Air transport security user charge pricing: An investigation of flat per-passenger charge vs. Ad Valorem user charge schemes

Following the 9/11 terrorist incidence, most countries introduced security charges on air travel, mostly in the form of flat rate per passenger. However, it is clear that such flat rate per passenger may not be socially optimal as implied by previous studies on airport pricing including those utilizing Ramsey pricing. Thus, an alternative pricing scheme may enhance social welfare. In this paper, recognizing the competitive reality of today’s airline markets we formulate and solve numerically a differentiated duopoly model in order to compare welfare implications of adopting the two most convenient forms of aviation security pricing: (1) charging a flat rate per passenger; and (2) charging Ad Valorem user fees. Since obtaining meaningful analytical results requires unrealistically restrictive assumptions, we designed a numerical experiment and conducted over 5000 simulations using a wide range of possible values of firms’ conduct parameters, extent of product differentiation, and market share split between full service airline (FSA) and low cost carrier (LCC). Our results show that Ad Valorem user fee is superior to the current policy of charging flat rate security fee in all cases except for very few unrealistic cases. The same conclusion can be directly applied to all other per-passenger fees or taxes being collected by governments and/or airports. This is an important finding given that taxes and user charges now account for up to 30% of the total ticket prices of short distance domestic travel in US.     

Investigating the effects of economies of scope on firms’ pricing behavior: Empirical evidence from the US domestic airline industry

This study investigates to what extent cross-product (belly cargo) output affects (passenger ticket) prices in the US domestic airline industry. The empirical analysis indicates that greater cargo volumes generally result in lower air fares, presumably as a result of the airlines’ realization of economies of scope. This magnitude of this price effect, however, depends on certain firm and route market characteristics. The findings of this study add to extant research on economies of scope, multi-product yield management and airline pricing and provide important insights for policy makers and airline managers alike.     

The impact of COVID-19 on airline passenger travel behavior: An exploratory analysis on the Chinese aviation market

China was the first airline market in the world to be hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. It has been gradually recovering as the pandemic is largely contained domestically. However, with the global pandemic spread and great uncertainty, there has been a remarkable change in airline passengers’ travel behavior. This paper collected air passenger-level data from TravelSky in the Chinese market. In addition to the analyses on aggregate passenger flow patterns, this paper explores changes in airline passenger travel behavior, such as ticket booking time, age distribution of passengers, refunds and ticket changes, and passenger arrival time at airports. This is one of the first studies to focus on micro-level changes in airline passenger travel behavior by using objective passenger-level data. The pandemic-induced psychological changes in air travelers are explored, providing useful managerial and policymaking implications for the normalization of the pandemic and the recovery of the airline market in the post-pandemic era.     

Mapping causalities of airline dynamics in long-haul air transport markets

The introduction of low-cost air transport services to short-haul routes has significantly shaped the structure of this market segment. Recent research investigates and discusses the transferability of the low-cost carrier business model to long-haul routes and identifies respective challenges such as lower cost advantages over the competing full-service network business model. Our paper complements the existing research with a review of airline dynamics in long-haul air transport markets and the subsequent development of a causal loop diagram of the transatlantic air transport market using systems thinking. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of specific characteristics regarding airline operations in the transatlantic air transport market to investigate the market potential of long-haul low-cost carriers competing with full-service network carriers in this market. We implement these characteristics in a causal loop diagram which comprises the most important elements of and causalities within the long-haul air transport market that affect the development of these elements. These include the generation of transatlantic air transport demand, passenger choice, and airline ticket price and fleet development. The causal loop diagram serves as a framework for qualitative investigation of the market potential of long-haul low-cost services. The paper proves systems thinking to be a feasible approach to map causalities based on knowledge from scientific literature.     

Price perception of online airline ticket shoppers

This study combines the concept of price perception with Internet users’ behavior as a theoretical framework in which to portray price perception among consumers with different choices of retail channels. The findings of a survey conducted in Taiwan show that online airline ticket shoppers tend to perceive price more negatively than offline airline ticket shoppers and assignors. Consumers are likely to adopt Internet as their retail channel for airline ticket if they are more concerned about value for money and lower prices. These consumers are also tended to be the information sources to their acquaintances.     

Homogeneous service with heterogeneous products: Relationships among airline ticket fares and purchase fences

A fare table derived from homogeneous service is essential for revenue management applications in the airline industry. Restrictions or so-called fences are usually regarded as a useful tool to differentiate homogeneous seat service. Nevertheless, the relationships among fares and fences are not yet clear. This study aims to investigate passengers’ preferences on the choice of ticket alternatives describing by fares and fences and using Taiwan domestic air travel as an example. Regarding the attributes that an airline ticket may be attached such as departure time, booking time, ticket validity, changing fee, refund and fare, stated preference questionnaires are developed with multiple hypothetical scenarios for respondents to select in the experiment. 398 valid samples are collected for the logit model analysis. With the use of mixed logit model to accommodate both passengers’ heterogeneity and also the issue of relevant alternatives in the experiment, the results show statistical significance of all applied attributes with correct signs. In addition, passengers possess different attitudes on the fence of booking time, ticket validity, changing fee, and fare. Willingness-to-pay of each fence is further calculated to ultimately generate a fare table based on the combination of fences for practice use.     

Impact of e-business on air travel markets: Distribution of airline tickets in Korea

Early e-business activity in the airline industry was limited to the provision of flight schedule information to customers on websites. Recently, however, many airlines have expanded the capability of their web sites for selling tickets to make use of this cheap distribution channel. Here, we explore the impacts of airline e-business on the performance of air ticket distribution channels. Through a conjoint analysis, we suggest a model to estimate the change of market sales for each distribution channel. The impact of e-business on air travel markets and some implications on e-business strategy for both airlines and travel agents are also identified through an empirical survey.     

Analysis of Iranian passengers' behavior in choosing type of carrier in international air travel to East Asia

Increased demand for East Asia flights from Tehran has intensified competition between Iranian and foreign carriers. In addition, the entrance of low-cost carriers (LCC) will make this competitive market even more intense. In this condition, carriers are striving to gain more market share by improving services and discounting their fares. Therefore, analyzing air travel demand is valuable for carriers' long term and short term planning. This study empirically investigates passengers' behavior in choosing five types of carriers in many groups of passengers using multinomial logit (MNL) and nested logit (NL) models. The data were collected through the stated preference (SP) questionnaire designed based on orthogonal main-effect. The main survey was conducted in the Imam Khomeini International (IKI) airport in July 2013 where 480 questionnaires were collected through face-to-face interviews. The results show that the ticket fare, the possibility of travel on desired date and time, international air travel experience, Frequent-flyer program (FFP) membership status, marital status, and gender are statistically significant contributors in explaining carrier choice. Interaction effects between trip purpose and ticket fare are statistically significant in choosing carriers. The results further indicate that business travelers are more willing to pay than non-business travelers for flights on desired date and time, although varying by type of carrier.     

铁路、民航客运市场竞争焦点及对策探讨

由于民航在机场建设和航线开发上的不断发展,使750～1500km范围内的客运市场成为与铁路竞争的焦点。随着民航票价的下浮,运营成本和人工成本的进一步降低,将对铁路形成更大的挑战。为此,铁路必须明确客运市场竞争重点,通过采取加强管理、降低戍本,继续提速改造、提高运输质量等措施,提高铁路的综合竞争力。     

Dynamic analysis of air travel demand in competitive island markets

This paper describes a dynamic demand model, referred to as dynamic abstract mode model, for estimating both the short- and long-term responses of air passengers to changes in relative air-sea travel cost components in competitive markets. The implementation of the model in the competitive market of Aegean islands in Greece demonstrates the importance of considering the past volumes of air passengers and relative travel cost components to explain current air travel demand.     

Commodity price pass-through in the US airline industry and the hidden perks of consolidation

How do changing jet fuel prices impact airline revenues? As expenses for jet fuel are one of the most relevant cost factors for airlines, their economic success largely depends on the ability to match changes on the cost side with an adaption on the revenue side. While previous studies primarily focused on the impact of fuel price changes to consumer prices, this paper empirically examines the ability of US airlines to pass-through lagged jet fuel prices to scaled operating revenues from an airline driven perspective. Our results suggest that the extent to which an exogenous increase in fuel prices can be passed on to revenues will deviate according to the competitive situation faced by an airline. Based on these findings our research should also be of interest for European policy makers who are discussing actions to exogenously increase jet fuel prices due to environmental reasons.     

Have the major forces driving leisure airline traffic changed?

Here, we examine the major forces that are driving leisure airline traffic to assess whether these have changed in recent years. Initially this is undertaken by considering global patterns of airline and tourism demand and then by a more detailed investigation of the UK situation. The research indicates that airline demand is becoming less sensitive to income changes and also that the share of income spent on air travel is not showing much growth. Both of these suggest that airline demand may be becoming more mature, with growth being increasingly driven by price reductions rather than income changes. Moreover, evidence from the UK shows that changing customer preferences, and subsequent industry developments to accommodate these, appear to be having a significant impact on the demand for different types of leisure air trips.     

A case study: The impact of low-cost carriers on inbound tourism of Saudi Arabia

This study investigates the impact of low-cost carriers (LCCs) on Saudi Arabia's tourism demand. It also provides an understanding of the relationship between air transport development and tourism development in the Gulf region. The Box–Jenkins SARIMA-X models were employed to model and forecast international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia, using monthly international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia from July 2010 to December 2015. The forecasting models were significantly accurate, with lower values of MAPE, MAP, and RMSE. The findings suggest that an increase in airline capacity, religious travel, and airline competition are associated with the increasing international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia. This also indicates that there is a positive relationship between air transport development and tourism development. Further aviation liberalisation in the Gulf region is discussed to give opportunities for the region's LCCs to increase their share of the increasing air travel demand, thereby enhancing tourism development.     

Modeling air travelers’ choice of flight departure and return dates on long holiday weekends

Air travel demand is typically high on long holidays. Understanding factors that influence the choice of air travelers with respect to their departure and return dates on long holidays can help airlines make effective decisions on pricing, ticket sales, and scheduling. We conduct a stated preference survey to examine the preferences of low-cost airline travelers on a particular holiday weekend. A temporally correlated logit model is developed to account for the temporal correlation of day-of-the-week alternatives. The results indicate that airfare is the key variable affecting air travel date choices. The utility of day alternatives decreases when more leave days are required before the holiday begins. Departure dates before the beginning of the holiday weekend and return dates after the end of the holiday are highly substitutable. The low-fare strategy comprising early departures and late returns can effectively increase the load factor of off-peak flights on long holiday weekends.     

Anticipating long-distance travel shifts due to self-driving vehicles

Increasing population and travel demand has prompted new efforts to model travel demand across the United States. One such model is rJourney that estimates travel demand among thousands of regions and models mode and destination choice. rJourney includes records representing 1.17 billion long-distance trips throughout the year 2010. Although inter-regional impacts caused by an increase of automated vehicles (AVs) has been investigated, there is little research on inter-regional travel and how longer distance destination and mode choices will change. Because of conveniences offered by AVs, the value of travel time of drivers is expected to fall, thus reducing the generalized cost of AV travel. To initially analyze the impacts of AVs in the United States, a new AV mode was added to a subset of the rJourney mode and destination choice models. With an initial scenario assuming an operating cost of AVs that is 118% of traditional cars, two outcomes are observed that are solely based on model results. First, the attractiveness of AVs severely digs into the airline travel market, reducing airline revenues to 53%. Second, the introduction of AVs results in a shift of destination choice, increasing travel in further distances for personal vehicles, but favoring closer distances across all modes, for an overall 6.7% decline in US passenger-miles traveled on existing long-distance trips. While this preliminary research has revealed an initial perspective on how an existing model can support AVs, the increasing availability of data as AVs emerge will refine nationwide long-distance modeling.     

Latent class models of international air carrier choice

This paper uses a market segmentation approach to identify airline passengers’ potential segments and preferences toward international air carriers. The modeling approaches consist of the stated preference method and the latent class model. The stated choice experiments were designed based on service attributes in the international airline choice context. Empirical data was collected from airline passengers who have flown from Taipei to Tokyo or from Taipei to Hong Kong. The latent class model accommodating preference heterogeneity outperforms the multinomial logit model as indication of a better approach to analyze airline choice behavior. The latent class model with individual socioeconomic and trip characteristics in segment membership functions also improved model fit relative to the corresponding latent class model without individual characteristics. The values of willingness to pay for service attribute improvements vary across international air routes and segments. Passengers are willing to pay more for better service quality. In order to develop effective marketing and operational strategies for the international air travel market, this study highlights the importance of exploring airline choice behaviors by routes and segments.     

Estimating welfare changes from efficient pricing in public bus transit in India

Three different and feasible pricing strategies for public bus transport in India are developed in a partial equilibrium framework with the objective of improving economic efficiency and ensuring revenue adequacy, namely average cost pricing, marginal cost pricing, and two-part tariffs. These are assessed not only in terms of gains in economic efficiency, but also in changes in travel demand and consumer surplus. The estimated partial equilibrium price is higher in all three pricing regimes when compared to the current price. As a result, consumer surplus falls in all three cases. The price increase is much larger with average cost pricing compared to marginal cost pricing or two-part tariffs, and hence a larger fall in demand and consumer surplus occurs due to average cost pricing. While there is a gain in economic efficiency from marginal cost pricing and two-part tariffs, this improvement comes at the expense of reduced public bus transit demand and consumer surplus, given the price inelastic public bus transit demand estimated for India. Given the mobility needs and the developmental concerns of a growing economy such as India, the challenge for policy makers is to balance the gains in economic efficiency in the public bus transit sector against other social, political, and developmental goals.     

Testing prospect theory in airline demand

The article tests for the existence of reference dependence, loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in airline demand, in the context of price responsiveness amongst low cost, regular and charter airlines. We incorporate the reference-dependent model into a mixed model to control for heterogeneity. The application finds considerable differences between reference and actual prices in decision-making, confirming that reference dependence exists. People react more strongly to price increases than to decreases relative to their reference price supporting the loss aversion phenomenon and that there is diminishing sensitivity for losses only.     

Airline emissions charges and airline networks

Emissions charges are an effective tool to control aviation carbon dioxide emissions. This paper investigates how airline emissions charges affect a monopoly airline's network choice. By considering simultaneously fully-connected, hub-spoke and mixed networks, we find that the impact of emissions charges on airline network configuration depends crucially on some relevant parameters, for example, the marginal benefit of the reduction of schedule delays and the disutility of additional travel time of connecting flights. Welfare analysis shows a discontinuity in the network configuration from the social planner's perspective and an inefficiency related to the airline's choice on mixed network.     

Tourism destination preferences of low-cost airline users in the East Midlands

Increasing demand for air travel, associated with the boom in low-cost airlines, has assisted tourism growth. Expanding opportunities from regional airports underpin an increased propensity to fly. This paper examines European tourism destination preferences and price sensitivity to fly by population segment from an air travel household survey in the East Midlands region of the United Kingdom. Of the eight typical low-cost airline destinations presented to respondents cultural locations such as Rome are preferred. Weekend break leisure trips are particularly attractive to those in employment. Price sensitivity, suggests that increasing financial pressures will have an impact upon growth, however demand for an annual holiday is important, particularly for families.