Renegotiation-Proof Climate Agreements with Full Participation: Conditions for Pareto-Efficiency

Recent contributions show that climate agreements with broad participation can be implemented as weakly renegotiation-proof equilibria in simple models of greenhouse gas abatement where each country has a binary choice between cooperating (i.e., abate emissions) or defecting (no abatement). Here we show that this result carries over to a model where countries have a continuum of emission choices. Indeed, a Pareto-efficient climate agreement can always be implemented as a weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium, for a sufficiently high discount factor. This means that one need not trade-off a “narrow but deep” treaty with a “broad but shallow” treaty.     

A K% MONEY GROWTH LEADERSHIP RULE IN AN INTERNATIONAL MONETARY POLICY GAME

This paper examines a version of the Friedman k% money growth rule in an open economy monetary policy game. Using the two-country model proposed by Canzoneri and Henderson (1991), we show that, in response to asymmetric aggregate demand shocks, the Pareto-efficient outcome can be achieved by a policy that we call a k% money growth leadership rule. Following that rule, one country, the leader, sets her money supply growth rate, and the follower sets her money supply growth rate so as to keep the sum of nominal money supply growth at k%. We show that this policy yields the same outcome as does cooperative equilibrium. We also show that alternative policy rules, such as keeping exchange-rate adjusted money supply growth at k%, or forming a currency union, will not lead to the Pareto-efficient outcome in response to these demand shocks. ( JEL E5, F3)     

A note on bargaining over a finite number of feasible agreements

Summary In this note we show that theuniqueness of the subgame perfect equilibrium of Rubinstein's (1982) bargaining theory does not hold if the number of feasible agreements isfinite. It will be shown thatany Pareto-efficient agreement (belonging to thefinite set of feasible agreements) can be supported as a subgame perfect equilibrium of the Rubinstein alternating-offers bargaining game, provided the length of a single bargaining period is sufficiently small.     

DEVELOPING COUNTRY BORROWING FROM A MONOPOLISTIC LENDER: STRATEGIC INTERACTIONS AND ENDOGENOUS LEADERSHIP*

We develop a two‐period model with endogenous investment and credit flows. Credit is subject to quantitative restrictions. With an exogenous restriction, we analyse the welfare effects of a temporary consumption tax. We then consider three scenarios under which a monopoly lender optimally decides the level of credit and a borrower country chooses a consumption tax: one in which the two parties act simultaneously and two scenarios where one of them is a Stackleberg leader. The equilibrium under the leadership of the borrower country is Pareto superior to the simultaneous move equilibrium but may or may not be to that under the leadership of the lender. If the sequence of moves is itself chosen strategically, leadership by the borrower emerges as the unique equilibrium.     

Small Countries and Preferential Trade Agreements: How Severe is the Innocent Bystander Problem?

In this paper the welfare implications of preferential trade agreements (PTA) are examined from the perspective of small countries in the context of a multi-country general equilibrium model. We calibrate our model to represent one relatively small country and two symmetric big countries. We consider two cases. In one case, the small country is an 'innocent bystander', that is, it is left out of a PTA between the two large countries. In the second case, the small country signs a PTA with one of the large countries. We simulate the model and calculate consumption allocations, prices, trade volume, and tariffs in these two cases considering three different equilibria: free trade (FT), free trade association (FTA) and customs union (CU). We find that free trade is the best outcome for the small country. If the large country PTA takes the form of a CU then the cost of being an 'innocent bystander' is very large. If it is an FTA then the cost of being an 'innocent bystander' is relatively modest. In fact, the small country prefers to be an 'innocent bystander' to being a member of an FTA with one of the large countries.     

Sovereign Risk, FDI Spillovers, and Growth

This paper studies the effect of sovereign risk on capital flows from rich to poor nations in the context of a two-country model, where Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) creates positive externalities in domestic production. We show that if externalities are large, a developing country never expropriates foreign assets, and behaves as under perfect enforcement of foreigners' property rights, jumping to the steady state in one period. If externalities are absent, a developing country always expropriates foreign assets and, then, there are no capital flows in equilibrium, as occurs in autarky. If externalities are of a medium size, our model can account for scarce capital flows from rich to poor nations, as well as other key features of the data, such as rising-over-time patterns of foreign capital and FDI in developing countries. In addition, the model offers an economic rationale for the FDI restrictions observed across nations.     

Dynamic Contractual Enforcement: A Model of Strikes

This paper provides a theory of strikes as part of a constrained efficient enforcement mechanism for an implicit contractual agreement. A firm possessing contemporaneously private information about demand engages in an enduring relationship with its workforce. If the information becomes perfectly observable subsequently, then, modulo discounting, the first-best is implementable, but strikes are always off the equilibrium path. If the observations of the workforce are imperfect strikes occur in equilibrium. The dynamic contracting problem is modeled as a repeated game with imperfect monitoring. The equilibrium exhibits production inefficiency and incomplete insurance to mitigate the inefficiencies caused by strikes.     

Incomplete Markets, Transitory Shocks, and Welfare

Although equilibrium allocations in models with incomplete markets are generally not Pareto-efficient, it is often argued that quantitative welfare losses from missing assets are small when time horizons are long and shocks are transitory. In this paper we use a computational analysis to show that even in the simplest infinite horizon model without aggregate uncertainty welfare losses can be substantial. Furthermore we show that in this model welfare losses from incomplete markets do not necessarily disappear when one considers calibrations of the model in which agents become very patient. We argue that when the economic model is calibrated to higher frequency data, the period persistence of negative income shocks must increase as well. In this case the welfare loss of incomplete markets remains constant even as agents' rate of time preference tends to one. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D52, D58, D60.     

Financial Mechanism and Enforceability of International Environmental Agreements

We examine how international coordination among countries generates a trend towards establishing an international institution for the provision of global public goods. In the present model, the forces creating international agreement are a politician??s motive for re-election and a financial mechanism for compliance. If a politician expects another politician in a neighboring country to signal his good performance to his citizen by participating in the agreement, and is aware that his ex post deviation will be deterred by the financial mechanism, he too decides to participate in the agreement, which then corrects externality problems.     

Climate Policy under Technology Spillovers

We study climate policy when there are technology spillovers between countries, as there is no instrument that (directly) corrects for these externalities. Without an international climate agreement, the (non-cooperative) equilibrium depends on whether countries use tradable quotas or carbon taxes as their environmental policy instruments. All countries are better-off in the tax case than in the quota case. Two types of international climate agreements are then studied: One is a Kyoto type of agreement where each country is assigned a specific number of internationally tradable quotas. In the second type of agreement, a common carbon tax is used domestically in all countries. None of the cases satisfy the conditions for the social optimum. Even if the quota price is equal to the Pigovian level, R&D investments will be lower than what is socially optimal in the quota case. It is also argued that the quota agreement gives higher R&D expenditures and more abatement than the tax agreement.     

The Applicability of information-revealing incentive schemes in economic organizations

The applicability in centrally planned economies of bonus functions that are designed to encourage subordinates to report information honestly is evaluated. If central planners seek Pareto-efficient outcomes, a unique bonus function and therefore a unique distribution of managerial incomes results. Hence, income distribution considerations must be embodied directly in the objective function. However, once such a change in the objective function is introduced, an optimal bonus function can no longer be found.     

THE DESIGN OF A SELF-ENFORCING MULTILATERAL AGREEMENT AMONG OIL-lMPORTING COUNTRlES

When all parties to an agreement are subject to the laws of a single jurisdiction, then anyone breaking that agreement can be subjected to legal sanctions. If, however, parties to an agreement are themselves sovereign states, no external force exists to assure compliance. In such cases the design of an agreement must somehow provide an internal enforcement mechanism or the agreement is likely to be violated. An agreement is regarded as a specification of how each party will perform in any contingency which might arise. An agreement is called self-enforcing if it provides no country with an incentive to violate its terms as long as every other country complies. This paper considers the possibility of designing self-enforcing agreements among oil-importing nations to achieve the following goals: (1) to expand government or private stockpiles in preparation for the next disruption of crude imports; (2) to insure that no country will impose price controls should an embargo occur; (3) to share restricted oil supplies during an embargo; and (4) to restrain import demand during a crisis
The paper outlines how a self-enforcing agreement to increase world stockpiles can be designed. It indicates by example measures a county can take in advance to make subsequent imposition of price controls during a crisis disadvantageous. Such measures make credible a government's prior promise not to impose price controls. While a multilateral effort to restrain demand during an embargo would be worthwhile, no self-enforcing agreement seems possible. Finally, plans to redirect limited oil supplies by fiat during an oil crisis are criticized as unnecessary, inevitably ineffective, and a diversion of collective efforts from more pressing tasks. Such a sharing agreement is the focus of the existing International Energy Program (IEP) in which the United States and 20 other oil-importing nations participate     

Undominated Nash Implementation with Collusion and Renegotiation

This article looks at implementation in economic environments when agents have perfect information about the state of the world, but cannot commit not to renegotiate bad outcomes or to collude against each other. If renegotiation satisfies a weak condition of disagreement point monotonicity, then any Pareto-efficient social choice function can be implemented if there are at least three agents who play undominated Nash equilibria. The mechanism does not use modulo or integer games, has no bad mixed strategy equilibria, and is “bounded.”Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number: D71.     

On the existence of a strictly strong Nash equilibrium under the student-optimal deferred acceptance algorithm

This study analyzes a preference revelation game in the student-optimal deferred acceptance algorithm in a college admission problem. We assume that each college's true preferences are known publicly, and analyze the strategic behavior of students. We demonstrate the existence of a strictly strong Nash equilibrium in the preference revelation game through a simple algorithm that finds it. Specifically, (i) the equilibrium outcome from our algorithm is the same matching as in the efficiency-adjusted deferred acceptance algorithm and (ii) in a one-to-one matching market, it coincides with the student-optimal von Neumann–Morgenstern (vNM) stable matching. We also show that (i) when a strict core allocation in a housing market derived from a college admission market exists, it can be supported by a strictly strong Nash equilibrium, and (ii) there exists a strictly strong Nash equilibrium under the college-optimal deferred acceptance algorithm if and only if the student-optimal stable matching is Pareto-efficient for students.     

An Inframarginal Analysis of the Ricardian Model

This paper shows that a 2 × 2 Ricardian model has a unique general equilibrium, and the comparative statics of the equilibrium involve discontinuous jumps. If partial division of labor occurs in equilibrium, the country producing both goods would impose a tariff, whereas the country producing a single good would prefer unilateral free trade. If complete division of labor occurs in equilibrium, both countries would negotiate to achieve free trade. In a model with three countries, the country which does not have a comparative advantage relative to the other two countries, and/or which has low transaction efficiency, may be excluded from trade.     

Efficient Migration and Income Tax Competition

This paper examines the consequence of the brain drain for the income tax systems of the source and destination countries for the migration, if the two countries' policies are set noncooperatively by self–interested voters. It is assumed that the brain drain does increase the value of world output: workers with the highest income–earning ability are assumed to be more productive in one country than in another. There are costs to migration of these high–ability workers, costs that are less than the gain in the value of their production. However, for lower–ability workers, the gains in production in moving from the low–productivity country to the high–productivity country are assumed to be less than the migration costs. Voters in the high–productivity country want to capture rents from migrants. These voters are aware of the influence their tax policy has on people's migration decisions. Voters in the low–productivity country also behave strategically. I solve for the Nash equilibrium income tax rates. Increased mobility of highly skilled workers cannot decrease, and may increase, progressivity in the income tax system of the destination country, if migration actually occurs. Finally, the effects of transfers between countries on their income tax systems are examined. Redistribution between countries tends to lead to less redistribution within countries. If transfers between countries are set by a vote of all residents of both countries, then the transfer chosen will be the one that leads to the least progressive tax possible being chosen in each country.     

On the set of Pareto efficient allocations in economies with public goods

Summary We examine the set of Pareto-efficient allocations in economies with public goods. We show that even if preferences are continuous and strongly monotonic, it need not coincide with the set of weakly efficient allocations. We then study topological properties of the Pareto set. We show that it is neither connected nor closed in allocation space. Furthermore, if the public goods are local, the image of the Pareto set in utility space need not be closed or connected. We provide two independent sufficient conditions for the closedness of the Pareto set. The results are directly applicable to private goods economies with joint production. Our results should be of interest for general equilibrium and mechanism design theory; where for example, the properties of the efficient set are important for proving the existence of an equilibrium and for the study of the properties of monotone-path social choice correspondences.We thank Hideo Konishi, Tomoichi Shinotsuka, Nicholas Yannelis and an anonymous referee for valuable comments on previous drafts of this paper.     

Implementation of mechanism by processes: Public good allocation experiments

The design problem for decentralized public good provisions is outlined, hyothesized to be incomplete if the process, the informational logic of decisionreaching is left unspecified. Experiments with the incentive-compatible Deficit mechanism and two different processes, Smith and Seriatim, are reported. More failures to agree are found with the Smith process, but neither set of experiments supports a hypothesis of outcomes approximating the Pareto-efficient, Cournot-Nash equilibrium allocation. This is hypothesized to result from the failure of the Deficit mechanism to balance the budget.     

Income based price subsidies and parallel imports

We present a policy game where a Rich country has a higher ability than a Poor country to commit to certain elements of health policy such as providing income related price subsidies and allowing parallel imports (PI). When allowing PI is not a choice for the Poor country, the Rich country allows PI and both countries provide a subsidy to their poorer buyers as the subgame perfect equilibrium policies. However, when the Poor is able to PI a different equilibrium may arise. We show that the ability of the Poor to allow PI might increase welfare in this country even if it is never implemented. We also prove that as the Poor country gets richer, it will not be in their best interest to sign an agreement with the Rich to commit to not allowing PI.