The lender of last resort

This paper develops a model of the lender of last resort (LOLR) from a Central Bank (CB) viewpoint. The model in a static setting suggests that the CB would only rescue banks which are above a threshold size, consistent with the insight of “too big to fail”. In a dynamic setting, CB’s optimal policy in liquidity support depends on the trade off between contagion and moral hazard effects. Our results show that contagion is the key factor affecting CB’s incentives in providing LOLR and they also provide a rationalization for “constructive ambiguity”.     

Systemic banks and the lender of last resort

We propose a model where systemic and non-systemic banks are exposed to liquidity shortfalls so that a lender of last resort policy is required. We find that it is socially optimal to override the decision of the central bank by the unconditional provision of liquidity support when the shortfall is large enough, i.e. in crisis times. The existence of systemic banks provides a rationale for the central bank to act as lender of last resort for non-systemic banks in a larger range of their liquidity shortfalls. However, the impact of systemic risk on the optimal allocation of the lender of last resort responsibilities for systemic banks depends on the relative size of counteracting effects.     

Bank liquidity regulation and the lender of last resort

Banks can make suboptimal liquidity choices and gamble for lender of last resort (LOLR) support. Endogenous bailout rents are driven by the need to preserve bankers' incentives under uncertain net worth. In equilibrium, banks can herd in risk management, choosing suboptimal liquidity when they expect others to do so. Optimal liquidity can be restored by quantitative requirements, but such regulation is costly. An LOLR policy incorporating bank capital information can reduce distorting rents and allow for a more efficient solution, but may only be possible in transparent economies.     

The lender of last resort and the federal safety net

Under the aegis to the New Deal, the government established a safety net consisting of deposit insurance, a lender of last resort, and regulation. In the postwar period when the inflation rate was low, the economy stable, and the bank failure rate low, the safety net appeared to be an effective instrument to deliver financial stability. In the unstable economy since the 1970s, the functioning of each element of the safety net has been questioned. A reconsideration of the role assigned to each constituent is timely. I begin with a review that brings up to date since 1933, first, the role of regulation, second, deposit insurance, and third, the lender of last resort. Finally, I discuss how each of these might be reshaped in light of the changes since the 1970s.This paper was prepared for a conference in memory of Michael J. Hamburger at the Graduate School of Business Administration, New York University, March 12, 1987.     

Identifying the effects of a lender of last resort on financial markets: Lessons from the founding of the fed

We use the founding of the Federal Reserve to identify the effects of a lender of last resort. We examine stock return and interest rate volatility during September and October, when markets were vulnerable because of financial stringency from the harvest. Stock volatility fell by 40% and interest rate volatility by more than 70% following the monetary regime change. The drop is insignificant if major panic years are omitted from the analysis, however. Because business cycle downturns occurred in the same year as financial crises, our results suggest that the existence of the Federal Reserve reduced liquidity risk.     

Lender of last resort: A contemporary perspective

This article re-examines the role of the central bank's lender of last resort (LLR) function in the current economic environment. It argues that the traditional role of protecting the money supply from collapse is no longer valid. LLR intervention is appropriate to offset temporary liquidity strains that are likely to depress asset prices and aggregate real income below their equilibrium levels. However, such support should be provided only rarely and through open market operations rather than the discount window.This article was started while the author was visiting the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The article was improved by constructive suggestions received from Douglas Evanoff, Gillian Garcia, Robert Laurent, Gerald O'Driscoll, Anna Schwartz, and an anonymous referee.     

Firms as buyers of last resort

We develop a model to explore the asset pricing implications of firms being buyers of last resort for their own stocks. Those with more ability to repurchase shares when prices drop far below fundamental value (i.e., less financially constrained firms) should have lower short-horizon return variances (controlling for fundamental variance) than other firms. Using standard proxies for financing constraints such as past repurchases and firm age, we find strong support for this predicted relation. We also find that this relation is stronger in the U.S. after 1982 when regulatory reforms lowered the legal cost of conducting repurchases as well as in countries where share repurchases are legally easier to execute.     

International lending of last resort and moral hazard: A model of IMF's catalytic finance

This paper analyzes the trade-off between official liquidity provision and debtor moral hazard in international financial crises. In the model, crises are caused by the interaction of bad fundamentals, self-fulfilling runs and policies by three classes of optimizing agents: international investors, the local government and an international official lender. Limited contingent liquidity support helps to prevent liquidity runs by raising the number of investors willing to lend to the country for any given fundamentals, i.e., it can have catalytic effects. The influence of the official lender is increasing in the size of its interventions and the precision of its information. Unlike the conventional view stressing debtor moral hazard, our model identifies circumstances in which official lending actually strengthens a government's incentive to implement desirable but costly policies.     

中国要抓住全球投资和并购的历史机遇

在第六届中国对外投资合作洽谈会开幕式暨主论坛上,中国国际经济交流中,GN理事长,中国商务部原副部长魏建国先生发表演讲,他认为：未来的15年,也就是从现在到2030年,中国有望超过美国．成为全球资本拉动、资本流动的主要国家,不仅成为吸引投资的第一大国,更是成为对外投资的第一大国。     

Default correlation: An empirical investigation of a subprime lender

In recent years, subprime lending has grown substantially as an important sector of the credit markets. This paper is concerned with the risk management of subprime loan portfolios and the importance of default correlation in measuring that risk. Using a large portfolio of residential subprime loans from an anonymous subprime lender, we show that default correlation is substantial for this lender. In particular, the significance of default correlation increases as the internal credit rating declines. Our results suggest that lenders and regulators would be well served investing in the understanding of default correlation in subprime portfolios.     

Time series models of mortgage choice: Evidence of lender influence

Unit root, co-integration, and Granger Causality are used to test specification of a generalized time series model of mortgage choice. Unit root tests determine that both the fixed-adjustable spread (FAsp) and the proportion of ARM originations (AP) are first difference stationary. The cointegrating vector between FAsp and AP was found to be weak, raising questions regarding their long-term relationship. Causality tests determined that ARM originations Granger causes the fixed-adjustable mortgage spread (APFAsp) rather than FAspAP. This result suggests that mortgage originators adjust the current FAsp spread based on last periods allocation. The coefficient vector for this specification was unstable and became increasingly negative during the 1980s.     

Identification and the narrative approach: A reply to Leeper

Contrary to the arguments of Leeper (1997), the problems that arise in VAR investigations of monetary policy do not arise with our use of the narrative approach. The apparent high predictability of our monetary-policy variable that Leeper finds is due to overfitting. And the estimated effects of our measure when variables other than output are considered are unsurprising given Leeper's specifications.     

The run-up to the global financial crisis: A longer historical view of financial liberalization,capital inflows,and asset bubbles

Using forecast error and sensitivity analyses with a vector error correction model for the US economy, we find that the specific exogenous shocks that contributed to the run-up to the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 vary across the three time periods (1980–1988; 1989–1997; and 1998–2006) that are known for distinctive historical events. Deregulation in the 1980s and capital inflows in the early and mid-1990s triggered by the collapse of the European exchange rate mechanism contributed significantly to changes in real house prices. However, capital inflows after the Asian financial crises in 1997 were driven in large part by rising asset prices. Thus, there were interesting changes in the nature of exogenous shocks and directions of causality through the three sub-periods. These results are robust even after controlling for the exogenous global factors partly determining short-run changes in capital flows, asset prices, and per capita real GDP. We conclude that all of the short run changes in response to financial deregulation starting in the 1980s, surges in capital inflows in the early 1990s, and people's expectation of ever-rising asset prices in the late 1990s and early 2000s culminated in the crisis of 2007–2009.     

Authoritarian state,global expansion and corporate social responsibility reporting: The narrative of a Chinese state-owned enterprise

This case study examines why stand-alone Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) reporting has been initiated in a Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE). Chinese SOEs have been pioneering CSR reporting since the mid–2000?s and extant literature interprets its development as no more than a consequence of government interventions. However, there is a dearth of qualitative evidence illuminating the subtle interrelationships between the global, national and internal organisational dynamics mediating CSR reporting initiative of Chinese SOEs within the authoritarian state. To fill this gap, we provide a nuanced multi-level institutional analysis of the drivers underlying the initiation of CSR reporting within the case examined.     

Budgetary change at a university: A narrative inquiry

This paper reports the results of a qualitative case study of an Australian University's implementation of a new budget model. To inform our research, we developed a theoretical framework by drawing from neo-institutional sociology, old institutional economics and technical-rational choice. A narrative inquiry was employed to elicit the stories of participants' experiences of the budgetary change in its socio-political and institutional contexts. Through this narrative inquiry, we depart from prior institutional management accounting change studies which have presented change steered by external pressures for conformity and/or legitimacy. Our study shows how budgeting, as a management accounting tool, can be viewed as a rational myth conferring social legitimacy upon organisational participants and their actions. Further, we demonstrate that the emergence of a new management accounting practice is attributed to the demands of technical-rational imperatives, and the existence of internal rationalised dynamics and norms. We highlight and analyse the role and ability of organisational actors to create budgetary change in an institutionalised higher education environment.     

Calculating profit: A historical perspective on the development of capitalism

The paper introduces the notion of different methods of calculating and analysing profitability as signatures of capitalism at different stages of development. Its point of departure is Bryer’s thesis of the capitalist mentality, which is subject to theoretical and empirical critique and developed in new directions. Interactions between the development of the productive forces and the socialisation of capital ownership jointly impact on these signatures, such that profit calculations are historically contingent. Aspects of feudalism, particularly restrictions on usury impacted upon accounting calculation, retarding their development. In the industrial revolution calculations reflected the scale and scope of specialised investment in plant, whilst the progressive socialisation of capital prompted a separate set of calculative practices. It was only in the 20th century, with the unification of large scale industry and finance capital that the modern notion of profitability as return on capital employed finally developed.     

Political relationships,global financing,and corporate transparency: Evidence from Indonesia

This study examines the role of political connections in firms’ financing strategies and their long-run performance. We view political connections as an example for domestic arrangements which can reduce the benefits of global financing. Using data from Indonesia, we find that firms with strong political connections are less likely to have publicly traded foreign securities. As a result, estimates of the performance consequences of foreign financing are severely biased if value-creating domestic arrangements such as political relationships are ignored. Connections not only alter firms’ financing strategies, they also influence long-run performance. Tracking returns across several regimes, we show that firms have difficulty re-establishing connections with a new government when their patron falls from power, leading closely connected firms to underperform under the new regime and subsequently to increase their foreign financing.     

Buildings for the Japanese information economy : Neighbourhood and resort offices

A new physical infrastructure to support activities based on communications and the transmission of information is being developed. Part of this infrastructure includes the construction of ‘intelligent’ buildings which are seen to play as important a role in improving efficiency of office workers as automation has played on the shopfloor of manufacturing industry. The location of these buildings is important. This article focuses on two types of experimental office development—neighbourhood offices and resort offices.     

A comment on the foundations of the precautionary demand for money

The model of the precautionary demand for money presented by Plessner and Reid (1980) is critically examined. It is shown that households derive no benefit from unscheduled consumption (in the model in question) and will therefore choose not to hold precautionary balances. Positive balances were obtained only by ensuring that scheduled consumption was chosen sub-optimally. However, this note confirms the Plessner-Reid hypothesis by explicitly modelling the benefits of unscheduled consumption.     

Market timing: A global endeavor

This paper employs daily fund and index data, the classical Treynor and Mazuy timing model, and two multi-factor extensions to measure the market timing ability of global asset allocation funds. These funds differ from traditional global or international funds in that they face fewer investment constraints and are known to actively shift funds across a wide variety of asset classes. When using the classical Treynor and Mazuy timing models, I find evidence of poor market timing ability. However, this evidence disappears when timing ability is examined using two multi-factor models. The results from Treynor and Mazuy are spurious since both multi-factor extensions do a much better job in explaining the variation in average fund returns.