Social learning in a changing world

Summary. In the social learning model of Banerjee [1] and Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch [2] individuals take actions sequentially after observing the history of actions taken by the predecessors and an informative private signal. If the state of the world is changing stochastically over time during the learning process, only temporary informational cascades – situations where socially valuable information is wasted – can arise. Furthermore, no cascade ever arises when the environment changes in a sufficiently unpredictable way. Received: December 5, 1996; revised version: February 11, 1997     

Government industrial policy for a healthy world economy

The Japanese concept of “industrial policy” is the subject of this presentation. The central role of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in the formulation of industrial policy for Japan over the past 35 years is reviewed. Several strategic phases are identified: 1945–1952, reconstruction of the economy; 1952–1960, comparative advantage strategy in capital-intensive industries; 1960–1973, transition to an open economy; 1973 to present, positive support policy for promising industries, e.g., subsidies for high-tech sectors and adjustive policy for declining industries (e.g., disposing of excess capacity in the textile sector). The advantages of National industrial policies for the world economy are indicated.     

The prospects for a hydrogen economy (1): hydrogen futures

Common to all discussions and projections of ‘a hydrogen economy’ is the widespread use of hydrogen as an energy carrier. Such use requires the development and application of a range of different technologies, some similar to and some quite different from those in common use in current energy systems. This paper starts by briefly introducing and describing the physical characteristics, economics and functionality of these technologies, before discussing some of the hydrogen futures that have been proposed, and the great improvements to the technologies which will be required before they become competitive with alternative means of delivering the same energy service. Technology cost estimates are then used to explore through the use of formal modelling techniques some of the futures scenarios.     

The changing nature of the OECD shadow economy

Traditionally, the presence of the shadow economy (SE) has been associated, mainly and positively, with taxation. Recently, some authors have suggested that the SE may be also linked to the institutional setting (efficiency of the bureaucracy, regulations, corruption, etc.) so that just two stable equilibria are possible. In the “good” one, there is a small hidden sector, large fiscal revenues and honest/appreciated institutions. The other, “bad”, equilibrium is the opposite. Unlike the traditional approach, therefore, the recent literature argues that the tax burden and SE can be negatively correlated. Examining the links between these variables in relatively uncorrupt systems, this paper reconciles the two views. Theoretically, it claims that many different good equilibria can emerge whereby SE and its determinants are linked in complex and different ways. For instance, taxation and SE can go hand-in-hand, even taking into account the institutional framework. Empirical evidence for OECD countries supports both the model and the changing nature of the SE.     

The changing world of ancillary benefits

Amid salary and health care benefit cuts, ancillary benefits such as dental, life insurance, long-term disability and vision coverage can communicate employers' concern for their employees as well as serve as recruitment and retention tools. These benefits can be funded by the employer, the employee or both.     

The value of (bounded) memory in a changing world

This paper explores the value of memory in decision making in dynamic environments. We examine the decision problem faced by an agent with bounded memory who receives a sequence of signals from a partially observable Markov decision process. We characterize environments in which the optimal memory consists of only two states. In addition, we show that the marginal value of additional memory states need not be positive and may even be negative in the absence of free disposal.     

Decreasing marginal impatience in a two-country world economy

By using a two-country model with endogenous time preference, this paper examines the dynamic implication of decreasing marginal impatience (DMI). To ensure stability, we assume that one country has DMI whereas the other has increasing marginal impatience (IMI). The resultant equilibrium dynamics differ from what can be inferred from the analysis of the standard IMI model (e.g., Devereux and Shi in J Int Econ 30:1–25, 1991). An increase in fiscal spending, in either country with DMI or IMI, has always contrasting long-run effects on domestic and foreign consumption and hence on domestic and foreign welfare; and the same policy definitely raises the interest rate in the long run.     

Capital income taxation in a growing world economy

This paper deals with dynamic adjustment in large economies to changes in the rate of capital income taxation or in the rate of investment tax credit in one country. The framework applied in the paper is a continuous-time, overlapping generations model with two countries. It features population growth and debt non-neutrality. We address impact and steady state effects of capital income tax and investment subsidy changes in the home country on consumption per capita, the capital intensity, and the per capita net foreign asset position in both countries. We also briefly consider individual welfare consequences of these policies.     

The cost of natural capital consumption: Accounting for a sustainable world economy

The System for integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) has been criticized in this journal for ignoring the benefits of ecosystem services for human well-being. This paper argues that extended national accounts should not attempt measuring economic welfare. Rather, they could and should assess the environmental sustainability of economic activity as the cost of natural capital consumption. The global application of SEEA concepts and methods demonstrates the feasibility of international green accounting. For the world economy, sustainability costs run to about 3 trillion US$ or 6% of world GDP. Large variations at national and regional levels suggest that conventional economic indicators may significantly overstate economic progress in some parts of the world. Data gaps and lack of data comparability affect these first estimates. National and international statistical services should be more aggressive in greening the national accounts. More prudent and more sustainable economic policies might be the result.     

Terrorism and the world economy

It has been argued that terrorism should not have a large effect on economic activity, because terrorist attacks destroy only a small fraction of the stock of capital of a country (see, e.g., Becker, G., Murphy, K., 2001. Prosperity will rise out of the ashes. Wall Street Journal October 29, 2001). In contrast, empirical estimates of the consequences of terrorism typically suggest large effects on economic outcomes (see, e.g., Abadie, A., Gardeazabal, J., 2003. The economic cost of conflict: A case study of the Basque country. American Economic Review 93, 113-132). The main theme of this article is that mobility of productive capital in an open economy may account for much of the difference between the direct and the equilibrium impact of terrorism. We use a simple economic model to show that terrorism may have a large impact on the allocation of productive capital across countries, even if it represents a small fraction of the overall economic risk. The model emphasizes that, in addition to increasing uncertainty, terrorism reduces the expected return to investment. As a result, changes in the intensity of terrorism may cause large movements of capital across countries if the world economy is sufficiently open, so international investors are able to diversify other types of country risks. Using a unique data set on terrorism and other country risks, we find that, in accordance with the predictions of the model, higher levels of terrorist risks are associated with lower levels of net foreign direct investment positions, even after controlling for other types of country risks. On average, a standard deviation increase in the terrorist risk is associated with a fall in the net foreign direct investment position of about 5% of GDP. The magnitude of the estimated effect is large, which suggests that the “open-economy channel” impact of terrorism may be substantial.     

世界经济一体化的特点

随着世界市场的扩大以及国际分工的深入,世界经济呈现出高度的一体化趋势.本文将从知识经济,区域经济一体化和跨国公司等几个方面来分析世界经济一体化的特点.     

The UK economy in the late 1980s: trends and prospects

The British economy in the 1980s has been characterized by structural changes which, in their scale and rapidity, are in many ways unprecedented. Moreover further change is in store, since the impending decline of North Sea oil output will have significant effects on Britian's external position, and possibly on public finance. This paper (a) reviews past and prospective structural changes, partiularly in terms of their effects on the balance of payments, (b) outlines and critically discusses the government's view of the situation and its development, (c) discusses some likely adjustment problems over the medium term, and (d) considers the options and constraints for policy in the late 1980s and early 1990s.     

The role of China in the world economy: evidence from a global VAR model

Since the 1980s, China has experienced very high economic growth, and its share in global trade has increased rapidly. Currently, however, the Chinese economy is rebalancing, and its growth is slowing. This paper investigates the spillover effects on other countries of a negative demand shock and negative stock price shock in the Chinese economy. We apply a global vector autoregressive model, which enables us to model international linkages between countries. Our results show that a one per cent negative China GDP shock reduces global growth by 0.22% in the short run. We find that GDP shock affects emerging economies more strongly than advanced economies. We also show that a stock price shock affects only emerging economies and does not affect advanced economies.     

Monetary policy of a small open economy in the world production chain

In the world production chain there is a small economy that outsources production to its upstream, sells intermediate goods to its downstream and consumes imported final goods. It is shown that in responding to shocks from demand for intermediate goods, from the wage rate in the upstream and from the currency exchange rate between the upstream and downstream countries, the monetary policy of the small country is insignificant in the sense that any attempt of changing its monetary stance to raise national welfare will be offset by the movements of exchange rates.     

Pastoral economics within the framework of a social economy

Eucken, in his paradigm of a functionally competitive social market economy, established the basis for a free market economy which institutionalizes concerns for economic and social justice. The Bishops’ Pastoral (and also the Lay Letter) on the U.S. economy approach the concept of a social and just economy from a Christian moral tradition. A community of interests between these two approaches, as well as Donaldson’s synthesis of Nozick’s and Rawl’s theories of justice, causes a moral-economic dialogue and cross fertilization to emerge. The Bishops postulate that the evolution of a just and fair market economy, as the guarantor of freedom, human dignity, and justice, cannot be left to chance but needs to be consciously guided. Therefore, they emphasize the integration of economic theories and policies with notions of “fairness” and “justice,” advocating a holistic approach in viewing the economic system as an organic whole. This paper shows that the broad economic guidelines, which Bishops suggest, fall within the framework of a functional market economy, i.e., a social market economy. It does not deal with the religious and biblical arguments of the Pastoral Letter.