经济集聚与经济增长——基于中国城市数据的实证分析

新经济地理学已经成为主流经济学中的一个新的亮点，有大量文献从理论和实证两方面针对经济积聚的原因及其对经济增长的影响展开了分析，然而基于中国数据的实证分析并不多。本文基于中国城市的面板数据实证检验了经济集聚对于城市人均实际GDP的影响，结果发现，如果不考虑经济集聚的内生性问题，会得到向下偏误的结果。本文运用工具变量法的回归结果表明：经济集聚具有内生性，它对于城市经济增长具有显著的促进作用。     

Rank, income and income inequality in urban China

While some workers in China attain senior professional level and senior cadre level status (Chuzhang and above), others attain middle rank including middle rank of professional and cadre (Kezhang). This aspect of the Chinese labour force has attracted surprisingly little attention in the literature, a fact which this paper aims to rectify. We define various segments of the urban population in work-active ages and use data from the Chinese Income Project (CHIP) covering eastern, central and western China for 1995 and 2002. For 2002, persons of high rank make up 3% and persons of middle rank make up 14% of persons in work-active ages.Factors that affect a person's likelihood of having high or middle rank are investigated by estimating a multinomial probit model. We find that education, age and gender strongly affect the probability of being employed as a worker of high rank. There is relatively little income inequality among workers of high rank as well as among workers of middle rank. Mean income and household wealth per capita of highly-ranked workers developed more favorably than for other segments of the population studied, and personal income is more polarized by segment in 2002 than in 1995. Workers of high rank, and to a lesser degree, workers of middle rank, are among the winners in economic terms while the increasingly large category of non-workers is the losers. Rates of return to education have increased but income function analysis indicates that this provides only a partial explanation for the increased favorable income situation for workers of high and middle ranks.     

中国经济特区的未来取向

编者按:12月下旬,全国首次经济特区授权立法联席会议在海口举行.全国人大常委会办公厅研究室、法工委负责同志,以及深圳、厦门、珠海、汕头的人大领导同志、立法工作者和来自全国各地的专家学者参加了会议.会议就特区的未来命运和立法工作中共同面临的各种问题进行交流和研讨.与会代表一致认为,在新形势下,中国的经济特区要进一步特下去,要运用特别立法权进行制度创新,促进二次创业.关于中国经济特区的未来走向,是<开放导报>长期关注、讨论的重要问题.本文是作者关于经济特区未来功能定位的主题发言,针对性强,颇具决策参考价值,反响很大,全国140多个网站刊载了他的观点.本刊特予以发表,意在继续深入讨论这个问题.     

The impact of agricultural technology adoption on income inequality in rural China: Evidence from southern Yunnan Province

This study analyzes the impact on income inequality of government efforts to increase agricultural incomes in rural China. It collects and analyzes survey data from 473 households in Yunnan, China in 2004. In particular, it investigates the effects of government efforts to promote improved upland rice technologies. Our analysis shows that farmers who adopted these technologies had incomes approximately 15% higher than non-adopters. Despite this relatively large increase, we estimate that the impact on income inequality was relatively slight. This is primarily due to the fact that lower-income farmers adopted the improved rice technology at rates that were roughly equivalent to those of higher-income farmers.     

Income inequality and access to housing: Evidence from China

Economic theory suggests that income inequality predicts housing price and housing affordability for low-income households. Employing Chinese urban household survey data, this paper examines empirically the relationship between income inequality and access to housing for urban low-income households. The empirical results demonstrate that higher income inequality within cities is significantly related to a higher housing cost burden, a smaller per capita living space, and lower housing quality for low-income households. Further studies demonstrate that the negative impacts of income inequality could be moderated by product differentiation in housing markets, as a higher degree of differentiation in the size of housing units corresponds to a smaller effect of income inequality on housing affordability.     

Tariffs,relative prices and wage inequality: Evidence from China

This paper, based on data from China after its membership into the World Trade Organization (WTO), shows the co-existence of a fluctuating skill premium and rises in wages for both skilled and unskilled labor. Our research provides one specific factor, the tariff reduction biased toward unskilled labor-intensive sectors, to explain and quantify the magnitudes of skill premium dynamics using the mandated-wage approach. The empirical evidence indicates that sector-biased tariff reductions have widened wage inequality in China through their effect on product prices. World price competition, on the other hand, has contributed to declining wage inequality via product prices, which is consistent with the endowment-based expectations of China's integration into the more skilled-labor abundant world.     

Intergenerational income persistence and transmission mechanism: Evidence from urban China

In this paper I investigate the intergenerational income association and its transmission channels amid China's economic transition period using urban data from the Chinese Household Income Projects in 1995 and 2002. The estimated intergenerational income elasticity is 0.43 and 0.51 for cohorts educated prior to and after the market reform respectively, and reaches 0.71 among households with above average income in the post-reform era. Besides the conventional channel of education, this paper estimates the contribution from social capital and ownership of work unit across cohorts and income groups. There is weak evidence that prior to market reform, ownership of work unit contributes most to the intergenerational income persistence for households with below average income, while social capital leads the three contributors in households with above average income. However, in the post-reform era, parents with below average income invest statistically significantly in children's education which contributes most to the intergenerational income persistence. The leading contributor in families with above average income shifts to social capital. Possible explanations for such a shift lie in the ability and incentive of parents from different income categories to invest in their children. The results are tested through a series of robustness checks, and provide empirical support for promoting policies on the equality of opportunity.     

电力消费和经济增长：来自中国的证据

对1971—2009年中国人均实际GDP和人均耗电量的Zivot-Andrews单位根检验表明,两序列都是带有结构突变的趋势平稳过程,所以,采用两种方法检验两者间的因果关系:基于VAR的Dolado-Lütkepo检验,和基于去势数据的Granger因果检验。两种检验都取得了从人均耗电量到人均实际GDP的单向因果关系的有力证据。这意味着电力供应对满足日益增长的用电量,从而维持中国经济增长是至关重要的。     

Trade openness and income inequality in China and the SAARC Region

The paper empirically examines the effects of trade liberalisation on income inequality in China and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation countries. Panel data analysis is conducted for the period of 1973 to 2012. The results show that liberal trade policies have increased income inequality in these countries. These results are robust to alternative liberalisation measures. The control variables used have differing effects on income distribution. Per capita income has an increasing effect on income inequality, while education, financial development, financial openness, democracy, and government size are shown to reduce income inequality. These outcomes can be expected to have important policy implications for the use of trade liberalisation in these countries.     

Inward and outward FDI and income inequality: evidence from Europe

This paper examines the effects of inward and outward FDI on income inequality in Europe using panel cointegration techniques and unbalanced panel regressions. Our main result is that both inward FDI and outward FDI have, on average, a negative long-run effect on income inequality. This result is robust to employing alternative estimation methods, controlling for potential outliers, using different measures of FDI and inequality, and changing the period and sample selection. Other findings are: (i) while the long-run effect of inward and outward FDI on income inequality is clearly negative, their short-run effect appears to be positive. (ii) Long-run causality runs in both directions, suggesting that an increase in inward and outward FDI reduces income inequality in the long run, and that, in turn, a reduction in inequality leads to an increase in inward and outward FDI. (iii) There are large cross-country differences in the long-run effects of inward and outward FDI on income inequality; for some countries the long-run effects on income inequality are positive.     

Economic structural changes and rural income: Evidence from Chinese provinces during the reform period

During the reform period, the Chinese rural economy has experienced deep structural changes: cropping adjustment, agro-forestry adjustment and agro-industrial adjustment. At the same time, rural per capita income rose sharply despite some fluctuations. Using a panel data of 29 provinces from 1982 to 2001, effects of these structural changes upon both income level and income instability are assessed. The empirical results show that crop adjustment and agro-industrial adjustment can increase rural income and reduce income instability, while agro-forestry adjustment reduces both income and its instability, as a risk-management strategy.     

Rural households' decisions towards income diversification: Evidence from a township in northern China

Economic reforms in rural China have brought opportunities to diversify both within-farm activities and off-farm activities. Participation in these activities plays an important role in increasing rural households' income. This paper analyzes the factors that drive rural households and individuals in their income-source diversification choices in a Northern China township. At the household level, we distinguish three types of diversification as opposed to grain production only: within-farm (non-grain production) activities, local off-farm activities, and migration. We find that land availability stimulates on-farm diversification. Local off-farm activities are mostly driven by households' asset positions and working resources, while migration decisions strongly depend on the household size and composition. At the individual level, we analyze the determinants of participation in three different types of jobs as compared to agricultural work: local off-farm employment, local self-employment and migration. We find a clear gender and age bias in access to off-farm activities that are mostly undertaken by male and by young people. The households' asset positions as well as village networks are found to strongly affect participation in off-farm activities.     

Crime and income inequality: An economic approach

Conclusion When a given pie is redivided in a less equalitarian manner, it is uncertain whether those already undertaking illegal activity will increase or decrease their activities, since the return to illegal activities is countered by the loss due to punishment (which is more painful to a criminal who failed) on one hand, and from the cost of the sacrifice of utility from legitimate activities on the other hand.If the absolute level of wealth remains constant but relative position declines, an incentive is generated to re-establish a person's standing by joining the crime industry. This is certainly the case at the margin for those close to the boundary of joining, i.e., those who are almost indifferent between joining or remaining within the legal framework.Assuming an individual is already participating in illegal activities, the effect of either an absolute or relative change in his level of wealth on his level of illegal activities is indeterminate. This applies both to the case where the total wealth of the society is fixed and the share of the pie going to the rich rises and the case where the total pie rose but the entire gain went only to the rich.In summary, it has been shown that an increase in wealth inequality has an indeterminate outcome both with respect to the decision of the poor on whether or not to enter the crime industry and with respect to the decision of those already participating in illegal pursuits to increase or decrease their level of activity. This conclusion is somewhat contrary to the general consensus of the literature, which appears to hold that increases in wealth inequality will tend to increase both the level of participation in the crime industry and the level of output within the industry.     

Basic education and income inequality in Brazil

This paper attempts to elucidate the long-term impact of basic education on income inequality in Brazil. It does so, first, by examining how investment in basic education affects incomes and, second, by assessing the extent to which government involvement in the financing of education services and the taxing of the returns of education investment contributes to the achievement of a more equitable distribution of income.On the basis of the empirical evidence available in Brazil, it is possible to suggest that: (i) education per se cannot significantly reduce inequality, (ii) government policies in terms of education subsidies and taxes on lifetime earnings do not show a clear redistribution pattern, and (iii) there exist effective policy tools in the area of employment, education wastage, cost recovery practices which could help bridge the gap between rates of return to education and reduce income inequality.     

Intergenerational transfer of human capital and its impact on income mobility: Evidence from China

This paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the impact of intergenerational transmission of human capital on the income mobility in China. We use a three-period overlapping-generations (OLG) model to show that the human capital transfer plays a remarkable role in determining the parent-to-offspring investment in human capital and the intergenerational elasticity of income. We then estimate a simultaneous equations model (SEM) using the 1989–2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data to verify our theoretical predictions. The results show that (i) human capital, measured by health and education, is directly transmitted from one generation to the next, reflecting the parent-induced inequality of development opportunities among offspring in China; (ii) the estimated intergenerational income elasticity increases from 0.429 to 0.481 when the direct transfer of human capital is accounted for, suggesting that omitting this mechanism would overestimate China's income mobility. Our findings provide policy implications on strengthening human capital investments among the disadvantaged groups, reinforcing reforms that promote equality of opportunity, and improving the efficiency of labor markets in China.     

环境污染治理与经济增长:模型与中国的经验研究

通过建立一个人力资本内生增长模型,将环境及环境污染治理引入内生增长框架下进行分析,其中重点探讨了在达到均衡增长路径过程中经济增长、环境污染与环境污染治理的关系,同时考察了维持可持续发展需要具备的条件。在此基础上,运用中国的数据对理论模型的一些结果进行了计量检验。结果表明,清洁要素以及技术的使用是可持续发展的关键,中国对环境污染一直以来缺乏足够的重视,目前仍然需要加大环境污染治理力度,提高环境污染治理的效率,地方政府的行为在其中会起到重要作用。     

Economic growth and income inequality in the Asia-Pacific region: A comparative study of China,Japan, South Korea,and the United States

This paper builds an inequality-growth-redistribution nexus, and applies the Engle–Granger two-step ECM approach to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between inequality and growth for four economies: China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Our estimation results support the S-shaped curve hypothesis relating GDP per capita to inequality with different starting points for the four economies. For the reverse relationship, we find a positive causal relationship for China, Japan, and the United States, indicating that increased income inequality spurred economic growth. In addition, we find mixed results on the effect of trade openness on inequality and growth. Trade openness reduced inequality in the United States and Japan, worsened it in China and had no significant effect in South Korea. In the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, exports provided an impetus to economic growth for Japan. As for redistribution, although fiscal redistributive measures reduced inequality in Japan, they played no major role in the other three countries. With regard to the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, all countries except for China show a negative effect of fiscal redistribution on GDP per capita.     

Perspectives on poverty and income inequality in Brazil

Exploratory analysis of the advance tabulations of the 1980 Brazilian demographic census suggests the proportion of the population in poverty fell during the decade 1970–1980. The degree of inequality of the distribution of the income of individuals apparently remained about the same from 1970 to 1980, after rising in the 1960s. This near-constancy of the overall inequality of income distribution resulted from two offsetting changes: a narrowing of the gap between rural and urban incomes, and greater inequality within the rural sector.     

从特区到试验区：中国特殊区域战略措施的演进与方向

经济特区与综合配套改革实验区都是中国特殊的区域战略措施,但它们是在不同的背景下设立的,不能混淆其区别。中国特殊区域战略措施可分为三个层次,即经济特区、全面性综合配套改革试验区与局部性综合配套改革试验区,三者在设立的初衷、区域与主体方面是不同的。随着改革与发展的推进,未来趋势必然是将重点放在体制机制的创新上,能否在体制机制方面明显创新,是新试验区成败的关键。