安徽省及合肥市“房地产泡沫”的实证研究

安徽省及合肥市房地产泡沫的评价指标,本文选用"房价收入比、房价与CPI的同步率、房价与租金的同步率、房屋销售额增长与社会商品零售总额增长的同步率、房地产投资强度、土地价格增长率"六项指标;安徽省及合肥市房地产泡沫的程度,本文在借鉴国内外学者研究成果基础上,用"边际收益法"进行测度。     

Farm earnings, educational attainment, and role of public policy: Some evidence from Mexico

Using real household survey data from Mexico, this study evaluates

• 1. 

  (a) the impact of schooling on farm earnings through the “direct” and “allocative” effects of human capital;

• 2. 

  (b) the household demand for children's schooling;

• 3. 

  (c) using macro-level data, the association between children's school-participation and some policy variables.

The overall rate of return to household heads' schooling is estimated at 25%, and for wives, 19%. The allocative effect of schooling of household heads dominates over the direct effect. Mother's schooling and farm size exercise significantly positive effects on household demand for schooling; while in the macro model, policy variables, government expenditure and pupil-teacher ratio appear strong determinants of children's attainment of primary schooling.     

Structural change in the economy and energy needs: A South African perspective∗

The paper reviews economic structural changes and the resultant effect on the demand for energy. Seen globally, structural change is determined primarily by:

• shifts In the sectoral contributions

• technological development

• increase in the urban population

• redistribution of income.

The South African situation is analysed with respect to the following factors:

• changes In sectoral energy use as a result of the development of the economy away from an agrarian economy towards a more industrialised economy

• urbanisation and the changing energy consumption patterns especially with regard to increased food and water, housing, domestic energy, transport and waste disposal needs

• redistribution of income and projected future demand for energy.

The importance of structural change in planning for future energy needs is emphasised.     

基于系统动力学的宏观调控政策对房地产价格影响研究

本文主要分析上海、重庆和武汉三个城市,将其商品住宅价格系统分人口、供应、需求、GDP和土地价格五个子系统,通过绘制存量流量图和因果回路图分析住宅系统与影响因素之间的关系,并通过调控税率、贷款利率及土地价格增长率等指标来进行单指标和多指标的政策性实验。结果表明:相同的调控政策应用于不同经济水平的城市效果不同;调整贷款利率对商品住宅价格影响较小,土地价格及税率对商品住宅价格影响更为显著。综合调控优于单一调控,政府部门可以同时进行综合调控稳定房价。     

Housing markets in China: an empirical evaluation of present-value model

Derived from the present-value model, our model implies that house price is a linear function of expected house rents and the expected rate of growth of house rents where expectations are formed adaptively. The model is used to explain the link between expected inflation and expected house rental growth rates. The estimated parameters of the housing markets in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen were compared.     

Determinants of Housing Prices and Bubble Detection: Evidence from Seven Advanced Economies

This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between residential property prices and the business cycle for seven advanced Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development economies over the period 2002–2015 using quarterly data. To this end, panel data and time series methodologies are adopted as a means of providing a contextual framework on the extant relationship. The panel methodological framework explores the interaction between economic fundamentals and financial variables while the use of time series methodologies developed by Phillips et al. (2011 and 2015) provide novel evidence on the detection of property price bubbles that have been manifested in each individual country of the sample. In particular, the short-run dynamic panel framework provides a robust exploratory platform thus, shedding light on the determinants of property prices (i.e. real gross domestic product, bank credit growth, long-term bond yields and real effective exchange rate) whilst the bubble detection methodologies provide evidence of the impact of credit-driven economies on the propagation of housing booms which can serve as warning signals of the potential formation of housing bubbles.     

RATES OF RETURN TO EDUCATION IN BOTSWANA: RESULTS FROM THE 2002/2003 HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND EXPENDITURE SURVEY DATA SET

Using the most recent Household Income and Expenditure Survey data (2002/2003), this paper presents current rates of return to education for Botswana. The results show that the rates of return have in general declined by one percentage point on average between the periods as shown in Table 2 . If we, however, look at the averages for the different school cycles, the fall in the average rates is quite significant at about six percentage points between the periods. The biggest fall is for secondary education, especially upper secondary education, which fell by 28 percentage points between the periods. The rates of return to tertiary education, however, rose by more than 50 percentage points. Ignoring upper secondary, the pattern of rates of return has remained similar to the results of the study based on the 1993/1994 data. Rates are higher for tertiary education and lower for secondary than for primary education. This results are still consistent with rates of return generally rising with level of education. At policy level, the results continue to support sharing of costs between Government and beneficiaries or their parents especially at tertiary education level. Second, the results indicate the need for the country to continue to vigorously pursue job creation and reorient the education system from emphasis on white collar jobs.

Table 2. Mincerian earnings function: overall Ψ
Dependent variable (ln monthly earnings)

Real estate prices in Beijing, 1644 to 1840

This paper provides the first estimates of housing price movements for Beijing in late pre-modern China. We hand-collect from archival sources transaction prices and other house attribute information from the 498 surviving house sale contracts for Beijing during the first two centuries of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1840), a long period without major wars, political turmoil, or significant institutional change in the Chinese capital. We use hedonic methods to construct a real estate price index for Beijing for the period. The regression analysis explains a major proportion of the variance of housing prices. We find that house prices grew steadily for the first half-century of the Qing Dynasty and declined afterwards in both nominal and real terms through the late eighteenth century. Nominal prices grew starting in the late eighteenth century and declined from the early nineteenth century through 1840. But these price changes occurred with contemporaneous price changes in basic measures of the cost of living: there was little change in real terms to the end of our period.     

北京的住房政策变迁及经验教训

30年来,北京的住房配置由实物分配一统天下转变为以市场交易为主的普通商品房、限价商品房、经济适用房、廉租房并存的商品房和保障性住房并存的格局。文章认为,市场化是房地产业发展繁荣的根本原因,稳定房地产市场的发展依然是解决住房问题的根本出路。然而,住房问题的解决不能纯粹依赖市场,中低收入人群的住房要靠保障性住房来解决,因此,保障性住房政策需要完善。     

房价压力会刺激文化消费吗?

文章应用CFPS2010、2012、2014年的调查数据,以房价收入比指数作为"房价压力"的代理变量,探讨了房价压力对文化消费的影响机制。在我国房价收入比畸高的社会环境下,消费者同时受到"释放压力型"消费需求的驱使和可支配收入减少的预算约束,为了缓解生活压力,获得心理慰藉,增加了对相对廉价且非必需的文化消费品的需求,即口红效应成为房价压力影响文化消费的传导机制。研究发现：控制户主受教育水平、家庭其他生活压力、地区经济发展水平和文化消费氛围等因素,在城镇中仅拥有一套及以下住房资产的家庭中,高"房价压力"显著提升了居民文化消费需求。在影响机制研究中,首先,通过验证房价压力对总消费的抑制作用剥离了财富效应的影响,其次,通过验证房价压力对大额消费品和小额消费品影响的异质性,证实了房价压力对文化消费影响口红效应的存在性。进一步将研究样本按照消费文化类型、收入阶层和受教育阶层分组后发现：开放的消费文化下高"房价压力"对居民文化消费的促进作用更强,中等收入阶层在高"房价压力"下进行"释放压力型"文化消费的需求最强烈。高学历层次居民在面对"房价压力"时更倾向选择文化消费作为释放压力的渠道。     

A proposed national development plan for Lebowa,University of Pretoria, 1983

This review comments on three aspects of the report:

• the technical aspects of presentation, style and general appearance

• the document as a source of data and reference

• the planning aspects of the document.

In addition, some information on the contents is supplied as so few copies of the report are available for general use.     

North versus South: The Impact of Social Norms in the Market Pricing of Private Property Rights in Vietnam

Despite a centralized political system, country-wide legal reforms, and similar high housing demand pressures, property rights have evolved differently in Vietnam’s two leading cities, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), during the transition period. Using ethnographic fieldwork and a hedonic price model, the study shows that the two land and housing markets price tenure ambiguity differently. The different price structures indicate the importance of norms, as socially constructed by local political interests and culture, in the efficacy of land title regularization programs.     

乌鲁木齐市“房价”与“地价”关系研究

在综合分析国内外相关学者对房价及地价关系分析的基础上,运用乌鲁木齐市2003年—2010年房价及地价的季度数据,在借助相关性分析模型、格兰杰因果关系检验模型、方差分析模型及非线性回归分析等统计分析模型对房价及地价的因果关系、相互影响的显著性水平以及影响程度进行深入分析。研究结果表明:乌鲁木齐市地价变化是影响房价变化的重要原因,对房价的影响具有较高的显著性,影响程度较大。     

粮价、盐价与房价调控的比较

粮价、房价以及前段时间发生的"盐慌"问题是最近人们关注的焦点话题,本文在分析一般商品价格调控原理基础上,通过比较粮价、盐价与房价的调控,提出房价调控的政策建议:增加住房供给,尤其是增加中小户型住房的供给;限制投资性住房需求和投机性住房需求;完善住房保障制度。     

Sowing the seeds for the subprime crisis: does global liquidity matter for housing and other asset prices?

We assess the relationship between global liquidity and two important classes of asset prices on a global scale. For this purpose, we estimate a variety of VAR models for the global economy using aggregated data which represent the major OECD countries. According to the impulse responses obtained a positive shock to global liquidity raises the global house price index and later on via commodity prices also the global GDP deflator to the same extent. Hence, we conclude that there are subsequent spill-over effects from house prices to the overall price level. However, we are not able to find any empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis that stock prices significantly react to changes in global liquidity.

Conference on regional economic development,Pretoria, 30 January 1986

The conference was held to review and discuss the completed research that is part of the Regional Economic Development Programme. This programme stems from the regional economic development that was initiated by the Good Hope Conference in 1982.

The programme is under the auspices of the HSRC and the Central Economic Advisory Bureau. The research was mainly done by outside researchers, most of whom attended this conference.

Because of the extent of the research, it was discussed under three themes:

• Income distribution and employment

• Infrastructure and growth

• Demography, manpower and migration

     

房贷风险评估及银行的应对策略

房地产是当今中国经济的支柱产业,而房地产发展的资金绝大部分由银行贷款获得,因此房价的变动会使银行的贷款业务面临风险。本文首先分析了现阶段房贷与房价之间的关系,接着讨论了人口因素对房价的影响,分析了房价的走势;最后计算了在不同的贷款方式下,商业银行应对房价下调时的贷款风险临界值,给出了商业银行防范房价变动的应对策略。     

我国住房价格与租金背离的行为解释

马克思的地租理论及迪帕斯奎尔-惠顿模型(D-W模型),均认为房价与租金成正比关系。然而我国现实数据显示:房价与租金受各种因素的干扰而呈现出非正比的背离关系。房价与租金背离的缘由是土地制度导致市场供给短缺,体制转轨使得住房需求激增、居住文化加剧供需矛盾。而粮食安全问题、小产权房现象、宏观调控政策则强化了房价与租金的背离关系。为此,应继续大力发展开发业务,满足日益增长的购房需求,同时加强对租赁市场的培育。     

Volatility Relationship between Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

This paper utilizes calculated historical volatility and GARCH models to compare the historical price volatility behavior of crude oil, motor gasoline and heating oil in U.S. markets since 1990. We incorporate a shift variable in the GARCH/TARCH models to capture the response of price volatility to a change in OPEC’s pricing behavior. This study has three major conclusions. First, there was an increase in volatility as a result of a structural shift to higher crude oil prices after April 1999. Second, volatility shocks from current news are not important since GARCH effects dominate ARCH effects in the variance equation. Third, persistence of volatility in all commodity markets is quite transitory, with half-lives normally being a few weeks.

北京市保障性住房运行机制优化--基于房地产市场现状分析的视角

文章以北京市为例,从分析其房地产市场现状入手,探讨保障性住房理想的运行机制。分析发现,北京市房价泡沫化严重。文章还从房价走势机理分析了保障性住房对房价调控的意义。认为,现阶段房价调控最佳手段是规划建设大量保障性住房。北京市保障性住房运行机制有待进一步优化,包括北京市保障性住房宜以廉租房、公共租赁房等租赁型为主。在房源调控方面,既要根据市场需求,又要保持政策的独立性;在融资模式上宜加大土地出让金出资比例;加强保障性住房租购家庭的动态监测与管理,严禁转租转售;加强保障性住房规划的统筹性,建立长效机制以及完善保障性住房基础设施和公共服务设施等。