic stem cells has elicited much public and political debate. By promoting the use of the Instrumental Valuation Principle, it is argued here that institutionalists can offer a framework for policy analysis that ensures that the debate on stem cell research is informed by the instrumental use of knowledge and that it is not controlled by upper-level hegemonic powers. Our contention is that the first decade following the initial harvesting of human embryonic stem cells (1998-2008) in the United States was characterized by institutional and policy responses that created a non-deliberative environment that hindered the process of instrumental valuation of stem cell research. This paper concludes that the current conditions of limited corporate involvement are favorable toward a democratic discussion of the legitimacy of stem cell research, but this will require overt challenges to political elites' attempts to control the creation and flow of instrumental knowledge on stem cell research.     

A Learning Design for Reducing Hypothetical Bias in the Contingent Valuation Method

Over the last few years a great deal of research has focussed on hypothetical bias in value estimates obtained with the contingent valuation (CV) method and on means for ameliorating if not eliminating such bias. To date, efforts to eliminate hypothetical bias have relied on calibration techniques or on word-smithing of one kind or another to induce subjects to provide responses to hypothetical questions that mimic responses made by subjects facing actual payments in the valuation experiment. This paper introduces a different approach for eliminating hypothetical bias. A design for a CV survey format is presented which provides subjects with the opportunity to learn how the CV institution works. Sequential referenda are conducted where respondents gain experience in CV settings by participating in both hypothetical and real referenda. The logic of this Learning Design is a straightforward application of the trials process used in experimental economics. We demonstrate that the Learning Design is effective in eliminating hypothetical bias in surveys concerning donations to two different public goods.     

The value relevance of brand valuation

The reports published by independent parties are often used to provide an estimation of brands due to the lack of literature and best practices regarding which brand valuation method is more value relevant and reliable than another. Over the last several years, brand valuation debate is growing in importance because of the need to provide a value of intangibles for different purposes. The purpose of this study is two-fold. First, we aim to understand whether brand valuation related to listed companies provided by three independent agencies is value relevant and therefore whether these brand valuations are taken into consideration by investors in their decision-making process. Second, we assess which of the three methods reflects the stock markets in a better way. We analyse a sample of 71 brands valuated by Interbrand, Brand Finance and BrandZ from 2013 to 2015. The results show that brand valuation provided by the independent agencies is value relevant; in addition, they reveal that the Brand Finance method, based on the royalty relief approach, is more value relevant than the others. This study contributes to the extant literature on value relevance by providing evidence on the impact of stock prices of brand agencies’ valuation.     

Reconsidering Heterogeneity and Aggregation Issues in Environmental Valuation: A Multi-attribute Approach

The economic valuation of complex environmental goods (composed of multiple attributes) is an expanding field of research in ecological and environmental economics. However, several issues are still subjects of debate. This paper focuses on three of them: the linearity of the valuation function in the attributes; aggregation criteria for obtaining social values; and the heterogeneity of individuals’ utility functions. A methodological approach based on Multi-attribute Utility Theory, which enables us to contrast the impact of these concerns on the valuation of environmental goods, is proposed. We employ the methodology to value a protected natural area and, from the results obtained, we can conclude that the non-linearity and the heterogeneity of the individual utility function are relevant aspects of environmental valuation that need to be taken into account when valuing environmental goods.     

More than total economic value: How to combine economic valuation of biodiversity with ecological resilience

The assessment of total economic value has become a pragmatic and popular approach in nature valuation, yet criticisms have been raised. One major point of critique is that total economic value bases the monetary value of ecosystems purely on the flow of human benefits of services of ecosystems and consequently ignores questions of sustainable use of natural capital per se. This paper explains why total economic value by itself is in principle an inadequate concept to guide sustainable use of ecosystems and gives an overview of essential ecological theory that needs to be taken into account in addition to total economic value to fully include ecosystem sustainability. The paper concludes with a framework for combining ecological theory with economic valuation. The key elements here are theoretical ecological insights about ecosystem resilience and portfolio theory which offers an economic perspective on investment in biodiversity. Portfolio theory puts total economic value in a framework where investment in biodiversity is expanded to cover functional diversity and mobile link species in order to maintain ecosystem resilience and so fosters sustainable use of ecosystems.     

Sequencing and the Adding-up Property in Contingent Valuation of Endangered Species: Are Contingent Non-Use Values Economic Values?

This paper presents tests of the theoretical validity of the contingent valuation (CV) method. The validity of CV is especially a concern when involving environmental goods with a predominant non-use value. One test of theoretical validity is the adding-up property that implies that a specific good should be equally valued irrespectively of it is being valued directly or built-up sequentially. In this CV study four independent sub-samples stated willingness to pay for the same composite good, or package, using different sequences. One sub-sample valued the composite good directly, while two sub-samples faced built-up sequences valuing first subsets of this composite good. A fourth sub-sample valued the composite good from a dividing-out approach, facing first the valuation of a larger multi-package. Theoretically expected sequencing effects were observed; the subset goods obtained higher values earlier in a sequence, and the dividing-out approach decreased the stated value for the composite good. Most importantly, these CV data did pass the tests of the adding-up property.     

The Empirics of Wetland Valuation: A Comprehensive Summary and a Meta-Analysis of the Literature

Wetlands are highly productive ecosystems, providing a number of goods and services that are of value to people. The open-access nature and the public-good characteristics of wetlands often result in these regions being undervalued in decisions relating to their use and conservation. There is now a substantial literature on wetland valuation, including two meta-analyses that examine subsets of the available wetland valuation literature. We collected over 190 wetland valuation studies, providing 215 value observations, in order to present a more comprehensive meta-analysis of the valuation literature that includes tropical wetlands (e.g., mangroves), estimates from diverse valuation methodologies, and a broader range of wetland services (e.g., biodiversity value). We also aim for a more comprehensive geographical coverage. We find that socio-economic variables, such as income and population density, that are often omitted from such analyses are important in explaining wetland value. We also assess the prospects for using this analysis for out-of-sample value transfer, and find average transfer errors of 74%, with just under one-fifth of the transfers showing errors of 10% or less. † This paper has not been submitted elsewhere in identical or similar form, nor will it be during the first three months after its submission to the Publisher.     

Reducing protest responses by deliberative monetary valuation: Improving the validity of biodiversity valuation

This paper focuses on examining the validity of biodiversity valuation methodologies. The results of a group deliberation technique (deliberative monetary valuation) are compared to those derived from a contingent valuation (CV) survey using the same environmental topic. Evidence is here presented that DMV can address some of the limitations of CV; namely a prevalence for lexicographic preference ordering due to psychological reasons and the lack of a priori or well-formed preferences. Both of these methodological shortcomings can result in protest responses which decrease the external validity of results. It is common environmental valuation methodology practice to exclude protest responses from the analysis on the grounds that they are illegitimate choices, thus the sample and consequently the environmental valuation analysis may become less representative of the population. An advantage of the DMV methodology is that it was found to significantly reduce the rate of protest responses to less than half (from 29% to 13%). Furthermore, DMV significantly increased the proportion of positive bids but not the amounts contributed. In relation to preference formation issues, we suggest rethinking the current practice of the DMV method, and propose dedicating the entire initial discussion session to introducing the good outside of a valuation context.     

Willingness to Pay to Reduce Mortality Risks: Evidence from a Three-Country Contingent Valuation Study

Valuing a change in the risk of death is a key input into the calculation of the benefits of environmental policies that save lives. Typically such risks are monetized using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL). Since the majority of the lives saved by environmental policies are those of older persons, there has been much recent debate about whether the VSL should be lower for the elderly to reflect their fewer remaining life years. We conducted a contingent valuation survey in the UK, Italy and France designed to answer this question. The survey was administered in these three countries following a standardized protocol. Our results suggest that the VSL is €1.022 million or €2.264 million, depending on whether we use median or mean WTP. The VSL is not significantly lower for older persons, but is higher for persons who have been admitted to a hospital or emergency room for cardiovascular and respiratory problems. Income is positively and significantly associated with WTP. The income elasticities of the WTP increase gradually with income levels and are between 0.15 and 0.5 for current income levels in EU countries. We use the responses to the WTP questions to estimate the value of an extension in remaining life expectancy. The value of a loss of one year’s life expectancy is €54,000 or €163,000.