城里小伙儿遇到农村姑娘:婴儿户口、户籍改革与跨户籍通婚

利用公安部1998年发布的<关于解决当前户口管理工作中几个突出问题的意见>关于子女落户规则的政策变动,我们估计了户籍制度对于城乡婚姻模式和妇女流动的影响.利用2005年全国普查数据发现,取消落户随母的限制显著增加了城乡通婚比例,这种显著的增加主要来自于城镇男性和农村女性之间的通婚,而非城镇女性和农村男性之间的通婚.利用倍差分的策略,我们估计得到户籍改革使得一个城市男性娶农村女性的概率增加了5%左右.户籍改革之后,农村女性因为婚嫁原因迁往城市的概率显著增加.     

Sectoral shifts and rates of profit

Summary In this paper the role of the capital market is analysed onthe base of a dynamic two-sector model of a closed economy. The way in which the allocation of investment is related to sectoral differences in the rate of profit and to diverging sectoral capital needs as well, turns out to be of great importance for the whole economy. Conclusions are drawn with regard to the long-run equality of profits after an initial disturbance. The role of the capital market is analysed too in connection with the functioning of sectoral labour markets. As far as unemployment and differing sectoral unemployment rates are concerned, the importance of the labour markets is obviously overwhelming. On that base it is possible to make some remarks on macroeconomic and sectoral investment policies with regard to employment.     

Sectoral transformation and labour-market flows

This paper examines the pattern of sectoral transformation thathas occurred in the United Kingdom in the post-war period anddocuments the flows of workers that have occurred between industrialand services sectors and the non-employment that has resulted.It then examines what consequences sectoral transformation hashad for wages and unemployment, both at the aggregate and theindividual level. It concludes by examining the policy implicationsof its findings.     

Fiscal Shocks and The Sectoral Composition of Output

We study the impact of shocks to different types of government spending on the sectoral composition of output for a panel of EMU member countries. We find that fiscal shocks lead to an increase in the relative size of the nontraded sector, with the impact varying across the different spending categories. There is typically no significant impact on the level of production in the tradables sector but the level of imports increases and the level of exports declines in most cases. Overall, the results show that fiscal shocks matter not only for aggregate variables but also for the sectoral composition of output. The sectoral output results are consistent with previous work concerning the impact of fiscal shocks on the real exchange rate and the relative price of nontradables.     

Sectoral border effects and the geographic concentration of production

The object of this paper is to study the relationship between the border effect and the geographic concentration of production. We explain this relationship through the home market effect and test the robustness of this explanation by using an analysis that considers the European single market. A sectoral gravity equation is estimated with different econometric estimators; in particular, we discuss a recently suggested estimator for log-linear CES models. Overall, our findings suggest a steady relationship between the border effect and the concentration of production. Furthermore, the analysis of concentration through a synthetic index provides us with valuable insights into the structure of the European industry.     

Sectoral labor employment in a Caribbean economy: The case of Barbados

This study examines the demand for labor in five major sectors of the Caribbean economy of Barbados. While the demand for labor function in the nontradable sectors appears well-defined in terms of real wages and real aggregate output, the inclusion of a variable to capture the effects of capital-deepening appears important to the specification of labor demand in the tradable sectors—agriculture and manufacturing. Low estimates of real wage elasticities and real output elasticities in the vicinity of unity suggest that employers in the major sectors are more likely to alter their demand for labor based on expectations of the economy’s performance than in response to labor cost factors denominated in producer prices.     

Hukou and Graduates’ Job Search in China*

This paper presents evidence that graduates from rural areas, classified as non‐urban Hukou, choose to invest in higher levels of job‐search effort (as measured by number of different search methods used and the number of employers contacted) and also set a lower reservation wage, reflected in acceptance of a lower starting salary, than do comparable graduates of urban Hukou, in China. The former also appear to have higher probabilities of being employed, in terms of both their higher probabilities of receiving offers and, more importantly, their higher probabilities of acceptance. The evidence thus suggests that graduates with non‐urban Hukou face more intense pressure to gain employment in the period leading up to graduation, than do their urban counterparts. More generally, the evidence suggests that effort invested in job search is rewarded in the graduate labor market in China.     

Sectoral Productivity Growth and R&D Spillovers in the Netherlands

This paper assesses empirically whether R&D spillovers are important and whether they originate from domestic or foreign activities. Data for eleven sectors are used to explain the impact on total factor productivity of R&D by the sector itself, by other Dutch sectors and by foreign sectors. We find that both domestic and foreign R&D are significant for the Dutch economy. The elasticity of total factor productivity with respect to R&D is approximately 37% for R&D by a sector, 15% for R&D by other Dutch sectors and 3% for R&D by foreign sectors. Our findings suggest moreover that more R&D speeds up the adoption of foreign technologies. Thus, even for a small open economy as the Netherlands, promoting investment in R&D is appropriate as it both stimulates adoption and generates spillovers.     

Business Cycles and FDI: Evidence from German Sectoral Data

Globalization has affected business cycle developments in OECD countries and has increased activities of firms across national borders. This paper analyzes whether these two developments are linked. We use a new firm-level data set on the foreign activities of German firms to test whether foreign activities are affected by business cycle developments. We aggregate the data by the sector of the reporting firm, the sector of the foreign affiliate, and the host country. Data are annual and cover the period 1989–2002. We find that German outward FDI increases in response to positive cyclical developments abroad and in response to a real depreciation of the domestic currency. JEL no. E3, F23     

Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Malaysia

The present paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy shocks on aggregate and eight sectoral outputs for Malaysia using vector autoregressive models. In line with many existing studies on Malaysia, the results are supportive of the real effects of monetary policy shocks. More importantly, we find evidence suggesting sector-specific responses to innovations in monetary policy. In response to positive interest rate shocks, we note that the manufacturing, construction, finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors seem to decline more than aggregate production. By contrast, we observe the relative insensitivities of agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water to interest rate changes. The results, therefore, seem to confirm potential disparities in the effect of monetary policy on real sectoral activities.     

Market Power,Productivity and Sectoral Labour Shares in Europe

Open Economies Review - The stability of the labour share of income is a fundamental feature of many macroeconomic models. Empirically however, the labour share varies considerably across countries...     

中国农村劳动力迁移过程中的部门选择与性别差异

基于最近针对农村迁移劳动力的抽样调查数据,本文应用Multinomial Logit模型对中国农村迁移劳动力就业过程中的部门选择行为展开经验分析,并且在此基础之上对农村迁移劳动力部门选择过程中的性别差异进行分解,以研究农村迁移劳动力就业部门之间的性别歧视。主要研究结论为:工作搜寻渠道和个人人力资本状况(特别是教育水平)对农村迁移劳动力的部门选择存在显著的影响;而家庭和迁出地等特征变量对其部门选择的影响较小;同时,虽然农村迁移劳动力在部门选择过程中存在显著的性别差异,但是其性别差异主要来自于个体特征变量之间的差异,纯粹性别歧视并不显著。本文的研究结论有助于加深对中国经济转型过程中农村劳动力迁移微观行为机制的理解,同时认为加强农村迁移劳动力的人力资本投资与建立和完善现代化的劳动力市场中介组织是推动中国二元经济快速转型、和谐发展的关键所在。     

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of International Trade: A Vector Error-Correction Study

This study examines various claims that in the U.S., international trade has contributed to a loss of manufacturing base, an increased gap between unskilled and skilled wages, lower employment, and a loss of productivity. Cointegration tests indicate that in the long run and at the macro level, the ratio of trade to output and FDI to output are correlated with the manufacturing share of output, the ratio of unskilled to skilled wages, labor productivity, and the employment rate. However, Granger causality tests reveal that, with one exception, causation does not run from trade to the domestic variables, the only exception being that FDI Granger causes productivity. When the focus is shifted to the manufacturing sector, the results support the proposition that openness to trade has had adverse effects on this sector.A slightly different version of this paper was presented at the Fifty-sixth International Atlantic Economic Conference, October 16–19, 2003 in Quebec City, Canada. The research reported in this paper is partially funded by a grant from the Institute for Global Economic Affairs at Marquette University.     

The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greece

This paper estimates the magnitude of the Balassa-Samuelson effect for Greece. We calculate the effect directly, using sectoral national accounts data, which permits estimation of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the tradeables and nontradeables sectors. Our results suggest that it is difficult to produce one estimate of the BS effect. Any particular estimate is contingent on the definition of the tradeables sector and the assumptions made about labour shares. Moreover, there is also evidence that the effect has been declining through time as Greek standards of living have caught up on those in the rest of the world and as the non-tradeables sector within Greece catches up with the tradeables.

Sectoral Wage Rigidities and Labour and Product Market Institutions in the Euro Area

We estimate wage Phillips curve relationships between sectoral wage growth, unemployment and productivity in a country-industry panel of euro area countries. We find that institutional rigidities – such as labour and product market institutions and regulations – limit the adjustment of euro area wages to unemployment, in both upturns and downturns, particularly in manufacturing and, to a lesser extent, in the construction and service sectors. In addition, there are further limitations in the response of wages to changes in unemployment during economic downturns which suggests that euro area wages are also characterised by significant downward wage rigidities, especially in the manufacturing sector. These results are robust to specifications that account for factors that may affect structural unemployment (such as duration-dependent unemployment effects), as well as changes in the skill composition of employment that may affect the evolution of aggregate wages. The results also hold for panels including or excluding the public sector (where wages may be determined differently to the private sector also due to the effects of fiscal consolidation on public sector wages during the crisis). From a policy perspective, reforms in product and labour markets which reduce wage rigidities can facilitate employment growth and enhance the rebalancing process in the euro area.     

Economic and Geographical Distance: Explaining Mercosur Sectoral Exports to the EU

The objective of this paper is to apply a modified gravity model to annual exports disaggregated by sector, from MERCOSUR + Chile to the 15 current members of the EU. In doing so, we aimed to classify sectors according to their sensitivity to geographical and economic distance and to identify which commodities enjoy export strength even without further progress in trade liberalisation with the EU. In the estimation we made use of two additional explanatory variables which are found to be relevant when explaining trade, namely, infrastructure and exchange rates. An exchange rate index is built that takes into account protection. Our results support the view that different sectors have a different sensitivity to distance and highlight the importance of using disaggregated data when analysing international trade flows.     

Sectoral and aggregate estimates of the cyclical behavior of markups: Evidence from Germany

Sectoral and Aggregate Estimates of the Cyclical Behavior of Mark-ups: Evidence from Germany. — The paper presents evidence of the cyclical behavior of the price to marginal cost ratio for Germany. Average markups are estimated both for two-digit manufacturing industries and for the aggregate economy, the results being quite similar once the difference between gross output and and value-added markups is accounted for. Over the business cycle, markups appear to be countercyclical for most parameter constellations. This is interpreted as empirical support for business cycle theories that rely on aggregate demand shocks to affect markups inversely, thus producing procyclical real wages and productivity without having to assume technology shocks.     

Sectoral effects of reductions in NATO military expenditures in the major industrialized and developing countries

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the sectoral effects of (1) a 25 percent unilateral reduction of military expenditures in the individual NATO countries and (2) a 25 percent multilateral reduction of military expenditures in all of the NATO countries combined. Our principal findings suggest that the overall effects of the unilateral and multilateral reductions are not substantial and that the results of the two reductions are qualitatively similar. The sectoral results, which are also broadly similar in the two experiments, suggest that sectors such as basic metals and metal products, durable goods, and community, social, and personal services might be in need of transitional adjustment assistance for displaced workers in the event that the reductions in military expenditures would in fact be carried out.     

Fallacies in the interpretation of a european monetary aggregate

Conclusions This paper leads to the following two conclusions regarding the role of a European monetary aggregate in stages two and three of the process towards EMU. First, the relatively high stability of the demand for a European monetary aggregate is no indication for a high degree of currency substitution. Calls for a more symmetric monetary coordination scheme during stage two therefore cannot be based on this argument. Second, present estimates of European money demand functions give an overly optimistic idea of money demand stability after EMU.