A股税收客户群效应及除息日税负效应实证研究

本文分析了2002-2007年A股市场的纯现金红利分红数据,检验了这一期间在除息日套利的可能性,证实该期间市场存在除息日股价的税负效应,以及税收客户群效应.说明A股市场不同类的投资者对分红具有不同的偏好,上市公司应制定合适的股利政策以最大化股东财富.早期的关于国内市场的研究得到市场不存在税收客户群效应的结论,前后对比说明随着国内证券市场的发展,投资者更趋于理性.     

税负效应与除息日股票价格行为研究——来自A股市场的实证证据

本文基于我国A股市场相关数据对除息日股价行为的税负效应进行全面检验,实证结果表明股息和资本利得税率对除息日股价波动行为具有显著影响,税负效应理论存在于A股市场,但除息日股价波动行为不能完全由税负效应进行解释,另外实证研究还发现我国A股市场不存在税收诱导客户效应。     

中美资本市场财富效应比较研究

本文从股利支付和资本利得的角度对比分析了中美资本市场财富效应水平,并对其影响因素展开分析。研究发现,我国资本市场财富效应不够显著,A股上市公司虽然具有较高的股利支付倾向,但股利支付率和资本利得属性较弱;股利支付行为迎合监管动机较强,融资分红特征明显,股票股利支付行为具有高送转特征;资本市场估值中枢下移,指数波动性较高,资本利得属性较差。美股上市公司虽然股利支付意愿不及A股,但股利支付率和资本利得属性较强,且上市公司不存在明显的融资分红倾向。基于此,本文从控股股东属性、企业生命周期、管理层侵占行为、宏观经济和资本市场环境四个维度对A股市场财富效应水平展开深入探讨,并从提升公司质量、改善盈利能力、调整投资者结构、加强市场建设、优化股利监管制度五方面提出了改善我国资本市场财富效应的政策建议。     

A股与B股跨市场羊群效应:基于CCK模型的实证检验

各金融市场之间关联度越来越大,我国A股、B股市场的羊群效应亦可能相互传导。在学者们对金融市场羊群效应的研究基础上,进一步说明A股与B股跨市场羊群效应的产生机理,构建跨市场CCK模型以检验A股与B股跨市场羊群效应的存在性和不同市场条件下跨市场羊群效应的非对称性。实证检验发现,短期内跨市场羊群效应普遍存在;并且在市场收益率高、交易量大、波动性强时,跨市场羊群效应更加显著。     

股灾对A股市场日历效应的影响

ARCH模型对2014年7月至2017年6月上证综指日收益率的分析显示A股市场确实存在日历效应,并且日历效应在2015年股灾前后的表现并不一致。在股灾发生前A股市场存在正向的周一效应和正向的周五效应,而在股灾发生后转变为正向的周二效应和负向的周五效应。本文结合当时的市场环境和投资者心理对上述现象进行了解释。     

上市公司现金股利的信号传递效应实证

本文采用事件研究法对2009年至2014年间沪深两市A股上市公司现金股利支付水平较上一年度变化引起的股价波动进行实证分析,证明我国上市公司的现金股利具有信号传递效应。同时,上市公司现金股利变化导致的市场反应均显著为负,说明了我国投资者并不重视现金股利这一上市公司分红方式。     

A股公司分红政策演变

<正>分红政策是上市公司的市场行为，不同发展阶段的企业有着不同理念模式的分红政策。与此同时，在不同发展程度的市场，上市公司的分红行为及市场监管也存在较大差异。也就是说，上市公司分红政策是与一国国情及市场成熟度紧密关联的。自20世纪90年代初沪深交易所成立以来，我国监管层一直十分关注上市公司现金分红以及中小投资者权益保护，并将这一监管理念一以贯之。近三十年来，A股上市公司分红政策受监管指引，大体经历了三个阶段的演变过程。     

市场分割状态下红筹股回归A股的经济影响

市场分割其实是一种普遍现象。中国A股市场存在一定的泡沫,市场的大起大落以及可供上市的潜在资源相对匮乏,使得红筹股回归成为稳定市场的选择之一。通过对红筹股回归产生的经济效应的分析表明:红筹股回归将增加投资者的投资品种,有助于提升A股投资者的福利水平;由于A股市场普遍溢价于H股市场,红筹股回归的IPO定价可能会高于其原红筹股价格,因而可能存在财富从A股投资者向红筹股投资者转移的现象。     

今年你分红了没?

目前国内对于强制上市公司分红的呼声越来越高,这反映了投资者对于管理层和大股东的不信任,或者说他们认为公司再投资已经没有发展的前景。贵州茅台(600519)日前发布的年报中,披露了今年的分红方案——将以10股送1股派23元(含税),由此创下了A股现金分红史上的新纪录。     

信息不对称对股票回购宣告效应的影响--基于A股市场公开市场回购事件的实证研究

本文以2011-2017年间发生在我国A股市场的公开市场回购事件为样本,探究了管理层与投资者之间信息不对称程度对股票回购宣告效应的影响。结果表明:上市公司可以通过公开市场回购取得显著正向的宣告效应,该效应与上市公司的信息不对称程度成正比,与既有估值水平成反比。这说明信息不对称程度对股票回购宣告效应具有较强的解释力,验证了"信号传递假说"在A股市场的适用性。     

The Effect of Cum- to Ex-Dividend Changes on UK Share Prices

The price behaviour of a share at the time of its going ex-dividend presents an intriguing observable. Previous authors have argued that the statistic is indicative of ‘shareholder rationality’. This is to say, if shareholders ‘rationally' capitalise their dividends received on an after personal tax basis, the change in the price of a share on its going ex-dividend should be a well-defined function of shareholders’ assessment of their own personal tax brackets. In turn this would substantiate the ‘clientele effect’ hypothesis whereby shareholders with high income/low capital gain tax brackets hold shares with high growth companies, and shareholders with low income/high capital gain tax brackets hold shares with low-growth companies. Our statistical analysis provides evidence of the clientele effect in the UK stock market.     

中国股票市场上的“隔夜效应”和“午间效应”研究

我国目前关于非交易时期信息对股市影响的研究多集中在"周末效应"和"节日效应"上,而缺少对其他非交易时期的研究。针对这一现状,本文在定义了"午间效应"和"隔夜效应"之后,使用交叠样本法和ARMA—GARCH模型对深沪两市上的午间休市和晚间休市对股票收益率的影响进行了实证分析。研究发现:深沪两市均存在持续稳定的"隔夜效应";同时,在某些年份,两市存在显著的"午间效应",但这种效应不具有持续稳定的特性,而是随着样本期选择的不同而变化的特征。使用5分钟数据进行的抽样频率稳健性检验与上述结论基本一致,证明了本文结论具有较好的稳定性。     

Tax Clientele Effects in the Term Structure of UK Interest Rates

This paper tests for tax clientele effects in the term structure of UK interest rates. Five empirical models of the term structure of interest rates, incorporating tax effects, are estimated with daily data covering the period 31 March, 1995 to 3 August, 1995. In May 1995, the British government announced its intention to eliminate the tax exemption on capital gains from government bonds, but subsequently in July 1995 backtracked on some of its initial proposals. This period therefore forms the basis of a crude natural experiment in the sense that it provides an opportunity to examine tax clientele effects 'before' and 'after' an event which should have levelled greatly the taxing of government bonds. The empirical analysis suggests large tax clientele effects. However, there is little evidence of tax-specific term structures of interest rates.     

Changes to Income Trust Taxation in Canada: Investor Reaction and Dividend Clientele Theory

Abstract:  This paper explores the relationship between tax-induced dividend clientele theory and the recent changes to the taxation of income trusts in Canada. On October 31, 2006, the Canadian government announced the Tax Fairness Plan ( TFP ) calling for the elimination of the considerable tax advantage enjoyed by income trusts. Generally, distributions from income trusts are now taxed at rates comparable to those imposed on corporate dividends. We examine market reaction to the  TFP  to address three issues: first, whether the valuation effect of a dividend tax increase is consistent with the traditional or the new view of dividend taxation; secondly, whether the market reaction to tax increases has a differential impact on firm value that is related to the tax preferences of taxable, tax-exempt, and foreign investor tax clienteles; and thirdly, whether firms change their dividend policies in response to the preference of institutional investors (tax-based dividend policy effect) or whether institutional investors are sorting themselves across firms based on their dividend policies (investor sorting effect). Our results provide strong evidence as follows. First, the valuation effect in reaction to the  TFP  announcement is consistent with the traditional view of dividend taxation – i.e. that taxes on dividends reduce the net return to investors, increase the firm's cost of capital and lower the firm's ability to access capital markets, thereby discouraging investment and savings. Secondly, we saw that trusts with a larger percentage of their units held by tax-exempt, low-tax, and foreign investors had a higher decline in value when compared with trusts held mostly by ordinary taxable investors. These results support dividend tax clientele theory. Finally, we observed changes in institutional investor clienteles consistent with the investor sorting effect.     

Factors Influencing Interest Rates on Delinquent Property Tax Certificates

This study examines the market for delinquent property tax certificates, a commonly used enforcement mechanism in property tax systems around the United States. We model the value of such certificates using a continuous-time framework and propose a statistical model that allows testing for factors that affect interest rates charged by investors who purchase the certificates as investment instruments. Using sample data from tax certificate sales in Florida from 1982 to 2000, we find that interest rates on certificates are negatively and significantly related to assessed property value and homestead status, and positively related to local ownership. We find an inverse relationship between interest rates and the number of certificates purchased by the certificate investor, indicating a significant clientele effect in this market. We also find that the implied effective tax rate is positively related to the interest rates charged by investors. Overall, the findings provide insight into the function of this unique market niche.     

证券流转税:现状分析、国际趋势与改革思路

我国目前的证券税制以证券交易印花税为主体税种。从长远来看,我国应逐步完善证券流转税制,实行证券交易税和印花税兼征制度。改革我国的证券流转税,在证券交易环节用证券交易税代替印花税,不能仅限于更名,而应有实质性的改变。     

Tax Coordination and Unemployment

This paper analyses the implications of unemployment for fiscal competition and tax coordination among small open economies. Unemployment is modeled as resulting from wage bargaining. The analysis focuses on the effect of labour and capital tax coordination on welfare. We show that, while coordinated capital and labour tax increases unambiguously raise welfare if labour markets are competitive, different results emerge if labour markets are unionised. It turns out that coordinated capital and labour tax increases may reduce welfare. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

证券交易税对证券市场和财政收入的影响分析

各国和地区设置证券交易税的政策目标在于降低股票价格的不稳定性和增加政府的财政收入。为检验上述政策目标能否实现,本文对美国、瑞典、英国、日本、韩国、中国香港、中国台湾几个重要的证券市场进行了分析,得出结论:各国和地区设置证券交易税的政策目标很难实现。     

The intended and unintended consequences of financial-market regulations: A general-equilibrium analysis

In a production economy with trade in financial markets motivated by the desire to share labor-income risk and to speculate, we show that speculation increases volatility of asset returns and investment growth, increases the equity risk premium, and reduces welfare. Regulatory measures, such as constraints on stock positions, borrowing constraints, and the Tobin tax have similar effects on financial and macroeconomic variables. However, borrowing constraints and the Tobin tax are more successful than constraints on stock positions at improving welfare because they substantially reduce speculative trading without impairing excessively risk-sharing trades.